Pittsburgh Pirates Top 40 Prospects

Skenes is a ready-made, front-of-the-rotation starter who has yet to experience any kind of a speed bump in pro ball. He entered the season as the best pitching prospect in the sport and has only gotten better. His new splitter/sinker and increased changeup usage and feel are meaningful developments, and put him in rarified air for a pitching prospect. He is one of only five pitchers who has ever been given an FV grade this high at FanGraphs and he has done nothing but reinforce that grade as he dominates big league opponents. A Herculean physical presence with even bigger stuff, he is perhaps the most important part of an increasingly promising situation in Pittsburgh, a city whose baseball team has made three playoff appearances over the last 30 years.

Almost exactly two years ago, Skenes was still a two-way player at Air Force. His velocity climbed throughout that season, and at its conclusion a decision loomed as to whether he’d return to the Air Force Academy for a third year and effectively be locked into a two-year service commitment, or use the relatively new transfer portal rules to facilitate a one-year launching pad to pro baseball at a bigger program. Skenes transferred to LSU and was a member of the 2023 College World Series champions, a veritable All-Star team with several high-profile transfers, the closest thing college baseball has had to a Fab Five of its own. Though he was a first round prospect at Air Force, Skenes’ stuff, consistency, and physicality all took a leap at LSU. He ascended toward the very top of draft boards and was a justifiable first overall pick. His stuff was good enough for him to immediately compete with, if not overwhelm, major leaguers, but the Pirates gave Skenes some very specific developmental boxes to check before he was promoted. Namely, Skenes made his first ever start on four days’ rest (college starters pitch once a week). He debuted less than a year after he was drafted, at age 21.

All of this happened very quickly, and Skenes has been evolving and progressing the entire time. His velocity has been creeping north pretty consistently for the past two years, even now. His 2024 average fastball velocity (99 mph, peaking at 102) is up a tad compared to 2023. He tends to use his fastball as a finishing pitch and more evenly mixes in his panoply of secondary stuff early in counts. So far Skenes has paired this fastball most often with a hard slider. This was pretty comfortably his go-to secondary pitch in college. He manipulates the shape and velocity of it depending on what he’s trying to execute. It can bend in around 83-86 mph and act as a strike-stealing curveball, or it can peak around 90-92 mph and look more like a cutter. Traditional sliders are sandwiched somewhere between those two other pitch types. Because Skenes delivers from a lower slot, there are times when he gets around the side of his slider too much, and the pitch lacks the two-plane break of an untouchable one, but hitters have to be so keyed up to hit his 99-100 mph fastballs that they often whiff at those lesser sliders anyway. It’s maybe a plus pitch purely on stuff, but the east/west interaction Skenes’ slider has with his fastball and his ability to sculpt the shape of his breaker to the situation will probably help it play up.

We qualify Skenes’ slider as “his go-to secondary pitch in college” because his changeup usage has taken a leap in pro ball. Not only that, but Skenes has essentially developed a second changeup. He has a more traditionally gripped changeup from his amateur days, but he’s added a mid-90s “splinker” à la Jhoan Duran of the Twins and José Soriano of the Angels. It’s a modified two-seamer that uses something approaching a splitter grip. Skenes tends to pronate over the top of his traditional changeup. The baseball comes off his middle and ring fingers to create movement that bottoms out below the zone. This type of release actually imparts some spin on the baseball, so Skenes’ changeups tend to live in the low 90s at about 2,100 rpm, while his splinker sits more in the mid-90s, spins less (closer to 1,800 rpm), and has more tailing action toward the knees of right-handed hitters. The rate at which Skenes has learned some of these new tricks (including the way he changes position on the rubber depending on hitters’ handedness) is very exciting. This guy is better now than he was a year ago, when he was the first overall pick in the draft. He looks like one of the best handful of pitchers in the sport.

Jones ranked 62nd on our preseason Top 100 but broke camp with the big league club and has performed even better than we anticipated, especially from a strike-throwing standpoint. An extra tick of velocity compared to 2023, plus an improved changeup and command, elevated Jones into the top 20 overall prior to his graduation from rookie status.

His four most used offerings are all generating at least a plus rate of swing-and-miss as Jones pumps his upper-90s fastball past hitters at the belt and then toys with them with either his cambio or slider. An elite on-mound athlete who was also a draft prospect as a third baseman, Jones’ feel for release consistency has improved substantially since his time as a prospect. He’s a little undersized, and all that’s keeping him from the 60 FV tier, which is normally occupied by the best couple of pitching prospects in the entire sport, is some apprehension about his durability and a potential command regression because of how much effort it takes him to produce this kind of velocity. Regardless, he looks like an impact starter who’s going to make several All-Star teams, a dream draft-and-dev success for a franchise that badly needs those to compete.

The fourth pick in the 2022 draft, Johnson was one of the more accomplished high school hitters of the last decade or so and seemed like he might move quickly through the minors. But his post-draft foray into pro ball featured its fair share of awkward swings and a sudden inability to pull the baseball, and it looked like Johnson would need more polish and development than was hoped. He missed the first month of 2023 with a hamstring injury and struggled very badly with strikeouts upon his initial return, but he cut his Ks down to 20% after the All-Star break and hit .260/.451/.487 the rest of the season with no signs of slowing down even after a promotion to Greensboro. Not only did Johnson right the ship on paper, but he looked great. His body has become leaner and stronger since high school, and he was swinging with the ferocity that made him an exciting draft prospect.

