Players Who Were Better Off Bunting
Bunts were more topical before the Royals discovered how to hit home runs in the playoffs. But bunt fever can never be cured, only controlled. Hopefully people have a more nuanced view of bunts. Jeff Sullivan recently discussed how the Royals’ bunts this year actually have not been so bad according to Win Probability Added, a tool I also use in my annual Best and Worst Bunts posts (the anticipation is building!).
While much of the positive value of bunts comes from the chances of the defense making errors. A WPA analysis takes into account the game state — at some point things like one-run strategies are pretty good ideas. Moreover some players are better bunters than others, and some players are such poor hitters that bunting might be more advisable for them than others.
Looking back at the 2014 regular season, which players were better off bunting?
More than one might think, actually. There are a number of angles one might take to figure out which players were “better off bunting.” WPA might work, or, if you want to get rid of the leverage elements, one could use RE24. But let’s take things to something closer to a context-neutral sandpoint, using wOBA (which itself is just a particular implementation of linear weights).
I took each hitter’s line and calculated his wOBA subtracting the bunts. Then I calculated the player’s wOBA when bunting. I then compared the two. I am treating all bunts for hits as singles, and all bunts that are not counted as hits as singles outs. Obviously, misses much of what makes bunts potentially good or bad, for examples, reached on errors or double plays. It is a blunt instrument, but might be revealing. Keep in mind that this is just observed performance during the 2014 season, not an estimate of true talent, which is another limitation.
The players surveyed had to have at least 15 bunts, as otherwise it includes too many sluggers who laid down a few surprise bunts. That’s a good strategy, but sort of misses what I was trying to get at — players who bunt relatively frequently and were better off doing it than when they swung away in 2010.
Of the 17 players with at least 15 bunts and 400 plate appearances, 11 had a better when bunting than when not. of the 30 with at least 10 bunts, 17 were better off bunting. In other words, the regular players who are bunting the most were good at it this season. The players (or their managers) are generally making good choices. This is not to say that the players who were not as successful by this measure should not have been bunting. Maybe it just did not work out, or maybe they got more reached on errors, or were bunting on obvious sacrifice situations.
Some trivia before we getting to the give players with the biggest differences between the bunt and non-bunt wOBA. Brett Gardner had the biggest negative difference between when he bunted and did not this season — his wOBA was .239 worse when he bunted this season than when he did not. See the qualifications above, although now that Gardner is a home run hitter, maybe he should never bunt again (take it easy, that is a joke). Surprisingly, Dee Gordon, who actually led baseball in bunts for hits, did not make the top five, although he was seventh.
5. Denard Span (8347) .341 wOBA overall, .446 wOBA when bunting, .339 wOBA when not bunting, .107 difference.
Span turned 30 just before the start of the season. He has been a useful player for a while, but his first two years with the Twins, during which he put up a 122 and 118 wRC+, respectively, seem like a distant memory. Most of the seasons since then have been below average as his BABIP settled down a bit and most of his other peripherals declined as well.
It was a surprise, then, when in 2014 Span turned in his best season at the plate since 2009, hitting .302/.355/.416. Part of that was a small improvement in BABIP over past seasons, but he also cut his strikeout rate by about two percent — more balls in play usually means more hits.
Outside of a concussion-shortened 2011, bunting for hits has been a pretty big part of Span’s offensive game for a while. He managed a hit in half of his bunts this season, and he has actually done that and better before. He is so low on this list because he was actually a valuable as a hitter this year, overall.
4. Jean Segura (5933) .272 overall wOBA, .388 wOBA when bunting, .267 wOBA when not bunting, .121 difference.
Assuming that first- and second-half splits have predictive value is generally a mistake, but if you know anything about Jean Segura, you know that after a hot first half for the Brewers in 2013, the former Angels prospect he has been pretty much horrible ever since. He had a hot enough first half in 2013 to finish with a 105 wRC+ (.294/.329/.423) despite having just a 56 wRC+ in the second half. His 2014 was much closer to 2013’s second half, though — a disastrous 67 wRC+ (.246/.289.326). It is not as if Segura is known for his glove, either. You know a guy has had a big year at the plate when a Brewers fan can look at his 2015 Steamer projection for an 88 wRC+ and be rather excited.
