Picking On Pence
A couple weeks back, the Astros made the unusual announcement that they would definitively be going to an arbitration hearing with Hunter Pence. This was unusual, because generally team execs like to leave things open-ended. But sometimes, when you know you have the advantage, you choose pistols at dawn. And in their case with Pence, the Astros clearly have the advantage.
Pence filed at $6.9 million, the Astros at $5.15 million, a difference of $1.75 million. While not the largest difference of those who exchanged figures this offseason, it was nearly double the median difference between player and club. Like Jose Bautista, Pence’s figure was high enough that there are no good recent comps among his position group on his side of the midpoint. Unlike Bautista, Pence’s platform season wasn’t good enough for him to float such a high number. However, he does have a small window from which to build his argument. As a three-plus player, it is open to each side’s discretion how they would like to weight career and platform season, and Pence does have some bulk advantages for his career.
Pence’s main comparables are Andre Ethier ($5.5 M, 2010), Alex Rios ($4.84 M, 2008), Matt Holliday ($4.4 M, 2007), Luke Scott ($4.05 M, 2010), Shin-Soo Choo ($3.98 M, 2011), Ryan Ludwick ($3.70 M, 2009) and Nelson Cruz ($3.65 M, 2011). Ethier, Rios and Scott are good ones in particular, as like Pence, they were Super-Two’s. Among the group, we find that the only one with as many career games played is Ethier, but even though they had both played 580 games, Pence accumulated 204 more plate appearances than did Ethier. As a result of the extra playing time, Pence has piled up more hits, homers and RBI than his peers. But despite his 200-plus plate appearance advantage over everyone in the group, he is not tops among runs scored, doubles, triples or stolen bases. In addition, Pence drags in terms of rate stats – he places fifth out of eight in batting average, seventh in slugging, and tied for last in on-base percentage.
To make matters worse, Pence’s platform season just doesn’t stack up:
| Player | Year | PA | 2B | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 2010 | 646 | 31 | 22 | 90 | 0.300 | 0.401 | 0.484 |
| Matt Holliday | 2006 | 667 | 45 | 34 | 114 | 0.326 | 0.387 | 0.586 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 2008 | 617 | 40 | 37 | 113 | 0.299 | 0.375 | 0.591 |
| Nelson Cruz | 2010 | 445 | 31 | 22 | 78 | 0.318 | 0.374 | 0.576 |
| Andre Ethier | 2009 | 685 | 42 | 31 | 106 | 0.272 | 0.361 | 0.508 |
| Alex Rios | 2007 | 711 | 43 | 24 | 85 | 0.297 | 0.354 | 0.498 |
| Luke Scott | 2009 | 506 | 26 | 25 | 77 | 0.258 | 0.340 | 0.488 |
| Hunter Pence | 2010 | 658 | 29 | 25 | 91 | 0.282 | 0.325 | 0.461 |
As you can see, Pence comes in dead last in OBP and SLG, and the highest he placed in any category was fourth. Even in those instances, the edges were slight, unlike in OBP, where he was 43 points below the group’s median. Furthermore, while Pence’s season didn’t garner any special recognition, the others did. Holliday, Ludwick and Rios were All-Stars during their platform season; Holliday, Ludwick and Ethier were awarded Silver Sluggers; and Holliday, Ludwick, Ethier and Choo all finished in the top 16 or higher in their league’s MVP vote (Ethier was the highest at sixth).
With all of these players safely on the Astros side of the midpoint, it seems as though it would be tough to argue that Pence deserves more than them. It becomes even tougher when you realize that the only corner comps on his side of the midpoint are slugging first basemen. And if Pence’s platform season can’t compete with the power numbers of the Ludwick’s, Choo’s and Rios’ of the world, he certainly doesn’t have any business claiming his numbers go toe to toe with the Ryan Howard’s, Justin Morneau’s, Miguel Cabrera’s and Prince Fielder’s of the world.
