Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/10/17

1:59
Dan Szymborski: Let’s get this party started!

1:59
Dan Szymborski: NOTE: THIS IS NOT A PARTY

2:00
DCBaller: What are the Nats doing with Joe Ross?

2:00
Dan Szymborski: They want him to get his confidence back. He got destroyed in his Syracuse start too.

2:00
mtsw: How much are you buying new-look Yonder Alonso? Flukey 5 weeks or a guy who could end the season with 40 HR?

2:00
Dan Szymborski: Talked about this on Twitter, but I’m buying significant improvement when it comes to Alonso. He’s not driving everything into the ground, his launch angle is actually getting him some power.

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Eric Thames and the Transformative Power of Boredom

PITTSBURGH – Baseball players are often late risers, working second-shift hours. As such, Eric Thames typically began his days in Changwon, South Korea, around 11 a.m. local time. He went through a series of stretching exercises in his apartment and then departed for lunch.

His home was about a mile from the ballpark in Changwon, a southeastern port city positioned on an inlet that flows to the East China Sea. For lunch, there were five of six American-style style restaurants nearby. There was a burger joint, Italian and Mexican restaurants. Web sites created by American expats documented all the options. He would eat alone, reading his Kindle or iPhone, skimming through articles. He would then walk, or travel by Onewheel skateboard, to Massan Stadium, the home of the NC Dinos. He would arrive early, and hit early, alone, for 30 or 40 minutes. Afterward, he would read more in the clubhouse as he tried to fill in the hours before first pitch.

During most of his time with the Dinos — owned by NCSoft, a South Korean video-game developer — Thames had only two American teammates and both had brought their families along with them. After home games, or on the road, Thames would often retire to his apartment or hotel room. For three years of his life, and of his professional career, Thames was often alone.

“I was so bored over there,” Thames told FanGraphs. “The language barrier was really tough. For me, it was a lot of time by myself. I didn’t speak any [Korean]. All the other American [players] had families and stuff, so they are with their kids. So I’m just online reading stuff, and I’m bored, and I’m pissed because I’m 0-for-15. ‘Let’s figure out what’s going on here.’ So I started looking up video.”

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 5/10/17

12:03
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:04
Dave Cameron: Sorry for the delayed start; had a toddler meltdown to help with.

12:04
David: Will Chris Taylor turn into a pumpkin or is this a Justin Turner-esque resurgence?

12:05
Dave Cameron: Those aren’t really the only two options. Taylor projected as a roughly league average player heading into the season, so it’s not that weird that he’s had a good 50 at-bats. I don’t think he’s going to turn into an offensive star, but he’s a good defensive middle infielder who isn’t a terrible hitter.

12:06
Erik: The Phillies’ rotation was supposed to be their strength, but even the pitchers doing well by ERA like Hellickson have awful underlying numbers. What do you make of them going forward? Are they still the average unit they were projected to be at the start of the year?

12:07
Dave Cameron: A healthy Nola would help, but Velasquez isn’t doing anything to push back against the idea that he’s a long-term reliever.

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The Giants Are Stuck

Things haven’t exactly gone according to plan for the Giants. A year after winning the Wild Card game, they’ve got the worst record in baseball and, as of right now, a 7% chance of making the playoffs. They’ve lost their ace to a foolish dirt-bike accident, and their starters at shortstop and center field, as well as their closer, are on the DL. They’ve scored the second-fewest runs of any team, and their run differential of -69 makes that even worse. It’s May 10th and the Giants may already be dead.

Teams this far out of the playoff picture typically make the most of it by offloading pieces to contenders in exchange for prospects. It’s much too early in the year for theoretical contenders to be pushing their chips to the center of the table just yet, but it’s not too early for them to be surveying the shape of the market. Unfortunately for both buyers and San Francisco, the Giants may not have many pieces to pick over.

Players who get moved at midseason usually don’t have much time remaining on their contracts before they hit free agency. They’re guys who may not be around when the selling team is making its next playoff run — or whom the club can otherwise afford to replace. The Giants have pretty much their entire core under contract for next year. Only Hunter Pence and possibly Denard Span (depending on how the Giants decide to handle his option) will leave for free agency following 2018’s conclusion. They’ll have Bumgarner back at full strength next year, and in the unlikely event that Johnny Cueto doesn’t opt out, he’ll be there, too. If Cueto does opt out, this upcoming free-agent class doesn’t lack for premium starting pitching, on which the Giants have repeatedly shown themselves willing to spend.

