Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/17/15

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Yankees Free (Greg) Bird

With their offense sputtering, the Yankees called up first baseman Greg Bird from Triple-A last week in an attempt to potentially help matters. Bird is strictly a first baseman, meaning he’s unlikely to see regular playing time with Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez holding down first base and DH, respectively. However, with 16 games without an off-day on their schedule, the Yankees will surely want to spell both Teixeria and A-Rod, especially since both have been slumping of late.

If his 2015 numbers are any indication, Bird has little left to prove in the minor leagues. He hit .277/.356/.469 between Double-A and Triple-A this season, including a .319/.372/.534 performance over his last month in the minors. Bird’s combination of power, walks and manageable strikeout numbers have made him a potent hitter in the high minors this year, as evidenced by his 139 wRC+.

Those manageable strikeout numbers are a new feature for Bird. Prior to this season, the 6-foot-3 slugger had some trouble putting the ball in play on a regular basis. His strikeout rates were consistently higher than his league’s average (roughly 20%) since the Yankees drafted him in the fifth round back in 2011, but he’s managed to hack a few percentage points off of his strikeout rate this year.

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NERD Game Scores for Monday, August 17, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at St. Louis | 20:09 ET
Heston (141.0 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. Wacha (138.1 IP, 94 xFIP-)
Of buying a pet, George Carlin said that what one is actually doing is “purchasing a small tragedy” — owing, that is, to the inevitable future death of that same animal. With regard to the San Francisco Giants, one finds a different sort of scenario, composed not of one inevitable — but two equally possible — outcomes. No other team currently possesses odds of reaching the divisional series closer to 50% than San Francisco*. What one finds, then, when observing the Giants is a group of men equally likely to experience the sort of ecstatic pleasure which attends that moment in which all of one’s efforts have been justified — either that, or the hollow misery which accompanies that other type of moment, in which one is compelled to realize that this great investment of time and energy has occurred to no greater end.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

*By the season-to-date-stats methodology.

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MLB Announces New Minority Hiring Initiative

Dating back to at least 1999, Major League Baseball has made it a stated goal to increase the level of diversity in the highest levels of its teams’ front office operations. Under the so-called “Selig Rule,” MLB teams are required to consider female or minority candidates “for all general manager, assistant general manager, field manager, director of player development and director of scouting positions.”

Notably, the Selig Rule does not require that teams actually interview any female or minority candidates for these positions. Instead, teams must merely consider candidates belonging to an underrepresented group before hiring someone else to fill one of the five aforementioned positions. Along these lines, teams are required to provide the Commissioner’s office with a list of everyone that they internally considered for an applicable job.

Sixteen years later, the extent to which the Selig Rule has succeeded in increasing the level of diversity within MLB teams’ front office operations depends on one’s point of view. On the one hand, the number of female and minority employees in MLB teams’ front offices reportedly increased from around three percent in 1999 to 20 percent in 2013. On the other hand, today only two MLB teams employ a manager belonging to an underrepresented minority group – Seattle’s Lloyd McClendon and Atlanta’s Fredi Gonzalez – while 26 of the 30 MLB general managers are white males (the only exceptions being the Diamondbacks’ Dave Stewart, the Dodgers’ Farhan Zaidi, the Phillies’ Ruben Amaro Jr., and the Tigers’ recently hired Al Avila).

Despite this mixed success, the league is committed to continuing to increase the levels of diversity in its teams’ front office ranks. In a new initiative announced last week, MLB has hired the Korn Ferry consulting firm to help prepare minority and female candidates to interview this off-season for any of the five categories of jobs covered by the Selig Rule.

While this new initiative will undoubtedly help those candidates who are eligible to work with the consulting firm, it nevertheless seems unlikely to have a significant impact on the representation of female and minority candidates within MLB.

