Heading into the winter, there has been one thing that’s pretty much universally agreed upon; this is a bad free agent class. After chasing Zack Greinke and David Price last winter, the best arms on the market this winter include the likes of Jeremy Hellickson and Ivan Nova. When it comes to just throwing money at veterans in an attempt to upgrade a team’s roster, the pickings are slim this go around.

Naturally, any time there is a diminished supply, thoughts go towards price inflation. And we see this all the time in our daily lives. Gas pipeline bursts? Gas prices go through the roof. Grower strike in Mexico? Avocados now cost like $20 apiece. We need more avocados, people; the lack of guacamole in my life lately has been a real problem.

So, it’s tempting to look at this winter’s sparse free agent crop and think we’re about to see some truly crazy contracts. After all, teams are still making money hand over fist, and there are only so many ways to spend money in baseball, with the path of least resistance being to hand it over the best free agent that will take it. This kind of landscape leads to tweets like this one, from Ken Rosenthal the other day.

Craziest prediction I’ve heard so far from a GM: Ivan Nova, five years, $75M.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 7, 2016

I don’t know, maybe Ivan Nova really will get $75 million. I’d take the under, but Ian Kennedy got $80 million (and an opt-out!) while tied to draft pick compensation, so we can’t really say that anything is completely out of the realm of reason. But, as much as there is a supply shortage of upper-end talent in the free agent market this winter, there is one reason to think that prices might not be as outrageous as some expect. That reason? A reduced supply of free agents also means reduced demand for roster spots to be filled.

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Last year’s free-agent class was one of the strongest we’ve ever seen. With legitimate aces like Zack Greinke and David Price heading the class plus young outfield talent in Jason Heyward and Justin Upton, a bona fide slugger in Chris Davis, along with a host of other mid-rotation starters and solid position player options, teams spent roughly three-quarters of a billion dollars on free agents in 2016 salaries alone. This season lacks talent at the top and depth in the middle, but that doesn’t mean we should expect to see a lot less spending. Nobody is likely to receive $200 million, but teams have plenty of money to spend and it has to go somewhere.

One way to think about how much money teams have to spend this offseason is to consider the salaries departing from their rosters. The chart below measures the money that has disappeared from clubs’ payrolls. To calculate each figure, I began with every club’s Opening Day obligations from 2016 and identified those players making at least $1 million in 2016 who either (a) were traded during the season or (b) have become a free agent in the meantime. I then added up the salaries of the departing players. This shows how much teams are losing in salary based on departures alone, with data gathered from Cot’s Contracts.

We often think of payroll coming off the books as a benefit for clubs. Player contracts, especially large ones, tend not to be very valuable in their final years. Think about the Los Angeles Angels, for example, who enter the season with $60 million less in obligations. The team had large commitments to pitchers Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson. While both of those pitchers were good at points of their careers, they provided little in terms of on-field value last year. The Angels, if they so choose, can now take the roughly $40 million formerly invested in those pitchers and put it to better use. If we work under the assumption that a win costs $8.5 million in free agency, the Angels could conceivably improve themselves by around five wins by spending that money on contributing players.

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“What was working for you today?” someone asked Rays starter Brent Honeywell after his appearance in the Arizona Fall League’s Fall Stars Game. “Everything,” he said matter-of-factly, and it’s hard to argue. He struck out five in two scoreless frames and showcased his entire arsenal of impressive pitches. A few minutes later, he took me through those pitches, and discussed what’s working and what requires more attention in order for him to contribute in Tampa next season.

Let’s start with the least sexy pitch in his arsenal, the curve. It’s the newest piece, and it’s the one with which the righty has been tinkering this fall. He threw one on strike one to Anthony Alford to demonstrate what the pitch can mean to him — called strikes. “Nobody’s going to swing at a first-pitch breaking ball,” he said. “But I’m not going to throw it a whole bunch.”

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As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2016-17 free-agent market.

Owing to a combination of surprisingly declined options and also the author’s own incompetence, this year’s contract-crowdsourcing effort continues today, with ballots for three additional free agents.

Jason Hammel (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Hammel:

• Has averaged 171 IP and 1.9 WAR over last three seasons.
• Has averaged 2.2 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
• Recorded a 1.5 WAR in 166.2 IP in 2016.
• Is projected to record 2.2 WAR per 200 IP**.
• Is entering his age-34 season.
• Made $9.0M in 2016, as part of deal signed in December 2014.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a healthy starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2017 depth-chart projections now available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Hammel.

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Hello everybody, and welcome to Part 2 of this polling project. Here is a link to Monday’s Part 1, which dealt with teams in the American League. This is the National League half, so, if your favorite team or teams play in the NL, I would very much appreciate your subsequent participation! And if you like a team in the AL, but you missed the Monday post, you still have time to put in your vote before I get around to analyzing the results. This week is all about voting. The other votes you’ve made this week might come with greater stakes, but the individual votes here count for more. Be one of hundreds, after being one of millions!

This should all be simple. To effectively re-state from yesterday, I’m looking for a quick summary of your 2016 fan experience. For every NL team, there is a poll, and for every NL team poll, there are five possible answers. How did you feel about the season that was, when you consider as much as you feel like considering? What effect did the end have on the start or the middle? Are you easily excited by rebuilding movements? Did you just really love having season tickets for the first time? Don’t worry, you can’t get this wrong. Consider your feelings validated. Just let me know what those feelings are before you get on with the rest of your day.

All the polls are below. Click a team name to go straight to that part and bypass the others.

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Episode 696
Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen is the guest on this edition of the pod, during which he discusses the notable Fall Stars performances of right-handers Brent Honeywell (Tampa Bay) and Michael Kopech (Boston); addresses the differing opinions apropos Giants outfield prospect Austin Slater; and finds some similarities between Dodgers prospect Willie Calhoun’s body type and an elderly Polish woman’s.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 56 min play time.)

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Today at 5 p.m. E.T. is the deadline for teams to make a qualifying offer (QO) to their free agents. For years, this decision was straightforward: teams handed offers to anyone remotely worth it. Why not? Every player rejected them. It was a free draft pick.

Meanwhile, evidence mounted that players should adjust their strategy of “always reject.” Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, and Kendrys Morales (among others) showed that rejecting the offer wasn’t always a good idea. These players cost themselves big time.

Can you imagine the frustration they felt at reaching free agency only to see a big payday slip through their grasp? This year’s free agents are watching and learning. And teams are watching and learning with them.

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