NERD Game Scores for June 13, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Detroit | 19:10 ET
Greinke (84.0 IP, 70 xFIP-) vs. Farmer (13.0 IP, 62 xFIP-)
Whatever the qualities that draw one to a particular athletic contest, it’s almost certain that one of them is the prospect of seeing that which one has never seen before. This contest between Arizona and Detroit offers such an opportunity — namely, to observe as right-hander Buck Farmer starts a game having recorded one of the best pitching lines in the majors. Over two starts and 13.0 innings, Farmer has recorded strikeout and walk rates of 34.8% and 6.5%, respectively, a 62 xFIP-, and about a single win above replacement, whether calculated by means of FIP or ERA. This is both improbable and reality.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

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The Making of Tommy Kahnle

CLEVELAND — Tommy Kahnle is persistent.

The visiting clubhouse at Progressive Field features an arcade-style video-game machine that allows the user to choose from a variety of original Nintendo and Sega games. Kahnle, who will turn 28 next month, is old enough to have remembered the 1990s and played the eight-bit game systems. For two days in the clubhouse, he tried his hand at a variety of the games he played as a kid, more interested and focused on beating the games, more willing to hit reset and begin anew after each failed victory, than anyone else in the clubhouse.

And it is perhaps — in part, at least — that sort of persistence which has allowed a once wild arm DFA’d by the Rockies in November of 2015 to emerge as one of the most dominant relievers in the game. Jeff Sullivan recently investigated Kahnle’s curious and dominant April, and Kahnle has only continued to be something of the Craig Kimbrel of the AL Central.

The only pitcher striking out a greater percentage of batters than Kahnle (47.3%) this season is Kimbrel himself (55.6%).

More exhibits of evidence:

Top K% among relievers
Name K%
1 Craig Kimbrel 55.6%
2 Tommy Kahnle 47.3%
3 Corey Knebel 46.3%
4 Dellin Betances 46.1%
5 Kenley Jansen 44.8%
6 Trevor Rosenthal 44.6%
7 James Hoyt 42.4%
8 Andrew Miller 40.2%
9 Chris Devenski 38.9%
10 Joe Smith 38.0%
11 Carl Edwards Jr. 37.9%
12 Justin Wilson 37.4%
13 Jerry Blevins 37.1%
14 Blake Parker 36.8%
15 Wade Davis 36.5%
16 Andrew Chafin 36.4%
17 David Robertson 36.3%
18 Greg Holland 36.0%
19 Roberto Osuna 34.7%
20 J.J. Hoover 34.7%

The only pitchers featuring superior K-BB% marks are Kimbrel (50.5 points) and Kenley Jansen (44.8).

The other amazing Kahnle Fact: he has the fourth-lowest zone-contact rate among relievers (71%). Batters both chase out of the zone and struggle to hit him in the zone. It’s an attractive combination. He has now sustained this success for better than a third of the season.

Kanhle has always had good stuff. His four-seam fastball ranks seventh in velocity among relief pitchers’ fastballs, and 31st in whiff-per-swing rate, according to the Baseball Prospectus PITCHf/x leaderboards. He said he throws a traditional four-seam fastball but the pitch has some natural cutting action.

He’s second among reliever in whiff per swing (56%) on his primary secondary offering, a darting changeup.

While his fastball velocity is up from 94.6 mph in 2014 to a career-best 97.9 mph this season, while his changeup has better fading action away from Coors Field as one would expect, the secret to Kahnle’s success actually isn’t a secret at all.

“Getting ahead of hitters, really,” Kahnle told FanGraphs. “It’s tough to get guys out when you are falling behind a lot. It’s even tougher to strike guys out when you are not ahead. I would credit it to me getting ahead and these adjustments to mechanics.”

Kahnle has trimmed his walk rate to a career-low 6.6% this season, down from a 16.6% last season. His career average is 13.1%. His first-pitch strike rate has jumped to 60.4% from 52.8% a season ago, and from 52.3% for his career. His zone percent has increased to 50.5% from 47.3%.

For his career, Kahnle has been ahead of hitters in 214 plate appearances. In 239 plate appearances batters have been ahead of Kahnle. But this season, through Sunday, Kahnle has been ahead in the count 36 times compared to the hitter being ahead 23 times.

Consider the old Kahnle, and this infamous walk-off walk from last June:

And the new Kahnle dotting 100 mph:

With a wipeout changeup:

He’s more often getting heading in counts and is more often producing two-strike anxiety in hitters, as his swinging-strike rate has jumped from 10.8% to 17.0%.