That’s all a somewhat roundabout way of saying that the Giants don’t exactly have a ton of expendable trade chips at the moment. This season doesn’t look like the start of an irreparable decline as much as it looks like a rather large bump in the road. There’s no reason the Giants can’t be competitive next year, even if they do lose Cueto. But barring a massive resurgence and excellent play from their currently injured players, the Giants aren’t going anywhere this year, and they’re not really in a position to better prepare themselves for the future.

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How Much Power Does Andrew Toles Have?

Part of this job is writing about players who’ve put together interesting performances in small sample sizes. Really, at this point of the season, that describes basically every player. With Andrew Toles, though, it’s even harder: his whole career is a small sample size. And now, depending on the severity of his current knee injury, we might be forced to continue trying to evaluate him as a player based on very little evidence.

In that brief career, however, Toles has been good. Among active players who both (a) have recorded 200-plus plate appearances (Toles has 214) and (b) have yet to turn 25 (which he does in two weeks), Toles ranks 40th out of 99 by Wins Above Replacement — and he’s top 30 in isolated power.

That latter distinction is interesting. Projections, perhaps seeing powerless seasons in the minor leagues and dealing with a missed year in some form or another, don’t see that kind of power. I had to ask the player why they might be missing the point.

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This Isn’t the Time to Trade Matt Harvey

We’re a little early for Dave Cameron’s annual must-read Trade Value series, but I suspect Matt Harvey won’t be appearing in it this year. I feel quite certain about that prognostication — even if Harvey avoids exile to the minor leagues and returns instead to his vintage 2013 form over the next few weeks.

Harvey met with the media Tuesday afternoon at Citi Field and tried to begin taking some accountability for his recent actions.

While Harvey initially claimed that an innocent headache prevented him from showing up at the ballpark on Saturday, the New York Post later reported that Harvey’s headache was perhaps a product of self-inflicted dehydration.

The “Dark Knight” was celebrating a late Cinco de Mayo at 1Oak until 4 a.m. Saturday — just hours before he failed to show up for a game at Citi Field, reportedly because of a “migraine,” sources said.

If true, it’s remarkable that folks still believe they can escape truth in an era of smart phones and social media.

A day earlier, Jon Heyman reported that Harvey and his agent Scott Boras planned to file a grievance over the suspension. It was suggested that the Harvey camp was displeased with the Mets’ decision to send team officials over to Harvey’s apartment for a check-in. Whatever the case, there doesn’t appear to be a lot of trust here.

The Mets’ 2017 season has become quite the soap opera, and it stars Harvey.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/9/17

4:40
Paul Swydan:

If you were to replace a letter in the word “FanGraphs” with the FanGraphs logo, which letter would you choose?

F (9.1% | 15 votes)
 
First A (25.0% | 41 votes)
 
N (9.7% | 16 votes)
 
G (11.5% | 19 votes)
 
R (0.6% | 1 vote)
 
Second A (31.0% | 51 votes)
 
P (4.2% | 7 votes)
 
H (6.0% | 10 votes)
 
S (2.4% | 4 votes)
 

Total Votes: 164
4:43
Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 7:05 – 7:10 pm ET matchup?

SEA (Miranda) vs. PHI (Eickhoff) (7.1% | 12 votes)
 
WAS (Scherzer) vs. BAL (Jimenez) (39.5% | 66 votes)
 
CLE (Carrasco) vs. TOR (Bolsinger) (10.7% | 18 votes)
 
KC (Young) vs. TB (Andriese) (0.5% | 1 vote)
 
NYY (Sabathia) vs. CIN (Adleman) (2.9% | 5 votes)
 
SF (Samardzija) vs. NYM (Wheeler) (32.9% | 55 votes)
 
STL (Wainwright) vs. MIA (Straily) (5.9% | 10 votes)
 

Total Votes: 167
4:45
Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 7:40 pm ET or later matchup?

