Passing on Jose Reyes
Just ten days ago, FanGraphs borrowed an idea from ESPN and held a Franchise Player Draft. When all was said and done, I think all of the FanGraphs contributors were ultimately happy with their picks. Though we felt good about our franchise players, many of the readers were quick to point out players they felt were snubbed. Of all the names mentioned, Jose Reyes has become the one player I’m surprised wasn’t selected during the draft. Still only 28, Reyes appears to have put his injuries behind him and he’s well on his way to his best season as a pro. Despite that, we decided he wasn’t worthy of a selection in the Franchise Player Draft. Is Jose Reyes making us look like fools?
One of the most surprising aspects about Reyes’ snub is the fact that many of the FanGraphs writers mentioned him as a runner-up to the eventual player they picked. Reyes was first mentioned by Jason Catania — who held the 16th pick — and then was mentioned by the next three writers- yet no one selected him. I held the next pick, and though I didn’t mention it in my write up, Reyes was probably my closest runner-up as well. Despite being mentioned in spots 16-19, and considered with my pick at 20, Reyes was never mentioned again.
The main reason behind the Jose Reyes snub appears to be his recent injuries. Reyes’ injuries are especially troubling because they affected the most important aspect of Reyes’ game — his legs. For a player that relies so strongly on his speed, leg injuries can be devastating. This season, Reyes appears to have overcome those injuries and is producing at an extremely high level. Reyes has already proven himself to be worth 4.2 WAR this season, good for second among all hitters. Injuries were certainly a concern going into the Franchise Player Draft, but that didn’t prevent me from taking Justin Upton with my selection. Upton was coming off a shoulder injury that sapped his production last season.
Age certainly played a factor in our decisions as well. Reyes is currently 28-years-old — that’s not old, but it isn’t necessarily young either. How many seasons of elite performance can you predict out of Reyes going forward? Five maybe? The allure of owning 10+ seasons of Justin Upton — including his peak — appealed to me more than grabbing a few elite seasons of Reyes. That’s a risk, of course, but that’s a big part of projecting players. I expect Upton to become an elite player soon. Since he’s only 23, I think his peak will be phenomenal. So, my selection was more contingent on my confidence in Upton rather than my pessimism with Reyes.
Still, I can’t fully justify why Reyes wasn’t selected in the draft. I’m certainly happy with my pick, but I wonder if fewer elite seasons as a more premium position would have been more valuable to my team. There are certainly reasons why Reyes wasn’t selected, and I attempted to spell some of those out in this piece. Problem is, one of those concerns — his health — no longer appears to be an issue. If we knew that for sure, I’m guessing Reyes would have been selected before I even had a chance to make my pick. I understand why Reyes didn’t make the initial cut, but I’m also worried that he’s already proving us wrong.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
Not sure if this was a big factor:
Year/Fielding runs
2007: 11.7
2008: 1.7
2009: -0.9
2010: -5.0
this is why I question the merits of defensive metrics. Anyone who watches Jose on a consistent basis, knows how that he is certainly better in the field than those numbers suggest.
You mean, like how BWA *knows* Derek Jeter is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball?
Is it really that surprising that a 28 year old player, after a series of leg injuries, has seen a significant decrease in range from his age 24 season?
BWA votes on golden gloves? That’s really good news! It used to be the managers, and man they would make some iffy decisions.
And that disproves the point how?
How long do fielding metrics take to stabilize? Cherry picking statistics is a lot of fun, but not very meaningful when you do so in timescales on which they’re not meaningful. How is your system better or more systematic than that of those you criticize.
So throw out the statistics you don’t like if they don’t meet your subjective observations.
Reyes didn’t play a lot of games in ’09 and ’10 compared to the two years before, and he was also slowed by injury. Regardless, I don’t think anyone ever thought he was the best fielding SS out there. That’s not where most of his value comes from.
I have watched Jose since he came up, and I can tellyou that he is NOT a gold glove SS. To me(and I am a Mets fan and love Jose) he is an avg ML SS defensively.