So far in 2024, Johnson’s look has been more mixed. Even though his strikeout rates aren’t out of control, his underlying contact data is pretty concerning, with a sub-70% contact rate and sub-80% z-contact% as of list publication. He’s still swinging hard and has supreme control of the strike zone, but he’s struggling badly to cover the outer third of the plate.

Johnson is also struggling on defense. A high school shortstop who probably could have played there had he gone to Arizona State, Johnson was projected to second base in pro ball but still needs to improve if he’s going to stay on the infield. He’s playing with a high center of gravity and has shown poor hands of late. Johnson looks like he’s going to be a slower developmental burn than was hoped when he was drafted, but he still has rare lefty power and elite plate discipline (a miniscule 20% chase rate regardless of the count). The bust risk and variance associated with Johnson’s profile has definitely been elevated since he turned pro, but we’re betting on his bat speed and lauded personhood to carry him to an everyday role at the keystone.

Chandler was a two-sport, two-way high schooler who could have gone to Clemson for baseball and football. Instead he signed for $3 million as the first pick in the 2021 third round and was developed as a two-way player for parts of two seasons before focusing on pitching in 2023. Things went well. Chandler made 25 starts, worked 111 innings (a 60-inning increase from the season before) and, after all that, his fastball was still humming in at 95-96 mph in a dominant, one-hit season-capping outing for Double-A Altoona.

Back at Altoona in 2024, Chandler continues to impress with his raw stuff but has generated mixed results from a strike-throwing standpoint. He’s sitting 97 and working with plus extension and above-average vertical movement, allowing his fastball to play up a tick. His changeup has taken a leap in 2024 and looks like it will soon be Chandler’s best secondary pitch. It often has bat-missing action in the 86-90 mph range, and automated pitch tagging algorithms often conflate it with a two-seamer, so a note to team personnel that pitch data readouts about its performance may not be accurate. His slider hasn’t taken quite the same leap, but Chandler’s feel for locating it is slowly improving. Here again we have a bit of a problem with automated pitch tagging, which sees Chandler as having a cutter. This pitch looks like a cutter on paper but given Chandler’s high three-quarters arm slot, the pitch has downhill angle and two-plane movement that looks and plays like a slider in real life. It hasn’t been missing bats consistently in 2024, but we think its ceiling is still pretty exciting because of how hard Chandler throws it.

Though his delivery is a bit more effortful than most big league starters and he’s occasionally struggled with walks as a pro, Chandler’s athleticism and multi-sport background make us want to continue projecting on his command deep into his 20s. There’s still development happening here (for instance, Chandler made his first start on four days rest not long before list publication) and we want to see how his velocity responds to a more typical big league starter workload, but so far Chandler’s dev is going as well as could have been hoped when he was drafted, and he’s tracking like a mid-rotation starter. Unlike Jared Jones, he looks more like he’ll debut on pace with his chalk 40-man timeline in 2026.

Burrows had success as a starter throughout a 2022 split between Double- and Triple-A before shoulder inflammation effectively ended his season. The emergence of a consistently above-average third offering (a good changeup) reignited Burrows’ projection as a starter (he had been projected as a fastball/curveball reliever here in previous seasons, in part due to injuries), and across his 94.1 innings in 2022, he racked up 111 strikeouts against just 31 walks. Burrows then had Tommy John at the very start of the 2023 campaign. He returned for his first game action in about 14 months two days before list publication. His fastball sat 94-95 with 16-17 inches of vertical break. His trademark changeup looked like its usual nasty self, sinking in with power action at 86-88 mph. Burrows’ change induced a 53% miss rate in 2022 and his usage of it skyrocketed. Primarily a curveball-oriented guy before his injury, Burrows showed a new, harder slider in his 2024 debut, as well as his usual low-80s curve.

Burrows is on the 40-man and in his second option year. Given his injury history, it’s fair to say that he has substantial relief risk, but the addition of a fourth pitch makes it seem like Pittsburgh is staying the course with him coming out of rehab and will continue to develop Burrows as a starter. His command looks predictably rusty after the layoff and will need to rebound for that to occur, but Burrows has the pitch mix to be a good team’s no. 4 starter if indeed he can stay healthy and throw strikes like he did in 2022.

Ashcraft came back from Tommy John with a vengeance in 2023 and earned a 40-man roster spot. He was utterly dominant across his first 50 innings of Double-A to start 2024 and was promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis not long before list publication.

Ashcraft’s bread-and-butter pitch is his 88 mph slider, which has impressive length and depth for such a hard pitch. As of list publication, it’s generating incredible chase and miss rates north of 40%, as is Ashcraft’s slower, 82-85 mph curveball, which he uses more as a backfoot weapon against lefties. Though his arm angle creates relatively ineffective movement on his fastball, Ashcraft’s mid-90s velocity makes up for it somewhat. Similar to Quinn Priester, there might be some issues with Ashcraft’s fastball getting hit, or at least he may have to pitch off his breaking stuff more frequently against big league hitters and thus operate less efficiently from a strike-throwing standpoint. He has never had issues throwing strikes in pro ball but also hasn’t demonstrated starter-level durability because his career has been interrupted by injury and the pandemic. He’s already set a single-season career high for innings in 2024, his seventh in pro ball. If Ashcraft can maintain this level of velocity and control across 100-plus innings the rest of the 2024 season, then he’ll have an argument to make the back of the Top 100 list in the offseason, though his fastball’s playability might continue to be a barrier.

