Pirates Jameson Taillon Makes Successful Debut

By any statistical measure, Pirates pitching phenom Jameson Taillon’s 2011 was a success. Strong strikeout rates, low walk rates and less than a hit per inning leaves both Pittsburgh and prospect fans in general excited about his developing into the organization’s first top flight starter since Doug Drabek nearly two decades ago (Gerrit Cole has some say in this as well).

Did Taillon impress in person? Most definitely, but the young right-hander scouted quite differently than the numbers indicate. Taillon was actually quite raw and requires considerable refinement even though the numbers say otherwise.

In terms of size and physical development, Jameson Taillon is about as perfect a specimen as one could hope to find. Projecting for both power and durability, it’s easy to envision Taillon averaging 200 innings pitched per season in much more than the generic “workhorse” capacity. My only minor concern is that Taillon did not appear particularly athletic, but having pitched the season at 19, it’s quite possible the slight awkwardness may simply be due to maturing into his 6-foot-6 frame.

With a smooth, 3/4 arm action, Taillon comfortably sat at 94 MPH throughout most of the start working his 4-seam fastball up to 96 on a number of occasions (A contact had Tailling touching 99 MPH later in the season). Early in the outing, Taillon struggled to command the fastball leaving it over the heart of the plate far too often. When above the belt, the pitch flattened out considerably which an offensively challenged Savannah Sand Gnats team was able to handle. I suspect his difficulties early on were due to not finishing out front with his release point.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.

As the innings wore on, his command sharpened considerably with Taillon adding drop and arm side run down in the zone. However, it seemed as if each batter received one mistake fastball to drive and Mets Aderlin Rodriguez took full advantage depositing a belt high fastball 430 feet to straightaway center field for a majestic home run. Even with a number of mistake pitches, Taillon’s being able to make adjustments to sharpen his command was a positive sign.

Taillon also mixed in a 2-seam fastball at 90-91 MPH with more drop and run than his 4-seamer. Should Taillon develop command of both fastballs to the point where he is able to use them interchangeably, it would take pressure off of his changeup which lags considerably behind the rest of his arsenal.

In discussing his changeup, the 86-87 MPH offering was surprisingly underdeveloped. In using it only a handful of times, Taillon consistently left the pitch up in the zone and let up slightly in his throwing motion. From an organizational standpoint, I suspect refining the pitch will be a primary focus of Taillon’s off-season.

Taillon also flashed a slider at 83 MPH. The pitch was more “true” than what I normally scout at the level as it featured quick, late cut to miss bat barrels. It was an offering I had hoped to see utilized more often, but Taillon chose to work his fastball/curveball combination heavily.

At 79-81 MPH, Taillon’s curveball was easily his best breaking ball. Early on, he struggled to locate, suffering from a bit of wrist wrap off of his ear. This caused him to tip the pitch some leading to more “spinners” that lacked bite. As with his fastball, Taillon’s control of the offering improved throughout as his release point became more consistent and wrist wrap dissipated. By the fifth inning, it was at least solid average with room for additional growth.

In reflecting on Taillon, his outing was a bit of a mixed bag. Having traveled a little over four hours to scout him in person, the expectation was for me to leave the park with a firm belief he was the best pitching prospect I’d ever seen in person. However, Taillon fell a little short of “elite” status in my mind.

In 2011 alone, Taillon ranked as only the fifth best starting pitcher scouted behind Julio Teheran, Danny Hultzen, Rubby De La Rosa and Jarrod Parker in terms of pure “stuff”. Of course Taillon is the youngest of the bunch by at least a couple of years in most cases, but is only a mere 10 months younger than Teheran who has already built up the innings in triple-A to warrant a rotation spot in most big league rotations.

However, having scouted Teheran for three consecutive years has taught me just how quickly an elite prospect can improve. Taillon has the body and fastball movement to hit the fast track, but his lack of developed secondary offerings gives me pause when considering his upside potential. Do I love Taillon as a solid 2/3 at the Major League level? Absolutely, but not as the true ace so many are projecting him to be.