I don’t have a problem with most of the guys taken in that draft. But Colby Rasmus over Reyes? Really? Carl Crawford? Roy Halladay at 34 years old? Come on…
Agreed. I completely agree.
The “He’s old, but getting better” argument was used by teams to put money into people like Raul Ibanez…and look how that turned out.
My biggest problem is people saying that Crawford’s skill-set ages well. If you have ever watched Crawford, or even looked at the data, the most important part of the game is his speed. Speed usually does not age well. Crawford also had leg issues in Tampa, and yeah I know he no longer plays on turf, but if people keep pointing to Reyes’ leg injuries, then why are they completely ignoring Crawford’s?
My point is, if someone is willing to take Crawford right after a career year, then why are people not willing to take Reyes during a career year, at a more premium position?
Many studies have shown that speed ages better than other skills. Where’s your proof to the contrary.
I like how you ask for proof, yet you provide none, other than saying “Many studies have shown…”. If you ask for proof, then provide yours that states the contrary.
I’ve actually looked at various articles about skill-sets and have seen an array of conclusions (Tom Tango, Fielding Bible, etc…). I probably should have been clearer to say that aging in general screws your skills, and that no one skill ages well.
Many studies have, in fact, shown that players with a skill-set like Crawford’s age better than larger, less athletic sluggers. They have been mentioned and linked on this site by some of the various authors a number of times. I’m sorry I don’t have the links for you, but I assure you they do exist.
“Come on…” is a really good argument. You’ve convinced me.
Gob Bluth agrees.
Bu-bap. Reyes doesn’t walk, and depends heavily on BABIP to be productive. His BABIP will be better than average as long as he’s totally healthy, though not as good I’m sure as the first 2 months of this year, but any slight decline in his speed will likely end his days as a productive hitter.
Don’t take away what he’s done this year, but given his track record of injury, and given his extreme dependance on this one skill to be an above average player, I wouldn’t take him, either.
Normal aging curves show otherwise. Fast, high average/babip hitters are exactly the sort who age well. They’re the guys who have good enough bat control to change their approach as they slow down.
Discipline (and walking) is a skill that can be, and often is, developed after a player’s peak. Hitting for average isn’t.
What part of my post did you not understand? Normal aging curves is not what I was talking about, but rather a player with a history of exactly the type of injury which will prevent him from being productive. If you don’t draw walks and don’t hit for power, you have to outperform the league average BABIP to be a good or great player, and if your wheels have had a few flats in the past, the odds are good that you’re gonna have more in the future.
Please show me one example of a slappy hitter who never walked suddenly developing into a great, patient hitter.
I apologize for being too snarky in that post, I’m not really feeling myself today. Alergies, I guess. But I do think your reply did not address the point in my post. Sorry for the harsh tone, though.
1) Reyes has had ONE leg injury since 2005. Somehow this perception that he’s always injuring his legs is allowed to exist, when it really hasn’t been much of an issue over the years. From 05-08 he played in 150+ games every single year. In 09 he suffered said leg injury. In 10 he missed some time with a thyroid and oblique injury, not a leg injury. And so far this year he’s well on pace to play in 150+ games again.
2) Calling Reyes a “slap” hitter is ridiculous. You’re talking about a player who is in the Top 10 in MLB in Extra Base Hits. Even with average speed, Reyes is an above-average hitter for his position.
Trout at number 3 seems especially bad. He’s ‘raking’ in AA to the tune of a .371 BABIP, and we’re taking him over Votto (MVP, only 27), Zimmerman (consecutive >7 WAR seasons, only 26), Miguel Cabrera (40 career WAR, only 28), Ryan Braun, Kershaw, Felix etc etc etc.
I agree, Trout at #3 is the one truly ridiculous pick. If the writer wanted to go young, he could have gone with someone who has at least some Major League success, e.g. Stanton or Morrison.
Regarding his game depending on his legs, let me direct you here:
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/5/20/2132075/the-three-fallacies-of-jose-reyes
That article should be retitled to “Some meaningless stats I made up, and compared to some other players with the same concerns, to make Jose Reyes look good”.
