With just over a week of the regular season in the books, it’s high time we concluded our division-by-division, ball-in-play-based analysis of 2015 starting-pitcher performance. Last time, we considered the AL Central. Today, it’s the AL West.

First, some ground rules. To come up with an overall player population roughly equal to one starting rotation per team, the minimum number of batted balls allowed with Statcast readings was set at 243. Pitchers are listed with their 2015 division mates; those who were traded during the season will appear in the division in which they compiled the most innings. Pitchers are listed in “tru” ERA order. For those who have not read my previous articles on the topic, “tru” ERA is the ERA pitchers “should” have compiled based on the actual BIP frequency and authority they allowed relative to the league. Here we go:

Starting Pitcher BIP Profiles – AL West

	AVG MPH	FB/LD MPH	GB MPH	POP %	FLY %	LD %	GB %	ADJ C	K %	BB %	ERA –	FIP –	TRU –
Keuchel	85.78	90.55	83.52	2.4%	17.2%	18.7%	61.7%	83	23.7%	5.6%	62	73	69
McHugh	86.16	89.25	85.12	3.9%	30.7%	20.0%	45.4%	85	19.9%	6.2%	97	89	78
F.Hernandez	88.81	92.10	87.70	2.0%	24.9%	16.9%	56.2%	92	23.1%	7.0%	88	95	79
Gray	88.85	91.89	87.55	2.5%	28.2%	16.6%	52.7%	86	20.3%	7.1%	68	86	80
Iwakuma	88.71	91.87	87.20	2.1%	29.0%	18.5%	50.4%	100	21.5%	4.1%	88	93	82
McCullers	89.16	92.62	85.87	3.0%	28.8%	21.8%	46.5%	99	24.8%	8.3%	80	81	83
Richards	87.48	92.35	85.20	2.9%	25.1%	17.1%	54.9%	88	20.4%	8.8%	91	96	85
Weaver	86.82	91.59	82.47	6.0%	40.5%	19.0%	34.4%	86	13.5%	4.9%	116	120	89
Shoemaker	87.37	91.81	83.55	3.9%	38.5%	18.5%	39.2%	101	20.4%	6.2%	111	114	90
Happ	89.72	91.82	89.71	4.1%	30.0%	24.3%	41.6%	104	21.1%	6.3%	90	85	91
Hahn	86.56	90.70	84.23	1.3%	21.6%	24.5%	52.6%	92	15.8%	6.2%	84	88	92
Kazmir	87.67	92.37	84.43	2.6%	34.7%	19.8%	42.9%	101	20.3%	7.7%	77	99	93
Santiago	89.38	92.96	85.73	5.9%	47.7%	16.5%	29.9%	99	20.9%	9.2%	90	119	94
Elias	88.40	91.68	86.41	3.3%	33.1%	19.4%	44.2%	98	19.8%	9.0%	103	113	94
T.Walker	90.60	92.96	88.48	3.9%	35.1%	22.4%	38.6%	115	22.2%	5.7%	114	101	95
CJ.Wilson	90.07	92.52	88.70	3.4%	31.6%	21.9%	43.1%	103	19.9%	8.3%	97	100	96
J.Chavez	89.21	93.11	85.85	5.4%	28.6%	22.9%	43.1%	110	20.2%	7.1%	104	96	99
Gallardo	88.53	89.92	87.69	2.4%	26.3%	22.0%	49.3%	96	15.3%	8.6%	85	100	102
C.Lewis	89.47	92.22	86.47	3.5%	40.8%	22.0%	33.7%	111	16.5%	4.9%	116	104	104
Feldman	88.34	90.80	87.63	1.7%	25.8%	23.6%	48.9%	101	13.5%	6.0%	97	108	105
Heaney	89.95	93.39	86.67	4.0%	35.5%	22.2%	38.3%	117	17.8%	6.4%	87	93	109
Graveman	90.07	93.10	87.59	1.3%	27.3%	21.4%	50.0%	115	15.3%	7.6%	101	115	116
N.Martinez	89.04	91.44	87.38	3.6%	30.1%	24.0%	42.3%	109	13.8%	8.2%	99	124	116
AVERAGE	88.53	91.87	86.31	3.3%	30.9%	20.6%	45.2%	100	19.1%	6.9%	93	100	93

Most of the column headers are self-explanatory, including average BIP speed (overall and by BIP type), BIP type frequency, K and BB rates, and traditional ERA-, FIP-, and “tru” ERA-. Each pitchers’ Adjusted Contact Score (ADJ C) is also listed. Again, for those of you who have not read my articles on the topic, Unadjusted Contact Score is derived by removing Ks and BBs from opposing hitters’ batting lines, assigning run values to all other events, and comparing them to a league average of 100. Adjusted Contact Score applies league-average production to each pitchers’ individual actual BIP type and velocity mix, and compares it to league average of 100.

