Pitcher Contact-Management Update: New Qualifiers

A few weeks back, we took a look at the 2016 contact-management performance of qualifying pitchers in both leagues. Since then, a number of new qualifiers have emerged. Today, we’ll utilize tools such as plate-appearance-outcome frequencies, exit-speed and launch-angle allowed to see how these hurlers have performed in this vital area.

The data being examined today runs through July 10, the Sunday prior to the All-Star break, and includes all ERA qualifiers as of then. Pitchers in the table below are listed in Adjusted Contact Score order. For those of you who have not read my articles on the topic, Adjusted Contact Score is the relative production, on a scale where 100 equals average, that a pitcher “should have” allowed based on the exit speed/angle of each ball-in-play yielded. Let’s start with the AL:

Most of the column headers are self-explanatory, including average BIP speed (overall and by BIP type), BIP type frequency, K and BB rates, and traditional ERA-, FIP-, and “tru” ERA-, which incorporates the exit speed/angle data. Each pitcher’s Adjusted Contact Score (ADJ C) is also listed. Adjusted Contact Score applies league-average production to each pitcher’s individual actual BIP type and velocity mix, and compares it to league average of 100.

Cells are also color coded. If a pitcher’s value is two standard deviations or more higher than average, the field is shaded red. If it’s one to two STD higher than average, it’s shaded orange. If it’s one-half to one STD higher than average, it’s shaded dark yellow. If it’s one-half to one STD less than average, it’s shaded blue. If it’s over one STD less than average, it’s shaded black. Ran out of colors at that point. On the rare occasions that a value is over two STD lower than average, we’ll mention it if necessary in the text.

Before we get to the pitchers, a couple words regarding year-to-year correlation of pitchers’ plate-appearance frequencies and BIP authority allowed. From 2013 to -15, ERA qualifiers’ K and BB rates and all BIP frequencies except for liner rate (.14 correlation coefficient) correlated very closely from year to year. The correlation coefficients for K% (.81), BB% (.66), and pop up (.53), fly ball (.76) and grounder (.86) rates are extremely high. While BIP authority correlates somewhat from year to year — FLY/LD authority is .37, grounder authority is .25 — it doesn’t correlate nearly as closely as frequency. Keep these relationships in mind as we move on to some player comments.

His raw numbers might not be all that exciting, and his first post-All-Star-break start may have been a dud, but CC Sabathia sure has done an impressive job of reinventing himself as a contact-oriented hurler. He has stifled contact of all types: his overall average exit speed allowed of 86.3 mph is best among AL qualifiers and is over two full STD lower than the AL average. He has managed to combine a high pop-up rate with a solid grounder tendency, a tough daily double to achieve. The big guy has been quite unlucky on grounders, with hitters batting .283 AVG-.304 SLG (150 Unadjusted Contact Score) at the break despite authority supporting a 76 mark. His overall Adjusted Contact Score of 70 paced the AL at the break, ahead of Chris Sale and Marco Estrada.

It’s pretty tough for a starting pitcher to keep his head above water with a K rate over a full STD lower than the league average. This is the situation faced by Kendall Graveman. He gives himself a fighting chance by running a high grounder rate and by yielding lower than league average authority on those grounders. Even then, league-average performance is nearly a best-case-scenario goal for such a hurler, barring an amazingly low BB or liner rate allowed. Graveman is very similar to the latest version of Doug Fister, a back-of-the-rotation stabilizer with a modest ceiling.

Trevor Bauer is a key part of an Indians rotation that has keyed a run to the surprise of many (but not yours truly, who picked these guys to get to the World Series). His emergence has been driven by a newfound ability to induce grounders, an area in which he had previously been below average. He has been a bit lucky, however, as he has allowed harder-than-average authority overall, on a line and on the ground. Through the break, Bauer allowed a mere .558 AVG-.769 SLG on liners (75 Unadjusted Contact Score), despite authority supporting a 105 mark. His “tru” ERA- of 91 is higher than his actual ERA and FIP marks as a result. He’s still a keeper.

Matt Shoemaker’s strong K/BB profile has been his best trait throughout his big-league career. His liner rate allowed has ping-ponged back and forth between very high, as it this year, and very low, as it does for many pitchers. There are some other clear positives here: he induces pop ups, for example, and the grounders he does allow are hit very weakly. He’s been quite unlucky on the ground this season, allowing a .274 AVG and .315 SLG (148 Unadjusted Contact Score) despite authority supporting just an 84 mark. The big negative? He allows fly balls, and many of them are hit hard. The overall package remains a positive one.

Ervin Santana is one of many pitching poster children for the just-ended Terry Ryan era in Minnesota. His raw numbers this season aren’t bad, but that’s due in large part to good fortune on fly balls. Hitters are batting just .324 AVG-.838 SLG (100 Unadjusted Contact Score) in the air against Santana, but the authority he’s allowed supports an adjusted 126 mark. About 30% of the fly balls he’s allowed have been hit at 100 mph and higher, compared to an MLB average of just over 20%. His K rate isn’t what it used to be, and his contact-management ability, never a strength, hasn’t improved to compensate.

Now, the NL add-ons:

After an injury blip early in the year, Jacob deGrom has gotten back to work establishing himself as one of the game’s best starters. A very strong K/BB profile gives him a very high floor. When combined with strong contact-management ability, it gives him one of the higher ceilings in the game, as well. He stifles ground-ball authority, and has performed as well as he has despite allowing a fairly high liner percentage. deGrom can post a 70 “tru” ERA- without breaking much of a sweat.

There’s a lot to like in Joe Ross‘ profile, as well. He’s managed to post well better-than-average ERA, FIP and “tru” ERA marks despite yielding an extremely high liner percentage, which is quite likely to regress as we move forward. His profile lacks obvious strengths, but just as importantly lacks weaknesses, as well. It’s a pretty impressive package, especially considering it’s his first full season. If he can develop into the grounder guy he was in the minors, watch out.

Jon Gray has made dramatic strides this season. His line is almost devoid of shading: he’s in the league average range in all categories except K rate, where’s he’s a bit above. Gray has been hurt on fly balls, as one might expect in Coors Field; hitters are batting .442 AVG-1.231 SLG (204 Unadjusted Contact Score), despite authority supporting only a 105 mark. His ability to rack up Ks and a representative number of grounders at altitude is a real positive; Gray sure does look like the best young pitcher developed by the Rockies in, like, ever.

Jake Peavy’s status as a regular starter is hanging by a thread. He allows a ton of fly balls, and they are hit quite hard; only his spacious home park and quality outfield defense keeps him viable. His high pop-up and low liner rates help, but the latter is ripe for regression in the wrong direction. He’s better than his ERA, but that’s not saying an awful lot. There’s a lot more risk than potential reward in his profile.

I’m proud to list myself as a Robbie Ray fan, but at present he is one of the worst contact-managers in the game. Ray has allowed tons of liners since arriving on the major-league scene; we’re still waiting for some regression. Even worse, he allows very loud contact in the air. Though his fly-ball-authority allowed is in the average range, over a third of his fly balls have been hit at over 100 mph, and his Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score of 185 is actually a bit higher than his unadjusted mark. His ability to miss bats is real, and is the main reason I still believe, but Ray must whittle down the sweet-spot contact he allows to take the next step.