‘Pay Juan Soto!’ Yankees Advance to World Series on Superstar’s 10th-Inning Blast
Hunter Gaddis didn’t want to throw Juan Soto a fastball. With two on and two out in the top of the 10th inning, Gaddis started the fearsome slugger with three sliders in a row: one for a ball, one for a called strike, and one for a foul ball. Behind in the count now, Soto fouled off two changeups and then another slider. This was supposed to work. Opponents batted .135 against the two pitches this season. They whiffed 30% of the time. Gaddis had clipped the edges of the zone with the nastiest stuff he could muster — some of the nastiest stuff in the game — and Soto simply refused to be beaten. Six soft pitches in a row, and Soto was hanging back and spoiling them at the last possible moment. Surely Gaddis could get away with one fastball, right? Right?
Asked after the game about his mindset during the at-bat, Soto said, “I was just saying to myself, ‘You’re all over that guy.’” Gaddis finally threw a fastball. Soto was all over it.
The four-seamer left Gaddis’ hand at 95.2 mph. It left Soto’s bat at 109.7. Soto didn’t leave the batter’s box at all. He watched as the high, arcing blast traveled 402 feet into the Cleveland night and center fielder Lane Thomas, head craned upward, drifted slowly back to the warning track. By the time Thomas had run out of real estate and the ball had landed safely in the standing room section just past the wall, Soto still hadn’t reached first base.
The blast gave the Yankees a 5-2 lead in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series and propelled them to their first World Series since 2009. The 15-year hiatus matches the gap between New York’s 1981 and 1996 appearances, the franchise’s longest stretch away from the Series since it first reached it in 1921. Asked what was going through his mind when Soto hit the go-ahead home run, general manager Brian Cashman said, “I was thanking God.”
New York’s 4-1 series victory belies a tight and thrilling series that featured multiple extra-inning games, riveting reversals, likely heroes, and extremely unlikely goats. For the third straight game, the Yankees and Guardians were tied during the ninth inning. For the second straight game, the Yankees scored the winning runs off Cleveland’s untouchable high-leverage relievers. The vaunted Guardians bullpen, asked to pitch 28 innings over five games, actually ran a slightly better ERA than New York’s relievers, but Cleveland simply needed more from them. As has so often been the case, the Guardians always looked to be a couple solid bats short.
With Tanner Bibee starting on three days’ rest, the Yankees threatened from the very beginning. Gleyber Torres started the game with a single through the right side, then Soto ripped a low liner into the right field gap and all the way to the wall. Third base coach Luis Rojas waved Torres around third, but a perfect relay from Jhonkensy Noel and Andrés Giménez nabbed him just inches before he was able to slide his left hand across the plate. Giménez’s 94-mph laser was on the money, without a hop.
It took an incredible relay to foil the gutsy send, but two batters into the game, it was still a questionable decision. Instead of second and third with no outs, the Yankees had Soto on second with one out. Bibee hit both Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm Jr. to load the bases, but managed to escape the inning unscathed. Just when it looked like the Yankees might run away with things and get to the overtaxed Cleveland bullpen early, Bibee settled down. He retired the next 10 Yankees in order and faced the minimum over the next four innings, consistently inducing chases on changeups and breaking pitches below the zone.
During the first inning, Carlos Rodón looked every bit as sharp as he had in Game 1, striking out two and retiring the side in order. He started the second inning with a strikeout as well, but the Naylor family slowed his roll. Josh Naylor tapped a grounder off the end of the bat to the abandoned left side of the infield, and the charging Chisholm had no shot at catching him at first base. Rodón struck out Noel to notch the second out, then Bo Naylor worked what would’ve been the at-bat of the game if not for what happened later. He pulled the 10th pitch he saw down the right field line for a line drive double. As Alex Speier noted, it was the first time a lefty had hit an extra-base hit off Rodón since July 28. More importantly, with a full count and two outs, Josh Naylor was running on the pitch, allowing him to score easily. Rodón still looked excellent, but after two Naylor hits and zero hard-hit balls, Cleveland led, 1-0.
