Pavano Accepts Arbitration
After missing the better part of four seasons with injuries, Carl Pavano finally returned to the mound as a healthy pitcher in 2009, making 33 starts and providing good value for his teams. Going into the winter in a free agent market that was generally derided for a lack of talent, Pavano figured to be one of the more attractive arms available in free agency.
Apparently not. After finding lukewarm interest from other clubs, Pavano is set to accept the Twins offer of arbitration and will return to Minneapolis for 2010.
Despite the constant fear that he might break down again, this should turn out to be a massive bargain for the Twins. Pavano will now have his 2010 salary determined through an outdated system that will care little about his 4.00 FIP and +3.7 win value from 2009. Instead, he’ll have to build a case for his paycheck around a 5.10 ERA in his first healthy season since 2004. Those are not the kind of numbers that arbiters are going to be particularly impressed by.
So, in all likelihood, the Twins will end up paying Pavano something between $6 and $8 million next year. Even with a market that looks to be paying a depressed rate for wins, that’s still valuing him as a two win pitcher. Even with the health concerns, he’s got a good chance of besting that.
His command is among the best in the league, and he combines the ability to pound the strike zone with solid stuff that can miss bats and keep the ball in the park. He showed last year that he can still pitch at a high level. The question for him will always be health, but a one year deal mitigates a large portion of the risk that comes along with an injury prone arm like Pavano’s.
Having Pavano back at a reasonable salary, along with the acquisition of J.J. Hardy, will strengthen the Twins significantly next year. Without expending much money, they’ve made a couple of moves with legitimate upside and minimal risk. It’s been a good off-season for Twins fans so far.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Do you think he even gets that much? He’s coming off $1.5M guaranteed, about $4.2 with incentives. With that ERA, $6M would probably be a good outcome for Pavano.
The 200 innings will help him. He ended up making about $6 million last year coming off of four years of nothingness. They can at least put in a credible argument that he deserves a raise over his 2009 salary based on being healthy.
It sounds like they’ll work out a deal to avoid arbitration.
My guess – 5 mil.
I want my $40,000,000 back.
Apologize for your bad attitude and maybe you’ll get your $40,000,000 back.
PS: Go have a chat with Kei Igawa. I believe he has some of your money as well.
I find it hard to believe Igawa couldn’t at least be useful as a LOOGY instead of rotting away at AAA.
If he stays in Scranton, Cash doesn’t have to be reminded of his $46 million mistake every time he glances out to the bullpen.
Having watched Igawa pitch, I don’t find it hard to believe at all. LH and RH batters have lit him up, so I don’t think he’s capable of pitching in relief. At this stage, it’s either AAA, the NL or Japan.
There’s a discrepancy between leagues, but come on. Igawa would get lit up if he were a Chicago Cub too. The NL does not belong in any grouping with Japan and AAA.
I’m pointing out his options, he’s not going to get a shot in the AL again (maybe the M’s would take a flyer on him given their OF defense?). As a flyball pitcher, I’m sure he’ll do well somewhere like, say, Dodger Stadium, or Petco Park.
The Padres put a waiver claim on him, the Brewers were willing to deal for him, teams from NPB have inquired about him so commenting about him going to the NL or Japan has some merit.
“an outdated system that will care little about his 4.00 FIP and +3.7 win value from 2009. Instead, he’ll have to build a case for his paycheck around a 5.10 ERA in his first healthy season since 2004.”
you may claim that this system is outdated but you fail to mention that he’s an injury prone bum who lied to his team about a car accident. character issues should and WILL be taken into considerations -not just your fantastical projections and useless numbers
Unless Dave edited this in (“The question for him will always be health, but a one year deal mitigates a large portion of the risk that comes along with an injury prone arm like Pavano’s.”) after you commented, I suggest you read the entire article before commenting.
proffesional service is a must