Just from his offensive performance this year, one might glean that bunting relatively often would be a good idea for Segura. He has good speed, after all. Last year he had a hit rate over over 40 percent on bunts. He had pretty much the same rate this season, going 10 for 23 for a .388 wOBA when bunting. If he bunts too much, of course, teams are going to adjust, but even if he manages to improve all the way to a 90 wRC+, trying to bunt for a hit might be a good idea.
Speaking of Brewers, here is a surprise:
3 Carlos Gomez (4881) .368 wOBA, .401 wOBA when bunting, .364 wOBA sans bunts, .137 difference
Most of the players on this list make it in not just because they are good at bunting for hits, but because they are pretty poor hitters otherwise. Back in 2011 (82 wRC+) he was obviously a player who to try and bunt for hits, but in 2012 he made some adjustments that helped bring his innate power to the fore. Since then, his ability to hit the ball hard despite questionable plate discipline (although that has improved) had made him a very good hitter. Couple that with good baserunning and defense, and you have a dark horse NL MVP candidate.
Gomez not only has the highest overall wOBA (and non-bunt) wOBA of any hitter on this list, he also has the highest wOBA while bunting of any player on this list. On a more interesting note, while Gomez was a pretty decent at bunting for hits prior to 2013, his rate of bunting for hits has gone up over 50 percent the last two seasons. Now, this is at least in part due to random variation, but it might also be that since Gomez has learned to drive the ball, opposing fielders are having to play further back against him, in turn making the bunts a more effective weapon.
2. Erick Aybar (4082) .308 wOBA, .446 wOBA when bunting, .304 wOBA when not bunting, .142 difference
How much has the run environment changed over the last few years? In 2008, Erick Aybar had a .309 wOBA, good for a substantially below-average 86 wRC+. In 2014, Aybar had a .308 wOBA, good for a just-above-average 101 wRC+. Aybar is a decent defensive shortstop who puts the ball into play enough with just enough pop to be a league-average hitter once the Angels’ tough park is taken into account. That makes for an above-average overall player. Aybar also bunts for hits well enough to help himself out, especially this season.
1 Leonys Martin (11846) .306 wOBA, .446 wOBA when bunting, .297 wOBA sans bunts, .149 difference.
Martin was second in baseball to Dee Gordon in bunts for hits, but had a better percentage. He also hit worse than Gordon. On the year Martin hit .274/.325/.364 (89 wRC+). He will be 27 to start next season, so he is not a super-youngster by baseball standards. At this point Martin probably is who he is: a below-average hitter with poor plate discipline and below-average power who has enough blazing speed to make himself into an above average overall player due to his contributions in the field and on the basepaths. Some season he might hit the BABIP jackpot and suddenly people will think he is a star. Hey, it worked for Lorenzo Cain.
This is not to put Martin (or Cain!) down. It is simply an honest appraisal of his value. It is more difficult to measure defense than hitting and baserunning, but that does not mean it is not valuable. More to the point, bunting has clearly added to Martin’s value at the plate the last two seasons. He has bunted at least 30 times a season, and has managed an excellent rate of hits, aside from any situational context. It is difficult to say how teams are playing Martin — he has a bit of doubles and triples power. It is not clear that he should bunt any more than he is, but it would be hard to say he is bunting too much. To put a .446 wOBA into context: Josh Hamilton had a .445 wOBA during his insane 2010 season. Would you rather have that or a .300 wOBA peashooter?
Matt Klaassen reads and writes obituaries in the Greater Toronto Area. If you can't get enough of him, follow him on Twitter.
Am I the only one who has a hard time reading Matt’s articles due to the spelling and grammatical errors that seem to plague all of his posts? I don’t know why, but Matt’s posts seem to be the only ones that aren’t proofread before being published.