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NERD Game Scores for Sunday, August 16, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at San Francisco | 16:05 ET
Ross (49.2 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. Bumgarner (154.1 IP, 80 xFIP-)
As one grows older and feels more acutely the baleful gravity of life, he’s more liable to begrudge those who experience success without any of the attendant struggle. One might expect, in light of this tendency, to find that right-hander Joe Ross has become the object of universal derision. Consider: over the first 49.2 innings of his career as a major leaguer, Ross has produced decidedly better-than-average fielding-independent and run-prevention numbers — and, with the exception of his most recent appearance, has conceded no more than three runs in any of his eight starts. He has, unlike the founders of Kansas, found his way to the stars without difficulties. And yet, a brief examination by the author of his interior self, reveals no contempt at all for Joe Ross. Both his Nationals and also Madison Bumgarner’s Giants currently possess divisional odds somewhere between 20% and 50% (using the season-to-date stats methodology).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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Sunday Notes: Eaton’s Pop, Rules, Brewers, Cubs, more

It’s not entirely surprising that Adam Eaton has nine home runs. The White Sox outfielder used to be a three-hole hitter with passable power. He homered 24 times in 434 at bats over his final two seasons at Miami University, and 13 times in his first 470 professional at bats.

Then the team that drafted him took away his bite.

The Arizona Diamondbacks moved Eaton to the top of the order – and sometimes near the bottom – when they promoted him to Double-A, in 2011. It was at that point they asked him to start developing a lead-off hitter type of approach.

“They wanted me to work my hands inside the ball consistently and drive the ball the other way,” explained Eaton. “Being a smaller guy on the left side of the plate, you definitely get tailored to your speed, and Arizona wanted me to ‘get on base, get on base.’ I’ve always been a guy who likes to hit the ball the other way, but that was still a completely different mentality.”

Eaton is 5-foot-8, so it makes sense that a team would want him to eschew swinging for the fences. To their credit, the White Sox realize it also makes sense to let him take advantage of his sneaky pop. Read the rest of this entry »


NERD Game Scores for Saturday, August 15, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Toronto | 13:07 ET
Tanaka (99.2 IP, 82 xFIP-) vs. Estrada (117.2 IP, 117 xFIP-)
Toronto right-hander Marco Estrada, acquired recently from Milwaukee, has recorded among the lowest park-adjusted ERAs this season relative to his park-adjusted xFIP — trailing only Zack Greinke and Scott Kazmir by that measure, actually. “Is it a product of fortune,” one wonders, “or of skill?” The answer, as in most cases, is likely “both.” It’s the distribution of two that’s relevant — and the precise terms of which, like personal happiness or a father’s love, continue to remain just beyond arm’s reach.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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The Best of FanGraphs: August 10-14, 2015

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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Job Posting: Baseball Info Solutions Research & Development Associate

Position: Baseball Info Solutions, Research & Development Associate

Location: ~ Allentown, Pa.

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Scouting Dansby Swanson Badly

I live in Portland, Oregon which is a beautiful city of rivers and mountains and beer and pine trees and beer. About the only thing it doesn’t have that I wish it had is professional baseball. The closest pro team is the Hillsboro Hops, the short-season Single-A affiliate of the Arizona Diamondbacks, and they’re about a half hour away by car. In case you are not familiar, here is a hop.

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That’s not a problem because a half hour isn’t a reasonable distance to drive for baseball. It is. It’s a problem in the general sense because a city like Portland should probably have more than a low Single-A baseball team. Then again, we’re all about to be swallowed up by the ground anyway so whatever.

But back to baseball! The lack of the sport here means there aren’t many opportunities to see a noteworthy game or related event. Wednesday night represented a departure from that norm. Dansby Swanson, the very first player selected in the most recent 2015 baseball draft, was going to make his professional debut and it was going to be with the Hops in Hillsboro. Yay Portland!

It was at this point that I thought, hey, I can watch Swanson in a scouty way and help inform not only myself but the readers of FanGraphs dot com as well. I get beer and a baseball game while, you, dear reader, get scouty-ish information on the top player drafted. That’s what we in the business call “a win-win.”

By way of catching you up on Swanson, here is what Kiley McDaniel had to say about him back in April.

Swanson was an advanced defender with a light bat in high school, then played second base his first two years at Vanderbilt and over the summers. Scouts got their first recent look at him playing short this spring and it still works. Swanson is a plus runner with fringy raw power and a strong 6’1/190 frame. He’s a contact hitter with more 10-13 homer power that wears out the gaps and would be a nice 6th-10th overall pick most years, but a high probability shortstop with some ceiling is hard to ignore in this draft.

Now back to me. I arrived, family in tow, at Ron Tonkin Field, home of the Hops, as the National Anthem was playing and had no trouble locating our seats. This is because the park contains not very many of them. When you’re used to a major-league stadium, finding six seats among 3,500 is like finding your bed in your bedroom.

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