Said Chicago White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper to The Athletic back in April: “The only thing between him and staying here forever is just throwing his fastball, his breaking ball, his change over the plate.”

And Kahnle is throwing his pitches more often over the plate.

Consider the fastballs he threw to left-handed hitters last season:

his season ….

And this season:

Kanhle credits some mechanical changes and work with Cooper to turning his career around. He has worked to lower his leg kick since last season. “I used to come up a little too high… It would cause a lot of things to go on,” Kahnle said. He also tried to have his back leg not dip quite as much as it did earlier in his career, causing him to elevate pitches and get inconsistent with his release point. He also developed a glove “tap” last year to get his “arm out quicker.”

But the most important change, he said, was keeping his head focused longer on its target, the catcher’s glove.

“A lot of people had talked about keeping my head on line, but I had never understood what they meant,” Kahnle said. “I kind of figured it out towards the end of the spring this year.”

Sometimes players don’t understand the language of a coach, sometimes there is a communication gap, and Kahnle said he had to develop a feel for what coaches meant by “staying on line.”

One day in Arizona this spring, he decided he was going to focus on the catcher’s glove as long as his he could. He was going to keep his focus there as close to his release point as he could, until his delivery took him somewhat dramatically to the first-base side of the pitching mound.

“I finally started doing it. I guess it worked,” Kahnle said. “All of the sudden, this year, it started clicking.”

And if Kahnle has really found a new level, if he’s really given the rebuilding White Sox a relief ace on the cheap, then it will be one of the better finds of the 2015-16 offseason.

The story of Kahnle is one of persistence and it’s also one of failure. This a pitcher who, like so many others before him, failed to pitch successfully at Coors Field. It was pitching at Coors that perhaps accelerated Kahnle’s realization that he had to make changes, that he had to be open to significant adjustments.

“Especially when I started to fail in Colorado, I knew I needed to change some things,” Kahnle said. “It was last offseason I really started to work on some things.”

Pitchers shed by the Rockies often come with a discount because they come with messy performance lines. But Collin McHugh figured it out at sea level in Houston after leaving Coors Field, as has Juan Nicasio in Los Angeles and Pittsburgh, as has Drew Pomeranz (at times) in San Diego and Boston. If you were willing to take a project, there was upside in Kahnle. A failed Rockies pitcher with stuff, a willing and persistent experimenter. Kahnle is looking more and more like he’s reached a new level, an elite level.


Asking Brian Dozier About His Missing Home Runs

Last year, Brian Dozier hit 42 home runs for the Twins. He’d never hit 30 before that, so it was fair to wonder if the power was repeatable. Earlier this year, he was on pace for a total much more similar to his career norms… and yet some of the factors we used to look at last year’s home runs suggest that he should have recorded more homers this year already. Notably, Andrew Perpetua’s xStats metric indicated last week that Dozier had an expected home-run tally that was four homers higher than his actual number.

I was curious about it, so I decided to go directly to the source. Before a recent Twins-Giants game in San Francisco, I made a trip to the visitor’s clubhouse with video of the longest fly balls that Dozier has hit this year. “Where are those missing home runs?” I asked him.

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Hader’s Gonna… Join Milwaukee’s Bullpen

In addition to calling up stud center-field prospect Lewis Brinson, Milwaukee also recently summoned talented lefty and KATOH crush Josh Hader. Although Hader’s worked primarily as starter in the minors, the Brewers plan to use him out of the bullpen for the time being. A 19th-round pick out of high school, Hader’s been exceeding expectations for years. He owns a 3.87 FIP and 27% strikeout rate in 541 minor-league innings. In 25 starts between Double-A and Triple-A last year, he pitched to a sparkling 3.07 FIP with a 31% strikeout rate.

Things didn’t go as swimmingly for Hader in Triple-A this year, however. He maintained a solid 22% strikeout rate, but matched it with a 14% walk rate and coughed up an uncharacteristic 14 homers in 52 innings. The end result was a 5.37 ERA and 4.93 xFIP, which doesn’t exactly scream “big-league ready.”

Still, KATOH remains optimistic. My system projects Hader for 5.0 WAR over his first six seasons by the traditional method and 5.7 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates scouting rankings. That makes him one of the top 10 pitching prospects in the minors, and a mid-top-100 guy overall.

