One Night Only: Games for Weekend of June 10th
Zack Greinke holds a press conference in front of a forest fire.
This edition of One Night Only contains:
1. Expanded previews for six games — including two with Charlie Blackmon.
2. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of this weekend’s games — now arranged by time and hopefully more accurate.
3. Hella aplomb.
Friday, June 10th
Oakland (1) at Chicago Americans (2) | 20:10 ET
• Oaklander Graham Godfrey, 26, makes his major-league debut tonight, pitching for the A’s.
• Godfrey this season, in nine Triple-A starts: 50.1 IP, 8.05 K/9, 2.50 BB/9, 0.36 HR/9, 3.06 FIP.
• Brent Lillibridge Watch: 101 PA, .282/.374/.588 (.309 BABIP, .256 xBABIP), .408 wOBA, 157 wRC+, 1.2 WAR.
Los Angeles Nationals (3) at Colorado (7) | 20:40 ET
• Read about Jhoulys Chacin’s unexpectedly high ground-ball rate here.
• Charlie Blackmon Watch: 11 PA, 0 BB, 1 K, 6 GB, 4 BIA (Balls in Air).
• Dee Gordon Watch: 13 PA, 0 BB, 4 K, 3 GB, 5 BIA, 1 BU (Bunt Hit), 1-1 SB.
Saturday, June 11th
Chicago Nationals (0) at Philadelphia (2) | 16:10 ET
• Matt Garza (10) faces Cliff Lee (also 10).
• Question: Is Shane Victorino the most interesting field player (with more than 100 PA) in this game?
• Because that’s what Player NERD says.
St. Louis (5) at Milwaukee (8) | 19:10 ET
• Here’s Zack Greinke’s (10) line, just in from Stupid Town: 41.0 IP, 11.20 K/9. 1.54 BB/9, 38.5% GB, 2.08 xFIP, 56 xFIP-.
• Here’re Greinke’s ranks among the 147 pitchers with 40+ innings: K/9, 1st; BB/9, 9th; xFIP, 1st.
• Here’s a picture of Greinke giving a press conference in front of a forest fire. (Above, in case you didn’t see.)
Sunday, June 12th
Los Angeles Nationals (3) at Colorado (7) | 15:10 ET
• Rubby De La Rosa, in his first major-league start: 5.0 IP, 23 TBF, 4 K, 5 BB, 8 GB on 14 batted-balls (57.1%).
• Four of those five walks came in the first two innings.
• Ubaldo Jimenez (6) in two June starts: 16.0 IP, 57 TBF, 15 K, 0 BB, 52.4% GB, 1.92 xFIP.
Washington (5) at San Diego (5) | 16:05 ET
• Tim Stauffer (7), ace pitcher? Line: 78.0 IP, 7.27 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 52.3% GB, 3.06 xFIP, 82 xFIP-.
• San Diego prospect Anthony Rizzo, major-league debut (6/9): 4 PA, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 BIA.
• Michael Morse, home runs per game (over last 16 games): 0.4375.
Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you. (All probables taken directly from MLB.com.)
Friday:
Saturday:
Sunday:
pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD of 5 (or 10 for debuts)
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Merci Mr Cistulli pour la carte complete du week end.
c est un gros travail.
a noter pour vendredi / friday :
BEDARD ( sea ) 4 @ 5 @ 6………..j aime !
MORTON ( pit) 3 @ 4 @ 5…………charlie , encore , encore…..
WOOD ( cin ) 8 @ 7 @ 6 @ 5…….quelle descente!
a . RODRIGUEZ ( hou ) 5* @ 3 @ 2………beurk !
JOJO REYES ( tor ) 4 @ 3 @ 2 ………la chute libre
Regarding Ubaldo’s June: ‘Uh-oh, looks like Happy learned how to putt’
Is Ubaldo actually pitching better or are his stats getting better because his last 2 starts have been against two bad offensive teams?
Both. His velocity has been up and he hasn’t been walking people – which would happen against good and poor offenses a like (because his control before was atrocious). It seems more legit than just poor offenses but they definitely haven’t hurt things…
Lucky Ubaldo then huh. He plays in the NL West which means most nights he’ll be against a bad offensive team. I know this is a stats oriented site but I did pitch even just in high school, confidence means a lot. Good starts, even against bad offensive teams will help him turn it around.
How can Greinke have such a great peripheral line but a shit ERA? It’s not like it was one game that did it in for him, his runs allowed are 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 2, 4. Not really a single dominant performance, his best is 2 earned runs in 7 innings. 5 of those 7 starts have been less than 7 innings. The average runs scored per game in the NL is 4.1, he has an ERA of over 4.10 in 3 of his 7 starts.
Obviously the chances of his ERA at the end of the year will be better than it is now, but what is going on here? Bad luck on balls hit?
I think giving up home runs (high Hr/9 and Hr/FB) and low LOB% is what is killing him. .346 BABIP probably is part of it too.
the home runs would drive high FIP up, so I’m not positive it’s the HR, even though thy’re bad. Maybe the .346 BABIP means he’s unlucky. Or maybe he either strikes a guy out or they crush him. Like the pitching version of how dunn used to be as a hitter.
You are right about the home runs driving up his FIP; that’s also why his xFIP is lower than FIP. It was just my impression he was getting hit with lots of 2+ run home runs. That goes back to the strand rate, which is well below league average, especially for how many he strikes out.
I should say his career average (72%), not league average.
Is strand rate something luck based or would it show something about the player? Tim Hudson’s performance is worse than last year and the one thing that really sticks out is his strand rate. I think maybe guys with higher strand rates as a year before either had a better defense behind them, or are leaving the ball up more than before.
The impression that I get from Greinke so far is that he’s stubborn, but has incredible stuff and his ERA should start lowering very soon. Sometimes it’s not the worst thing in the world to walk a guy, and when I watched him vs Pittsburgh, he seemed to get so frustrated with guys on base that he’d just keep firing his fastball down the middle. He’s going to have plenty more great games, but he’ll also have some rough ones because he doesn’t seem to care about giving up hits.
Came for the previews, stayed for the Greinke photoshop.
My theory on FIP is that there are some pitchers you can absolutely predict future performance on based on FIP, and others you can’t. A guy like Tom Glavine, who doesn’t strike out a lot of guys, and doen’t mind nibbling his way to a lot of walks pretty much consistently had a FIP higher than his ERA. He just didn’t pitch to the stat.
Greinke I think might be one guy who FIP predicts well. He’s not what I would necessarily call a “crafty cerebral” pitcher.
Shane Victorino doesn’t always drink beer, but when he does, he drinks Dos Equis.