Even though he came from a mid-sized program and had a shorter track record than his peers as a draft-eligible sophomore, Harrington was one of the 2022 draft’s more stable prospects because of his command. He worked 127.1 efficient innings (3.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio) in 2023, mostly at High-A Greensboro. His 2024 got off to a delayed start due to a rotator cuff strain, but Harrington has looked whole and effective since returning as he continues to throw plenty of strikes at Double-A Altoona.

Harrington works with a pair of distinct fastballs and a power-sink changeup in the mid-80s. His ability to dot his fastball on the arm-side corner of the plate helps him set up his changeup to finish hitters off. His inability to do this for his slider via well-placed glove-side fastballs is still limiting his breaking ball’s effectiveness. Hitters can eliminate half of the plate while they’re facing Harrington, which might be an issue against big leaguers. The consistency of Harrington’s release and his on-mound athleticism are attributes that make us want to project his command to be plus at maturity. That in concert with a good changeup is often enough to facilitate a backend starter role for any pitcher. We think that as Harrington experiments with different breaking ball shapes (which he seems to be so far this year), he’ll find something that works and end up as a Dane Dunning type of starter.

A famous high schooler, Barco ended up matriculating to Florida, where he was part of the Gators’ rotation for all three years. His final season ended with a Tommy John. He returned from surgery in time to throw 18.1 innings in 2023, his first season in pro ball, and he struck out 28 batters over those limited frames while only walking six.

His delivery gives hitters a low-slot look with above-average deception because of how well his arm circle hides the ball, as well as there being generalized funk in the movements of his delivery. His fastball sits in the 92-94 mph range (which is up from before he got hurt) and frequently plays above that, though more because of his deception than outlier life or movement. Barco manipulates the shape on his 81-85 mph slider between a three-quarter, short tilting version and a sweepy, two-plane breaker that he uses more to get swing-and-miss out of the zone. He does a good job of mimicking his fastball arm speed when throwing his changeup, which has fade and depth to it and ranges from 83-86 mph. He also recently added a splitter that plays more vertical and has slight bottom action that occurs later than the changeup’s movement. He threw a split in high school that was exciting at the time and we think it will again be a meaningfully good pitch for Barco, who also looks noticeably stronger than when he was in college.

There’s more start-by-start variance in Barco’s command than is ideal for a starter prospect whose stuff requires him to have feel for location, but he’s only just back from TJ. He projects as a high-floor no. 4/5 starter.

Brannigan generated polarizing thoughts among the scouts we talked to during the compilation of this list. A former two-way player who was just returned from a June hamstring injury, Brannigan’s surface stats look pretty mediocre so far this season, but his underlying data is strong. He’s making a roughly average rate of contact and producing peak exit velocities in line with the big league average, which is an exciting combination for a potentially viable shortstop.

It’s often the case that eyeball scouting reports will reinforce the underlying data even when a guy isn’t performing on the surface, but that has not been the case for Brannigan, who our scouting sources tend not to like very much. Their issues frequently lie with his defense. While Brannigan’s hands can be inconsistent, he checks the boxes for range and athleticism, and he has an absolute hose. Yes, Brannigan is 23, but he hasn’t focused solely on being a position player for very long, and we think he might have late projection in this area that allows him to end up a cleaner fit at shortstop than some of the industry believes.

On offense, Brannigan’s swing looks like it will be vulnerable to good velocity as he climbs the minors. He hasn’t yet reached Double-A, so we should take his contact performance with a grain of salt. Brannigan loads his hands low and his swing is geared for extreme lift. We think this means he’ll cut underneath a lot of big league fastballs, but we also think this style of hitting will help Brannigan get to most of his power anyway. We’re stopping short of projecting Brannigan as a potential everyday player even though we could see how you might conclude that if you just look at the TrackMan spreadsheet. Instead, we think he’ll end up being a power-over-hit utility guy.

It seemed likely that the list of potential Players to be Named Later in the JT Brubaker trade with the Yankees was quite good given how effective a healthy Brubaker can be. The deal was completed at the very end of April, with Delgado sent from New York to Pittsburgh. Delgado is an electric athlete for a little 5-foot-7 guy. He has ambush power to his pull side and unbelievable range and arm strength on defense. This guy will turn inaccurate throws into his own highlight reel plays by finding a way to make a great tag or an acrobatic way to touch the bag. Delgado’s bat-to-ball ability is officially being tested at Low-A, where his strikeout rate has taken quite a leap. He’s smaller than a typical big leaguer by a lot. There’s more than enough athleticism here to overcome a lack of size, but unless Delgado’s feel for contact rebounds, he’ll continue to project as a switch-hitting utility guy rather than an everyday shortstop.

The Pirates signed De Los Santos for $1.2 million and despite struggling mightily in 2023 in Bradenton as an 18-year-old, the flashes he’ll show on both sides of the ball and his remaining frame projection still gives him a significant ceiling. The Pirates opted to put De Los Santos back in the Complex League to begin 2024 and he has responded by posting a .345/.410/.509 slash through his first 123 plate appearances with a 11/25 BB/K ratio.