To put some faces to Hader’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps for the 6-foot-3 lefty. I calculated a weighted Mahalanobis distance between Hader’s Double-A and Triple-A performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

Josh Hader Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Name KATOH+ Proj. WAR Actual WAR Mah Dist
1 Eric Gagne 4.6 13.2 0.5
2 Joaquin Benoit 3.1 6.3 0.6
3 Dan Reichert 8.5 2.2 0.8
4 Scott Linebrink 2.9 4.2 0.9
5 Ryan Vogelsong 3.3 0.7 1.0
6 Cliff Lee 5.3 21.0 1.2
7 Scott Mathieson 3.3 0.0 1.2
8 Tom Fordham 4.3 0.0 1.3
9 C.J. Nitkowski 3.9 1.8 1.4
10 Wade Davis 5.0 9.6 1.6

Despite his relative lack of prospect pedigree, Hader’s stuff is almost certainly of big-league quality. The lefty’s fastball averaged over 94 mph in his debut, and both his slider and changeup project to plus according to Eric Longenhagen. However, scouts have long contended that Hader profiles best as a reliever. To wit:

  • Eric Longenhagen, 2017: “Those who consider him a reliever cite the rarity of a delivery like this in starting rotations across baseball, the potential platoon issues Hader might face as a low-slot lefty, and his fringey control.”
  • Baseball America Prospect Handbook, 2016: “His reliance on his outstanding fastball combined with just ordinary control make him a possible bullpen candidate.”
  • Baseball America Prospect Handbook, 2015: “Durability will always be a question because of Hader’s size and how he slings the ball across his body… His reliance on his fastball profiles him better as a reliever.”
  • Baseball America Prospect Handbook, 2014: “It’s one of the most unconventional deliveries a starter could use… Scouts see him as a future lefty reliever where his low arm angle will make life difficult for lefthanders.”

Despite the persistent “future reliever” label, Hader dominated for years as a starter in the minors. But when he finally sputtered in Triple-A, the Brewers seemingly decided to try him in the pen. Given his stuff and minor-league performance, I have little doubt that he’ll be a dominant force there.


2017 Live Draft Coverage with Eric Longenhagen and Chris Mitchell

Keith Law will unfortunately not be able to join Eric tonight, as previously announced. Chris Mitchell will be replacing him as Eric’s co-host.

Tonight, the MLB draft begins at 7 pm eastern. Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen will be covering the first round as it happens, via Google Hangout, and he’ll also be joined by Chris Mitchell. Together, they’ll discuss the first 27 picks, and when possible, take questions from you guys as well.

To help facilitate the conversation, we’re going to have a Jotcast queue open for you guys to submit questions, and they’ll pick from that queue and answer them as they can. As they’ll be answering the questions on video, this isn’t a traditional chat, but they’ll hopefully have time to answer some of your queries in between selections.

Bookmark this post for your live draft coverage with Eric and Keith tonight, and we’ll have the Google Hangout embedded in this post when they go live right before the draft begins.

6:59

Ola Velund: Is there a team where the potential health-related Canning fall ends?

7:04

Eric A Longenhagen: late 20s, still ines up well vs other college arms

7:04

Dave: How likely are the A’s to take Hiura at 6 if he’s there? How much could they really save with an uderslot with him?

7:09

Mark: How much can minor league overall rankings change in one draft? How many spots could the Twins and Reds rise, or the Cards fall?

7:13

Eric A Longenhagen:

7:19

Eric A Longenhagen:

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FanGraphs’ 2017 Mock Draft, Final Edition

What follows is my last attempt to mock out the first round of the 2017 amateur draft. It’s mostly names with teams and nothing more, but I’ve included exposition where I think it’s merited. I’ll update it as information flows throughout the day, perhaps several times. Players have been assigned to teams based on multiple factors: rumors I’ve heard from various industry sources, the presence of front-office members at certain games (especially lately), each club’s own particular modus operandi, etc. Be sure to check out our draft rankings here. Chris Mitchell and I will be covering the draft live here.

1. Minnesota – Brendan McKay, 1B/LHP, Lousiville
I’ve heard JSerra SS Royce Lewis was being considered above where I had him on my last mock (which was as a potential option at No. 3, mocked at No. 5) and MLB.com has reported that it’s at No. 1. Presumably, Lewis would be an underslot target. That said, he’s a Boras advisee and an option at third overall, whereas McKay’s next home is at pick No. 4, so I’m not sure how Minnesota has more negotiating leverage over Lewis than McKay. If they take Lewis, I think it’s just because they like him most and the savings will be marginal.

2. Cincinnati – Hunter Greene, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA)

3. San Diego – MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Whiteville HS (NC)
Greene is the other option, if he’s still available, with Lewis as a dark horse.