If you drop the “meaningless stats I made up part” you’ve just named 50% of the articles on Fangraphs. Cherry picking exists everywhere, even on this blog.
Joe Mauer got picked. same age. same or… worse health? and at catcher, where health deteriorates a man a lot quicker…
still no reyes.
Here’s why I believe Reyes isn’t going to keep it up (aside from the history of leg injuries) and will regress this year and next:
2011 BABIP: .364 – Career: .313 – Best full year other than 2011: .320
2011 IFFB %: 8.5% – Career: 11.5% – Last time he had a better IFFB% was 2005 (7.5%) which got much worse in 2006 (11.8%).
His ISO is just .175 (thanks to some triples, really), and his BB% is 7% (career avg 6.8%). His LD% is pretty much the same this year as past years (19%) so it’s not like he’s suddenly making substantially better contact this year than he used to.
Put it all together and you see a guy who is a) healthy, and b) lucky. He will very likely not continue to have such a good IFFB%, and even healthy he will not continue such a great BABIP. He doesn’t hit for power or walk, so when his BABIP comes down, his production will fall very sharply. He’s having a great year, but it’s likely going to be his career year, and given his skill set and history of leg injuries, I can’t see him being a perpetual all-star and deserving of a high pick in a franchise league.
So you’re arguing that he’s not as good as his 2011? Well, no shit. I think most of us are aware he’s not a .340 hitter going forward.
But even if his talent level is more in line with his 2006-2008 form, that’s still a 6 win player at a premium position at age 28. There’s probably not a ton of players who are better bets then that going forward.
First off, as someone mentioned before, what is all this talk about leg injuries? Please list all of his leg injuries.
Yes, he’s a candidate for regression. Although, less than half way through the season he’s over 4 WAR already, so what are we talking about? A regression from 8-9 war to 6? Damn, I’m only getting 6 wins from my short stop, what a bummer.
“His ISO is just .175” You mean fourth highest in the majors for short stops? No one expects him to outhit Votto, but he doesn’t have to because he’s a SHORTSTOP.
Yes, he’ll probably suffer a bit from some regression, but nothing major. And on the other hand, I don’t think anyone would be too surprised if his BB% came up a bit to 2007-2009 levels, and he’s also on pace to have his lowest HR total since he hit 7 in 2005. So maybe next year his BABIP will drop .050 points, but maybe his BB% will go up 1-2%. Maybe his IFFB% will go up 2%, but maybe he’ll hit twice as many homers.
He’s good. The Mets are allowed to have good players, just deal with it.
I think what you really meant was:
Here’s why I believe Reyes isn’t going to keep it up (aside from the history of leg injuries) and will regress this year and next: I’m a phillies fan.
Yeah, saying a 28 year old with a skill set heavily dependent on BABIP is having a career year when he’s having a career year pretty much makes me a Phillies homer.
Saying he’s having a career year is one thing; that’s obvious. Saying Jose Reyes’ skill set is heavily dependent on BABIP is another thing; that’s just stupid, as he had 3 spectacular years with a BABIP in the .300-.320 range.
Saying you can’t see him being a perpetual all-star (despite having 4 all-star caliber seasons already), either makes you stupid or a homer. I’ll let you choose which one you prefer, but I suspect you’re not stupid.
Nope I’m not stupid, and I say again and again, my point was that I don’t see Reyes being as good again as he has been this year. I believe I made my arguments quite clearly (BABIP, BB%, etc), and I fail to see how any homerism on my part affects the logic.
Couldn’t lost his age 25 and 26 seasons be important missing pieces in determining his true BABIP capability? Crawford saw a pretty large jump sustained for a few years during that stretch… Not that the same should happen to Reyes and continue the next several years, but I wonder if the career Reyes BABIP number is that transparent.
just to clarify, i know he played in 2010, but he clearly was not his typical self
Here’s a list in alphabetical order of the players with more than 1 season with as high or higher BABIP than Reyes this year:
Cobb, Ty.
