Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Boston | 19:10 ET
Pineda (125.1 IP, 77 xFIP-) vs. Rodriguez (57.2 IP, 115 xFIP-)
When the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm for determining the watchability of a game recommends a Red Sox-Yankees contest as the day’s most promising — when that sort of thing happens, I understand the disappointment Victor Frankenstein must have experienced when faced with the great disaster of his experiment. Like Frankenstein, I’m abhorred by my creation. Like Frankenstein, I would probably not mind if it incinerated itself at “the Northernmost extremity of the globe.” But it’s only an algorithm. So it can’t even do that.

On the plus side, hot, hot, hot prospect Andrew Benintendi is likely to start once again tonight.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

By now, we’re used to seeing once-starters transition to the bullpen and have successful careers. We’re used to the mold. It’s a hard-throwing righty who’s got a fastball and a slider but just can’t master a consistent changeup. He gets moved to the bullpen, he ditches the changeup entirely, he ramps the velocity up a few ticks, and the fastball/slider combo dominates in one-inning bursts. It’s become a rather common career arc. And it’s almost the precise opposite of Jeff Samardzija’s career arc.

After playing football for four years at the University of Notre Dame, Samardzija cracked the big leagues two years after being selected in the fifth round of the 2006 MLB draft, and after four years pitching out of the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen, made the rare reliever-to-starter conversion. Not only that, but he actually reduced his arsenal when he became a starter. Usually, it’s the other way around. So much about Samardzija’s career seems backwards.

From an ESPN article from 2012:

Samardzija was tough against the Atlanta Braves on Monday as he got some much needed distance from a terrible June. Last month he added a curveball into the mix and might have leaned on it a bit too much.

“These last few starts we have been feeling things out, seeing what works and what doesn’t,” said Samardzija, whose next outing will be Saturday at New York. “But I was kind of fed up with walking guys and stuff so I really wanted to get into the zone, and I knew I could get into the zone with my slider.”

Starters-turned-relievers have no qualms with abandoning their problem pitches, because they don’t have to worry about giving batters multiple looks in order to turn over a lineup several times. Every batter a reliever faces, he’s only going to face once, so he trusts his best stuff and lets the hitter have it. Starters do have to worry about multiple looks, and so theoretically, the wider the arsenal, the better, as long as the pitches are effective. Jeff Samardzija used to throw a curveball, but once he transitioned into his starter role, he began to struggle. He identified the curve as being no longer effective, so he ditched it. From August 8, 2012 to July 23, 2016, Jeff Samardzija threw zero curveballs.

In the second inning of Samardzija’s July 24 start in New York against the Yankees, Starlin Castro saw something he couldn’t have possibly expected:

Read the rest of this entry »

It seems as though every year we ask the question “Is Player X having the greatest season by a relief pitcher in history?” Craig Kimbrel’s 2012 performance raised the question, as did Wade Davis’ performances both in 2014 and 2015. This year, the guy putting up a season which threatens the record books is Orioles closer Zach Britton.

On April 30th against the White Sox, Britton took the mound in the ninth inning of a tie game. He struck out the first two batters he faced and then twisted his ankle trying to field what ended up being a bunt single for Adam Eaton. Britton had to leave the game due to the injury and the Orioles brought in Vance Worley to replace him. Worley promptly walked a batter before giving up a single which scored Eaton and ultimately lost the game for the Orioles. That was the last earned run Zach Britton allowed. Go ahead and read the first three words of this paragraph again… that’s right, the last earned run Zach Britton allowed was on April 30th.

Three days before that outing against Chicago, Britton yielded a two-out run on an RBI single which was only made possible when the runner on first was able to advance to second via defensive indifference — which itself was only made possible by the Orioles’ three-run lead. To find an earned run that’s clearly attributable to Britton and not injury or strategic circumstances beyond his control, you have to go all the way back to April 11th, his fourth game of the season, when he allowed a home run to Mookie Betts to lead off the ninth.

And there, in two paragraphs, we have relived every single earned run Zach Britton has allowed during the 2016 season — all three of them. Last night, he made his 38th appearance since allowing his last earned run, which moved him into a tie with Brett Cecil and Craig Kimbrel for the longest streak in the Baseball-Reference Play Index era (since 1913). One more outing without allowing an earned run and the record will be all Britton’s.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday, we learned that Prince Fielder’s career has come to an end following his second major neck surgery in just the last three years. Jeff Sullivan provided a fitting eulogy for Fielder’s career a couple days ago. While the news is certainly devastating for Fielder on a personal level, this post concerns another matter — namely, the potential financial implications of Fielder’s injury, both for the Texas Rangers and Fielder himself. At the heart of the matter: the nine-year, $214 million contract Fielder signed in 2012, a deal that guarantees him another $24 million annually from 2017 through 2020.

