Pedro Showing Off

by
September 4, 2009

Last night, Pedro Martinez reminded everyone why he’s going to Cooperstown when he retires. Unable to find a job until the second half of the season, Martinez was something of an experiment for the Phillies. Consider it a successful gamble.

His fastball hit 92 last night, and he’s averaging 88-89 with it again, not that far off from where it was in his heyday. His change-up is still as nasty as ever, and he had it working last night, getting swinging strikes with four of the 20 that he threw. Even after adjusting for the fact that the Giants offense is pretty miserable, Pedro was still terrific last night – 7 innings, 5 hits, 0 walks, 9 strikeouts, 87 pitches.

For the season, Pedro has now thrown 23 innings and ran a 4/23 BB/K rate. He’s still prone to the longball, but even giving up frequent home runs, his FIP stands at 3.74. Given his command of the strike zone and ability to keep hitters off balance, Martinez is still capable of shutting teams down on any given night. Durability is going to be a constant question with him, but his ability to get big league hitters out should not be.

The rejuvenation of a former ace coming off arm problems serves as yet another reminder that we don’t really have any credible way of judging when a player is washed up. Seemingly every time someone publishes a eulogy on an active player, he finds the fountain of youth and makes them eat their words.

Maybe Pedro wasn’t so crazy to ask for $5 million last winter. He’s still got the stuff to be worth twice that.





 

Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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mattymatty
14 years ago

“His fastball hit 92 last night, and he’s averaging 88-89 with it again, not that far off from where it was in his heyday. ”

I don’t know where to find pitchfx data from the late 90’s, so this is admittedly an anecdotal comment, but I believe Pedro used to be able to hit the high 90s with his fastball. If I’m correct, then I think 88-89mph is pretty far off from where he used to be.

Still, that isn’t here or there when it comes to Pedro’s performance last night. The one thing I’d point out to those who said he out-pitched Lincecum (which wasn’t stated in this article, but I’ve read elsewhere this morning) is that he was facing a Giants lineup which is one of the worst in baseball, while Lincecum was facing a Phillies lineup that is one of the best.

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Richie Abernathy
14 years ago
Reply to  mattymatty

not to be snooty, but matty, you know the reason you come to fangraphs is so you don’t have to go to garbage baseball media outlets who act like a pitching matchup is a steel cage death match. so my response to the comparison of the lineups last night is: obviously. By the way, we don’t talk near enough about Jayson Werth. Around a .900 ops and now 30 bombs and solid defense for, what, $2.5 million this year?

Oh, and Long Live Pedro Martinez.

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lincolndude
14 years ago
Reply to  mattymatty

We’re talking average fastball velocity. The last year we have on this site is 2002, when he was returning from his 2001 rotator cuff injury and had an average velocity below 91. There’s no doubt he was a little slower after his injury than in his money years of ’99-’00.

However, I think Pedro’s fastball velocity was always overstated. I watched him a lot in the late ’90s and he usually topped out in the 94-95 range, at least according to the TV gun. So his average velocity was probably not more than 92.

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Rob in CT
14 years ago
Reply to  mattymatty

I remember Pedro topping out at 97-98, sitting 94-95 in 1999. Those are the readings I remember from the TV (MSG network when he was facing the Yanks), so they’re not as good as something like pitchfx. That said, yeah, I think he’s lost 4-5 mph since his prime.

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Wrighteous
14 years ago
Reply to  Rob in CT

His velocity with the Phils is comparable, however, to his years with the Mets. This would lead you to believe that he has been a bit lucky so far, especially when you ad in his high strand rate and the fact that his LD% is down from his previous couple years. He has also out performed his xBABIP, and his walk rate is completely unsustainable (just over 1).

I’ve said it before, Pedro strikes me as an ex-juicer who is still riding a hangover from his steroid years. In terms of raw ability, he is absolutely nowhere near is late 90’s seasons. He is also a far cry from his early 2000 years. In his last three years with the mets, he was very mediocre, a guy who could handle about one go-round through the batting order before getting touched up. Even when he pitched well, you got the sense he was only one mistake away from a big inning.

