Pedroia to SS?
Here’s an interesting twist to the Red Sox off-season; Peter Gammons reports that they have asked Dustin Pedroia whether he would be willing to move to shortstop next year, and he told Gammons that he’s all for it. Shifting Pedroia to the left side of the infield would allow Boston to pursue a second baseman, which are plentiful this off-season, rather than being forced to meet Marco Scutaro’s demands to land the only decent shortstop on the market.
Could Pedroia play shortstop effectively? It seems likely.
His career UZR/150 at second base is +7.4, and the observed effect of players shifting between the two middle infield positions is between 5 to 10 runs. Pedroia’s UZR would suggest that he would be something like an average defensive shortstop.
The fan’s scouting report offers a similar picture. Pedroia graded out as the fifth best second baseman in the game, coming in above average in every single category. Often times, arm strength is a reason a shortstop is moved to second base, but the fan’s think his arm is just fine.
Experience wouldn’t be a problem, either. He played shortstop in college at Arizona State, then played an additional 132 games at the position in the minor leagues. He actually played more SS than 2B in the minors. While he hasn’t played the position in three years, he wouldn’t be learning a new position – he’s spent most of his life playing shortstop, and the reactions would come naturally.
Ironically, Scutaro himself may be providing the necessary optimism for why this move could work. He was primarily a second baseman early in his career, but was shifted to play mostly shortstop in 2005 at the age of 30, and has held his own at the position since. Alexei Ramirez also made the transition across the bag last year with success, so this isn’t a move without some precedent.
This move won’t make Pedroia significantly more valauble, as what he adds in offensive scarcity compared to the average shortstop, he’ll probably give back with the glove, but it would give the Red Sox significantly more flexibility this winter. Rather than having to pay for Scutaro, they could set their sights on a second baseman such as Orlando Hudson, Placido Polanco, or Felipe Lopez.
It sounds like it is still in the conversation stages, but it is an idea with merit, and the Red Sox should strongly consider going forward with Pedroia as their starting shortstop.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Also a slight litmus test of how tough playing 2B actually is.
Most everyone thinks Pedroia is a top 5 defensive 2B, we may find out what that means in terms of shortstops.
i don’t see how this is going to work he was moved from SS to 2b because he can’t make the throw in the 3b hole.
Neither can Jeter, he did ok for himself.
Francona described Pedroia’s throwing style from SS as “tossing grenades.”
Maybe he was just joking, but it doesn’t inspire confidence.
I read this at first as “Francessa” and I wondered why anyone cared…
If anyone cites Francessa as a legit source, ban the IP address immediately.
Actually he was moved from SS to 2B in the minors because the BoSox had Hanley Ramirez playing SS in their minors at the time.
I wish the Reds would do this with Brandon Phillips.
I wish there was a fitting Dusty Baker joke for this, but I can’t think of one.
This may be implied in your post, but the end result of this discussion of Pedroia at SS could just be a lower price tag on Scutaro, no?
I think the issue is more of the draft picks they’ll be forced to give up than the dollars.
They could let Bay walk and sign Holliday and Scutaro and actually improve their draft position.
I have a hard time believing Pedroia is athletic enough to play short. If he was average defensively I would be surprised.
Lack of athleticism isn’t Pedroia’s problem. If he weren’t so athletic, he wouldn’t be in the major leagues at 5 foot 6. Given the whole off season (just about) to prepare, he should be able to approximate an average or slightly above major league shortstop.
Who would you rather have in your line up and in the field, Marco Scutaro and his magical beans or any number of quality second baseman (Hudson, Polanco, etc.)? I really like this idea and I hope the Sox go for it.
They are all pretty comparable, but I’d rather have Scutaro because he can play second and short, and play them both pretty well.
Are you kidding me? Pedroia is very athletic he steals 15+ bases a year, and if you actually watched him play on the field you see the guy diving on every play and doing everything as hard as he can. Pedroia is PLENTY athletic.
A guy diving all over the place tells me he doesn’t have great range, it’s akin to saying that Jeter is athletic because he’s always jumping and throwing. If either had the range they wouldn’t have to put on the grit act.
sandy, if you think it’s an act… try watching a game.