De Los Santos’ operation in the box is very loose, and his bat stays in the zone for an extended period while also creating significant loft to go along with above-average bat speed. He’s struck out 24% of the time in his nearly 600 career plate appearances, but that’s more due to his tendency to expand the zone than a lack of feel for contact. On the dirt, his hands work well, and although he’s only an average lateral mover, scouts who have seen him at the complex this year like his instincts. The overall defensive chops will carry the glove enough that it projects to handle shortstop at an average level even once the frame is done filling out. De Los Santos gives good reason to dream big, and the confidence that he can continue to play shortstop raises his floor, but his overall ceiling hinges upon how much his approach will cut into his ability to produce contact as he faces more competent pitchers. The chance for big impact remains even though De Los Santos’ promotion pace has slowed.

Suero came to Pittsburgh from San Diego in the Rich Hill/Ji Man Choi trade at the 2023 deadline. He was one of the higher variance prospects in San Diego’s system, a lanky center fielder who stands out the second he gets off the bus because of his size. He was very skinny as the pro scouting community became familiar with him late in 2022, but he became considerably stronger in the months leading up to the trade.

Suero’s feel for center field is quite good. He eats up a ton of ground in the outfield thanks to his gargantuan strides and he actually has a chance to stay out there depending on just how big he gets. Suero has hit tool risk. His front side stays very high through contact and his levers are long, so he’s vulnerable in a few different ways. But this is also a long-levered, 17-year-old switch-hitter, and to expect him to have feel for his body and swing at this stage is unreasonable. Unfortunately, Suero hasn’t appeared in very many actual games in 2024 because he broke his hamate in mid-May and as of list publication, hasn’t played since. He is probably going to be a slow-developing prospect, but he has enormous upside as a switch-hitting center fielder with power.

Mueth is a long, lean, uber-projectable right-hander the Pirates took 67th overall in the Comp-B round of the 2023 Draft; they gave him $1.8 million to keep him from going to Ole Miss. He throws from a low three-quarters slot that assists in creating the nearly 20 inches of horizontal movement on his 92-96 mph two-seamer, which he is throwing a little harder than when he was in high school. Mueth’s lengthy arm circle causes timing inconsistency that results in erratic command. He also lacks present feel for both of his secondaries, and both his slider and changeup tend to vary drastically in quality from pitch-to-pitch. The slider is a short 82-86 mph breaker that at times will show above-average teeth, while at others it has loose spin and lacks sharpness. His changeup will flash significant fade at its best, but it’s even more prone to having limited action than the slider is. Mueth’s projected below-average command will be his biggest hurdle to remaining a starter long-term, but he’s so loose and lanky that it’s a no-brainer to keep him on a starter’s development path. He’s raw in most facets but also has a chance to throw very hard over time and develop a fastball in the style of a Tanner Houck or Camilo Doval, or any extremely low-slot pitcher you can think of. An exciting dev project, Mueth’s arm strength is progressing and it’s fine that, not long into his first full pro season, his others issues have not yet.

Matoma was playing at the Dodgers’ academy in Uganda (which MLB has since shut down because it was virtually all unsigned players working out at a team facility) when he was signed out from under them by Pirates scout Tom Gillespie, who has been scouting in Africa for over a decade. The super athletic little righty was among the hardest throwers in the 2023 DSL and his game is translating to stateside pro ball as he carves the Complex League in Florida.

Matoma is now touching triple digits with his fastball and sitting 95-98 mph with ease. He looks like a reincarnation of Yordano Ventura, a supreme little athlete with arm speed that breaks the sound barrier. He showcases a loose arm with a very projectable frame that might come into even more velocity as his body matures and adds strength. His command is far from precise, but Matoma throws enough strikes to warrant optimism that he can be developed as a starter, and the way his fastball plays won’t require him to be super fine with his location. His slider’s quality is very volatile pitch to pitch. He often gets on the side of it, which hinders the spin tightness and the authority of its break and results in the 85-89 mph offering varying greatly in shape. The best ones have short, three-quarters shape with late tilting action.

The foundation of a high-leverage relief prospect is already here, but we have no idea how to account for the way Matoma’s baseball background might leave room for all kinds of development on top of what he’s already doing. He’s athletic enough to be optimistic that he’ll eventually have a good changeup, too. This is a volcanic profile, a very talented athlete with huge arm speed who is great to have in the system. If you dropped a prospect like this into the draft, Matoma would get a $2 million bonus or more, which is why he’s FV’d in line with a second round pick here.

Blanco is a gigantic corner outfield/first base prospect who had the most present raw power in the January 2022 international signing class. He absolutely towers over his father, who was twice a Baseball America Top 100 prospect but spent most of his pro career in Japan. The younger Blanco signed for $900,000 and barely played in the 2022 DSL before he finally got on the field consistently starting in 2023.

Blanco’s power continues to drive his profile. His XL frame projects to feature plus-plus raw power at maturity, if not more. This is an athlete with rare size and strength for a baseball player who comps in many ways to Kyle Blanks. Blanco’s bat path is geared towards elevating the baseball, but his early-career strikeout totals have been inflated enough to signal this is going to be a long-term issue for him, so much that it might limit his ability to get to power. In his 40 games in the DSL last season, Blanco struck out 59 times in his 157 trips to the plate (37.8%) compared to just 17 walks. While he’s producing more contact on the Bradenton complex so far in 2024, his strikeout rate is still lingering around 30%.

