Orioles Run All Day, Run All Night

Coming into 2023, the biggest question concerning major league baseball was how the past offseason’s rule changes would impact style of play. For example, would bigger bases and restrictions on pickoff plays tilt the balance of the game in favor of basestealers? If so, by how much? And would offenses, coming off a period of historic league-wide reluctance to run, take advantage?

Enter the Orioles, who in the first weekend of the season came over all Pink Floyd and ran like hell. Baltimore stole 10 bases in the first two games of the season, and though the team settled down on Sunday and did not attempt a stolen base in the series finale, its runners had already done impressive damage: This was the first time in 10 years that any team had stolen 10 bases over two consecutive nine-inning games. The Orioles also became the first team to hit double figures in the first two games of a season; the previous record, nine, had been set by the 1976 Reds and 1983 Dodgers in the stimulants-and-Astroturf era of baseball, when stolen bases were commonplace.

So what got into the Orioles? And if they can go 10-for-10 on stolen bases in two games, why can’t everyone else?

The two major arguments against stealing bases aggressively have to do with risk. First is the risk of injury, either acutely by blowing a hamstring on acceleration or by breaking a finger sliding into the bag, or as a matter of wear and tear by adding dozens more abrupt starts and stops to a player’s workload.

That’s one reason we don’t usually see great hitters run the bases with abandon. Mike Trout stole 49 bases in 54 attempts as a rookie but attempted just one stolen base in 2022. And it’s not like he got slower; he still had 95th percentile speed last year. He’s just choosing not to run. And while his decision to abandon the running game doesn’t line up perfectly with tearing a thumb ligament on a slide in 2017 — he stole 20-plus bases that year and the year after — it’d be odd if that injury hadn’t made him more conservative on the bases in the long run.

Second is the risk of making an unnecessary out. Baseball managers — coaches in all sports, to be honest — have overestimated risk since the beginning of recorded history, but “playing the percentages” usually just means “playing it safe.” That leads to rules of thumb, such as “don’t make the first or third out at third base” or “don’t steal with a good hitter at the plate,” that reduce opportunities to steal.

That’s despite the fact that over the past 25 years, basestealers have gotten more efficient than ever. The break-even rate for stolen bases varies by base-out state and numerous other factors, but on the aggregate, players are getting their money’s worth out of stolen base attempts.

But instead of taking advantage of their newfound efficiency and pressing the advantage, teams have become more timid. In 1998, the last time MLB expanded, there were 4,789 stolen base attempts league-wide, a figure that rose to nearly 5,000 the following year. In 2021, that number fell under 3,000 for the first time in a full season in the 30-team era.

Last season’s Orioles were fairly good on the basepaths. Jorge Mateo and Cedric Mullins were first and second in the AL in stolen bases, and the team as a whole was fifth in MLB in baserunning runs above average. But all Orioles apart from Mullins and Mateo stole just 26 bases put together, and Baltimore ranked just 13th in steals overall.

Still, there are incentives for the O’s to be more aggressive than most teams. First, their lineup is deeper than it would seem on first glance, but it doesn’t have the kind of star power that would prevent, say, Trent Grisham from taking liberties on the bases when Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, and Manny Machado are the next three batters up. Nevertheless, six of Baltimore’s stolen bases came with either Mullins, Gunnar Henderson, or Adley Rutschman at the plate. (Though there are mitigating circumstances around those.)

Second, the injury concern. The Orioles do have position players they can’t afford to lose. But Rutschman runs like he’s wearing lead pants; he’s not going to steal many bases no matter what. Mullins derives much of his value from his legs; if he went from a 30-steal guy to a no-steal guy, he would no longer be irreplaceable. Henderson is the wild card; he did not attempt to steal over the weekend, but he’s a plus runner who swiped 22 bags in 25 attempts in the minors last year. If the Orioles remain aggressive on the bases this season, it’ll be interesting to see how much rope manager Brandon Hyde gives his star rookie.

Once the Orioles started running on Opening Day, they did an exceptional job of picking their spots. Not only were the Orioles perfect in 10 attempts, but only one of them — Mateo to third base at the front end of a double steal in the second inning of Saturday’s game — was even remotely close. Out of the nine basestealing plays they attempted (including that double steal), Reese McGuire only managed to get a throw off three times.

Some of that success was the result of the element of surprise. In addition to the double steal, the Orioles started the trail runner with runners at the corners twice on Thursday. Ryan McKenna also stole a base two pitches after being hit in the knee.

McGuire is usually pretty good at controlling the running game: before the Orioles pantsed him 10 times in two games, he’d thrown out 31% of opposing basestealers in his big league career. Chris Sale has barely pitched in the 2020s, but in the prime of his career he was also usually good at controlling the running game. But that tandem gave up four stolen bases in a two-inning span on Saturday because the Orioles found favorable situations in which to run.

The Orioles stole half their bases off Boston’s starters, Sale and Corey Kluber. All five of those attempts came with the batter behind in the count 0–1 or 0–2. The Orioles stole three bases off a pair of 0–2 sliders in the dirt from Sale, plus another on a fastball later in the inning. The base Mateo stole off Kluber came on an 0–1 cutter that broke in on Mullins; McGuire ended up reaching across his body to catch the ball behind Mullins’ legs, an almost impossible position from which to throw.

Other attempts were less surprising. On Thursday, the Orioles stole bases on three consecutive plate appearances against Ryan Brasier, against whom basestealers were 7-for-7 in 2022. All of them came off fastballs early in the count, but Brasier did little if anything to keep the runners close. Adam Frazier danced off first base like Willie Mays Hays and still didn’t get Brasier’s attention. And in the ninth inning on Saturday, Austin Hays stole a base off Kenley Jansen, who has allowed 97 stolen bases in 104 attempts in the regular season in his career. If you haven’t stolen a base off Jansen, you may be entitled to financial compensation.

Nothing about any specific stolen base stands out as noteworthy. The Orioles picked on a couple pitchers who struggle to hold runners. Other times, they pounced when the count suggested a breaking ball in the dirt was coming. It doesn’t hurt that Mullins and Mateo are two of the best basestealers in the league and would be comfortable exploiting any small advantage they could uncover. It also bears mentioning that between walks, hits, hit batters, and errors, the Orioles had 46 baserunners on Thursday and Saturday, giving them ample opportunity to test Boston’s battery.

What differentiates Baltimore’s weekend from the normal course of events? Every stolen base attempt comes with an implied wager that something about the current situation favors the basestealer. Maybe the pitcher is slow to the plate, or the baserunner has him timed, or a curveball is likely to be the next pitch. Maybe it’s all three. But basestealers don’t put their chips down every time the odds favor them; the more they run, the more their opponent will keep them close the next time on base, and the worse off they’ll be the next time they try to steal.

Not the Orioles. They ran whenever they saw an opportunity — three batters in a row, at one point. Over a long enough timeline, that aggressiveness would probably come back to bite them. But if there were ever a time to ramp the chaos meter up to maximum, it would be now, in the first weekend of competitive action with a new rule set. The game hasn’t changed hardly at all for basestealers, but pitchers are still adjusting to not being able to hold the ball or spend endless pickoff throws to keep the runner honest. Best to take advantage before they figure things out.