Did I ever say he had great range? I was saying he was very athletic. Way to read the question and put words in my mouth. Besides, he DOES have good range, I honestly don’t know if you’re talking about the same Pedroia that I’m talking about.
Stealing bases doesn’t automatically make you capable of playing shortstop, and it doesn’t make you athletic enough to play shortstop.
If we are talking about Pedroia’s athleticism versus the general population, then he is above average. If we are talking about it versus the shortstop population, then he is below average.
His work ethic is never questioned, sometimes physical skills prevent players from doing things no matter how hard they work.
This portrayal of Pedroia as a gritty, unathletic type is hilarious.
He’s exceptionally quick and athletic for a MLB 2B – and plenty quick for a MLB SS. That is not at all the issue. The issue is his arm is average to below average for a MLB SS.
People have been using poor examples, but nonetheless, Pedroia is actually very athletic, even for a MLB middle infielder.
All I said was that if he was diving all over the place than he probably doesn’t have great range. Either that or being the illegitimate son of an elf and Eddie Gaedel makes it very hard to get to a lot of balls.
Interesting idea. Not sure he has the arm, but if all he needs to do is be adequate he could probably pull it off. Bring in the O-Dog to play 2nd… yeah. I can see why they’re at least thinking about it.
That’s interesting, because Scutaro doesn’t really seem any more athletic than Pedroia to me.
He’s not. Pedroia is very athletic with tons of range. Not the problem at all. His arm was ok, too.
He was moved from SS to 2B for team need, with the possibility open he could move back at some point… he excelled at 2B so well they decided best not to tinker with what works.
Initially it was thought he could play SS in the majors fine. I think he definitely still could. He’s got lots of range, is extremely quick and makes great, quick reads. His arm is subpar for a SS, but not terrible. The overall package is probably an average to above average SS. When he was moved, the feeling was he could be a pretty average SS or a fantastic 2B. I think that is still true.
He also seemed a little chunkier and slower when he first came up than he does now, and he’d still been playing as much SS as 2B up until then.
I did a workup on Polanco over at Draysbay using some different things. Starting with Dan S’s MLE calculator I looked at Polanco’s last 3 years (weighted 2/3/5) to find that if he had put up those same numbers in Boston he would be looking at a slash of 0.308/0.356/0.423/0.779 vs. his Detroit slash of 0.303/0.348/0.415/0.763. This may seem minor so using the 2OPS/3 cheat I converted to wOBA to find his Boston wOBA would have been .378 vs. the .370 he had playing in a less offense-inflated environment. Again, this may seem minor, but I have the AL average 2B at .341. Converting this war wRAA you would go from 15.1 to 19.2 runs. That’s almost half a win more if he had played in Boston.
SS was the weak link in Boston in 2009. I had it at -1 win compared to the average AL SS, while Pedroia was worth 2.8 wins over the average AL 2B. Even if you knock an entire win of Pedroia with the switch, he would still be a huge upgrade over the schlock they threw out there last year. Using Polanco’s wRAA at 600 PA he would have been worth 2.7 wins over the average 2B had he played in Fenway for more than a handful of games and giving him a UZR of 8.2 (again weighting the last 3 years 2/3/5). So basically, they would still have a Pedroia-type player on 2B while going from an abyss to a molehill at SS. I think Boston getting Polanco, provided Pedroia takes to SS like a duck to water, could be a bigger upgrade than Holliday over Bay.
There is no way Polanco puts up a .378 wOBA. If he is league average I would be surprised.
He has been trending down linearly, but don’t underestimate the Fenway effect. He doesn’t K much and would be an ideal candidate to pepper the Monster. As a Rays fan I hope they get someone more like O-Dawg. Keep in mind that the least weighted season in that was an absolute monster 3 years ago. Maybe not the best way to try to find the MLE, but it’s quick and dirty, and gives an idea of where he would stand in that park.