I second this motion. I stared at “the former Angels prospect he has been pretty much horrible ever since” for about a minute.
Also, .401 – .364 is emphatically NOT .137, so at least one of Gomez’s numbers is wrong.
You’re not alone. I counted about 6 mistakes in the first 5 paragraphs or so, as well as pretty questionable style throughout. The analysis is fine, but someone really needs to go over these articles before they’re published.
Yeah I rarely care about the grammar but there were so many errors I kept having to back up and re-read and in some parts I am not positive what was really meant (like last sentence of Segura paragraph). It is bad enough to be noticeable & annoying.
I was going to comment asking if this post was edited, but thanks to this thread going I can just add in an agreement to above posts.
The Gomez math problem is the biggest error, and could simply be a typo. Also, one of Segura’s slash lines is missing (the literal slash line, not the accompanying statistic).
Yeah, I quit trying to read it after 2 or 3 paragraphs.
Also, too much was eliminated from the analysis to make it worth anything (double plays, errors resulting in more than one base, third strike bunt fouls, batters getting two strikes on bunts and then doing something else, etc.)
Slowly the Tom Tango-inspired tyranny of analyzing specific tactical choices in baseball solely using average outcomes is beginning to break down.
That’s excellent news.
This isn’t a rebuttal of Tango, though. Tango (and company) critique the sacrifice bunt. And they’d also be among the first people to tell you that, for instance, it’s a great idea to bunt against the shift. Bunting for a single when you have a good opportunity? No one ever said that was a bad idea. (Except, I suppose, the traditionalists who think some guys exist only to get RBI. Which is the opposite of Tango.)
Tango’s win expectancies are all central tendencies and that’s a major problem.
Apples and oranges. He’d be the first to say that win expectancy is a blunt instrument, can and should be improved upon if you have more information.
I thought it was a nice article. Pretty informative.
I think the reason these guys are “better off” bunting is that they pick their spots. If they bunted all the time they would not get much of an edge.
That’s what I came here to say. If they bunted more often the defense would adjust but then they’d have more opportunities to push a single through a drawn in infield. So it’s not that they’d not get an edge, but they would have to be a good enough hitter to take advantage of a defense that tried to stop the bunt.
I love how the notion that no one should ever bunt has crumbled a bit. Sure, bunting is overrated and can be shown as such by looking at the percentage the runner in scoring position after a bunt, BUT this is for the whole league rounded up. I havent looked at the numbers by im sure it is probable that some teams that bunt have a lot higher a chance to drive a man in without bunting. Bunting is for that weak offense that needs a spark, the offense that has a hard time putting the bat on the ball especially when a pitcher buckles down. Whether it’s liked or not, bunting is a crucial part of the game.
firebird94,
The idea isn’t that guys shouldn’t try to bunt for base hits. The idea is that guys shouldn’t SACRIFICE Bunt. An even dumber idea is when there is a fast guy on who can actually steal a base/s and yet the manager makes the DUMB decision to SAC BUNT that guy instead of allowing him to steal or, at the very least, put a hit and run on.
This is a great example of how Tango’s win expectancies are misused.
Why exclude errors, though? It seems more or less agreed that ROE constitutes a skill, and the odds that you can force a rushed throw would almost certainly be part of the calculation in deciding to bunt.
And while I get the ease of including sacrifices as outs, that also seems to bias the whole exercise against guys who had the bat deliberately taken out of their hands by managers. (And who had no opportunity to fool opposing fielders, probably.)
When I look at Carlos gomez’s numbers, the wOBA difference looks like it is 0.037, not 0.137.
I’d love to see this analysis applied to Otis Nixon in 1991-1992. Drag bunting for hits was a major weapon of his for the Braves in those years. Famously, he made the last out of the 1992 World Series trying to lay down a drag bunt for a hit. But he often succeeded. He also didn’t have much offense swinging away, so I bet he would show up on a “better off bunting” list. (Although ironically, he had tied that same World Series game with two outs in the bottom of the 9th by swinging away and grounding a single into left.)