Seemingly every season, a baseball team scores noticeably more runs that we think they should. I’m not talking about teams that perform better than their preseason projections, but rather the teams that manage to score a lot more runs than their actual in-season numbers suggest they should. If we’re using the shorthand, I’m talking about teams who score more runs than their BaseRuns calculation supports.

Whenever you point this out regarding a specific team, you’re likely going to be met with skepticism. Some of that skepticism is very justified, as no single model (such as BaseRuns) can explain the real world perfectly. But some of the skepticism is less justified and devolves merely into a group of local fans suggesting that you don’t respect their team. At its core, this is usually going to be an argument about sequencing — or, as it’s sometimes known, clutch hitting. Is the team in question simply having a string of good timing or are they actually doing something to impact the order of their events?

History tells us that the answer is usually the former, but alternative hypotheses are always worth exploring. One of this season’s examples, the Reds, break the mold a bit. Instead of being a decent offense that’s scoring more than a decent number of runs, this year’s clutch kings are one of the worst offenses in baseball but are managing to look respectable given excellent timing.

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Try to imagine the ideal sinker. What do you see? Probably a pitch that sits in the high 90s, right? And features tremendous sink and fade. And induces ground ball after ground ball. And, because it’s being thrown with max effort, probably one coming out of a reliever’s hand, right?

If you’re imagining a pitch that meets all four of those criteria, you probably see Blake Treinen throwing it. Or Sam Dyson. Or Zach Britton. If not, you should be.

If you limit the pool of commonly used sinkers to those which average 94 or more mph and then sort for sink, those three names soar to the top. And each gets to that movement in a different way.

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The 2016 trade deadline season culminated with 18 trades on Monday, wrapping a month that saw 45 different deals struck over the course of the month. We wrote about basically every trade, often from multiple angles, and attempted to break down each team’s expected return for each deal. Now, as a bit of a recap, I’m going to look at my favorite acquisitions over the last month. Today, we’ll focus on the buyer side of things, looking at the teams that I think did the best in upgrading their roster for the stretch run. Tomorrow, we’ll tackle the seller side of things, looking at who looks to have gotten the most future value, relative to what we expected, by moving veterans for younger talent.

Keep in mind that I’m not just looking at the teams that improved themselves the most, but also at the acquisition cost; you can make a big splash and add a few wins to your roster while still hurting your franchise long-term. Of course, it’s also easy to make a minor deal that doesn’t cost you much and doesn’t improve your chances of winning all that much either, so while there were some smaller deals that I liked, I gave preference to the deals that I think could have a real impact on the playoff races. These are the deals that I think helped contenders upgrade in a significant way without sacrificing too much long-term value in order to do so.

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Recently, we started running out of t-shirts. As such, we thought it was high time to design some new ones. And design them we did. But we didn’t just stop at t-shirts. Oh no, constant reader, we went the extra mile this time. In addition to t-shirts, which now are available in both men’s and women’s sizes, we now have raglan t-shirts (again, both men’s and woman’s kinds), zip hoodie sweatshirts, baby onesies and hats. You might think of this as the holiday season come many months earlier than normal. And you’d be right.

The person we have to thank for all of this shiny new garb is Aaron Gershman of Creative Sentencing, who you should absolutely hire for your next design project.

Let’s take a look at the designs, which are available for purchase at this very moment.

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When a top prospect completes his ascension through the minor leagues and begins to carve out the early stages of a big-league career, a little war wages in all our heads, whether we know it or not. It’s the battle between our pre-debut perception of that player and our post-debut perception. Really, it’s just a variation of the age-old debate of scouts vs. stats.

When a player debuts, our knowledge of his skill set and abilities is limited almost entirely to the information found in public scouting reports. Sure, there’s minor-league numbers, too, but those can often be misleading or difficult to translate. Early on in a player’s career, the scouting report trumps all.