Hunter Pence has been a durable player whom the Astros have relied on heavily these past four seasons, and as a result, he has accumulated some shiny bulk statistics. But his career numbers are not bulletproof, and his platform numbers are bullet-riddled when compared to others who earned less than for what he is asking. Add these factors to the Astros’ recent success in arbitration hearings, and I would be surprised if Pence emerges from his hearing with the Astros victorious.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
Ethier and Rios are 1st year numbers in multi-year deals; Choo, Holliday, Ludwick, and Cruz are all 1st time arbitration eligible players NOT 2nd time eligible like Pence. The only apple for apple comp you list is Luke Scott who was coming from a previous salary of $2.4 while Pence is coming from $3.5. So basically, none of the comps you list work. Do you want to try again?
To be fair, its a toss up between the complete misassessment of the comparable universe or the grand total of zero words talking about Pence’s requested RAISE (the controlling issue in any 2nd/3rd time arb eligible player w/r/t platform yr performance) of 3.4mm (2.5ish to midpoint) that’s the bigger flaw in this article. Though i suppose name dropping 4 other first basemen with zero relevance showing an even deeper misunderstanding of who he is comparing himself to probably wins.
I see you don’t mention defense anywhere in your stats, but focus exclusively on the offensive side. Is there a reason for that?
It’s been said that some arbitrators barely understand RBIs, much less advanced defensive stats.
I’ve heard that too, but I’ve consistently failed to buy it. These are at least college educated + people you’re working with and a concept like RBIs just flies right over their head?
Chicks dig the long ball…..maybe arbitrators do too?
It’s all about plate discipline. If Pence walked more it would change some things up about how he is regarded. In his defense he does play some. I believe even most defensive metrics concur and that should factor into all of this as well.
As far as his platform season, rate-wise it was actually his rookie year in 2007. His BABIP was through the roof that season. His defense would probably nudge him ahead of a few on the list above, or at least someone like Luke Scott…but I do agree he’s not winning that arb hearing.
For the love of God, please stop using apostrophes to pluralize. Please.
I agree 100 percent. In fact, it’s my biggest pet peeve on multiple fronts… For one, I hate it when anyone pluralizes a name when making a comparison to that player (or a player that supposedly belongs in a group of like players). You know, like the Fred McGriffs of the world. God, I HATE that. It’s not only bad grammar, it’s just plain idiotic. Just say, “go toe to toe with guys like Ryan Howard, Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.” If you need to somehow lump them together, find an adjective that makes your point. Like this, “…go toe to toe with elite first baseman like Ryan Howard, Justin Morneau….”
But people sound like morons when they pluralize the names of players. The other thing, of course, that annoys me about how this particular author used it, has already been stated twice — it’s NOT possessive!
In the end his point was understood, and since we only write for about 10% of our communication, I wonder if you should really care at all.
Also if he wrote out their names without the apostrophe, it might be harder to link.
Is fangraphs a grammar site all of a sudden?
Grammar is only part of what I was saying — a small part if you actually read the bulk of the post. The other is that people sound like complete idiots when they pluralize a name. Comprehension skills are important.
“Also”… It doesn’t matter what percentage people communicate with in writing (nice made up number, by the way), it still needs to be done correctly if you want any credibility as a writer. Because, you know, he is communicating with all of us here through writing in this article 100 percent of the time.
“Also”… It would be easier to post a link to the player pages if he just used their names (as I suggested)… knuckle-dragger.
As for you, Tony, nice canned response. Don’t see that one often. You may have lower standards for what you like to see published, but for those of us that like to actually use our brains and have some modicum of standards, poor grammar is simply unacceptable. But, of course, like a typical message board tool, you managed to completely ignore the main premise behind my post – that pluralizing names is simply annoying and really makes little sense.
Why so much venom, Mr. Spandex?
“…like a typical message board tool, you managed to completely ignore the main premise behind my post…”
Similar to how you posted a response about apostrophes and plurals to an article about Hunter Pence?
