Player Development Case Study: Slap Hitters

Most statistical research is done by looking at large populations and immense data sets to find trends and patterns, but case studies can also be very useful when one wants to look at a particular context. That’s what I would like to do here. Instead of looking at minor league players in general, I would like to use certain scouting profiles to examine current major-league players and how they performed in the minors to see if there are patterns we can find that will help us highlight prospects. Today, I’ll take a look at slap hitters.

When we talk about slap hitters, we generally mean smaller (in height) and/or slighter (in build) players who prefer to use their speed to get on base. What this usually means is sacrificing power by using less torque and a line-drive swing to put the ball on the ground and spray line drives. The hope is that the player posts a higher BA and OBP while making an impact on the bases by stealing and taking the extra base to offset the presumed lack of power. Let’s look at some examples.

Jose Reyes – 107 career wRC+

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	G	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%	ISO	BABIP
2000	17	APPY	Rk	49	159	.250	.359	.318	23%	13%	.068	.347
2001	18	SALL	A	108	435	.307	.337	.472	16%	4%	.165	.363
2002	19	2 Lgs	A+-AA	134	622	.288	.343	.444	12%	7%	.156	.322
2002	19	FLOR	A+	69	327	.288	.353	.462	11%	9%	.174	.312
2002	19	EL	AA	65	295	.287	.331	.425	14%	5%	.138	.333
2003	20	IL	AAA	42	181	.269	.333	.356	14%	8%	.087	.319

Jose Reyes is up first. The switch-hitting shortstop moved through the minors quickly and as a very young man. He was able to maintain batting averages in the .280-.300 range by making a lot of contact and sustaining BABIPs in the .310-.330 range. Unlike many of the other players on this list, Reyes was already beginning to show signs of power, but he was also unable to draw many walks – something that plagued him early in his career.

Brett Gardner – 100 wRC+

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	G	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%	ISO	BABIP
2005	21	NYPL	A-	73	335	.284	.377	.376	15%	12%	.092	.329
2006	22	2 Lgs	A+-AA	118	529	.298	.395	.370	17%	13%	.072	.373
2006	22	FLOR	A+	63	278	.323	.433	.418	18%	15%	.095	.414
2006	22	EL	AA	55	251	.272	.352	.318	16%	11%	.046	.331
2007	23	2 Lgs	AA-AAA	99	448	.281	.369	.378	17%	12%	.097	.347
2007	23	EL	AA	54	241	.300	.392	.419	13%	14%	.119	.357
2007	23	IL	AAA	45	207	.260	.343	.331	21%	10%	.071	.336
2008	24	IL	AAA	94	426	.296	.414	.422	18%	16%	.126	.374

Next up is Mr. Gardner. Gardner struck out a bit more than Reyes, but he was also able to obtain BABIPs in a higher range – generally .330-.375. Continuing with the contrast, the lefty outfielder couldn’t hit for the power of Reyes, but he did a much better job of drawing walks, which has become one of Gardner’s greatest offensive assets. While there aren’t too many similarities between Gardner and Reyes, they held fairly low K%, didn’t have K% that worsened as they moved up, and maintained high BABIPs.

Michael Bourn – 92 wRC+

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	G	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%	ISO	BABIP
2003	20	NYPL	A-	35	153	.280	.404	.296	18%	15%	.016	.361
2004	21	SALL	A	109	510	.315	.431	.467	17%	17%	.152	.391
2005	22	EL	AA	135	614	.268	.348	.364	20%	10%	.096	.337
2006	23	2 Lgs	AA-AAA	118	535	.277	.356	.385	19%	10%	.108	.342
2006	23	EL	AA	80	361	.274	.350	.365	19%	10%	.091	.336
2006	23	IL	AAA	38	174	.283	.368	.428	19%	11%	.145	.356

Bourn looks a bit more like Gardner – higher walk rates, low ISO, and very high BABIPs. The speed that these hitters typically display will help with the BABIPs – that makes sense given that guys who just slap the ball around without any speed would probably just hit into a lot of groundouts. Bourn was hitting for a bit more power than Gardner, but Gardner was striking out less and walking a bit more.

Gregor Blanco – 90 wRC+

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	G	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%	ISO	BABIP
2002	18	SALL	A	132	570	.271	.392	.385	21%	15%	.114	.352
2003	19	CARL	A+	126	527	.271	.357	.375	22%	10%	.104	.351
2004	20	CARL	A+	119	495	.266	.339	.401	23%	9%	.135	.344
2005	21	SOUL	AA	123	486	.252	.367	.384	26%	15%	.132	.351
2006	22	2 Lgs	AAA-AA	139	629	.290	.403	.360	17%	15%	.070	.368
2006	22	SOUL	AA	66	302	.287	.397	.375	19%	14%	.088	.371
2006	22	IL	AAA	73	327	.294	.408	.346	16%	16%	.052	.366
2007	23	IL	AAA	124	545	.282	.369	.362	16%	12%	.080	.340

Blanco is an interesting case. You’ll notice high K rates and more power in the lower levels and his first trip to AA, but he rapidly changes the next season, sacrificing significant power for a much better contact rate. At that point, Greg White begins to start fitting the Bourn/Gardner mold of the .280 batting average with a high walk rate and relatively high strikeout rate, though his rates were finally below 20%.  Those BABIPs get really high as well – .340-.370.