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Yesterday I published my annual reminder that it’s never too early to look at the standings. That is, even though we’re through just one week, the Orioles have done themselves a hell of a favor by starting out 6-0. Now, on the flip side, it can be too early to look at the leaderboards. Like, Tyler White is first in baseball in WAR. If you want to find some real signal, you just have to be patient. But sometimes I just can’t help myself. I mean, I practically live on this website, so of course I’m going to go exploring. And, related to that — it’s been just six games, but the Rays are already up to something.

It’s not something entirely new. I wrote about this when the Rays traded for Corey Dickerson, but during last season, the Rays switched to taking a more aggressive offensive approach. So if you were curious, no, that hasn’t been abandoned. The Rays hitters remain aggressive today, and based on the early indications, they’re going to be more aggressive than anyone else.

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Previous editions: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati  / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles (AL) / Los Angeles (NL) / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York (AL) / New York (NL)  / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / St. Louis.

Last week, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Tampa Bay Rays. In this companion piece, I look at that same Tampa farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. The Rays have the eighth-best farm system in baseball according to KATOH.

There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.

*****

1. Jake Bauers, 1B (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 8.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV

Bauers spent his age-19 season squaring off against High-A and Double-A pitchers, and more than held his own. Bauers didn’t show any glaring weaknesses offensively, and rode a 14% strikeout rate to a .273/.347/.422 batting line. Bauers doesn’t have the power of a traditional first baseman, but he excels in every other offensive area. Considering how young he’s been for his level, that’s quite an accomplishment.

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Ben and Sam banter about the most popular picks in BP’s “Beat PECOTA” game, then discuss Rich Hill, the Cubs’ strong start, Ray Searage’s promising pupils, and more.

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When Chris Colabello’s first ball in play this season, a line drive with a recorded exit velocity of 103 mph, went directly into the glove of opposing shortstop Brad Miller, it seemed a cruel yet fitting reminder that nothing is given at the start of a new season.

Not even for Colabello, who appears to have used a strong 2015 season to finally lock down a secure job in the major leagues. He produced offense at a level 42% above league average last year when controlling for park factors, and he did so for a playoff team, eventually forcing his way into more than the short side of a platoon with Justin Smoak. He’s not set to play every day for the Toronto Blue Jays this year, but he should have the larger share of a time-split at first.

He appears to have, at long last, made it. Assuming he can keep it up, that is, which few think is a certainty. For most of his baseball career, people have been looking for reasons why Colabello won’t succeed, even now that he’s doing so.

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Bryce Harper’s at-bats have become events. Maybe more so than any other player in baseball, a Harper at-bat is the kind of thing that you set an alert for on MLB.TV so you can switch over to the Nationals’ feed when he comes up. He averaged more than four pitches per plate appearance last year, so you’re probably getting your money’s worth, and the allure of seeing a baseball hit 450 to center is ever present. A Harper at-bat is a spectacle, not only because of the raw power, but because of the craft.

I was one of those people keeping tabs on each Harper at-bat yesterday, except this time it wasn’t because I was enticed by the power. This time, it was because I wanted to see if he’d strike out. He did. Which is a pretty normal thing for baseball players to do. Except this time, it was noteworthy, because Harper hadn’t yet struck out this year. Entering the game, he was just one of two qualified hitters to have not yet K’d, and the other was Melky Cabrera, who never K’s. Cabrera’s offensive game is built around putting the bat on the ball, without much care for authority. Harper is all about authority, and it’s already been on display, which makes his strikeout-averse start to the season feel like it means more than Cabrera’s.

Harper went 21 plate appearances into the season without being sat down on strikes, a streak which lasted four games and then some. Last year, he only went four games without a strikeout once, and never beyond that. Last year’s streak lasted 22 place appearances. There was a 22-plate-appearance run in 2013. He didn’t set any personal records — though if you want to get technical, you could extend back to last year and say he actually went 28 consecutive plate appearances without a whiff — but it also means the first we’ve seen of Harper this year is, in this one particular way, Harper at his best. For a 23-year-old coming off a historic MVP season, that’s fun, because we spent the offseason wondering what he’d do next. Maybe it’s “never strike out.”

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Baseball can be slow to change. We’ve had this idea for decades that certain pitch types have platoon splits, and that you should avoid them in certain situations because of it. Righties, don’t throw sliders to lefties! It’s Baseball 101.

Think of the changeup, too. “Does he have a changeup?” or some variation on the theme is the first question uttered of any prospect on the way up. It’s shorthand for “can he be a starter?” because we think of changeups as weapons against the opposite hand. A righty will need one to get lefties out and turn the lineup over, back to the other righties, who will be dispatched using breaking balls.

As with all conventional wisdom, this notion of handedness and pitch types should be rife for manipulation. Say you could use your changeup effectively against same-handed hitters, for example. You could have a fastball/changeup starter that was equally effective against both hands, despite the history of platoon splits on the pitch.

To the innovators go the spoils. And we’re starting to see some innovators.

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