One Night Only!

Note: As reader Tim points out, Jair Jurrjens has been scratched tonight and will be replaced by MLB debutant Brandon Beachy, who’s done this through 45.2 Triple-A IP this season: 9.46 K/9, 1.18 BB/9, 0.39 HR/9, 2.19 FIP. A couple months ago, gondee over at Talking Chop asked the question, “Is this guys for reals?” You can read his answer here.

This edition of One Night Only will give you neither answers nor the truth.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Cincinnati (7) at Milwaukee (9) | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Reds: Homer Bailey (7)
91.0 IP, 7.62 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, .316 BABIP, 40.7% GB, 8.5% HR/FB, 4.18 xFIP, 1.6 WAR

Brewers: Chris Capuano (4)
50.1 IP, 7.51 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, .286 BABIP, 42.3% GB, 11.9% HR/FB, 4.04 xFIP, 0.3 WAR

Notes
• A reader — somewhere, sometime, writing from one of these towns that people are always living in — asked about the Brewers’ NERD and why it was so high. That’s a good question. Here are the reasons. For one, they’re actually the fourth-best team in the majors per park-adjusted weighted runs above average (wRAA), with +63.9. That mark places them first among National League teams. So that’s one thing. Another is this: the Brewers are third-best, behind Toronto and Boston, in park-adjusted HR/FB. So, that’s the second thing: they hit homers. Finally, the Brewers have been unlucky offensively. Before play on Sunday, they’d scored only 676 runs, but had recorded 702 Base Runs. NERD gives up to a 2.00-point bonus for (bad) luck (using the formula (Runs – Base Runs)/-10), and the Brewers are beneficiaries of said bonus right now. Without it, they’d still have a NERD score of 7, but wouldn’t be reaching their current lofty heights.
• Some people in this world have gone their whole lives without once seeing Juan Francisco take an at-bat. Luckily, you can do that tonight, as the free-swinging Dominican will almost definitely make at least a pinch-hit appearance this evening. In 320 PAs at Triple-A Louisville this season, Francisco slashed .286/.325/.565 with a .332 BABIP. StatCorner has him with a 114 wOBA+, which means that Francisco was above-average in the International League.
• Hey, observe what Homer Bailey’s done since his return from the DL in mid-August: 40.1 IP, 36 K, 12 BB, 2 HR. That’s a FIP of like 2.95 or so.

Other Notes
Tampa Bay (10) at New York Americans (7), 7:05pm ET
• This game is effectively meaningless, as, per Cool Standings, each team has better than a 99% chance of making the playoffs. Still, Ivan Nova’s starting for the Yankees. His NERD (6) has dropped in recent starts, but he still features a changepiece that many of our West Coast brothers and sisters wouldn’t hesitate to call “gnar-gnar.”

Texas (7) at Los Angeles Americans (1), 8:10pm ET
• I don’t know a ton about pitching mechanics — and, specifically, the sort of terminology one might employ to appear knowledgeable about such a thing — but I know that Jered Weaver seems to have a particularly efficient-looking wind-up. Specifically, he seems adept at contorting his mid-section in such a way — by sort of turning his torso plate-ward and “leading” with his chest — as to give his arm quite a bit of “whip.” Anyway, he’s had an excellent season (204.0 IP, 3.50 xFIP) despite possessing a fastball that’s just barely averaged 90 mph. Moreover, his curve (+2.23 per 100 thrown) and change (+1.66) are both excellent by our pitch-type linear weights.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Estimated NERD