Instead of Roger Clemens or Josh Beckett, the best Texan to comp Jameson Taillon in terms of physique, arsenal and peripherals is John Lackey who has compiled a 3.91 FIP in nearly 1,900 Major League innings. Would Pirates fans be happy with this outcome? Considering the hype, probably not, but that projection would still leave Taillon as the best starting pitcher to don a Pirates uniform since the days Barry Bonds wore the yellow and black.





Mike Newman is the Owner/Managing Editor ofROTOscouting, a subscription site focused on baseball scouting, baseball prospects and fantasy baseball. Follow me onTwitter. Likeus on Facebook.Subscribeto my YouTube Channel.

74 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Eric
14 years ago

“would still leave Taillon as the best starting pitcher to dawn a Pirates uniform since Barry Bonds wore the yellow and black.”

Are you on drugs?

johnnycuffMember since 2017
14 years ago
Reply to  Eric

how about a counter example to back up your indignation?

word nerd
14 years ago
Reply to  Eric

As surely as the dawn brings black and yellow jerseys over the horizon, Bonds was the best starting pitcher I can remember….

Well-Beered Englishman
14 years ago
Reply to  Eric

Dude, Barry Bonds was a great starting pitcher.

Brendan
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

I think it’s obvious what you meant, but that sentence is worded terribly. You may have meant one thing, but it says something else lol.

Pat Golden
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

I agree with Brendan, changing it to “since the time Barry bonds wore yellow and black threads”

My bigger gripe is how does one “dawn” a uniform? Are the pirates rolling out new designs? I think you mean don

James Gentile
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

he meant dawn as in Dawn Drabek, the sister. There is no ‘Don” Drabek, only Doug, Kyle, and Dawn.

Pat Golden
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

Chill out newman, it was a good read, I’m just pointing out something that should be edited, have stuff like that takes away from the piece when other people read it… Chill out dude that wasn’t an affront on you

Baltar
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

Whew, Mike! You need to get a longer fuse.
The guys were mostly just having fun teasing you.
However, that last sentence was a poor piece of writing.
A potentially good writer should graciously accept the criticism and write better in the future.

Madoff Withurmoni
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

You still haven’t answered the original question of whether or not you are using illegal performance enhancement drugs. Does fangraphs even have a testing program in place for it’s writers?

Or perhaps the original commentor was actually asking if Barry Bonds was on drugs, to which we can reply….We think so, but haven’t actually been able to prove it yet.

Oh, and accidentally hit the -1 button instead of reply initially. Please disregard….or you can give it right back to me if it makes ya feel better. I deserve it.

NS
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

Yeah, Mike really seems to have flown off the handle here. Boy does he seem worked up.

Thanks as always for the vital tips on grammar & etiquette, passive-aggressive internet commenters. Saved us all from having to talk baseball.

drew
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

Mike,
I think you need to admit your mistake here. The sentence clearly should have read “…since the early 90’s.” To which I would have replied, “The early 90’s was a starting pitcher?!!”

the hitman
14 years ago
Reply to  Eric

no, but barry bonds is

Matt
14 years ago

Clearly he’s not saying Bonds was a pitcher. Drabek pitched for the Bucs back when Bonds and Bonilla were alson on the squad.

When was this game? I was under the impression that he used solely his fastball this year in game action. Is that not true?

From watching the video I am not impressed. Extreme wrist wrap on the curve although he seemed to throw a couple slide pieces that weren’t so bad. Not to much effort but inconsistent release point. Would have been nice to see how some of the pitches were finishing..

Matt
14 years ago

** also on

**not too much effort

Disclaimer – using a tablet so get over my typos

CabreraDeath
14 years ago

Not saying you are wrong, but there have been consistent and almost unanimous scouting reports saying that his CB is plus, even plus-plus. ‘Solid-average’ seems to be an outlier.

CabreraDeath
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

Fair enough, Mike. And, ironically, that is what I love about your reports/analysis: it isn’t based on others, to a large degree, but rather your own observations. Too often ‘prospecting’ becomes a herd mentality that others feel they have to agree with the consensus.

As a Bucs fan, I hope your relatively pessimistic report is inaccurate, but I love the breakdown and supporting logic you provide. It is definitely worthy taking into account.

