A First-Hand Look at MLB’s Trailblazer Series

This is a guest post from Jen Mac Ramos, assistant general manager of the Sonoma Stompers. You can find Jen on Twitter.

The MLB Urban Youth Academy in Compton, California, is tucked away in a small corner of the Compton campus of El Camino Community College. Early on a Friday, the field is being prepared for a day-and-a-half’s worth of baseball games and instruction. As the buses roll up to the field, out pour about 100 young girls under the age of 16 and their coaches, many of whom are members of Team USA’s women’s national baseball team. Their excitement mounts as they view for the first time their home for the next two days, where their love for the game will be on full display

This is the Trailblazer Series, the first-of-its-kind girls baseball tournament in the United States, showcasing young female ballplayers from the States, D.C., and Canada. Featuring guest speakers such as Kim Ng, the senior vice president of baseball operations for Major League Baseball and the highest ranking Asian-American woman baseball executive, the tournament is meant to inspire young girls to pursue their dreams of playing baseball and give them the confidence to achieve other goals.

I drove down from Northern California’s Wine Country as the Sonoma Stompers’ representative at the tournament. The Stompers have made waves before, having added the first professional openly gay baseball player, Sean Conroy, to its roster in 2015 and three women — Anna Kimbrell, Stacy Piagno, and Kelsie Whitmore — to the team in 2016. (Kimbrell and Piagno, the latter of whom will be returning to the Stompers in 2017, also served as coaches at the Trailblazer Series.)

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FanGraphs Audio: Joe Sheehan, FanGraphs Resident for April

Episode 733
Joe Sheehan is a founding member of Baseball Prospectus and the author of an eponymous Baseball Newsletter. He’s also (a) FanGraphs’ writer-in-residence for the month of April and (b) the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 56 min play time.)

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The Best of FanGraphs: April 17-21, 2017

Note: this week’s edition of Best Of has been published on Sunday instead of Saturday because (a) Paul Swydan is away and (b) he asked an irresponsible colleague to take his place.

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.

MONDAY
Eric Thames Is Still Mashing by Nick Stellini
What was true when Stellini published this on Monday remains true today.

Starting Pitcher Pitch Mix Changes by Mike Podhorzer
Danny Salazar’s throwing more changeups, Kendall Graveman more fastballs. Podhorzer’s on the case.

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Sunday Notes: Whitley’s Cattle, Cubs Butler, Gausman’s Analogy, Prideful Yard Goat, more

Chase Whitley grew up playing good old country hardball in Alabama. More specifically, he played it in rural Alabama. The Tampa Bay Rays right-hander hails from Ranburne, which he affectionately described as “a small town with zero stoplights.” Fewer than 500 people call it home, so it’s no wonder he knows “literally every person there.”

In Hoosiers-like fashion, the close-knit community has captured sports glory.

“Growing up, my teams consisted of a bunch of close friends,” related Whitley. “There were 13 of us, and we played together from Little League and Dixie Youth all the way through high school. My junior year, we won the state championship.”

Whitley also played on some “really good” basketball teams, and he spent time on the gridiron as well. Kids in Ranburne are expected to participate in multiple sports because, well, it’s what you do in that neck of the woods. As for their athletic accomplishments, Whitley views them mostly as a byproduct of “buddies who hang out and play some pretty good ball.”

That’s when they’re not working. Growing up where they did, you earn your keep. Read the rest of this entry »


Does your win expectancy change if the game is still scoreless?

Jeff Sullivan had a variation of this question for me. I found it intriguing enough to take a quick look. This chart is limited to games where the game was tied entering any half inning.

Obviously, the first two half-innings, the game is scoreless entering those half innings. And we don’t see much separation until we get to the start of the 11th half inning (i.e, top of the 6th). From that point onwards, the chance of home team winning increases in a scoreless game.

Why would this be? Almost certainly selection bias. Those games feature a low run environment, either because pitcher parks are disproportionately represented, or great pitchers are disproportionately represented.

Basically, in a small-ball setting, the chance of winning increases for the home team of a tied game.

But, is that ALL it could be? Could maybe managers and players play differently knowing the game is scoreless? Someone else can take it from here.

scorelessWE


Effectively Wild Episode 1048: Such is This Game, and Such is Life

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Ichiro’s home run in his return to Seattle, the feasibility of intentionally allowing dingers, a John Jaso quote, and manager bobbleheads, then discuss the present and future use, abuse, and presentation of Statcast data.