Sincerely,
Message Board Tool
Just leave wat. No one wants you here. You are not funny. Just leave dude.
…the Ryan Howard’s, Justin Morneau’s, Miguel Cabrera’s and Prince Fielder’s of the world.
the howard’s what? the morneau’s what? the cabrera’s what? the fielder’s what? i just don’t understand that last sentence…
Pence has won his arbitration hearing… guess he deserved it after all.
Yeah…didn’t see that one coming. Maybe his defensive value won out. Or maybe his durability was rewarded as well. Good for HP.
Priceless. Mr. Swydan and credibility. Dead.
Because, of course, no one else has EVER BEEN WRONG BEFORE. ABOUT ANYTHING.
Just how shallow are you?
enjoyed the article much more than all yr. nasty comments. jesus you must all be republicans.
Of course, despite a good point, you go and ruin it all with an idiotic jab of your own. Labels don’t matter…the actual validity and quality of thought does.
Republican…Democrat…grammar teacher or beggar. If their quality of thought is good, great, if not move on, nothing to see here.
Doe anyone ever actually THINK anymore. *sigh*
Just saw your later post – please disregard mine. 🙂
At least the article (still) makes more sense than the arbitration process.
I enjoyed the premise of the article too. I must, however, agree with the grammatical criticisms. Just because FG isn’t a “grammar” site (are there grammar sites?) doesn’t mean sloppy writing and grammar should be accepted. This man is writing and publishing and should take the time to use the language properly. Grammar in the comments section doesn’t matter to me because none of us are making the pretension of being “writer’s” in the comments section.
The critique could have been handled FAR more tactfully however and the criticism needn’t have described the writer as “idiotic”. He was simply wrong in his grammar usage. Doesn’t make him an idiot, a jerk, a moron or anything other than simply wrong in this one instance.
Grammar isn’t the only thing that is lacking on the internet, the critiques made it comically apparent that manners, etiquette, and simple decency are solely lacking in the comments section of even the most well reasoned and intentioned blogs.
Oh and I’m not a Republican. . . . are Republican’s suddenly notorious for critiquing grammar. If anything I think it would be so called “elitist/egghead” liberals like myself. I’m a classic example of your typical grammar appreciating egg head, elitist roofer who makes his living sweating four stories above the ground.
I’m going to give you the benefit of sophisticated irony (based on your sentence exempting commenter’s (hey! possessive!) grammar from your critique) and assume that both “writer’s” and “Republican’s” were in fact intentionally improper uses of the very thing you lambaste Mr. Swydan for.
I think the far greater problem with this article was its misleading analysis, rather than a dangling modifier or oxford comma. Admittedly, there are more constructive ways to point that out than being a tongue-in-cheek-dick as I was previously, but forgive me I expect an article purporting to deliver a substantive analysis of one player’s arbitration case, to be backed up by 1) at least a rudimentary understanding of the arbitration process and criteria and 2) research based on that understanding.
The fact that Pence won to me is irrelevant to whether this article was good or not (personally I think Pence reached on his raise-to-midpoint arguments and was surprised myself to see him prevail). The failure was in the fundamental misunderstanding of what the issues of Pence’s case would be, and who the players on either side would be. There is precious little accurate analysis of this process it seems to me, and anytime someone further clouds that I react with snark and lact of tact.
Whose with’s m’e!?
Oh yeah– the republican mention was a joke. Just a comment on the contentiousness of all discussion nowadays. Is our country now not divided bitterly between Red Sox and Yankee fans? Between those with an East Coast Bias and those without?
Grammar problems can really grate, but it seemed most of the commenters just went straight to attack mode, starting from the first. Watch they don’t turn their knives on you.
But it was worth the minute of tea time it took for me, despite the horrible apostrophes. I guess I took it as a piece of news, not being aware in that moment of Pence’s upcoming arbitration.
Cheers,
dc