Well done, sir.

joel
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

Mr Newman I enjoyed the article. I really like these type of articles where someone like yourself goes and sees him in person and talks about him. There was one about Profar a while back. Not sure if it was yours or someone elses but I liked it too. It doesnt mean I am going to take everything you say and write it in stone I will just add it to what others have said to help form an opinion.

You guys commenting about the wording of an article need to find something else to do. As he said he went to scout this guy, a long ways, and wrote about him. Thats a lot of time and you guys want to jump all over him while of course completely ignoring the content of the article. Very rude.

Once again Mr Newman thanks for your perspective and taking the time for this piece. This and others like it are some of my favorites on this site.

will
14 years ago

guys, we’re missing the real problem here: Newman compared this poor kid to John Lackey

what a horrible thing to say…..

will
14 years ago
Reply to  will

I realize that based on the previous comments I should note that was sarcastic…..

will
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

poor guy. what an unfortunate conclusion to come to.

here’s to hoping he bests that comparison, reaching freddy garcia levels

sigh.

tdotsports
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

At least he didn’t compare him to…. Bryan Bullington…

will
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

true, true. as a Sox fan, I just find it much easier to blame Lackey for everything because it turns out he’s not only overpaid (not his fault), but a real s#@$@%^# too (completely his fault)

i wonder if Taillon’s ever had champagne before….

Nationals Prospects
14 years ago

Dear God – Mike misspelled “don” as “dawn” — if you’re going to be anal-retentive Oblio, go all the way. Otherwise, as others have pointed out, he was referring to the early 90s, a.k.a. when Barry Bonds wore a Pirates uniform.

Shankbone
14 years ago

Subtlety. Not FG’s readers strong point. Nice article. The Bucs have some great prospects right now. Cole and Taillon could make a great 1-2 punch. They extend McCutch and pair up with Bell and Marte they could be a force.

johnorpheus
14 years ago

Pretty damning report of Taillon if you ask me, especially considering the orgs track record (or lack thereof) of developing pitchers. While they have perhaps the best raw ace material in ages in Taillon and Cole, I wouldn’t be surpised if they whiff on developing both and neither becomes more than a mid-rotation guy.

Hopefully Cole, being a more polished college guy, can make it through the Pirates’ player development without inexplicably losing every ability to pitch he had.

Hmm
14 years ago
Reply to  Mike Newman

What did Matzek top out at?

rbt
14 years ago
Reply to  johnorpheus

I have often wondered if the Pirates’ issues with developing pitchers is the result of them being a very strict 120 team. No long toss allowed at all.

Gorillakilla34
14 years ago
Reply to  rbt

That rule was brought on by the current FO/regime. Taillon and Cole are the only top pitching prospects that they have had a chance to attempt to develop so they have neither succeeded nor failed at developing a top pitching prospect… Yet.

Waluigi
14 years ago

Why do you think Baseball America insists on having so many future “aces” in their top prospects? They are, on average, about 2 pitchers who have the potential to be frontline starters. Do they just go with the absolutely highest ceiling possible and you go with the unlikely, but more reasonable ceiling?

Waluigi
14 years ago
Reply to  Waluigi

** There are, on average, about 2 pitchers listed per organization who have the ceiling of frontline starters.**

Josh Sharpless
14 years ago

I wouldn’t read too much into his breaking stuff not being too sharp, the Pirates essentially force their young pitchers in the lower minors to use mostly fastballs in order to gain better control. Thus, his breaking stuff may have been a bit rusty, and he probably hasn’t used it much in games in order to improve it anyways.

PiratesHurdles
14 years ago
Reply to  Josh Sharpless

This concept worries me a bit. If you look at the Bucs minor league numbers by SP, they have a ton of guys with very good K:BB ratios, but poor ERA compared to FIP (even lower level prospects). That is probably due to this fastball 1st push, but what worries me is that they may be developing SP into RP by focusing too much on one pitch and neglecting in game breaking stuff. I wonder if there is concrete evidence to support the fastball 1st and only approach? Any thoughts, Mike?