The more we see of the player in the majors, though, the more data we collect, and the balance of power regarding what informs our perception begins to shift from the scouting reports to the stats. The major-league stats become not only the more recent information but the more detailed. Sometimes, the data aligns with what the scouts reported. Other times, the two are at odds. It’s up to the individual to decide how much weight to give to either side, and why.

Twins rookie Max Kepler hit three homers against the Indians the other day, and has been among baseball’s best hitters since the All-Star Break. Digging through his scouting reports recently, something stuck out. Any emphasis that follows is mine.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Pomeranz (116.1 IP, 90 xFIP-) vs. Miranda (2.0 IP, 38 xFIP-)
Cuban left-hander Ariel Miranda, signed originally by Baltimore for $725,000 and recently just traded to Seattle for Wade Miley, is expected to record his first major-league start tonight. Though lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen gave the 27-year-old a future-value grade of only 40, he also suggested that said grade didn’t fully account for all the possible outcomes regarding Miranda.

From Longenhagen’s report:

While he only projects as a back-end starter or up-and-down type of pitcher, I think there’s a chance the Mariners have netted themselves an arm that can compete every fifth day rather than one upon which they call merely in emergencies. Cuban prospects have been volatile because, at least in part, of how inconsistently they play in real games leading up to their MiLB/MLB careers. It’s possible Miranda is just now beginning to hit his stride and that the Mariners have caught some lightning in a bottle, even if it’s just an inning-eating, slightly above-replacement kind of lightning.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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“Pitchers’ duels or slugfests?” It’s a lot like asking “beer or tacos?” There’s a pretty good chance you like both. At the same time, you might have a preference. Some would rather see an 11-10 game than a 1-0 game. Others would prefer to see a pair of pitchers match zeroes into the late innings.

What about the men behind the microphones? Do they consider one more enjoyable than the other? I asked a cross section of MLB broadcasters for their preference — pitchers’ duel or slugfest — urging that they try not to stay neutral. Here is what they had to say.

———

Uri Berenguer, Boston Red Sox (Spanish-language) radio: “It seems to get more exciting when it’s a slugfest, but after too many of them, it’s too much excitement. Too much of a good thing isn’t a good thing… except when it comes to pitching. My preference is the pitchers’ duel.

“I really appreciate the craft of pitching. There’s something to be said about a pitcher who really knows how to manipulate the ball and make the best hitters in the world look silly. When you have one of those guys on the mound on a given night, it’s impressive. When you have two of those guys going at it, that’s baseball.”

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Yesterday I wrote about the emergence of Mariners reliever Edwin Diaz, in part because, on Tuesday, I watched him record his first career big-league save in dominating fashion. I was watching the Mariners and the Red Sox because that game was of some interest to me. I wasn’t watching the A’s and the Angels, because that game was not of some interest to me. It would’ve been of interest to almost no one — the game had zero playoff implications. What happened at the end of that game, though, was that Cam Bedrosian recorded his first career big-league save in dominating fashion. If I’m going to be honest, I’ve been more aware of Diaz’s success than I have of Bedrosian’s. Right now I want to try to make up for that.

Even though Bedrosian was a first-round pick in 2010, I first became aware of him in 2014. He got my attention by steamrolling through the minors — when he was first brought up to the majors, it was because in 24 minor-league innings, he’d struck out 45 batters, allowing a .285 OPS. The results were obscene, but they didn’t repeat in the bigs, so Bedrosian started bouncing back and forth. Between later big-league promotions, Bedrosian threw nine innings in the minors, striking out 22 while allowing another .285 OPS. Bedrosian made a mockery of lesser opponents. His inability to get outs with the Angels was frustrating, and I gradually lost interest. Sometimes the lower-level freaks don’t become upper-level freaks.

With the Angels in 2014, Bedrosian was bad. With the Angels in 2015, he was hardly any better. With the Angels in 2016, he’s been one of the game’s best relievers. Only Zach Britton has him in ERA. That’s a fine name to look up to.

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Ben and Sam banter about a hard-to-believe baseball ad, then answer listener emails about the NL Central, GM metadata, Aaron Sanchez, deceptive debuts and more.

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