Unless I’m misunderstanding what you were doing there, you made a couple of mistakes. First, when you convert wOBA to runs above average, you have to compare it to the league average, not the average for second basemen. Also, if you’re going to be using park factors, you can’t apply Boston’s park factor to Polanco’s Detroit numbers. You have to apply Detroit’s park factor to his numbers and then compare his wOBA to the league average to get RAA.
Instead of adding positional back in at the end I compare it to the league average for that position to see how he compares to all AL 2B. I could compare it to the league average, but I only care how he compares to 2B, not everyone. The Detroit park factor is inherent in his numbers which the MLE calculator then converts from what it is like to play in Detroit to what it is like to play in Boston.
very interesting thought…I’ve no doubt that pedroia has enough athleticism to have an MLB-average or better caliber glove, but I’m really not sure his arm is strong enough for the position
The bottom line is there is no harm in discussing it before arb offerings take place if only to shift your chips and keep other teams, agents, and players on their toes. I doubt he would be worse defensively than Lugo and they literally won a WS with him.
The issue is still finding a bat. The move would let them go get a 2b with something to bring to the table offensively. I’d rather they stop worrying about it and trade for Miggy and sign Lackey. It needs to be both if they want to catch NY. Big power hitter and pitcher, not one or the other… that will not get it done.
The Yankees run differential was +162 in 2009, while the Sox were +136. Theyre really not that far apart, considering the Sox had to deal with some timely injuries and the ineffectiveness of Ortiz and Lowell (just as in 08 the Yanks werent quite as bad as they appeared and had injuries to key players at bad times). With steps forward from Buchholz and other young players theyre right on their heels already. Add in that the Yanks are an old team with lots of 35+ year olds… it wouldnt take a whole lot to shift the balance.
Point being, the Sox are one of the best teams in baseball as presently constructed. They arent two franchise/5 WAR players behind the Yanks.
I just wonder how much stock to put into the Red Sox disproportionate struggle vs. top tier opponents in 2009.
vs. NYY: 9-9
vs. TBR: 9-9
vs. MIN: 4-2
vs. DET: 6-1
vs. LAA: 4-5
vs. TEX: 2-7
That’s the 1st and 2nd place teams (and 3rd place for TB). That was a mediot storyline that had no merit to begin with.
this assumes alot, like, not a single player on the yankees getting better next year.
also, 1 win over .500 against the top talents in the league doesn’t prove whatever point you were going for.
I don’t think it was injuries that derailed them. They are done being productive (at a high level).V Mart was a step in the right direction, but they still have no one in the lineup that makes people fear them.
I agree about CB’s steps. They are needed and significant. I still would like to see another SP added.
You check their OPS split against the “top pitchers” relative to the other 3 playoff teams? It was BRUTAL.
http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Third_Party_Graphic/2009/10/08/aced_out__1254995855_5883.gif
I know that I’m not supposed to jump on the SSS bandwagon, but, oof. That’s kind of alarming.
And Tyler, I think that’s what the Sox prefer at this point. Why break the bank for one player when you can hedge your bets with two good ones?
Outside of Lowell, there’s no contract on the team right now that makes a person go “ouch”. Ortiz will make $13,000,000 in 2010 and I don’t think he’ll approach the ~ 3 WAR he needs to justify it, but he’ll likely be around 2, which is okay. Drew is a little better than his contract, Ellsbury’s still a young bargain, Pedroia, Youk, and V-Mart are big bargains, and as much as people are sick of V-tek, even okayness as a spell catcher is acceptable for $3,000,000. Lester’s dirt cheap relatively at $6 mil / year (he’s a 9+ K/9 guy for about 40% what he’d command on the open market).
Essentially, the Red Sox and Theo Epstein, even with all the money, aren’t looking to hit a home run with one FA signing. Part of the reason why they traded for Martinez, in my opinion, is that they’d rather have him going forward than pay 2x as much for Mauer.
“this assumes alot, like, not a single player on the yankees getting better next year.”
As I pointed out, the Yankees are old, had a number of career years and got lucky. Where can they get better? Joba and Hughes I suppose. But again, my point was not that the Sox are better to or equal to NY. My point is it wouldnt take a whole lot for the Yankees to lose their advantage. Theyre vulnerable due to their age at so many key spots. The Sox are comparatively, a younger team.