Juan Pierre – 85 wRC+

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	G	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%	ISO	BABIP
1998	20	NORW	A-	64	290	.352	.399	.402	4%	7%	.050	.368
1999	21	SALL	A	140	648	.320	.366	.390	6%	6%	.070	.340
2000	22	2 Lgs	AA-AAA	111	506	.331	.380	.388	5%	7%	.057	.351
2000	22	SOUL	AA	107	489	.326	.376	.380	5%	7%	.054	.346
2000	22	PCL	AAA	4	17	.471	.471	.588	0%	0%	.117	.471

Pierre and Ben Revere, who is up next, share more in common with each other than the rest of the group. The elder lefty outfielder almost never struck out, and he walked little but more than he struck out. Pierre, however, demonstrated zero power with ISOs frequently in the .050s, but he had his excellent contact rates and high BABIPs – again in the .340-.360 range – to fall back on.

Ben Revere – 81 wRC+

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	G	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%	ISO	BABIP
2007	19	GULF	Rk	50	216	.325	.388	.461	9%	6%	.136	.363
2008	20	MIDW	A	83	374	.379	.433	.497	8%	7%	.118	.416
2009	21	FLOR	A+	121	517	.311	.372	.369	7%	8%	.058	.333
2010	22	EL	AA	94	406	.305	.371	.363	10%	8%	.058	.342
2011	23	IL	AAA	32	141	.303	.338	.364	8%	4%	.061	.325
2012	24	IL	AAA	23	101	.330	.360	.340	6%	4%	.010	.352

The Man With Zero Career Major-League Home Runs also had excellent contact rates while not walking a lot or hitting for much power. Once Revere made it to the upper minors, those ISOs fell to around .060, but he still had BABIPs in the .320-.350 range.

Emilio Bonifacio – 79 wRC+

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	G	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%	ISO	BABIP
2003	18	PION	Rk	54	172	.199	.298	.219	25%	10%	.020	.282
2004	19	MIDW	A	120	450	.260	.306	.319	27%	6%	.059	.368
2005	20	MIDW	A	127	591	.270	.341	.330	15%	9%	.060	.325
2006	21	CALL	A+	130	608	.321	.375	.449	17%	7%	.128	.386
2007	22	SOUL	AA	132	596	.285	.333	.352	18%	6%	.067	.349
2008	23	2 Lgs	AAA	93	438	.314	.361	.397	16%	7%	.083	.377
2008	23	PCL	AAA	85	402	.302	.348	.387	16%	7%	.085	.364
2008	23	IL	AAA	8	36	.452	.500	.516	11%	11%	.064	.519

Bonifacio is about the point where a player becomes offensively inept enough that even his speed, baserunning, and defense make people wonder whether he’s worth giving significant at-bats to. With Bonifacio, you see the upper bounds of this group’s K rates – around 16-18% – and the lower bounds of the walk rates – 6-8% – along with poor power numbers – ISOs in the .060-.080 range. Boni’s speed, however, gave him high enough BABIPs to remain viable.

Prospect Focus: Billy Hamilton

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	G	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%	ISO	BABIP
2009	18	GULF	Rk	43	180	.205	.253	.277	26%	6%	.072	.286
2010	19	PION	Rk	69	316	.318	.383	.456	18%	9%	.138	.391
2011	20	MIDW	A	135	610	.278	.340	.360	22%	9%	.082	.362
2012	21	2 Lgs	A+-AA	132	605	.311	.410	.420	19%	14%	.109	.395
2012	21	CALL	A+	82	392	.323	.413	.439	18%	13%	.116	.406
2012	21	SOUL	AA	50	213	.286	.406	.383	20%	17%	.097	.374
2013	22	IL	AAA	123	547	.256	.308	.343	19%	7%	.087	.311

Billy Hamilton is easily the most notable “slap hitter” of the prospect world, and his hitting is in question. How does he compare to the group? Looking first at his age, he’s arriving at the right age (22) – every member of this group makes it by 24, and most make it by 23 – so that’s a positive first step as age is one of the most important qualities of prospects. Hamilton’s K rate range of 18-20% is a little high for this group, and while he had a couple really high walk rates last season, the other walk rates of 7-9% are toward the lower end of the group. Despite the concerns about his power, Hamilton’s ISOs aren’t dissimilar to others in the group, and you’ll note his BABIPs of .360-.400 are definitely in the upper range of the group, which is not surprising given the hubbub about his speed.

My concern here remains the high strikeout rate because the others with high strikeout rates add higher walk rates or power rates, and his BABIP took a nasty dive this season to .311 and took his BA and OBP down with it. Looking strictly at the numbers here, Hamilton appears most like Emilio Bonifacio. Bonifacio has mostly been a 1-win player over the course of a season, and given my belief that Hamilton can add above-average to better defense in center to slightly to significantly more value on the bases than Bonifacio, Hamilton might find himself a 2-win player with the chance for more with some BABIP/HR fluctuation.