The Guardians added an insurance run in the fifth inning, when Gimenéz shot a one-out double down the third base line and Steven Kwan singled him home two batters later. David Fry reached out and broke his bat on a changeup, lifting a popup into shallow left center. Judge, Alex Verdugo, and Anthony Volpe converged on the perfectly placed ball, which went in and out of the diving Judge’s glove. Verdugo tried to hurdle Judge, but somehow he didn’t actually leave the ground and was lucky not to injure the prostrate behemoth. Kwan, who had to wait and make sure the ball wasn’t caught, advanced to third, while Fry reached second with a double. Rodón’s reward for obliterating Fry’s bat on a ball that Statcast gave a 90% catch probability was a trip to the showers. He allowed five hits and two runs over 4 2/3 innings, striking out six and walking one. Four of the five hits came off the bats of Cleveland’s left-handed hitters. Rodón wouldn’t be in line for the loss for very long.
Bibee came out to pitch the top of the sixth, which also meant facing the top of the New York lineup for the third time. At the very least, we have to acknowledge that manager Stephen Vogt didn’t have an easy decision in front of him. The Guardians used nine total pitchers in Games 3 and 4 on Thursday and Friday, seven in each game. Five of them appeared in both games, including the team’s big four of Cade Smith, Tim Herrin, Emmanuel Clase, and Gaddis. The options were to leave in the cruising Bibee, to bring in an excellent but possibly gassed reliever for the third straight game, or to bring in a fresher but worse reliever. Vogt chose door number one, and while the call was defensible, well, we talk about the third time through the order penalty for a reason.
Torres reached out and yanked a soft liner over the third baseman for a single, and Soto ripped a more convincing single right back through the box. With runners on first and second, Judge sent a ball right to short for an easy 6-4-3 double play. That prompted a visit from the training staff, which seemed to be a fairly transparent ploy to buy Cade Smith some extra time to warm up, except Smith didn’t come in.
With Giancarlo Stanton at the plate, Bibee looked appropriately scared; he had no intention of attacking Stanton in the zone, even after he got the red-hot slugger to chase his first two pitches, a slider away and a changeup low. Bibee stuck with that approach and tried to tempt the hulking hitter with three soft pitches off the plate, but all three of them missed the zone by too much, and Stanton laid off. For the 3-2 pitch, Naylor set the target a solid 18 inches outside, but Bibee missed in a far worse spot, spinning a slider right over the middle and slightly down. Stanton did what Stanton does, shooting an absolute missile into the left field stands. The line drive left the bat at 117.5 mph and had a projected distance of 446 feet.
If you’re keeping score at home, on Bibee’s third time through the Yankees lineup, he faced four batters and allowed three hard-hit balls, two runs, and one lead. The game was knotted at two.
Vogt brought in Smith, who struck out Chisholm to end the inning. With the seal broken, the score tied, and his season in the balance, Vogt unleashed the rest of the big four. Despite pitching for the third day in a row, the quartet was effective. Smith got the first out of the seventh inning, then allowed a single, and Herrin finished the inning and pitched a perfect eighth. Clase worked a scoreless ninth, and Gaddis worked the fateful 10th. After Volpe lined out weakly to short to lead off the inning, Gaddis walked Austin Wells, then induced a groundball to second base from Verdugo. It was hit a bit too softly to get the double play, but in an attempt to get both outs anyway, Brayan Rocchio rushed through his part of the turn and botched the play altogether. Giménez’s feed clanked off the top of Rocchio’s glove, then bounced harmlessly to the turf. Everyone was safe.
Gaddis struck out Torres, bringing Soto to the plate. “He’s gonna do it,” said Chisholm after the game. “That’s the only thing going through my mind: He’s gonna do it.” None of the three runs Soto drove in was earned.
In the visitor’s dugout, Aaron Boone had the luxury of managing with the knowledge that his back wasn’t against the wall, and it allowed him to choose door number three. Fourteen relievers threw at least 10 relief innings for the Yankees this season. Among those 14, not one of Mark Leiter Jr., Tim Hill, or Jake Cousins – the first four out of the bullpen on Saturday – ranked higher than seventh in terms of leverage index when entering the game. The three combined for 3 1/3 scoreless innings, walking four Guardians but allowing just one hit. Boone finally called on Luke Weaver to pitch the ninth and 10th innings, and the slight star allowed just one hit before ending Cleveland’s season on a lazy fly ball that landed in the glove of – who else? – Juan Soto.