“also, 1 win over .500 against the top talents in the league doesn’t prove whatever point you were going for.”
I wasn’t “going for” anything. Someone characterized that record as a “disproportionate struggle.” That characterization is clearly not accurate.
cano is the only one on the roster that arguably had a “career year”.
why is it that when the red sox players get old, everyone thinks the team can just cast them aside and move on, but if a yankee gets old it’s the end of the world and the team is going to fall apart?
What you say, Tom B?
Rivera, 39: ERA+ 21% bettah than career avg
Damon, 35: OPS+ 18% bettah than career avg
Posada, 38: OPS+ 6% bettah than career avg
Jeter, 35: OPS+ 5% bettah than career avg
Matsui, 35: OPS+ 2% bettah than career avg
Aroid, 34: OPS+ 3% worse than career avg
Pettitte, 37: ERA+ 6% worse than career avg
Each of whom is over 34 years old.
And then we have:
Cabrera, OPS+ 14% bettah than career avg
Swisher, OPS+ 10% bettah than career avg
Cano, OPS+ 10% bettah than career avg
Sabathia, ERA+ 7% bettah than career avg
Teixeira, OPS+ 4% bettah than career avg
Burnett, ERA+ 4% worse than career avg
Note: I wrote that elsewhere on 9/7 so allow some correction.
If you MFY fans actually believe 2009 was a normal season for such an old group of players I can’t wait for your tears in 2010. Reversion to the mean will be a term that makes your stomach turn.
you should be familiar with the term, as 2004 and 2007 are what we call “peaking”.
As can be said about pretty much every other champ, except those repeat defenders, like the MFY of ’96’ – ’00.
But please do not assume that team is any better then they were 1, 2…8 years ago. It’s old; its FO still prioritizes sluggers over pitching and D; and let me be the first to bring to the fore: the team will be run efficiently once Papa Stein passes. And that means no more 1/2 billion dollar spending sprees to make up for one of worst farm systems in baseball.
Wait, Im confused Tom B… they didn’t have “career years”, but they’re “peaking”…?
Yeah, okay.
It must be exhausting talking out of both sides of your mouth, but as Yankee fan you surely have lots of practice.
a drive by snipe 3 days after the thread is over? typical.
If nothing else letting this story “leak” puts the Red Sox in better bargaining position with potential SS free agents like Scutaro. They might not even be actually considering it
Hey, if Ryan Theriot can do it (no arm at all), so can D. Peds
not to mention David MVP Eckstein…
haha. Touche. The name is but an irony though….
If only the Jays had done this with another natural SS, Aaron Hill.
First of all Pedroia can play shortstop and he’s had a lot of success in the past. In the minor leagues, he played shortstop and was only moved because of Hanley Ramirez. Pedroia played short in the University of Arizona and won the award for the conference’s top defensive player. His arm would be fine in short, for proof watch the video of him back in 2006: http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=7142455
what a great highlight real… a lazy popup to deep short, a shoft chopper that he had time to charge, catch, set, and throw to get ty wiggington, and a ground ball up the middle that the sox were shifted towards(for markakis it looks like) that he dove over the bag to make a play on.
yeah, i’m sold on his arm now.
People were playing his arm out to be terrible. In the video, his arm is not terrible. That’s all I’m trying to prove. It’s an average arm for a shortstop.
in the video he throws one ball on a play that could easily be made by 85% of the high school shortstops in the country.
if you are trying to prove his arms worth, find a video where he actually does something impressive.
I hate the idea of the Red Sox getting Scutaro. What makes everyone think he can maintain his 2009 level of production? What says he doesn’t return to his ~.320 wOBA pre-2009 self? Plus, he has been an average to below average fielder throughout his career other than one season (2008), which is too small of a sample to mean a whole lot with UZR. Moving Pedroia could be a great move…I would be all for it. Shortstop has plagued the organization since the departure of Garciaparra….although it would open up a hole at 2nd, it would be great to finally have a long-term quality SS. Plus, it would keep the Sox from going after Renteria take 3.