Blanco projects to be a below-average defender in the corner outfield spots. He’s also been getting run at first base, but it ultimately doesn’t change his profile much if he’s passable at another position that’s low on the defensive spectrum. Last year, Eric compared Blanco to Franmil Reyes and that still feels like the most likely outcome, as Blanco remains a volatile, high-variance power-hitting prospect who may not be able to sustain a viable rate of contact in order to root himself in a big league lineup for several years.

Solometo was a very high-profile amateur pitcher, drafted in the second round but given a bonus commensurate with the 24th overall pick ($2.8 million) as one of several exciting high schoolers Pittsburgh landed with the pool space freed up by Henry Davis‘ under-slot agreement. His statistically successful 2022 and 2023 seasons contrasted with skepticism about how Solometo’s lackluster stuff would play against older and better hitters.

The slingin’ low-slot lefty has had an uneven 2024 and is running an ERA over 6.00 as of list publication. He has often worked only about three innings per outing and even has some single-inning relief appearances in the mix. His delivery evokes Madison Bumgarner’s long lefty arm stroke, but Solometo doesn’t have quite the same bodily looseness or arm strength. Many of his fastballs are erroneously auto-tagged as changeups because they’re so slow. His delivery creates an odd angle on a mid-80s cutter/slider that Solometo commands to his glove side. That pitch plays up against lefties for reasons that are probably obvious, but it isn’t a nasty pitch in a vacuum. Righties get a nice long look at everything Solometo does, and he could be very platoon-vulnerable against big leaguers. That makes changeup development, or anything that might help him deal with righties, important. It’s tough to assess Solometo’s changeup growth from an objective standpoint because his data sample is muddied by those mislabeled fastballs. On tape, it’s a slightly below-average offering that projects to average because of Solometo’s overall feel for location, which has come and gone a little bit this year but has otherwise been great for his entire prospectdom. Overall, his stuff is still far too light to consider him the mid-rotation type of pitcher, which has been true for a while now. Solometo is much more famous than he is talented (which isn’t his fault). He is a backend starter prospect, assuming he can right the ship that has gone a bit off course during the first half of 2024.

Pre-draft rumors pegged Kennedy as a tough sign given a strong commitment to LSU. The Pirates got a deal done for a cool million, nearly twice the slot amount in the fourth round. He was one of the younger players available in the 2022 draft but was shorter and more physically mature than most of his peers, even some who are a year or two older than he is. Kennedy’s lack of size combined with his low-to-the-ground delivery keep his fastball’s approach angle shallow and tough to get on top of for such a slow pitch. The vertical snap of his breaking ball plays nicely off of it and Kennedy commands it. While his changeup is still cutting on him a lot of the time, it has enough sink to stay off barrels even when it does, and you can project on it given Kennedy’s athleticism and lovely arm stroke. He’s posting great peripheral stats at Bradenton as of this writing and continues to project as a backend starter whose command and underlying fastball traits allow him to succeed even though he throws 90.

Severino is a loose, wiry infielder with substantial room to project on the frame. He came to the Pirates in the trade that sent Carlos Santana to the Brewers last year at the deadline. His 2023 season was limited to a mere 15 games between the Milwaukee and Pirates complex affiliates due to a hamate injury, but in just 63 plate appearances, he was able to slug five homers. Severino takes daddy hacks with big effort, loft in his path, and above-average bat speed. He’s repeating the Complex League, where about half of his hits to this point have been of the extra-base variety, including six homers in just over 100 trips to the plate.

As exciting of an offensive profile as Severino has, the defensive reviews from scouts haven’t been quite as glowing, with “inconsistent” and “erratic” being common descriptors used in reference to his ability at shortstop and third base. So far in his brief pro career, Severino has totaled over 300 innings in the field at shortstop, where he currently has just a .887 fielding percentage, with a .789 fielding percentage at the hot corner in over 200 innings at the position. This is looking like a power-oriented hitter who very well may end up in the outfield if the defense doesn’t take a drastic step forward on the left side of the infield. Still, Severino’s is a name you need to know moving forward because of the upside in the bat.

Feliz didn’t garner the biggest bonus of the Pirates’ 2024 international signees, but he checks a lot of the scouting boxes we covet. He’s a switch-hitting shortstop and a graceful athlete, and Feliz has a pretty good chance to stay at short. He’s of medium build and not really at risk of getting so big that he outgrows the position. This probably caps Feliz’s power projection to an extent, but he’s athletic enough to swing pretty hard already, though we’re hoping his lefty swing will shorten up some as he gets stronger and more comfortable switch-hitting. Feliz is a well-rounded middle infielder who feels like he’d be in the late second/early third round mix were he a domestic draft prospect.

Stratton attacks hitters with three pitches that have glove-side action: a mid-90s fastball that often has natural cut, an distinct low-90s cutter, and a sweepy mid-80s slider. All three pitches generated above-average rates of swing-and-miss at Triple-A in 2023 before Stratton made his big league debut late in the year. He broke camp with the big club in 2024 and has shown a meaningful improvement in his feel for locating his slider, with that pitch’s swing-and-miss performance taking a leap. His velocity is trending down somewhat as the 2024 season draws on, but Stratton looks like a very reliable middle relief option who has rooted himself on the active roster.