That is all.
Again, not to take away from what he’s doing this year, but the odds he’ll continue to perform at this level is… not good.
Dan, I agree that his BABIP is going to regress some. But his BABIP right now is .364. There are 9 guys listed on this very site’s leaderboards with a CAREER BABIP higher than .364. Heck, Joey Votto is a .357 and Jeter is a .354. So it clearly isn’t impossible for Reyes to post a very high BABIP going forward.
I’m not saying it’s likely, but you overstated it and you got your facts wrong.
is anyone trying to say that Reyes is a .360 BABIP player? That’s insane…
We already know that while Reyes has produced extended streaks of .340+ in the past, he’s also very capable of extended streaks below .280.
I was only suggesting that he could very well be at least a .320+ maybe even a .330+ kind of guy from now through next few years.
DL80 says: “But his BABIP right now is .364. There are 9 guys listed on this very site’s leaderboards with a CAREER BABIP higher than .364”
Maybe you have better filtering skills than I do? I simply changed the filter to multiple seasons, scaled by BABIP highest to lowest, and Cobb was all I found.
Jeter indeed does have a great BABIP of .354. It should be noted that by the time he was 28, Jeter had 3 seasons with a higher BABIP than Reyes this year, and remember Reyes never had a season near what he’s doing now, so what was part of Jete’s skill set seem more like an abberation for Reyes.
I am certainly not saying Reyes isn’t a good player, when he is playing well he’s a great one, as he has been so far this year. But I certainly wouldn’t choose him in the first round of a franchise draft, for the reasons I have explained over and over.
Dan, when you were cherrypicking stats to fit your clearly biased Phillie fan conclusions, you didn’t mention that his HR/FB rate in this, his “career” season, is less than half of his career rate.
Oh, and he also led all MLB SS’s in walks in 2007, and was 3rd in 2008 – his last healthy season.
It’s so fun to play the other side of the cherry pick game!
Dan, please stop with the BABIP nonsense. Batting average is obviously somewhat important, but even if he “regresses” to a .290-.300 range hitter, he’s still a 6-7 WAR player at SS.
He’s a very good shortstop, he’s on top of his game right now, I doubt that he’ll ever again have a season as good as his current one, can we leave it at that?
asdrubal ca. anyone?
What about him?
There is obviously no reason to take Reyes over the very best in younger picks or healthier picks, but I think the argument is with picks like Crawford, Mauer, Halladay, etc..–that is, older or more/similarly injured players. It’s hard not to believe that people (myself included to a certain extent) simply wrote Reyes off due to a lost 2009, and are having trouble admitting that they did so too quickly. Is this a career year for Reyes? Probably so, but one look at his ’06-’08 stats tells me that he is due for some more years of very high caliber play.
Furthermore, while Reyes is not a power hitter he is not a singles hitter either. It’s not like he’s turning infield dribblers or bloops over the infielders’ heads into all of those doubles and triples. Objectively, it seems to me like he deserved one of the lower half of those 30 franchise picks.
I had no idea Reyes was so close to being a 20/20/20/20 player in two different seasons already (2006, 2008). Granderson got a lot of news for actually accomplishing it once, but he wasn’t even close in any other season.
Mike Trout.
At #3.
Mike.
Trout.
Like the fish.
That pick was embarrassing for baseball nerds everywhere.
Yeah man, prospect-mania has gotten out of hand. This guy could be next Ben Grieve. His bat could be Matt LaPorta. How do you choose a AA prospect of ANY caliber at #3 overall?
I think you see more “out there” picks like that when it’s just a make-believe draft and there’s no real consequence to making an unusual pick. May as well pick Yuni Betancourt third, it’s not like the draft really “matters” in any sense.
Not that I think the Trout-picker would intentionally screw up the draft with something patently ridiculous like that, but I think sometimes we may make a weird pick to be a little out there or different in the make-believe world and wouldn’t make that pick in real life if we had a job or something that actually depended on it.