4. Tampa Bay – Royce Lewis, SS, JSerra HS (CA)
I think McKay stops here if he falls. Alabama high school OF Bubba Thompson has been mentioned as an underslot possibility here.


Royce Lewis: now to Tampa Bay? (Photo: Bill Mitchell)

5. Atlanta – Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
Wright is the top player on my board, and I think he’d be a steal here, but there’s a chance Atlanta goes underslot with Concordia Lutheran HS (TX) Shane Baz, UC Irvine 2B? Keston Hiura and Huntington Beach HS 1B Nick Pratto. They’ve also had North Carolina prep outfielder Austin Beck in to work out, but I think there’s less money to be saved there than with the other names. If Wright doesn’t go here, he should be considered the favorite at each pick until he does.

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The Worst of Rougned Odor Is Back

At the end of March, the Rangers and Rougned Odor agreed to a six-year commitment, worth just shy of $50 million. Since then, Odor has gone from being a guy coming off a .502 slugging percentage to being a guy actively slugging .359. When you look for reasons why the Rangers are standing a little bit under .500, you should give plenty of consideration to the fact that, for two and a half months or so, Odor has played around the replacement level. His wRC+ is quite literally just about half what it was a season ago.

So, what’s ailing Odor at the plate? Here is a decent and very simple clue:

As a rookie, Odor was good for 19 pop-ups and nine home runs. As a sophomore, he finished with 26 pop-ups and 16 home runs. In what left the impression of being a breakout junior season, Odor wound up with 16 pop-ups and 33 home runs. But now Odor’s a senior, I guess, and his current line includes 19 pop-ups and nine home runs. Fully a quarter of Odor’s fly balls have qualified as pop-ups. That rate is extreme — too extreme — and it’s evident right away that Odor is back to just not squaring up the ball often enough.

In the plot, you see Odor’s rates of infield flies per fly ball, and home runs per fly ball. Here are the former rates, subtracted from the latter rates:

  • 2014: -8.8%
  • 2015: -7.3%
  • 2016: +8.8%
  • 2017: -13.2%

That’s just HR/FB% – IFFB%. To further contextualize things, here are Odor’s year-to-year MLB percentile rankings in the same stat:

  • 2014: 8th percentile
  • 2015: 7th
  • 2016: 76th
  • 2017: 1st

Odor, by this measure, was very bad, then very bad, then pretty good!, and now very bad. It’s not that he isn’t a half-decent power hitter, but he pops up too often for someone who hits so many balls in the air. Last season made it seem as if Odor had managed to conquer one of his biggest drawbacks, but now it’s back with a vengeance, and Odor is having difficulty keeping his head above water.

This doesn’t actually explain whatever the problem might be. It’s just another indicator that a problem has existed. And it’s also important to point out that, when Odor popped up a bunch in 2015, he still managed to hit all right. But Odor changed his approach over time to become more fly-ball friendly, and the pop-up issue has been worse than ever. Odor is trying to get under the ball, but in a sense he’s been too successful. The mis-hits have dragged down his batting line, to a woeful depth.

Odor will adjust, and the stats will improve. I can’t see him finishing all that close to a wRC+ of 54. But, given how aggressively he swings, he’s given the impression of being awfully volatile. Volatile players go through some miserable slumps. Rangers fans have seen the worst of Rougned Odor again, and this needs to get turned around within a week or three if the team wants to mount a serious charge for the wild card.


The Home-Run Spike Has a Home-Run Spike

I don’t need to tell any of you that home runs are up, right? That’s an analytical conversation that has long since permeated the average baseball-ing household. There are more frequent home runs than there used to be. There were signs of a weird spike beginning around the 2015 All-Star break. It’s not because of the ball! At least, there’s no convincing evidence pointing to it being because of the ball. Home runs are just up, and it’s a thing we’ve gotten used to.

