Some time ago, in another InstaGraphs post, I mentioned something that could potentially become true about the 2016 Reds. We spend a lot of time writing about things that could potentially become true, and inevitably, a lot of those paces fall off. There are reasons for that, and that would be a subject for another post. But the 2016 numbers are official now, dammit. There’s no more “on pace for;” there only is. Here is something that is:
That’s bad! Boy, it gets worse. Here are the worst team pitching staffs since 1900, by our version of WAR:
| Team | Season | WAR |
| Reds | 2016 | -0.5 |
| Athletics | 1915 | 0.3 |
| Royals | 2006 | 0.5 |
| Twins | 1982 | 0.9 |
| Athletics | 1964 | 1.4 |
| Marlins | 1998 | 1.5 |
| Mets | 1966 | 1.7 |
| Padres | 1977 | 1.7 |
| Athletics | 1955 | 1.8 |
| Astros | 2013 | 2.0 |
To be absolutely clear about what we have here: By our numbers, the Reds just became the first pitching staff in modern history to finish with a negative WAR. It’s only slight, sure, and the difference between them and those 1915 Athletics is less than one win, but that negative symbol is conspicuous. It pushes the digits over to the right, so they can stand out. The Reds, as a collective, featured a major-league pitching staff that was a worse-than-replacement-level pitching staff. That’s almost unfathomable, is what that is.
Did the Reds really have the worst pitching staff ever? I mean, hell, I don’t know. Their pitching staff had one of the biggest home-run problems ever. By actual runs allowed, they were a little bit better than replacement-level, but you know where we stand on all that. There’s no way to actually compare across seasons or eras, not with the desired level of precision. We just don’t understand pitching that well yet, and we understand it even less the further back we go into history. We can say this: If you wanted to talk about the worst staffs of all time, you might use FanGraphs WAR as a starting point. It couldn’t make the Reds look any worse.
Reds pitchers, month by month:
The first half is what did the Reds in. In the second half, they accumulated 3.2 WAR, good enough to edge out the Twins, Braves, and Diamondbacks. In each of the last three months, the Reds’ staff finished in the black. Yet it’s appropriate that, in the final stretch, they were dead last again. All they needed were one or two more good games, to avoid finishing in the…red. But a league-worst September and October locked the Reds into place. They had a chance to run away from history, but instead they suffer its embrace.
A negative WAR. It’s not that there weren’t some success stories. Anthony DeSclafani was pretty good. Dan Straily was all right. Raisel Iglesias adjusted well to the bullpen. Brandon Finnegan got stronger in the second half. But let me tell you: 32 Reds pitchers pitched. Twenty of them finished below 0.0 WAR. Alfredo Simon allowed more runs in 58.2 innings than Jon Lester allowed in over 200. J.J. Hoover allowed more runs in 18.2 innings than Zach Britton’s allowed the last two years combined. For the Reds, 2016 was never going to be about winning. Yet it also definitely wasn’t supposed to be about this.
To be clear, there are three postings here.
Location: Denver
Description:
This individual will collaborate with the Research and Development team and will assist in the development and maintenance of a player information and projection system along with other statistical analysis and on field strategy. This position requires strong statistical development skills and experience as well as a demonstrated ability for independent curiosity and a commitment to excellence while working within a team framework.
Responsibilities:
Ben and Sam conduct multiple Mike Trout drafts and discuss DJ LeMahieu’s batting title, the AL Cy Young race, Vin Scully’s sign-off, and more.
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Depending on your perspective, you might think that Eric Hosmer had a career season. After all, he wasn’t just an All-Star, he was the All-Star Game MVP! He hit 20 homers for the first time — his 25 dingers were six more than his previous season best. And he drove in 104 runs — 11 more than his previous best. And yet, for the third time in his career, he was a replacement player or worse in terms of WAR. Did Eric Hosmer just have the worst 100-RBI season on record?
Importantly, for the Cubs, this season isn’t over. Obviously, this season isn’t over — in a sense their real season hasn’t begun. We’ve known the Cubs would make the playoffs for something like five and a half months, and only now do they get to compete for the grand prize. Because there are games remaining, this might not seem like the best time to examine the 2016 Cubs through a historical lens.
