Best Final Seasons, Part One

A few years back, I wrote a fourpart series about the worst final seasons for good players. It was inspired by Willie Mays, who very prominently had a bad final season, but was far from the worst season. Now, David Ortiz has inspired the flip side of the coin – the best final season. The Large Father is off to quite a hot start, and so some people have asked, how good does he have to be to produce the best final season of all-time? As you’ll see, the answer is he’ll have to do quite a lot.

Read the rest of this entry »


NERD Game Scores for Monday, May 16, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Arizona | 21:40 ET
Green (MLB Debut) vs. Ray (35.1 IP, 100 xFIP-)
“Who is Chad Green?” is a question likely being asked today by the American public and also periodically by Chad Green himself. The deeper, ontological implications of the question reside outside the scope of this brief entry. What follows, however, are five statements regarding who Chad Green is.

  • An 11th-round selection (in 2013) by the Tigers out of Louisville.
  • A piece in the trade that sent Justin Wilson to Detroit in December.
  • The author of impressive strikeout and walk rates as a professional.
  • The owner of a fastball that reaches the mid-90s.
  • The owner of maybe less impressive secondary pitches.

Read the rest of this entry »


2016 Broadcaster Rankings (TV): Intro and #31-32

Roughly four years ago now, the present author facilitated a crowdsourcing project designed to place a “grade” on each of the league’s television and radio broadcast teams. The results weren’t intended to represent the objective quality or skill of the relevant announcers, but rather to provide a clue as to which broadcast teams are likely to appeal most (or least) to the readers of this site. Consider: the average telecast of a major-league game offers four distinct audio feeds — which is to say, the radio and television commentary both for the home and road clubs. The idea of these broadcast rankings was to give readers an opportunity to make an informed decision about how they consume a telecast.

The results of that original exercise have been useful as a complement to the dumb NERD scores published by the author in these pages. Four years later, however, they’ve become much less useful. In the meantime, a number of the broadcast teams cited in that original effort have changed personnel. It’s possible that the tastes of this site’s readers have changed, also.

About a month ago, the present author began the process of reproducing that original crowdsourcing effort, facilitating a ballots for this site’s readers. This post represents the first installment of the corresponding results.

Before examining the rankings in earnest, three observations of varying merit:

Broadcasting Is Difficult
Assuming a roughly average time of game (about three hours each) and full major-league season (162 games), it’s probably not incorrect to say that a club typically plays about 500 hours of baseball each year. Broadcasters are tasked with providing some manner of spoken content for the duration of those 500 hours. Radio announcers are compelled to relay the sport’s sometimes complex machinations in real time — while also supplementing their narratives with analysis. Television commentary might actually pose a greater challenge. As the well-respected radio voice of the Rangers, Eric Nadel, suggested on this site’s podcast, the relative freedom provided by video — which renders much descriptive activity moot — conspires only to facilitate more opportunities for a broadcaster to embarrass himself. For the endurance required of the job alone, broadcasting is difficult.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio: Dayn Perry in the Jungles of Pity

Episode 652
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the fetid creature on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

This episode of the program is sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 12 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


NERD Game Scores for Sunday, May 15, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Detroit at Baltimore | 13:35 ET
Fulmer (15.0 IP, 83 xFIP-) vs. Gausman (25.0 IP, 88 xFIP-)
Over the first three years and nearly 300 innings of his career, Baltimore’s Kevin Gausman produced better-than-average fielding-independent numbers while conceding actual runs at a worse-than-average rate. Over the first three starts and 15 innings of his career, Detroit’s Michael Fulmer has endured the precise same outcome. Now in his fourth season, Gausman has retained the same basic peripherals — but is preventing runs at a rate roughly 50% better than league average. Is it possible that one, observing Gausman, is observing Michael Fulmer’s future self? And if that is the case, is it dangerous for him to operate in such close proximity to Michael Fulmer’s present self? The answers are to be revealed!

Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Manaea-Giles Adversity, Astros, M’s Future SS, more

Sean Manaea got shelled at Fenway Park on Tuesday night. Making just his third big-league appearance, the Oakland A’s southpaw allowed eight runs on 10 hits in just two-and-two-third innings.

The following day, I asked the promising young hurler what it feels like to stand on the mound in front of 35,000 people and get hit as hard as he did.

“It’s… I’ve never been in this situation before,” responded Manaea. “I had a really bad game n Myrtle Beach two years ago, but there were only a couple thousand people in the stands. To be here at Fenway and do that bad, and hear the hometown crowd as I walked off the field… it sucked. But it is what it is. All I can do is acknowledge that it happened and move on.”

Acknowledging what happened used to be an issue. Back when he allowed seven runs over two innings against Myrtle Beach — “The worst I’d done up until last night” — Manaea had trouble owning up to adversity. Read the rest of this entry »


NERD Game Scores for Saturday, May 14, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Colorado | 20:10 ET
Verrett (21.1 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. Butler (14.0 IP, 86 xFIP-)
Each of Logan Verrett’s two starts this season have been impressive — both in terms of run prevention and fielding-indepedent indicators. Over two starts and 12.0 innings, Verrett has conceded zero runs while also producing an 87 xFIP- (better than his numbers in relief). This is promising. And unlikely to continue. The probability of Verrett becoming even an average major-league starter would appear low. Neither his statistical track record nor his stuff suggest its likelihood. But here’s something else that’s unlikely: any one person existing in the first place. And yet here we all are, making bad decisions amongst each other.

In conclusion, here’s footage of Verrett’s most effective out-pitch, his slider:

Read the rest of this entry »


The Best of FanGraphs: May 9-13, 2016

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
Read the rest of this entry »


Mike Morin Has Baseball’s Silliest Changeup

The slowest changeup thrown by an Angels pitcher does not belong to Jered Weaver, he of the 82-mph fastball. No, it belongs to right-handed reliever Mike Morin, whose fastball has touched 95 this year. And for that reason, I hereby declare Mike Morin’s changeup to be The Silliest Changeup in Baseball.

I’ve been wanting to write about this for a while, but despite solid peripherals, Morin struggled to prevent runs last year, and so all he had was this silly, silly changeup. As things stand now, though, he’s got a 1.84 ERA and a 3.10 FIP, and the changeup is still preposterous, so I figure this is my chance.

The changeup is silly for mostly this one reason:
Read the rest of this entry »


A Letter of Farewell

Dear Fangraphs community,

This will be the last post I write for Fangraphs. I am stepping aside to let someone else have the same wonderful exposure I was given, where you readers are hungry for information and willing to debate. I’ve enjoyed the feedback and getting to meet and talk to a great many new people, both in baseball and in the blogosphere. I hope you as the recipients have gotten at least a bit of the same enjoyment out of the content I have written over the past seven months.

When I took this job at the beginning of the offseason, I saw it as a unique opportunity to see a ton of players and become better as a scout, and I feel I have accomplished that. I have a lot of ideas and research interests that spawned out of this experience, and some that have been waiting a few years for my full attention. With all my time going into doing the best I could for this space, many of my other projects have been put on the back burner, and now it’s time I branch out in the interest of some new endeavors.

Read the rest of this entry »