Picking On Pence

A couple weeks back, the Astros made the unusual announcement that they would definitively be going to an arbitration hearing with Hunter Pence. This was unusual, because generally team execs like to leave things open-ended. But sometimes, when you know you have the advantage, you choose pistols at dawn. And in their case with Pence, the Astros clearly have the advantage.

Pence filed at $6.9 million, the Astros at $5.15 million, a difference of $1.75 million. While not the largest difference of those who exchanged figures this offseason, it was nearly double the median difference between player and club. Like Jose Bautista, Pence’s figure was high enough that there are no good recent comps among his position group on his side of the midpoint. Unlike Bautista, Pence’s platform season wasn’t good enough for him to float such a high number. However, he does have a small window from which to build his argument. As a three-plus player, it is open to each side’s discretion how they would like to weight career and platform season, and Pence does have some bulk advantages for his career.

Pence’s main comparables are Andre Ethier ($5.5 M, 2010), Alex Rios ($4.84 M, 2008), Matt Holliday ($4.4 M, 2007), Luke Scott ($4.05 M, 2010), Shin-Soo Choo ($3.98 M, 2011), Ryan Ludwick ($3.70 M, 2009) and Nelson Cruz ($3.65 M, 2011). Ethier, Rios and Scott are good ones in particular, as like Pence, they were Super-Two’s. Among the group, we find that the only one with as many career games played is Ethier, but even though they had both played 580 games, Pence accumulated 204 more plate appearances than did Ethier. As a result of the extra playing time, Pence has piled up more hits, homers and RBI than his peers. But despite his 200-plus plate appearance advantage over everyone in the group, he is not tops among runs scored, doubles, triples or stolen bases. In addition, Pence drags in terms of rate stats – he places fifth out of eight in batting average, seventh in slugging, and tied for last in on-base percentage.

To make matters worse, Pence’s platform season just doesn’t stack up:

Player	Year	PA	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
Shin-Soo Choo	2010	646	31	22	90	0.300	0.401	0.484
Matt Holliday	2006	667	45	34	114	0.326	0.387	0.586
Ryan Ludwick	2008	617	40	37	113	0.299	0.375	0.591
Nelson Cruz	2010	445	31	22	78	0.318	0.374	0.576
Andre Ethier	2009	685	42	31	106	0.272	0.361	0.508
Alex Rios	2007	711	43	24	85	0.297	0.354	0.498
Luke Scott	2009	506	26	25	77	0.258	0.340	0.488
Hunter Pence	2010	658	29	25	91	0.282	0.325	0.461

As you can see, Pence comes in dead last in OBP and SLG, and the highest he placed in any category was fourth. Even in those instances, the edges were slight, unlike in OBP, where he was 43 points below the group’s median. Furthermore, while Pence’s season didn’t garner any special recognition, the others did. Holliday, Ludwick and Rios were All-Stars during their platform season; Holliday, Ludwick and Ethier were awarded Silver Sluggers; and Holliday, Ludwick, Ethier and Choo all finished in the top 16 or higher in their league’s MVP vote (Ethier was the highest at sixth).

With all of these players safely on the Astros side of the midpoint, it seems as though it would be tough to argue that Pence deserves more than them. It becomes even tougher when you realize that the only corner comps on his side of the midpoint are slugging first basemen. And if Pence’s platform season can’t compete with the power numbers of the Ludwick’s, Choo’s and Rios’ of the world, he certainly doesn’t have any business claiming his numbers go toe to toe with the Ryan Howard’s, Justin Morneau’s, Miguel Cabrera’s and Prince Fielder’s of the world.

Hunter Pence has been a durable player whom the Astros have relied on heavily these past four seasons, and as a result, he has accumulated some shiny bulk statistics. But his career numbers are not bulletproof, and his platform numbers are bullet-riddled when compared to others who earned less than for what he is asking. Add these factors to the Astros’ recent success in arbitration hearings, and I would be surprised if Pence emerges from his hearing with the Astros victorious.