(1) Someone recently did some research (at Beyond the Boxscore?) about fast, swing happy players and developing plate discipline (walking) at the ML level. In short, they don’t. Reyes has played with the same style for 20 years.
(2) Justin Upton is only 23? I’m jealous. Seriously. Straight up jealous. So talented/skilled.
Jesus, enough with the walk rate garbage. In Reyes last 3 healthy years, he had pretty strong walk rates (better than league average at least), and it’s not a stretch to see him get back to the 10% he was at in 2006 and 2008.
In rebuttal to your #1 point Circle, why don’t you look at Reyes’ walk rate progression from 2003 to 2008.
I didn’t say Jose Reyes never walks (and I wasn’t the one to bring up his walk rate).
I thought Reyes was generally considered to have a decent walk rate (7-10%) in full seasons … putting him in the Michael Bourne – BJ Upton type group.
I just mentioned some research that was done on a larger group of similar players. Isn’t that what we do here?
Jose Reyes Career Numbers – PA/BB
——————————–
MiLB = 14.31
MLB = 14.64
Looks like pretty much the same dude over his entire professional career. If he’s developed greater walking ability at the MLB level, I’m not seeing it. That shouldn’t be confused with “he never walks”.
CC, he was developing a greater walking ability at the MLB level until his injury in 2009. From his breakout year in 2006 through his injury in 2009, he made huge strides in his walk rate – especially considering he came into the league with such an awful walk rate. Last year his walk rate plummeted, and this year it’s at his career average (although, the way he’s hitting the ball right now, walking should be a priority).
2003: 22.46
2004: 45.80
2005: 27.15
2006: 13.26
2007: 9.94
2008: 11.56
2009: 9.22
2010: 19.45
2011: 14.26
I was shocked at some of the players who went before Reyes. And let’s leave aside the injury/aging issues for awhile because they’re silly and there is no data to back them up. Speed ages very well, and it’s not at all clear that once-injured means always- or even often-injured. It’s just not supported by data. (As a side note, Reyes averaged around 158 games per season from 2005-2008, so even if there is something to this theory, it doesn’t even rightfully apply to him).
Now, onto the major issue:
Trout at #3 (and some of the other young prospects taken). Raking in AA? Great. That’s AA. What’s his peak? Let’s say he becomes a 6 WAR player in his prime. That would be pretty darn high and you’d have to say he’d have been a very successful prospect. So, you mean he becomes as valuable as Jose Reyes? 3-5 years from now? And remember — this is the key — that’s only if it all works out. That’s only if he becomes who we think and hope he will become. Similar problem with Starlin Castro. No good reason to believe, as of yet, that he will put up even one 6+ WAR season. Reyes will soon have 3 in the last 6 years, including most likely a 7+ WAR year, and he’s 28.
In short, the overrating of top prospects is becoming an epidemic. I know it’s a franchise draft, and you want young talent. But when contracts and player control are taken out of the equation, it makes no sense to draft someone who has never played MLB over someone who is entering his prime and has shown a repeatable 6-WAR skill set. It’s madness.
.
@VEJ
yeah, when you start off at a 3.7% walk rate (1st full season), there’s only one way to go. *grin*
I never viewed him as a Juan Pierre type, just as a player where too much emphasis on walking may take away from some of the aggressiveness at the plate. IMO, it’s very tough to fluctuate between the mindsets of (1) be patient, take the walks and (2) be aggressive and rack up total bases.
Especially when pitchers likely make adjustments to his recent trends. Fans seem to want him to have the patience to walk 90 times, while still being aggressive enough to get a lot of hits and extra base hits. That’s pretty tough.
My guess is that pitchers pretty much try to avoid walking him at all cost.
OK, flash back 2 years…would anyone have drafted Paul Konerko? Stats are overrated…you can’t get a stat that shows desire to play, quality of character, etc. I take stats with a grain of salt…Reyes wants to play, if he goes to a contender in the off-season he’ll be off the stinkin’ charts. It’s all in perception. His last half 2010 numbers were really good too. I think he’s worthy of a pick.