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Madison Bumgarner Crashes His Bike and Playoff Hopes

It’s not a shock that Madison Bumgarner has never been on the disabled list before now. He’s a big horse of a man, made purely of muscle and tree sap. The only thing that’s prevented him from being sidelined is Bruce Bochy not letting him throw 400 innings in a year and, apparently, that he’s been steady on a dirt bike until now.

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The Most Impossible Task of the Summer

I’m an idiot, and looked up where the All-Star Game was last year. The All-Star Game this year is in Miami. So, yes, corrections below.

The story of the first few weeks of this season has almost certainly been the arrival of Eric Thames, who has returned from Korea to look like one of the game’s best power hitters. While Thames won’t keep hitting like Babe Ruth in his prime, unless there’s some hidden exploitable flaw that no one has found yet, he’s probably going to be a pretty decent hitter for the Brewers for the next few months.

And if he does keep hitting even near what the projections think he’ll be going forward, it’s going to be nearly impossible to fill out the first base portion of the National League All-Star ballot. Thames has simply made the most crowded position in baseball even more so.

Just for fun, let’s look at the top 15 hitters by our rest-of-season wOBA projections from the combined ZIPS/Steamer forecasts. I’ll highlight the NL first baseman in this table.

Top 15 wOBAs, Rest Of Season
Name wOBA
Mike Trout 0.410
Bryce Harper 0.403
Joey Votto 0.385
Anthony Rizzo 0.383
Paul Goldschmidt 0.382
Miguel Cabrera 0.382
Freddie Freeman 0.380
Nolan Arenado 0.379
Josh Donaldson 0.378
Giancarlo Stanton 0.374
Kris Bryant 0.371
Mookie Betts 0.371
Eric Thames 0.367
Manny Machado 0.364
Andrew McCutchen 0.359

By our forecasts, five of the 13 best hitters in baseball over the remainder of the season play first base in the National League. That doesn’t even account for what has already happened, with Thames and Freeman putting themselves in very strong positions to have All-Star numbers by the break. And even with the DH now being used in every All-Star Game, the reality is that there’s really only room to carry four first baseman on the roster.

And we haven’t even mentioned that, of these five players, there are probably only going to be three spots available, because Wil Myers is very likely to be the Padres best representative, and as their best player, is nearly guaranteed a spot in the game given that the contest is in his home park. If we assume Myers is going to get one spot, that leaves three chances for some combination of Freeman, Thames, Votto, Rizzo, and Goldschmidt. Sorry Brandon Belt, but we’re going to pretend you don’t exist, and I hope you don’t have any All-Star incentives in your contract.

Rizzo is probably the most likely bet to win the fan’s vote as the starter, given the Cubs current popularity and the fact that their fans elected their entire starting infield last year. Freeman seems like something close to a lock, given his start and the likelihood that the Braves won’t have a lot of other compelling options to pick from. So that leaves Thames, Votto, and Goldschmidt probably fighting over one spot.

Yeah. All-Star rosters aren’t a thing that really matter, but I can’t remember a time where some obviously great players were effectively guaranteed of being shut out of the midsummer classic.


Tyler Chatwood’s New Tyler Chatwood

A tough thing about analyzing pitching is that it’s a moving target. You can get a decent sense of what a pitcher is like right now, and then he can completely change his approach over the next month and become a different pitcher. There’s evidence of this in the data: a pitcher’s exit velocity becomes stable relatively quickly, but then that stat’s predictability doesn’t actually improve as the sample increases. In other words, you can see what the pitcher’s got now, but what about tomorrow? Ask us then.

This is all relevant to Tyler Chatwood. You might have thought you had an idea of who he was as a pitcher — great sinker, uses his four-seamer for whiffs, and doesn’t have great secondary stuff, so it’s all about the ground balls. That’s who he was! It isn’t who he is right now, though. I had to ask him about who he is right now when I had the chance.

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A Leaderboard of Interest to Potential Bidders for Eric Hosmer

Eric Hosmer is a free agent after this season. Maybe the most interesting free agent of the upcoming winter. If you are an unnamed scout who talked to Jon Heyman back in spring training, you think Hosmer should get far more than the 5 years/$73 million Brandon Belt got as an extension from the Giants, because anyone who thinks Belt is better than Hosmer should “get a grip”. The old $200 million rumor is so ridiculous we don’t even need to bother addressing it, but as Jeff wrote in February, it wouldn’t be that hard for a team to rationalize their way into a deal for more than $100 million if they believed a few things that aren’t entirely unbelievable.

But, as a counterpoint to Jeff’s perfectly reasonable post, I’d like to present a leaderboard that offers another perfectly reasonable position; the one that just acknowledges that Eric Hosmer isn’t very good.

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