Offseason Notes
This edition of Offseason Notes has the good face. It’s a fact!
SCOUT Batting Leaderboard
The Leaderboard
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Arizona Fall League. (Click here for more on SCOUT, the metric that’s “sweeping” the “nation.”)
Notable Changes
Nate Tenbrink, N/A to 9th. Tenbrink is, according to the Good Guys Sports Blog, “pretty similar to Alex Liddi in skills, but minus the Italian-ness” — which, that’s no fun. He’s in the Mariner organization.
SCOUT Pitching Leaderboard
The Leaderboard
Same verse, very similar to the first.
Notable Changes
• Mike McClendon, N/A to 9th. McLendon, property of the Milwaukee Beer Makers, actually pitched for the parent club this season. Voila: 21.0 IP, 9.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 46.4% GB, 3.38 xFIP. He’s most notable for featuring a quick pitch, an example of which you can see in the video below. (It’s the second pitch he throws.)
• Travis Banwart, N/A to 10th. An Oakland farmhand, Banwart is notable for being only one of four pitchers on the leaderboard to have pitched predominantly as a starter this fall. On the other hand, Prospect Maven Bryan Smith has written in these very pages that Banwart doesn’t so much profile a Major League pitcher.
Another Country Heard From, Literally (Dominican League)
Batting Leaderboard
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League.
Notes
• Matt Mcbridelikes his work behind the plate, so it’s possible he’s more catcher than DH. Also, he’s always posted K rates on the right side of 20% in the minors.
• Peter Bourjos ranks 33rd out of 41 batters by SCOUT. Of course, his real tool — i.e. defensive range — isn’t accounted for here, at all.
• Carlos Gomez ranks 40th out of 41 batters. The same disclaimer for Bourjos applies to Gomez, although 12 K in 45 PA in Dominican League isn’t encouraging.
Pitching Leaderboard
Same as above, but for pitchers.
Notes
• Fabio Castro is (a) very clearly having a great fall and (b) a tiny little guy, just 5-7 and 183 by his player page. Per John Sickels, his fastball doesn’t much approach 90 mph.
• Yunesky Maya throws an aesthetically pleasing slider. That’s not, of course, to say that it’s effective.
• Charlie Morton last season: 79.2 IP, 7.57 ERA, 4.26 xFIP.
Projections: ZiPS for Oakland
Beloved Pole Dan Szymborski has published his ZiPS projections for Oakland. Here are some of the notable ones (all numbers assume major league competition):
• Daric Barton, 25, 1B: .258/.369/.400, 108 OPS+. He’s their best hitter — relative to position, at least.
• Michael Taylor, 25, RF: .256/.319/.395, 92 OPS+. Both Szymborski and his computer are worried about Taylor’s contact skills.
• Brett Anderson, 23, LHP: 23 G, 23 GS, 126.7 IP, 12 HR, 33 K, 101 K, 4.12 ERA, 100 ERA+.
• Dallas Braden, 27 , LHP: 29 G, 26 GS, 165.0 IP, 17 HR, 43 K, 103 K, 4.09 ERA, 101 ERA+. This one’s a little weird, as it looks not as good — the components, that is — they look not as good as Anderson’s.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Carson, I think you meant 4.26 FIP for Charlie Morton there. Also, is that a Julian Tavarez sighting? He’s going to pitch (somewhere) forever, I think.
Thank you. Much appreciated.
And with regard to Tavarez, that absolute appears to be him. Only 37, is Tavarez, according to his profile. Younger than I would’ve thought.
Thanks Yoda
Maybe I’m just dumb as a rock or something (I appreciate and can embrace stats without fully understanding how they are devised), but I don’t really get why it is that a player’s SCOUT score changes when he hasn’t played. I’m looking specifically at Mike Montgomery, who hasn’t pitched since the first SCOUT pitching leaderboard was put up on 11/3. His SCOUT was .17. Next day .18. On 11/8 it’s .16, and now today it’s .20. What am I missing here?
tbr –
It’s entirely possible that you’re dumb as a rock — I can’t speak to that one way or another — but it’s not because you don’t understand the SCOUT numbers, as the concept is a slightly tricky one.
The SCOUT numbers are z-scores — that is, standard deviations from the mean. Even if he’s inactive, Montgomery’s SCOUT will change if either (a) the size of a standard deviation changes or (b) the mean changes. So, one or the other (or both) of those things is happening.
If he continues not to pitch, he’ll drop off the leaderboard from failing to reach the innings limit. But you’re right, it seems like it’s been since Oct 29th since he threw at all.
I am actually really enjoying SCOUT because it allows me to be dumb as rock and not obsess over rate stats, “advanced” stats, and such. Since it’s the winter leagues I really don’t need to sweat the details. I just look at the list and note that so-and-so is doing a mighty fine job. Of course, this is really no different than you just writing “Al Albuquerque is God”, but at least it’s a list and we get to pretend it’s official. Nice work, Carson!
Thanks, Carson, I thought it was something like that, but needed to be led by the hand.
(And actually, most people think I’m NOT dumb as a rock! But I have never had a statistics class in my life.)
It sure would be nice if the player’s team affiliation was listed next to their name.
I would heartily second this.
Radhames Liz was every bit the poor man’s Daniel Cabrera, at least as far as the way Baltimoreans viewed him. Dunno how they stacked up statistically, but they were heartbreakers
I’m assuming the first “K” for the Oakland pitchers is Walks or something.