Nicolas spent much of his time at Ball State in the bullpen but was developed as a starter in pro ball until last season when, after struggling his entire career to keep his walk rate in the single digits, he was put in the ‘pen. He made his big league debut at the end of 2023, and after breaking camp with Indianapolis, he has been on the big league roster since the very end of April. Nicolas has dealt with some rookie speed bumps but still has the stuff of a big league multi-inning reliever, albeit one whose command limits him to a lower-leverage version of the role. Nicolas will sit 96-99 with angle that causes it to play down. Lack of command inhibits his super hard slider’s effectiveness, but it’s a nasty pitch that bends in as hard as 93-94 mph. His curveball, often 85-87 mph, also has incredible velocity for a pitch that has such traditional curveball shape. There’s still a chance that Nicolas will hone his bullpen velocity (he was only sitting 94 as a starter) and grow into a more meaningful role. For now, the rest of his rookie season will be about finding consistency and sometimes getting six outs at a time.

Reilly signed for $453,100 after the Pirates selected him in the fifth round of the 2023 draft out of Vanderbilt. He was an effective swingman and long reliever for the Commodores, but was moved to the minor league rotation in 2024 and is being developed as a starter. Reilly has a high-waisted, medium frame that is still on the lean side, so there’s some room for additional strength/weight in the coming years. Reilly works out the stretch, there’s substantial effort present in his delivery, and he throws from a very high slot, which contributes to the 20-plus inches of induced vertical break on his heater. His four-seamer sits 92-95 mph and has touched up to 97 mph so far in 2024, and it features plus riding life that has generated a 35% miss rate as of our data sourcing a couple weeks ago. It’s a power-over-precision operation with his fastball, which is an offering he doesn’t need to be overly precise with due to the effective life it features. He’ll throw sliders with downer action as well as some with more of a horizontal tilt. The cutter is a short, quick offering that Reilly especially likes to run in on the hands of left-handed hitters; it will be a very important pitch for him because the minimal action on his changeup makes it tough to project as a viable pitch for him.

It makes sense to stretch Reilly out and see what happens, but if we’re predicting his outcomes, they likely fall in relief. He already has a reliever look with the amount of effort his delivery requires, and we think his fastball could jump a grade by maximizing velocity in short, one-inning bursts. Reilly projects as a middle-relief type with the capacity to handle a higher-leverage role if he can tame the walks. He’s someone who could move quickly once the bullpen transition eventually happens.

Florentino has a much power projection as any Pirates DSL prospect, including several hitters who signed for more than the cool $395,000 he did. At a broad-shouldered 6-foot-4, Florentino has room for a ton of mass and strength, and he already has pretty impressive raw power for a hitter his age. His swing has a huge, damage-seeking uppercut path that is so extreme even Gervonta Davis wonders if Florentino should tone it down. It might eventually lead to elevated strikeout rates, but that hasn’t been a part of the prologue of Florentino’s career. Because his size will likely limit him to first base down the road (he’s playing a mix of first base and the outfield right now), Florentino is going to have to hit a ton to profile, but his highly entertaining swing looks like it’s at least going to enable him to check the power box on the scout card. Over time he’ll prove whether or not the contact portion is there, but so far, so good.

Bidois is leading the Pirates system in swinging strike rate as of list publication, and while we do like him, we’re a little confused as to how he’s generating his nearly elite 20% rate. Bidois’ fastball has real juice, but its angle should theoretically detract from its effectiveness more than it seems to be. He’s using it roughly 65% of the time. Bidois’ slider is also generating huge results even though it doesn’t have consistent finish and his feel for locating it is mixed. At times, it has nasty vertical depth, while at others, it looks like a cutter. It looks like an above-average pitch, but it’s performing like a plus-plus one. It’s plausible hitters are so desperate to get on top of Bidois’ fastball that they’re being fooled when it isn’t what he throws. We’re skeptical he’ll keep carving to this degree, but think Bidois will be a solid middle reliever.

Peralta looks like your standard, steady lefty middle reliever. His fastball has average velocity, but he hides the ball well and creates upshot angle on the pitch. His low-80s slider lacks raw spin, but it’s still the grim reaper for lefties, who are hitting .180 against Peralta as of list publication. It’s feasible he’ll be added to the 40-man after the season and debut in 2025.

There were stretches at BYU when Nielson was throwing very hard, and though his velocity has settled into an average range, he is still having success in the mid minors. He tossed 46.2 frames in Greensboro last season, striking out 24.9% of the batters he faced and walking 9.9% in the Grasshoppers’ closer role. He’s back there again in 2024 and having a nearly identical season from a strikeout and walk standpoint. Nielson throws from a three-quarters slot and creates a crossfire angle with his stride direction that gives lefties an especially uncomfortable look because everything he throws starts behind them. His fastball can touch as high as 96 mph and sits in the 92-95 mph range with solid carry, especially when elevated, and he looks confident attacking hitters with his heater in the zone. Nielson will vary the shape on his 80-83 mph curveball, but all versions maintain their quality spin, which averages over 2,800 rpm. His change is a low-impact pitch, rarely flashing fade and sink. Nielson projects as a future single-inning, middle-relief type who will be especially effective at neutralizing left-handed bats.

Far from hole-y Toledo, Jeral has pretty exciting plate coverage for such a young, projectable switch-hitter. He tracks pitches well from both sides of the plate and is especially adept at altering his posture to get the barrel on high fastballs. He has surprising pull ability for a relatively long-levered hitter, and has room for yet more strength on his body. Defensively, Toledo looks like he’s landlocked at second base, and unless he begins to branch out and become more versatile, Toledo’s forecast is binary: Either he hits enough to be an everyday second baseman or he’ll be tough to roster. The linchpins of Toledo’s profile are his strength and future power.