There was a time that identifying the home-run spike might’ve counted as groundbreaking. That time has passed. All I’m here to tell you today is that the home-run spike is still spiking. Rates, I mean, haven’t plateaued. They’re still going up. Home runs continue to take offense by storm. Here are home-run rates going back to 1954, with all plate appearances as the denominator:

This current June is the 379th month in the sample. And although this current June still has a long ways to go, it has what would be the highest home-run rate for a month. May would rank third-highest. So, that’s something. But then, there’s also the matter of this — contact has been going down. Here are the monthly rates of plate appearances ending with a batted ball hit fair:

Nothing you didn’t know about in there, either. But now let’s combine the two, looking at home-run rates, with batted balls as the denominator instead of plate appearances:

Just so you know, I went back to 1954 because that’s the first year of Baseball Reference having record of sacrifice flies. Nothing that happened before 1954 would change the overall picture. In terms of home runs on contact, this June would easily rank first. May is in second. April is in seventh, even though April historically has the lowest home-run rates for any month out of the six. Baseball is on its 15th consecutive regular-season month with a higher home-run rate on contact than the previous season’s equivalent month. Homers this April were up 12% over last April, which were up 18% over the previous April. Homers this May were up 12% over last May. Homers so far in June are up 10% over last June. Where we are now, 5.12% of fair batted balls in June have been homers. It’s the first time baseball’s broken the 5% threshold.

April had the second-highest homer rate for any April, narrowly behind April 2000. May had the highest homer rate for any May. June has what would be, very easily, the highest homer rate for any June. It’s enough to make you wonder about July, August, and September. I don’t know where the trend is going to go, but I could offer a guess, based on the fact that absolutely nothing here has slowed down.

The home-run era is welcoming even more home runs. Many people have their guesses for why this is taking place. Nothing, as far as I know, has been proven, conclusively. All that’s truly been proven is that home runs are everywhere. I’d tell you to get used to it, but then, you probably already have.


The Workloads of 2017’s Top Draft Prospects

Hundreds of college pitchers will be selected in the MLB draft over the next three days. They’ll vary widely in talent and readiness, ranging from raw power arms to pitchability-types lacking premium stuff. Many will be tied together by one commonality: heavy usage in college. Last year, I found that deep starts and meager rest stints are all-too-frequent occurrences for collegiate pitchers. Do the same standards apply to the cream of this year’s draft crop?

Let’s focus on the most coveted collegiate pitchers: the projected 2017 first-round draftees. First rounders capture fan attention, pepper prospect lists, and generally have the best shot at becoming solid MLB contributors. Big leaguers will be found in the later rounds, of course, but it’s the first rounders who are paid the most money and carry the highest expectations. So let’s look at the ten NCAA pitchers — starters all — projected by Baseball America to be selected in the first round this evening.

NCAA Pitchers in Baseball America’s Mock First Round
Pick Pitcher School
1 Kyle Wright Vanderbilt
4 Brendan McKay Louisville
8 J.B. Bukauskas North Carolina
10 Alex Faedo Florida
16 Griffin Canning UCLA
24 David Peterson Oregon
25 Seth Romero Houston*
26 Tanner Houck Missouri
30 Clarke Schmidt South Carolina
33 Alex Lange LSU
Player names and selection numbers are from BA’s June 9 mock draft.
*Formerly; Romero was kicked off the team in May.

I pulled game logs from the NCAA’s statistics pages for each of the pitchers, capturing all of their pitch counts and batters-faced totals from their college careers (up through yesterday’s games). Where the NCAA was missing pitch counts, I recorded the data from game logs on team websites. For the few instances in which this secondary effort bore no fruit, I estimated pitch counts by taking the pitcher’s batters faced total in that game, and multiplying it times the average pitches per batters faced for that pitcher-season.

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The Yankees Are Winning the Dinger Battle

With the weekend now officially in the books, Aaron Judge is the new owner of the longest home run of the season. He’s also the new owner of the fastest-hit home run of the season, which is additionally the fastest-hit home run of the admittedly brief Statcast era. Allow me to note that these were two different home runs.

Aaron Judge is not the result of some kind of hype train gone off the rails. He’s not just some hot hitter who’s got number-types overexcited. Sure, he could cool off. Sure, further adjustments will be made. But Judge, in April, was baseball’s sixth-best hitter. In May, he was baseball’s fourth-best hitter. In June, he’s been baseball’s second-best hitter. Aaron Judge is a candidate to win both the Rookie of the Year and the MVP awards at the same time, and he’s doing things other players don’t do. At least, other players not named Giancarlo Stanton. Pre-Statcast, we would’ve assumed that Judge is a freak. With Statcast, we know that Judge is a freak, someone pushing the limits of on-field human capability. If you’re not in love with Aaron Judge, it’s not some noble rebellion against the media’s east-coast bias. It’s about you closing off your own heart.

Judge is amazing. He’s why every big-power type with a strikeout problem gets chance after chance. Judge is the embodiment of so many dreams come true. Here’s what’s just as nuts: Judge isn’t solely responsible for carrying the Yankees’ offense. Judge is but one soldier in the Yankees’ push for home-run supremacy.

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