I believe the opposite, though. At last, we have final, official regular-season statistics. Those are the stats that matter the most. And even though the Cubs are clearly Team No. 1 moving forward, the odds are still better that they don’t win the World Series. They’re probably going to lose, somewhere and somehow. And I don’t want to allow for playoff emotion to color the way people feel about this analysis. This season, the Cubs won eight more games than anyone else. The Cubs had a better run differential than anyone else, by a margin of 68. Clearly, they were really good. But how good, historically, when you’re talking about more than 100 years?
I’ve got a vote for American League Manager of the Year this season and I’m terrified. My first vote as a member of the Baseball Writer’s Association, and it’s the impossible one.
Maybe impossible is too tough a word. I’m sure I’ll figure something out in time to submit a vote. But evaluating the productivity of a manager just seems so difficult. We’ve seen efforts that use the difference between projected and actual wins, or between “true talent” estimations for the team and their actual outcomes. But those attribute all sorts of random chance to the manager’s machinations.
I’d like to instead identify measurable moments where a manager exerts a direct influence on his team, assign those values or ranks, and see where each current manager sits. So what are those measurable moments?
The 2016 regular season has come to an end, and tomorrow, the postseason begins. The Blue Jays and Orioles square off for a winner-take-all game to determine who advances to play the Rangers in the ALDS, and then on Wednesday, the Giants and Mets do the same to see who gets to try to take down the Cubs. Both games look like they could be a lot of fun, with lots of homers possible in the AL Wild Card game, and lots of strikeouts likely in the NL match-up, which will feature Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner.
I know the play-in games aren’t everyone’s cup of tea, but I’m a fan of this format. The Wild Card games are some of the best drama baseball provides, and starting off the postseason with a couple of elimination games allows the playoffs to get off to a very exciting start.
It is, of course, a wild and dramatic change from MLB’s regular season. That six month marathon tests teams on their depth, on how well they can mix and match different pieces when injuries strike, on whether they have enough good role players throughout the roster to make up for the inevitable slumps from the star players. The postseason is much more of a sprint, a three week attempt to have a couple key guys get hot and carry the team to 11 or 12 wins in 15 to 20 games. Rotations shrink, bullpen usage goes up dramatically, and one player really can make a dramatic difference in a team’s results.
Postseason baseball is a very different game than regular season baseball. And because of that, it is both great and terrible at the same time.
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: Peanut butter jelly time.
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| 12:00 |
: No dancing bananas. Just shut up and eat your sandwich.
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| 12:01 |
: I’m a big Dodgers fan, what is the teams #1 concern?
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| 12:01 |
: There’s some angry Babylonian god that’s focused primarily on making their starting pitchers injured.
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| 12:01 |
: Or having to go through the Cubs at some point
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| 12:01 |
: If a team made all of their signings and trades based strictly on ZiPS, never allowing themselves to allow their own intuitions to have any affect, how much better or worse off would they be than a typical organization? What type of great moves would they pull off? What would their biggest blunders be?
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One can be forgiven for having forgotten about the Wyckoff v. Office of the Commissioner of Baseball lawsuit. The class action case — filed back in July 2015 by Jordan Wyckoff, a former scout for the Kansas City Royals — accused Major League Baseball and its teams of violating both federal antitrust and employment law by colluding to deprive amateur and professional scouts both of the minimum wage and overtime compensation. Specifically, the case contended that MLB teams have unlawfully agreed not to compete with one another for the services of their scouts, with the result that wages for these employees have, in some cases, been depressed to as little as $5 per hour once all of their various job duties have been accounted for.
Late last year, MLB filed a motion asking the court to dismiss Wyckoff’s antitrust claims under its historic antitrust exemption. At the same time, MLB also argued that the suit’s minimum-wage claims should be dismissed against all but the Royals, since Wyckoff — the only plaintiff named in the suit who was asserting a violation of the minimum-wage and overtime rules — had never been employed by any of the other 29 MLB clubs.
Since then, the parties have waited… and waited… and then waited some more for the court to issue a ruling. That wait mercifully came to an end this past Thursday when Judge Paul Gardephe finally released his long-anticipated decision, more than nine months after MLB’s motion had first been filed.
In his opinion, Judge Gardephe granted MLB all of the relief it had requested, dismissing the overwhelming majority of Wyckoff’s case. As a result, while Wyckoff can continue to pursue his claim for back-pay from the Royals, any hopes he may have had that his suit would spur more systemic changes to the market for MLB scouts appear to have fallen short.
Episode 686
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the dissatisfied guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.
This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 01 hr 02 min play time.)
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