Connor
14 years ago
Reply to  PiratesHurdles

They aren’t neglecting the breaking pitches, they are just focused on in higher level. The theory is that it isn’t helpful to a player’s development to go out and dominate low level hitters with their breaking balls that are good for the level. So that gets worked on at a higher level, where the breaking ball has to be good in order to succeed, which should help it develop, while fastball command is worked on at the lower levels. It makes sense in theory, at least. And would make for some pretty odd numbers since batters could sit on the fastball. But at that level how much do the results matter as opposed to the pitch itself? I think the Pirates would say not very much, which is why they teach them to throw at the lower levels, and pitch at the upper levels.

PiratesHurdles
14 years ago
Reply to  PiratesHurdles

I guess that’s my question, do other teams use this approach? Is there evidence that this approach works? At what point is success better for a pitcher than using game action as a developmental tool? Take Zach Von Rosenberg for example, his K:BB (5:1, 8.2/9IP) was excellent but he got killed with HR balls most of the year (5.73 era). Is it better for him long term to struggle in A ball and improve his fastball or is it better to work on getting hitters out? Is there an parallel out there?

E-Dub
14 years ago
Reply to  PiratesHurdles

“Honestly, this is the first I’m hearing about it”

This is the only real problem with the piece imo. You can’t walk ten feet around the prospectverse without someone telling you about the Pirates having Taillon on a strict 75-pitch limit, mandating high usage of the FB, permitting sparing use of the curve and making little to no effort to develop the change. I respect the idea of scouting the player without knowing that beforehand, but to not research him a bit between the viewing and the article? It leaves you looking a bit out of the loop, as most of your criticisms are missing a context that many of your readers are well aware of.

I’m a big Mike Newman fan going way back, so take this as purely constructive.

E-Dub
14 years ago
Reply to  PiratesHurdles

Well, I shouldn’t say the only problem above. The Lackey comp seems questionable. Lackey debuted in the Northwest League at 20 and pitched nowhere near as well as Taillon did despite the CC experience, the extra year of physical maturity and Taillon’s pitching in Low-A. Taillon already shows better control and strikeout ability, and I’ll be surprised if either devolves to Lackey’s mediocre minor league rates. Aside from being the same height and having similar builds, I’m not seeing that one. Not to say Taillon couldn’t end up having a similar career, but I don’t think it would be a function of being much “like” Lackey.

Blackie
14 years ago
Reply to  PiratesHurdles

Thanks for the reply, Mike. I ran the Lackey comp past a couple of friends and they were equally perplexed. Wasn’t Lackey’s money pitch a big-breaking curve, while you’re noting Taillon’s as not special? And while Lackey had good velocity as a prospect and young pitcher I don’t recall it being in Taillon’s range. They just don’t seem very similar except physically. I completely support the idea that Lackey’s results would be desirable, but since one could make a case that Taillon’s debut was better than any single minor league season of Lackey’s — I’d say the closest would be Lackey’s Age 22 18-start stint in Arkansas — there’s obviously reason to expect better.

I’m much less willing to assume that Taillon is throwing bushels of changeups in his sides, or that this makes up for the fact that he’s not throwing them in games. I don’t think you of all people need to be lectured on the necessity of honing skills and pitches in game situations. No one cares how good your slider is in the bullpen. Like others I take your opinion on the curve as a highly informed data point, and I’m interested to see how indicative your viewing was. I’ve gotten multiple reports of plus curves from other observers, and anyone who remembers the one he threw in his Aflac appearance knows that he’s got it in him.

To the larger point (for me at least), I think it’s very wise to go in to a look untainted by outside information. To not avail yourself of other opinions after that? Wel, it’s a choice. 😉 Thanks as always for your excellent work.

Toz
14 years ago

Mike, just to quibble for a moment, FIP is not an “outcome.” The proper evaluation would be “Will Pirates fans be happy with 127W, 4.11ERA and 1.35WHIP over 9 seasons?” I have to think the answer is no.

Baltar
14 years ago
Reply to  Toz

Toz, you should apologize twice.
First, your comment is a quibble.
Second, you’re wrong. FIP is an outcome (without quotes). It summarizes how well a pitcher performed independently of fielding.
Mike’s sentence was perfect.

