Papelbon’s Fastball
Boston’s bullpen is struggling this season. Collectively, Red Sox relievers have a 4.68 xFIP, besting just the Indians, Royals and Angels among American League clubs. The only Sox reliever with a sub-four xFIP is Daniel Bard, at 3.29.
You may be surprised to learn that Jonathan Papelbon, he of 2.6 Wins Above Replacement per season as a full-time reliever from 2006-2009, is among the most egregious offenders.
In 24 innings pitched, the famed river dancer is walking a tight rope — his 3.00 ERA doesn’t look so bad, but his xFIP sits at 5.02. With -0.3 WAR, Papelbon has arguably been the least effective of Boston’s bullpen options.
Papelbon has a career-low 7.13 K/9 and a career-high 4.5 BB/9. He’s getting swinging strikes 11.1 percent, still above the 9.3 percent average for MLB relievers but below his 13.3 percent career average. The 29-year-old is also putting fewer pitches within the strike zone — 48.2 percent, compared to a career 53.6 percent average. When Papelbon does throw a pitch in the zone, batters are putting the bat on the ball more often. His in-zone contact rate is 89 percent, well north of his 81.9 percent figure as a major leaguer. If Papelbon’s batting average on balls in play were closer to his career .275 mark than his current .198, his struggles would be more apparent.
Sample size caveats apply, but 2010 continues a clear downward trend in the effectiveness of Papelbon’s fastball. During his career, Papelbon’s heater has been one of the best offerings in the game. His mid-90s gas has been worth +2.07 runs per 100 pitches. However, that fastball hasn’t been near as dominating lately:
Papelbon’s Run Value Per 100 pitches with the fastball, by year
2005: +0.69
2006: +3.24
2007: +3.29
2008: +2.21
2009: +1.49
2010: -0.34
Papelbon had the highest fastball run value/100 pitches among relievers in 2006. He placed second in 2007 and fifth in 2008. Last year, he still managed to sneak into the top 20. But this season, his fastball has been about as valuable as those of Danys Baez and Kanekoa Texeira.
Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site has three years of Pitch F/X data on Papelbon. There aren’t any large changes in terms of velocity or movement, but the strike, swing and whiff rates on Papelbon’s fastball are heading in the wrong direction:
2008: 71.3 Strike%, 56.3 Swing%, 11.5 Whiff%
2009: 67.5 Strike%, 51.8 Swing%, 10.4 Whiff%
2010: 67.0 Strike%, 49.7 Swing%, 10.0 Whiff%
It’s dangerous to infer too much from a few months of poor pitching from a reliever. But Papelbon’s performance as Boston’s closer has gone from awesome (2.78 xFIP from ’06 to ’08) to acceptable (3.98 xFIP in ’09) to replacement-level.
The odds that he continues to at this pace are very low — Papelbon has a long track record as one of the best relievers in the majors. But if the Red Sox are going to overcome New York or Tampa and snag a playoff spot, they’ll need their stopper to pick up the pace.
A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.
Or trade him at the deadline (which I think is in the cards for Theo & Co. anyway).
I foresee Daniel Bard taking up closing duties next season, and Boston cutting ties with Papelbon.
An owner in my league just stole him based on analysis like this. If you bother to look at the rest of the picture, since he does not throw only a FB, you’ll see that his overall CT% has returned to elite levels, perhaps because a softer slider and harder split, thrown more often, are completely dominant pitches for him so far. His first pitch strike % is north of 70% also. So he’s getting ahead in the count or hitters are swinging away at that first pitch, and then he is EITHER intentionally going out of the zone trying to induce weak contact or get hitters to chase, OR he is having command problems with the FB. If it’s the former, “mission accomplished,” no?
No problem here with FIP, but when a player’s approach changes and there is a wide gulf between reality and estimate, might want to dig a little deeper. I really wish I was the guy that just stole him. Great buy low opp.
“. If you bother to look at the rest of the picture, since he does not throw only a FB, ”
Actually, he pretty much does just throw a fastball. (93% of the time, 7% slider).
Papelbon had these same issues last year, and then turned it on in the second half. He’s got all sorts of shoulder issues, and I think hes just protecting himself.
Not sure where you’re getting those numbers. As George relates below, FG tables say 77% on the FB. Higher than league average, obviously, but the slider and split are a combined +6 runs while the FB is .3. More noise than worry for me, we need to see another 1/3 season.
I do not think Pap is going to get better. His delivery, arm slot and mechanics have all changed drastically. I do not know if this is due to injury or what but go back and look at the release point charts and the video starting from 07 to now. He is not the same pitcher. As a Sox fan I am dreading hearing the months of main stream coverage killing Theo for non tendering Pap as most will see the saves number and not the fact he is not effective anymore.
I think a tender-and-trade is far more likely than an outright non-tender especially as only 1/6 of arbitration settlements are guaranteed.
I think the issue lies with how much he throws his fastball. This year, he’s been throwing it 77% of the time, and this is not drastically dissimilar from his pitch type usage from previous years. Hitters are just sitting fastball, possibly?
His shoulder is all screwed up. He is throwing from a different arm slot, and hes drastically less efficient that way. It is supposedly better on the shoulder though.
He did the same thing last year, at the beginning of the season. At halfway through the season, eh changed the armslot, and the numbers got better.
You can certainly look at the *trend* in Papelbon’s xFIP, because there’s a very good chance that there’s been no change to whatever BABIP and HR/FB skills he has. But he’s demonstrably a pitcher for whom xFIP is just plain wrong. To note that his xFIP is now replacement level tells us nothing.
In fact, his career ERA / career xFIP = 0.57 * 2010 xFIP = 2.88, which is better than his actual ERA. He’s given up just 2 pure line drives (non-Fliner) all year, so a good chunk of his insane BABIP is real.