I have little doubt Pedroia can be an average SS next season. Its a very wise move, by a very wise and wealthy franchise just to publicly consider it.
What about Lowry?? Always thought he would make a better 2nd sacker.
Moving Pedroia to shortstop opens up the possibility of another position switch — Adrian Beltre to second base. Beltre’s great defensively and his offensive numbers would see a huge boost going from Seattle to Boston. When Mike Lowell’s contract expires, they’d have the ability to sign or promote any infield position, with the flexibility provided by Pedroia/Beltre/Youkilis.
WHAT? You want to move the best defensive third baseman in the game to second? What even led you to think he could play second base?
What an oddly content free article.
Where’s the table of the handful of people who have made the switch having their numbers compared? Are there MLEs for fielding when he played some short? Scouting reports from his draft class.
What about comparing some prominent utility guys? There’s more of them than 2b to SS transfers. For instance, Alex Cora has reverse UZRs for 2b/SS over his career. Derossa is only a run worse SS to 2B. Alexei Ramirez was always expected to be a short stop.
It doesn’t even say what sort of offensive level he would have to produce to offset X runs lost to defensive inefficiencies.
What was the point of this article again?
The fact that it’s not exactly common to move a gold glove caliber player to another position while they’re still fielding said position at a high level.
Imagine if A-Rod goes down in the first inning of 2009 and Girardi says “I’m moving Teixeira to 3B because he’s good defensively and can handle it, and we have more options for 1B within the system.” There would be people throwing a shitfit.
people would be throwing a shitfit because that would make absolutely no sense. it’s not even relevant to this situation. moving from SS to 3b? 2b to SS? CF to LF? those all make sense because the positions exhibit similar skill sets. nothing about stretching for a ball at 1b translates into catching screaming line drives at 3b or throwing 120feet across the diamond..
There’s just no analysis in the article, which is rare and disappointing for FanGraphs. I would expect this sort of blurb on rotoworld or mlbtraderumors, but not here.
“His career UZR/150 at second base is +7.4, and the observed effect of players shifting between the two middle infield positions is between 5 to 10 runs. Pedroia’s UZR would suggest that he would be something like an average defensive shortstop.”
Is the most compelling chunk of info in the article, but isn’t backed up by any substantiated numbers. It’s a good topic, that’s why I complained. Are players bound to their position too often? This article offered the author an opportunity to offer a methodology for judging players switching positions but he shirked it (Sorry Dave, I like most of your articles!).
I’ve heard it said Longoria would make a fine shortstop. It’d be interesting to see a methodology to support/refute that opinions. *hint* *hint*
First off, you asked why this article was written, and I used an analogy to explain why. Teixeira also started as a 3B in the minors. Obviously 3B is much tougher than 1B, but both require the ability to field screamers, which is to the observational eye what Teixeira seems to be pretty good at.
But I digress, what kind of analysis is there really to give? Pedroia’s never played SS at the MLB level, but he’s played it at the college and minor league level enough for us to use the “go with what we’ve seen” angle. Not really sure how much more digging we can do outside of the eye check, which is obviously not as good as UZR, but also, it’s better than citing his minor league RF or Fielding %.
And what’s the positional adjustment, like, 2.0 per 600 PA for a 2B and 7.5 per 600 PA for a SS? So maybe Pedroia projects to be a +1.9 UZR/150 level SS if/once he gets his legs under him at the position?
I’m just not sure what kind of analysis one could want when there’s no real data to back it outside of eye checking and wild ass guessing.
Did you already know that the Red Sox were considering moving Pedroia to shortstop before reading this? There have been tons of studies on the effect of a position change on the value of a player….this is clearly not meant to be an analysis of how Pedroia’s value would be affected by a position change. Most likely it would not change at all. The point is that the added flexibility it would give the Red Sox in filling their vacant position could be very valuable.
“this is clearly not meant to be an analysis of how Pedroia’s value would be affected by a position change”
to clear that up, I mean beyond the argument that Pedroia could make the switch fairly smoothly, I don’t think it’s supposed to be an analysis of how Pedroia’s value would be affected by a position change.