Andrew
14 years ago

Seriously, it’s not Mike’s fault that FG doesn’t have an editor.

quikclipze
14 years ago

It’s always nice to see an outsider’s opinion on a young player in the Pirates organization and for the most part there are some encouraging things said about Taillon in this article. I can understand leaning toward the side of pessimism, especially when it comes to pitching prospects, but I can’t help but feel this article was overly pessimistic. Case in point; you mention that “Taillon is the youngest of the group (the top 5 SP prospects)… [but] only a mere 10 months younger than Teheran who has already built up the innings in triple-A to warrant a rotation spot in most big league rotations.” You put Taillon down because he’s not as ML-ready as Teheran and you compare them by saying Taillon is “only” 10 months younger. A better comparison point than age would be how long they have pitched in the minors. Teheran just finished his FOURTH pro season and Taillon his first. It seems awfully foolish to say a first year pro isn’t as polished as a fourth year pro and to suggest that it somehow takes away from the first year player’s skill set because he won’t be in the majors as soon.

Ryan Kelley
14 years ago

Here’s one– Trevor Bauer is going to be a better starter than both Taillon and Cole. Another: Pirates are going to ruin all of that young talent with more trades and when they finally buy some free agents they’ll be of the Chone Figgins/Vernon Wells type.

Dmanel
14 years ago

I don’t know what it is, but I love listening/reading scouts talk/write about baseball. I always take away something that improves the way I watch the game.

tdotsports
14 years ago
Reply to  Dmanel

Because it is pure and doesn’t contain some of the snarky, negative stats only based attitude that can become tiresome.

It seems the articles most of the readers have been enjoying recently are these types as well as David L. and his interview series.

Keep these coming FG.

Great article Mike.

vote4pedro
14 years ago

Any thought to the line of thinking that Taillon didn’t throw a slider this year at all?

The MPH you report surely seems to support that he just overthrew his CB a few times. 3 mph of curve and slider difference, as well as a slider 4mph slower than a change seem exceptionally odd from all I know of baseball.

Rumplestiltskin
14 years ago

Mike, I have a few observations for you. I would have preferred to make them privately, but I don’t know how else to reach you.

1. If you are going to publish articles, it would be well worth the time to improve your spelling. Problems with spelling (and grammar) are going to be a distraction, at least. At worst, they detract from your credibility. Is this fair? Doesn’t matter. There are probably no more than a few hundred words that will cause you problems, maybe a few dozen that will cause most of them. Why let this be an issue? If nothing else, get someone to proofread your articles before you publish.

2. Defending yourself against excessive criticism is generally counter-productive. If you have made a factual error or reached an incorrect conclusion, acknowledge your mistake. If someone offers a reasonable debate, enter at your own discretion. But it is much easier to find faults with someone else’s work than it is to produce your own work. People who can spell but can’t scout and can’t get published will always enjoy pointing out your errors. Let them have their fun. Most readers will recognize that trolls and cheap-shot artists have very little to contribute. Responding to them makes you look over-sensitive, and encourages them to continue.

3. Regarding your resistance to publishing a top 100 prospects list: Kudos!

Antonio Bananas
14 years ago

Haven’t read all the posts, seems to me that his delivery takes a while, looks like he reaches far back. Are there any concerns that people will run on him a lot? Maybe this is just me watching the video too late at night/early in the morning.

Steve
14 years ago

Mike,

I was in attendance of said game. I am a diehard Pirates fan and live in Savannah now. I was just telling someone the other day about that home run you referenced. It was a bomb he definately left over the plate.

I don’t know after watching him that I agree that is only a 2/3 only because he is still young and developing. Its hard to say as you mentioned above that he could just absolutely tear up High A and start ascending through the minors quickly. As you said it was a small sample size.

Thanks for the write up and next time you come to Savannah email me. I would love to sit and discuss some baseball with you. Take care

JC
14 years ago

Man this write up is so depressing as a Pirates fan. John Lackey type with the 2 pick in the raft? Ugh. I hate that I like this damn team so much. I should quit and just move on but I can’t. At least I have the Steelers and Pens.

Thanks for the writeup Mike.