Ramirez signed with the Pirates during the 2022 international signing period for a $120,000 bonus. 2024 is his first taste of stateside action after posting an .836 OPS in the DSL, where 12 of his 26 hits last summer went for extra-base hits. Ramirez’s plus arm strength and the flashes of power he’s shown in game action as an 18-year-old have already caught the attention of some pro scouts who’ve covered the complex circuit in Florida. Ramirez has loft in his path, with consistent, aggressive intent in his hacks. He does show a tendency to expand his zone, especially against secondary offerings, which eats into his hit tool projection. Defensively, Ramirez has a tendency to be a bit jumpy and stab at incoming pitches, which hinders his ability to consistently get borderline calls, and he also struggles at times to cover an average amount of ground when moving laterally to block balls in the dirt. He has a plus, accurate arm, which allowed him to throw out 27 of 50 attempted basestealers (54%) in 2023. Ramirez has the makings of a bat-first catcher who will provide more offensive thump than just a backup. The risk profile of teenage catching dilutes his FV grade somewhat here.

Castillo is an 18-year-old right-hander with a slight, underdeveloped frame that has plenty of room to project on. Along with the frame, Castillo has a loose, easy arm action that will likely enable significant velocity gains as his body continues to mature. He throws a sinker and a four-seamer that both range from 91-95 mph, but he leans a lot more on the two-seamer, which has solid tail and sinking action and has averaged 16.3 inches of horizontal break in 2024. His four-seamer doesn’t have outlier life, but when it’s up in the zone, it sneaks up on batters because of the angle that his release point creates. Castillo’s 80-84 mph breaking ball is a two-plane bender with plus spin that has varying amounts of depth because of his tendency to get on the side of it. His 85-88 mph changeup is prone to showing minimal to no action, but it will flash enough depth to slip under bats. This is an arm to keep tabs on because of Castillo’s high degree of projectability, even though his stuff reads like that of an up/down emergency starter type right now.

In August of 2022, Shim announced he would skip the September KBO draft in order to sign with an MLB club right away. A few months later, the Pirates emerged as the word-of-mouth favorite to sign him; he inked a deal for $750,000 in January of 2023. He was shut down after two starts with a pec strain and returned at the very end of the season for two more. He hasn’t pitched yet in 2024 due to a shoulder injury.

When healthy, Shim’s fastball sits 95 with above-average life. His slow, mid-70s curveball is easy to identify out of his hand, but it has lovely shape and depth of break, so perhaps it can be sculpted into a more traditional big league breaking ball because of his proclivity for spin. Opinions on Shim vary because he offers less physical projection than is typical for a 20-year-old pitcher, but there’s big arm speed here and big riding life to Shim’s fastball. The effects of a pro strength and conditioning program might kick-start him down the path toward finding a more consistent release and sustaining the big velocity as a pro starter, which he might even be able to focus on during this injury rehab period. That’s a very walkable path. Still, the teenage pitcher demo is bust-prone and, anecdotally, this seems especially true when the prospect in question already throws really hard at age 17 or 18 and immediately gets hurt multiple times once turning pro. Those risks apply here.

Alfonzo is a power-hitting catching prospect who has now had offensive success in a little over 100 A-ball games, with an OPS approaching .800 in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Lefty-hitting catchers with this kind of power potential are rare. Alfonzo has a low-ball swing and tends to be a little bit late against fastballs, but he’s a physical and explosive rotational athlete whose swing’s loft should help him get to power. Alfonzo is still very raw as a receiver and framer, but he has an impact arm. At age 20, it’s too soon to pull the plug on his development as a catcher, but there is first base risk here and probably not enough hit tool to support a role there if Alfonzo has to move. He’s more of a flier and sleeper prospect until he solidifies his defensive fit behind the plate.

The former 64th overall pick in the 2021 draft has had a tough time staying on the field since beginning his pro career and 2023 was no exception, as White had another season (61 games) cut short by a thumb injury. The Pirates paid him $1.5 million to bypass his football and baseball commitment to Penn State, and as you’d expect from someone with that background, White has a sculpted frame and plus-plus foot speed. White utilizes that speed to cover up sometimes inefficient outfield routes (which can be attributed to a lack of consistent reps), but his feel for tracking down balls is impressive and should be expected to progress even further the more in-game experience he’s able to get.

White’s offensive profile is built around his above-average bat strength, with his approach geared towards selling out for power. While he does a good job of keeping the ball off the ground, he’s not making productive, authoritative contact in the air regularly enough to actualize his raw power. White will give glimpses of how much he’s capable of punishing the baseball, and given the athlete he is, there’s room for optimism that the in-game power production will progress the more at-bats he’s able to accumulate. White’s defensive ability gives him a built-in floor that’s higher than most. He projects to be an outfield-bench type whose profile is predominantly carried by his glove.

The classic right field profile (power projection, arm strength, hit tool questions) is common in the international amateur arena. There are scouts who think Brazoban’s is a turbocharged version of that profile, and that the big-framed lefty has enough pop to be elevated an FV grade above this. We don’t see quite enough twitch or overt athleticism for that but still think he’s a fine (if low-floored) corner power prospect.