BOS (Pomeranz) vs. MIL (Peralta) (2.9% | 5 votes)
 
ATL (Colon) vs. HOU (Morton) (6.3% | 11 votes)
 
MIN (Santiago) vs. CHW (Pelfrey) (0.5% | 1 vote)
 
CHC (Lackey) vs. COL (Freeland) (6.3% | 11 votes)
 
DET (Verlander) vs. ARI (Ray) (38.3% | 66 votes)
 
LAA (Meyer) vs. OAK (Cotton) (4.0% | 7 votes)
 
PIT (Nova) vs. LAD (Urias) (41.2% | 71 votes)
 

Total Votes: 172
4:49
Paul Swydan:

Which team with a .500 or better record but a – BaseRuns RDiff is the most for real?

BAL (21-10 record; -1 RDif) (55.4% | 101 votes)
 
CHW (15-15; -6) (0% | 0 votes)
 
MIN (15-14; -7) (3.2% | 6 votes)
 
MIL (16-16; -8) (5.4% | 10 votes)
 
DET (15-15; -14) (8.7% | 16 votes)
 
All of them are for real (1.6% | 3 votes)
 
None of them are for real (25.2% | 46 votes)
 

Total Votes: 182
9:00
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00
Paul Swydan: PLEASE keep voting in that first poll. I think we’re on the right track with it being on of the A’s. But which one? Agh!

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Effectively Wild Episode 1055: A Scorecard, a Save, and a Home-Run Reveal

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan talk to 18-year-old Effectively Wild listener/pitcher Connor Watrous about his heroic accomplishment of keeping score at an 18-inning Cubs-Yankees game, banter about a besieged closer and a Matt Albers milestone, and discuss the implications of a new development in the high-home-run-rate mystery.

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Jed Bradley, No Longer Enjoying the Game He Loves, Walks Away at 26

Jed Bradley was honest when I talked to him in January 2013. A first-round pick by the Milwaukee Brewers 18 months earlier, the left-hander admitted his velocity was down, and that he’d been experienced “a big learning curve.”

He was also thoughtful and realistic. The Georgia Tech product spoke about how most fans don’t understand “the pathway you have to take to get to the big leagues,” and about how the high minors are populated by veteran players who are supporting families and “putting everything on the line just for a shot.”

Bradley got his shot last September, appearing in six games, and hurling seven innings, for the Atlanta Braves. Last week, at age 26, he bid baseball adieu.

When I asked him why he retired, the former ACC Honor Roll student was every bit as honest and thoughtful as he was four years ago. Read the rest of this entry »


Projecting Pirates Utility Infielder Max Moroff

Yesterday, the Pirates called up 23-year-old utility man Max Moroff from Triple-A. Moroff was off to a hot start — he was slashing .258/.345/.546 — but to most this as a rather mundane transaction. It piqued my interest, however, because Moroff cracked the the All-KATOH team in the preseason thanks to his stellar minor league performance in spite of his lack of prospect pedigree.

Moroff spent last season at the Triple-A level, where he slashed .230/.367/.349 with a concerning 25% strikeout rate and an impressive 17% walk rate. He has something of a three true outcomes profile, which is somewhat uncommon for a middle infielder. His offensive numbers didn’t really drive KATOH’s optimism, however. Rather, it liked that he played premium defensive positions and has played them relatively well as a 22- and 23-year-old in the upper levels.

Fast forward a month into 2017, and Moroff has started to hit too. His strikeout and walk rates have both ticked in the wrong direction, but he’s added power to the mix. He belted eight homers in his first 24 games, which already ties his career high. The power has seemingly come out of nowhere, although erstwhile lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel did say he had “feel for the game and a little pop, but he has trouble getting to it in games” a couple of years ago.

Max Moroff suddenly looks like a 23-year-old, Triple-A shortstop with power and decent speed. As a result, my KATOH system projects Moroff for 6.6 WAR over his first six seasons by the traditional method and 4.4 WAR by KATOH+, which integrates his pessimistic prospect rank from Eric Longenhagen. Both are up a couple of ticks from the preseason. My model saw him as a no-doubt top-100 prospect over the winter, and he’s only improved his stock since. Read the rest of this entry »