Offseason Notes for October 18th

by
October 18, 2011


Everyone’s very excited about the release of ZiPS Minor League Translations.

Today’s edition of Offseason Notes contains the following:

1. An Announcement re: ZiPS Minor League Translations
2. A Hastily Made zMLE Batting Leaderboard
3. SCOUT Batting Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League
4. SCOUT Pitching Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League

An Announcement re: ZiPS Minor League Translations
What the Announcement Is, Specifically
The announcement regarding ZiPS Minor League Translations (zMLEs), specifically, is that they (i.e. zMLEs) are now available at Baseball Think Factory.

What zMLEs Are
ZiPS MLEs are the translations of minor-league stats to their major-league equivalents used by Dan Szymborski in his ZiPS projections.

Where zMLEs Are
ZiPS MLEs are located here.

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A Thing You Need to Know
A think you need to know is that the file to which Szymborski links is an RAR file and you’ll need to unpack it — with WinRAR or some other similar program.

A Hastily Made zMLE Batting Leaderboard
Unnecessary Bold Heading
Below is a hastily made batting leaderboard using zMLEs. Note that I merely estimated wOBA — using (OBP * 1.75 + SLG) / 3 — and, therefore, Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA).

Name		Org	LV	Age	AB	wOBA*	wRAA*
P. Goldschmidt	ARI	AA	23	391	.373	21.0
Taylor Green	MIL	AAA	24	435	.358	15.9
Bryan LaHair	CHN	AAA	28	474	.355	15.9
Ryan Lavarnway	BOS	AAA	23	236	.369	11.3
Devin Mesoraco	CIN	AAA	23	445	.348	12.2
C-H Chiang	BOS	AA	23	331	.355	10.9
James Darnell	SD	AA	24	301	.352	9.7
Brett Lawrie	TOR	AAA	21	301	.352	9.2
Yonder Alonso	CIN	AAA	24	366	.346	9.3
Wily Mo Pena    ARI	AAA	29	247	.355	8.2

SCOUT Batting Leaderboard
The Leaderboard
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Arizona Fall League. (Click here for more on SCOUT.)

Name Org SCOUT Kz xK% HRz xHR% PA AVG OBP SLG BABIP
Ro. Grossman PIT 0.34 0.40 16.4% 0.29 3.3% 59 .365 .441 .654 .366
J. Cunningham PIT 0.27 0.30 17.1% 0.23 3.2% 38 .235 .308 .588 .185
Nolan Arenado COL 0.27 0.54 15.4% 0.00 2.5% 41 .375 .381 .525 .378
Jedd Gyorko SD 0.25 0.25 17.5% 0.25 3.2% 30 .393 .433 .714 .364
Corban Joseph NYA 0.20 0.29 17.3% 0.12 2.8% 37 .212 .297 .455 .185
A. Castellanos STL 0.19 0.14 18.3% 0.24 3.2% 34 .379 .471 .828 .381
Brian Dozier MIN 0.18 0.36 16.7% 0.00 2.5% 41 .368 .419 .500 .394
Ma. Dominguez FLA 0.17 0.20 17.9% 0.14 2.9% 32 .357 .424 .607 .364
Wilfredo Tovar NYN 0.15 0.40 16.4% -0.09 2.2% 33 .267 .333 .367 .286
Josh Vitters CHN 0.13 0.14 18.3% 0.12 2.8% 39 .405 .425 .649 .448

Notes
The degree to which he’s capable of controlling the strike zone will likely determine the degree to which Pittsbirgh infield prospect Jarek Cunningham is able to succeed at the major-league level. With just four strikeouts (and four walks, too) in his 38 AFL plate appearances, Cunningham has looked sharp. This year at High-A Bradenton, however, the 21-year-old posted a 23.6% strikeout rate, versus only a 4.9% walk rate — almost identical to what he produced in 2010 at Low-A West Virginia. It’s very possible that Cunningham’s development was delayed from missing all of 2009 with an ACL tear. In any event, the power is interesting: Cunningham hit 15 homers this season in just 348 plate appearances while playing in a mostly neutral park.

SCOUT Pitching Leaderboard
The Leaderboard
Same verse, very similar to the first.

Name Org SCOUT K9z xK9 K9 BB9z xBB9 BB9 G GS IP BF
Kevin Munson ARI 0.22 0.39 9.2 18.0 0.05 3.9 0.0 5 0 5.0 20
Bradley Boxberger CIN 0.20 0.41 9.2 16.2 0.00 4.1 4.4 5 0 6.2 26
Jacob Petricka CHA 0.15 0.30 8.8 14.4 0.01 4.1 3.6 4 0 5.0 24
Josh Wall LAN 0.15 0.27 8.8 13.5 0.03 4.0 1.8 5 0 5.1 25
Stephen Fife LAN 0.14 0.31 8.9 11.2 -0.02 4.2 4.9 3 3 9.2 49
Chris Carpenter CHN 0.14 0.25 8.7 14.3 0.03 4.0 1.7 4 0 5.2 21
Bryan Woodall ARI 0.13 0.20 8.5 12.0 0.06 3.9 0.0 4 0 6.0 25
Steve Johnson BAL 0.11 0.21 8.5 12.0 0.02 4.0 3.0 2 2 6.0 26
Forrest Snow SEA 0.09 0.13 8.3 10.4 0.04 3.9 1.1 4 1 8.2 27
Nick Schmidt SD 0.08 0.27 8.7 11.6 -0.10 4.4 9.0 3 2 7.0 38

Notes
Even though he conceded three homers and seven total runs in just three innings Monday night, Dodger minor-leaguer Stephen Fife, 25, has managed the best SCOUT number so far among AFL starters. Consider, for example, that five of the six batted-balls outs he induced were by ground ball — a ratio consistent with his first two AFL starts. Consider, also, that he’s struck out 12 of the 49 batters he’s faced (i.e. 24.5%). John Sickels notes that the fastball is decent and of the sinking variety, but that the secondary stuff is unspectacular.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

4 Comments
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JSprech
14 years ago

These sample sizes are beyond tiny… can you really give the numbers any weight?

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Carson CistulliMember
14 years ago
Reply to  JSprech

You’re right to be concerned about drawing unnecessarily strong conclusions from a limited sample.

In this case, however, we’re giving these numbers the exact right amount of weight. I’ve regressed each of the four stats — batter strikeout and home-run rate, pitcher strikeout and walk rate — back to league average for every plate appearance between the batter/pitcher’s current amount and the amount at which each respective stat becomes reliable. (Or, becomes reliable in the major leagues, at least. It COULD be different in the AFL.)

What we’re really looking at is stats that correlate, to some degree, with “tools” — the ability to make contact, to hit for power, etc. Players are not merely the sum of their tools, of course. On the other hand, it’s possible to derive SOME kind of meaning from the AFL numbers — just as long as we practice restraint. (And citing these numbers is still better than citing a player’s slash line from the AFL.)

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