Stanton, who took home ALCS MVP honors, had four hits in the series, all of them home runs. In Game 5, Soto went 3-for-5 with four hard-hit balls, including a double and the series-winning homer, and raised his OPS in the series from 1.159 to 1.373. When asked why he was so sure Soto would deliver, Chisholm said simply, “Because it’s Juan Soto. Pay my guy! Pay Juan Soto!” The World Series starts on Friday, Soto’s 26th birthday.
Davy Andrews is a Brooklyn-based musician and a contributing writer for FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @davyandrewsdavy.
Stanton has mostly been a shell of the player he was as a Marlin as he had a career 147 OPS+ as a Marlin vs a 120 OPS+ as a Yankee— some of it is the aging curve and a lot of it is injuries but playoffs Stanton is a different animal. I hate to say it but right now the Yankees look unbeatable and with six days in between games they can rest their gassed bullpen.
Stanton has a legitimate HoF case, or is at least close to it
Does he? It looked like he did at one time but the way he’s fallen off over his time as a Yankee suggests otherwise as he’s at 42 war for his career.
27 WAA and 1.15 postseason WPA would put him somewhere in the range of Nomar Garciaparra, Harmon Killebrew, Willie Stargell. One would have to weight the postseason a lot
If he gets to 500 homers and continues to have a great postseason and the Yankees win it, he’s definitely in. It puts him a touch behind Ortiz but with the advantage of having been a competent fielder at one point and no taint of PEDs (fairly or not).
Yeah, really boils down to 500 HR.
He’s at 429 and 42.5 WAR.
At 34 years old.
500 hrs looks doable; 50 WAR…? As a DH?
Ortiz got to 541 and 51WAR.
And he hit 38 HRs at 40.
Stanton needs 20 HRs a year until 40 and 2 WAR a year.
With his health history it seems a reach.
And 500 is no guarantee.
I initially thought the comp to Ortiz was too optimistic but it’s reasonable. Very similar seven-year peak and with a couple of decent years (which he would likely need to get to 500), he’s over 50 WAR and close to Ortiz’s career number. Fairly or unfairly, I don’t think Ortiz was tainted by the PEDs–he made it on the first ballot.
The big problem for Stanton, when compared to Ortiz, is career shape. Ortiz finished incredibly strong with his last 5 years ranking among his best. When voters considered his ballot, their most recent memory was him dominating 5 years earlier. When voters are looking at Stanton, even if he gets to 500 HR, they’re going to be looking at a guy who has been pretty average or or worse for the previous decade.
Good point.
Then there is the matter of health.
First he has to play enough to get 2 WAR each year.
And the other difference is that Ortiz was in the heart of the order ’till the end and got plenty of opportunities to produce. RBIs, walks, etc. He was still producing at a high level.
Looking forward, unless Stanton recovers to his 20’s level, his offense these days is homers and little else.
Ortiz ended with his career 13% walk rate and 17% k rate his last year, right at his career average.
Stanton has been at 8%bb and 31%K and the latter is pretty much what he is. And he hasn’t reached 120 games played since 2021 and 140+ since 2018.
That does not suggest he’s going to be any more durable at 35+. He’ll still be useful for a while but the 2028 option? I wouldn’t count on the Yanks exercising it.
Stanton has posted 220 wRC+ in the 9 games that he’s played so far this post-season.
Using the graph tool at his player page, I looked at Stanton’s rolling 9 game wRC+ during the 2024 season. The total number of games for this analysis is less than a full 162-game season, as it covers just the 114 games in which Stanton played during 2024.
This shows 4 distinct (i.e., not overlapping) 9-game periods this season when Stanton’s wRC+ peaks at over 200. Namely:
There are also 4 other points around these peaks where Stanton’s rolling 9-game wRC+ was over 200 this year.
So here’s how I think about it. Let’s suppose that I randomly select a consecutive 9-game period from Stanton’s 2024 season to look at his performance. There’s an ~7% (8/114) chance that I pick a period where Stanton’s wRC+ is over 200, meaning I’d see results making me think that he’s the type of “animal” that he’s been in the playoffs.
It’s timely that Stanton has performed at this unusually high level at such an important time, but I’m hardly convinced that “playoffs Stanton is a different animal”.
Fair, but it’s worth noting that Stanton has a career 170 wRC+ and 1.019 OPS in 36 playoff games over 6 separate playoff runs. He seems to elevate his game every year in the postseason