For starters, it’s important to note that Fielder is not officially retiring from baseball, but rather has been declared medically disabled and therefore is no longer considered to be physically able to play the game. This is an important distinction legally, because had Fielder voluntarily decided to retire, then he would have forfeited the roughly $104 million remaining on his contract. Instead, by being declared medically unable to play, Fielder remains entitled to the full amount he’s owed under his contract.

Because Texas reportedly has an insurance policy covering his contract in the event of injury, the Rangers will not be on the hook for the entirety of the team’s remaining financial obligation to Fielder. Instead, the club will apparently only be responsible for paying Fielder $9 million per year from 2017 to 2020, with the rest of his salary covered by the team’s insurer (who will reportedly contribute another $9 million per year) and the Detroit Tigers (who are on the hook for the final $6 million per season, based on the terms of the trade that brought Fielder to Texas in exchange for Ian Kinsler in 2013).

That having been said, although the precise terms of the Rangers’ insurance policy are not publicly available, it appears likely that this $9 million in cost savings will not come without some strings attached for the club. Moreover, it’s also possible that the team’s insurance company could still yet find a way to avoid paying some or all of its share of Fielder’s contract.

Read the rest of this entry »

Just about one year ago, the Houston Astros were trying to get to the playoffs, and they decided Carlos Gomez was worth a bushel of pretty good prospects. In the present day, the Astros are again trying to get to the playoffs, and they decided Carlos Gomez isn’t worth much of anything. Wednesday, Gomez was designated for assignment, and that’s a tough break for someone coming up on free agency. Of course, the damage was already done.

You might not realize how swift the fall has been. Though the scenarios aren’t exactly the same, Gomez has kind of Shelby Millered. On the season, Gomez has been among the least-valuable regulars. He’s not even 31 years old. And between 2013 – 2014, here are the position-player top five, by WAR:

1. Mike Trout, 18.5 WAR
2. Andrew McCutchen, 15.3
3. Josh Donaldson, 14.1
4. Carlos Gomez, 13.1
5. Miguel Cabrera, 12.6

McCutchen this year has been a disappointment, but the Pirates aren’t on the verge of dropping him or anything. The Astros have set Gomez free, and anyone can have him. Someone will take the chance; the track record alone demands it. Plenty of team officials will look at Gomez and see a player they might be able to rescue. Yet I honestly don’t know how to be encouraged.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam banter about the longest-lasting plays in baseball, then answer listener emails about the Braves with a man advantage, Francisco Mejia’s hitting streak, dealing with Fenway Park poles, new unwritten rules, and more.

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Some of the best numbers in the upper levels of professional baseball are presently working out of the Dodgers bullpen. I don’t mean Kenley Jansen. I mean, I guess I do mean Kenley Jansen, because that certainly applies well to him, but he’s not the focus here. You know about Jansen and you know that he’s dominant. There’s somebody else in there you probably don’t know. You wouldn’t have had a reason to know him, really. Not before this year, but this year, Grant Dayton has taken off.

Here’s the way this usually works: We spot someone with crazy statistics, and then we investigate to try to determine whether the player is for real. I’m not going to pretend like that isn’t what’s happening here, but we all have to start somewhere. We all need some initial reason to start to like a given player. What I hope will come across: Dayton’s numbers aren’t just ordinary-good. They’re unbelievable-good. And now that I’ve watched Dayton pitch in the majors, I’m an even bigger fan. I think you might become one as well.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the third installment of our division-by-division look at team ball-in-play profiles, based on data accumulated through the All-Star break. In the first two pieces, we identified the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers as the best “true-talent” clubs in their respective divisions; their recent surges couldn’t have been timed better. Today, we take a macro-type view of the plate-appearance frequency and BIP exit speed/angle detail for AL East clubs.

About 90 games’ worth of balls in play is a fairly substantial sample size, one that enables us to make fairly educated guesses about the true talent level of each team. Let’s use this information to project true-talent team won-lost records and compare them to their actual marks at the break, examining the reasons for material variation along the way. Read the rest of this entry »

Imagine being Hyun Soo Kim. You’re signed by the Baltimore Orioles to a deal that’s on the small side by American standards, the kind of deal that comes without fanfare or breathless video crews. You’re optimistic about your chances of succeeding in the majors. You spend your spring training calmly adjusting to a new league and country — and then, suddenly, you’re in the middle of a maelstrom when you opt to refuse a minor-league assignment, a right you negotiated into your contract for a reason.

All that might be firmly in the rear-view mirror by now — “I consider spring training in the past” said the Orioles outfielder before a game against the Athletics — but that sort of backstory would make any of us a little uncomfortable. The good news is that the outfielder finally made all of those adjustments, on his own time, and is now getting comfortable in this new situation.

Read the rest of this entry »