I hate hilariously small genitalia.
*have, not hate. Man, I am just boatloads of stupid today.
I do know that among the cess that is a lot of my fellow Sox fans, there exists a good deal of smart Red Sox fans as well. Many of them have wanted to see a move to SS for Pedroia, since he has played there plenty in the past, and he’s more athletic now than he was then.
But to Sky: Beltre at 2nd base? Signing a 31 year old Free agent to play a position that he’s played a grand total of 1 inning at while in MLB? Even given Beltre’s defense, that’s a bit risky, don’t you think? I do agree that he’d see a nice offensive spike at Fenway, though (maybe closer to his 2008 Fenway-adjusted line of .278/.340/.474).
Then again, the Red Sox do need a 3B going forward (and Youkilis is probably too 1B-ified to move back over full time), and Beltre shows no sign of losing anything defensively. Essentially if you think his ISO will pick back up (and losing at his 2009 HR/FB mark vs. career, I can almost guarantee it will), then Beltre could be a very nice addition to the Red Sox.
the sox better do something with this positional logjam they created, and IMO it should involve youkilis starting 3B or LF permanently. if they think that v-mart is just going to go back to being a full time catcher with no issue they are in for a big surprise.
That’s why Varitek will still be a help (I wouldn’t be shocked if he still gets 1-2 games a week routinely).
And Youkilis, as much as I love the guy and how he plays, is NOT an outfielder. At this point, he’s been at first for so long, I’d worry a bit how his defense would look in a permanent 3B role.
Damn.
For those wondering why we are assuming typical skillsets can transfer between positions with known adjustments:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/position-adjustments
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/second-base-is-the-new-third-base
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/historical-position-adjustments
a Book Blog search link that’s too long to post
http://www.google.com/custom?domains=www.tangotiger.net%3Bwww.insidethebook.com&q=position+adjustment&sitesearch=www.insidethebook.com&sa=Google+Search&client=pub-9367275287626489&forid=1&ie=ISO-8859-1&oe=ISO-8859-1&safe=active&flav=0000&sig=IskSIC4St6d0i8HO&cof=GALT%3A%23008000%3BGL%3A1%3BDIV%3A%23336699%3BVLC%3A663399%3BAH%3Acenter%3BBGC%3AFFFFFF%3BLBGC%3A336699%3BALC%3A0000FF%3BLC%3A0000FF%3BT%3A000000%3BGFNT%3A0000FF%3BGIMP%3A0000FF%3BLH%3A50%3BLW%3A417%3BL%3Ahttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.insidethebook.com%2Fspinetilt.jpg%3BS%3Ahttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.insidethebook.com%3BFORID%3A1&hl=en
I’d still feel a lot better if I had some examples of guys who made the switch.
I played 2B and 3B growing up, and while it’s not exactly a SS/CF difference, it wasn’t exactly the same, either.
You do realize you’re talking about the exact same position switch that utility IFers make all the time?
there is a huge difference between a backup player switching positions a few times a month, and a full-time player trying to play a new position at a high level over a full season.
Still, it’s the position he played most of his life until just a few years ago. He isn’t really learning a new position any more than Asdrubal Cabrera was last year. Scutaro comes a lot closer to having actually done that, if you ask me.
yes, but he wasn’t good enough(arm strength) to be a major league shortstop. His abilities at second base outweighed his shortcomings as a powerless slaphitter to allow him to play in the majors. I understand that he was moved because of all the other SS’s in the organization, but we’d be speaking of him in the same light as cabrera, or scutaro if he was brought up as a SS, not as a former MVP second basemen.
I bet Jose Lopez’ dead-pull RH bat would work out pretty good at Fenway. Assuming the Sox have something to deal the M’s want, of course. And if the Sox would rather give up talent than money to fill the need at 2B.
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pedroia, a 3 foot 9 inch second baseman going to shortstop, brilliant.
so much for the “all world” sox farm system and the prospects. I thought they had the second coming of honus wagner ready to step up, like lars anderson was the next lou gehrig.
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