He has been a nice pitcher so far for the Phils, but theres just no way he will keep it up.

I think people forget just how dominant pedro was from 1997-2002. Go back and look at the numbers. They were ridiculous. Pedro may be on a bit of a hot (read: lucky) streak now, but IMHO he’s due for some serious regression…

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lincolndude
14 years ago
Reply to  Rob in CT

Yeah, my memory is probably off, but for some reason I remember those reports of him hitting 97/98 as being mythical.

I honestly cannot remember ever seeing him top 96… anyone know where to find some Petey footage?

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RPMcSweeney
14 years ago
Reply to  Rob in CT

While obviously anecdotal and unverified, this is how the New York Times described Pedro’s velocity during his 17 strikeout performance at Yankee Stadium:

“Derek Jeter was Martinez’s first strikeout victim, on a 97 mile-an-hour fastball in the first inning, and Chuck Knoblauch was his 17th, the last out of the game, on a 97 m.p.h. fastball. Every Yankee hitter struck out at least once, including Darryl Strawberry, who pinch-hit in the ninth inning.”

Obviously, the reporter (Buster Olney?) is likely just recording what the stadium radar gun displayed, and those are notoriously unreliable. Still, contemporary if unscientific support for Pedro’s velocity during his heyday.

Source:
http://www.nytimes.com/1999/09/11/sports/baseball-1-hit-17-strikeouts-no-way-for-the-yankees.html

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Kris
14 years ago
Reply to  Rob in CT

I swore that Pedro touched 97mph as an Expo (best 12 dollars i’ve ever spent on a baseball game). I have a terrible memory though, but i do remember his career being split into three distinct phases: Fastball Phase, I Don’t need to throw the fastball that hard phase, and the decline phase.

If Pedro can float somewhere between the “i’m a real pitcher” and the “decline phase”, he’s going to be worth the money.

When you consider whom he was facing last night, I think that was the best you’ll get from Pedro. Pedro’s always seemed to pitch his best against players that are concerned superior to him. Lincecum’s the best in the league, and Pedro definitely had a chip on his shoulder.

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TomG
14 years ago
Reply to  Rob in CT

Gee, Wrighteous thinking some is an ex-juicer. Now there’s a shocker.

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TomG
14 years ago
Reply to  Rob in CT

^Someone…brain’s already in weekend mode apparently.

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Slick
14 years ago
Reply to  mattymatty

‘He did it facing a bad lineup’ is one of the weakest excuses of all time. Last time I checked, good pitchers pad their stats against weak teams. If a pitcher won 20 games, do you honestly think that every single one came against a team with a winning record and a top offence? Is Adam Wainwright a poor pitcher because his last four wins have come against four lesser offences? Yet previous to this four game winning streak, his last win was a shutout aginst the Dodgers. I could pick out a million examples of the above. It’s easy. Pedro has a proven hall of fame track record so him pitching shouldn’t come as a shock. Not to mention one of thoe ugly intangibles creeping into the picture…that being perhaps he is jacked up to be part of a team headed to the playoffs and is, like Floyd Mayweather Jr told us to do, stepping his game up.

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Samg
14 years ago
Reply to  Slick

http://unobstructedview.wordpress.com/2009/08/07/some-things-to-ponder/
I couldn’t agree more.

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Brent
14 years ago
Reply to  mattymatty

For S’s and giggles, I busted out an old copy of “The Scouting Report” from 1996 — the last one I have, reflecting the season of 1995 (one year before his breakout season in 1996). I stopped purchasing those publications then.

“A pitcher with a fastball with good (mid-90s) velocity and good life, Pedro delivers his #1 pitch from three quarters, striking fear in the hearts of many skittish righthanded batters who know his heater will most often run inside to them. He will also bore and sink the two-seamer. Martinez’s breaking pitch is an average-plus curve, but his change-up is a solid plus pitch.”

Obviously he improved a few things along the way — his changeup, for one. But his velocity did sit routinely in the mid 90s during his Expos and early Boston days. If he is 88-89 now, he’ll have to rely offspeed pitches, gile, and pitching “know how” to get batters out and maintain his success.

So far the results have been mixed.

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