Chen was the 22nd-ranked player on the 2019 International Player section of The Board and was generally seen as the best signable high school prospect in Taiwan. After pitching well at the U-18 World Championships and at a Nike showcase in Asia, he signed for about $1.25 million, which is pretty sizable for a late-market signee. Chen began his career with 26 consecutive walk-free innings in the 2021 Florida Complex League and then had nearly identical 2022 and 2023 seasons, with a 24.5% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate as Chen passed the A-ball test and ate 120 innings. He hasn’t been missing bats quite as consistently in 2024 at Altoona. Chen’s curveball hasn’t been playing as well because, compared to his downhill heater, it’s easy to identify out of hand. Previously projected as a stable backend starter prospect, Chen now looks more like a changeup-oriented spot starter.

Even though his style of hitting evolved out of a “slash and dash” phase that took advantage of A-ball defenses, Cheng’s offense has petered out some as he’s reached Double-A. Cheng’s plate discipline remains very impressive, but he hasn’t become meaningfully stronger even as he approaches his 23rd birthday. He is, at times, overwhelmed by upper-level velocity, and his lack of power and contact quality are diluting the performance of his hit tool below his bat control talent. He can still play a fair shortstop thanks to flashy actions and advanced field awareness. This is a bottom-of-the-40-man type because of his defensive ability.

Jebb was the Pirates’ second round pick (42nd overall) in the 2023 draft out of Michigan State, where he posted a .337/.438/.495 slash with more walks (32) than strikeouts (28) in his last collegiate season. Jebb’s frame is thin and lacks strength, but he also isn’t a player you necessarily want to see make significant strength gains because of the risk it sacrifices his quick-twitch, plus-plus speed attributes. His operation in the box is simple, with minimal moving parts along with a compact, flat path and an all-fields approach.

Jebb had an encouraging showing in his first pro action at Bradenton, where he posted a .297/.382/.398 line with a 17/11 BB/K ratio across 153 plate appearances. 2024 has been a different story for Jebb. He’s really struggled in Greensboro, striking out about 25% of the time while his walk rate has dropped below 10% (8.8%) as of this writing, including a 23.2% in-zone whiff rate. Jebb has split time between second base and shortstop. He’s shown his hands are solid enough to handle both, but he has fringe arm strength at present and is a better fit for second base. Jebb’s contact ability and quality will need to get back on track for him to project to anything beyond a low-tier bench utility type, and ideally we’d like to see him play defense at positions besides second base. His speed makes center field a logical choice, and it might soon be imperative for Jebb to show he can go get it out there.

Despite Caro’s slight frame, he gets his money’s worth with his hacks until he’s in a two-strike count, when he’ll tone down his operation and have a more contact-oriented approach. He slashed .310/.440/.504 over 159 plate appearances during the 2023 DSL season while striking out at a 20.8% rate, and he’s hitting for power again in 2024 while cutting his Ks.

Caro is the type who is capable of more juice in game action than he is in BP because he’s lacking in pure strength and benefits when the pitcher is supplying some velocity in the equation. There’s natural loft in his bat path without sacrificing the amount of time it stays in the hitting zone, and he’s a pest for pitchers thanks to his ability to grind out at-bats.

Defensively, it’s a profile that is limited to second base due to his below average arm, and Caro projects to just be passable at the position overall. This is the type of player who is held back from a bench infielder projection because he’s only able to handle one position on the dirt, and at a fringe-average level at that. Regardless, Caro is a fun player worth knowing because this is the type of guy who squeezes every drop out of their physical ability. Caro has an all-or-nothing puncher’s chance to be a primary second baseman, and his performance is trending in a favorable direction. The risk and time associated with his profile limit his FV grade.

Meis has simultaneously enjoyed a little velocity spike and an improvement in his strike throwing in 2024. He also has two plus breaking balls, a two-plane slider in the 83-86 mph range and a slower 12-to-6 curveball. Meis is always going to be an inefficient strike-thrower because he’s trying to live just above the strike zone with his fastball. His heater has downhill plane that makes it hittable when it’s any lower. His breaking stuff is very nasty and should allow him to play an up/down role.

You might be wondering why the Pirates promoted Mateo to the domestic complex after he had an 18.75 ERA in the 2023 DSL and it’s because he throws this hard. He has a chance to develop an elite fastball thanks to his current arm strength and flat-angle plane at the top of the zone. Mateo badly needs to gain control of his very explosive body; he’s a few gym badges short right now and has walked well over a batter per inning as a pro. His secondary stuff is inconsistent. He has a sweeper and changeup, but he might be better suited throwing a more traditional hard slider. A purely developmental relief prospect with huge arm strength, Mateo’s potential outcomes are all over the map.

Siani’s swing has changed pretty substantially in 2024. His stance is way more upright to start and his bat path has been altered to help make Siani better able to contact pitches at the top of the strike zone. His overall contact rates have taken a leap from 2023 (64% overall, 73% in the zone) to 2024 (80% and 90%, respectively) seemingly thanks to the changes. Siani has also become more aggressive this year and is chasing more, especially with two strikes. His overall offensive performance has improved and he was promoted to Double-A for the first time in early May. He is still not a great defensive outfielder and would be limited to the corner spots on a big league roster due to poor feel. Siani doesn’t have prototypical corner power, but if he can sustain this level of contact, he’ll at least reach Pittsburgh, even if it’s in a menial bench role.