Pondering Another Big August Red Sox Trade
Three years ago, a struggling Red Sox team dumped a big part of their roster — and their payroll — on the Los Angeles Dodgers, shipping Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett to Los Angeles in exchange for a few prospects and a lot of financial relief. The deal freed up the team to reallocate a bunch of that money to free agents a few months later, and after hitting on signings like Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, and Koji Uehara, the team celebrated a World Series title in 2013.
Things have fallen apart again since, however, and last winter’s free agent spending spree looks like a total disaster at this point. Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval have combined for -1.8 WAR while pulling in $40 million between them, and there’s no way the team can go into 2016 with this same defensive alignment. Ramirez is clearly not an outfielder, and Sandoval has been a bit of disaster at third base this year as well, leading to speculation that one of the two may move to first base next year. And that probably is the path of least resistance, but as rumors percolated of Red Sox-Padres trade discussion before last week’s deadline, I started wondering if there wasn’t an August deal to be made that might actually make sense for both sides.
After all, reports from last winter suggest that Sandoval actually turned down a larger offer from the Padres to sign with the Red Sox. The Padres liked him enough to make him a $100 million offer, and they haven’t found a new long-term answer at 3B in the meantime. I’m sure they’re probably pretty happy to not be on the hook for the deal they offered him a year ago, but it does seem at least somewhat possible that they’d still be interested in having Sandoval on their team, especially if the Red Sox paid down some of his contract. And extra especially when you see that this winter’s free agent crop at third base is led by Juan Uribe, with David Freese and Alberto Callaspo the best alternative options for whatever team doesn’t sign Uribe.
If the Padres really are sticking to their planning in trying to win next year, then they’re going to have to take some shots on buy-low guys like Sandoval, because they don’t have the payroll space to sign a bunch of premium free agents, nor the trade chips to acquire low-salaried impact talent. If the goal is still to win with the core they put together last winter, they’re going to have to be on the winning side of a few upside plays, getting other teams to give them players with some upside in change-of-scenery deals.
As a switch-hitting 3B who still projects as a roughly average player even with his miserable 2015 now in his performance record, buying low on Sandoval isn’t the worst idea in the world. He’s certainly not worth the remaining $75 million he has left on his contract, but there is some potential for him to bounce back and live up to a chunk of that guarantee. So, the question from San Diego’s end may be how they get Sandoval cheap enough to take the plunge.
The easy way to offset most of Sandoval’s salary is to include James Shields in the trade. The Red Sox rotation continues to be a source of consternation, and it’s widely expected that the team will look to outside acquisitions to bolster their starting staff this winter. While Shields results this year haven’t been what the Padres were hoping for when they signed him, his BB/K/GB rates all remain solid, offering some hope for a bounce-back of his own. And because the Padres backloaded his contract, he has $65 million remaining on his deal over the next three years, putting his contract somewhat in line with Sandoval’s deal going forward.
The Padres certainly wouldn’t swap the two straight up, of course; Shields is better and costs less, so while Sandoval is well in the red relative to his deal, Shields is closer to break-even, maybe more like $10 million to the negative side of things. If the Red Sox wanted the Padres to think about a Shields/Sandoval swap, they’d have to sweeten the pot. But they have a lot of guys who could interest the Padres, especially if they’re looking to upgrade for 2016.
For instance, Jackie Bradley Jr would give the Padres a legitimate Major League center fielder, something that they just haven’t had this year; with both Justin Upton and Will Venable leaving as free agents, most likely, the team almost certainly will slide Wil Myers back to a corner spot where he belongs, opening up center field for a better defender. Bradley continues to hit well enough in Triple-A to suggest that he has enough offensive upside to be worth taking a shot on, and his defense is good enough that he doesn’t have to hit a ton in order to be valuable; even something like Juan Lagares‘ offensive levels (career 84 wRC+) would be good enough to let him hold down an everyday CF job.
Bradley himself doesn’t offset the value difference between Sandoval and Shields, but if Boston also included Deven Marrero — a similar kind of prospect, a glove-first SS who probably won’t hit but is probably better than anything San Diego has in the pipeline — you might start to get A.J. Preller to start thinking about the swap. Turning one pitcher into three position players who could potentially step right into the Padres line-up is the kind of deal they’ll need to make if they want to try and win next year. At the least, Bradley and Marrero would close the value gap enough to make the cash side of the equation pretty minimal; maybe the Red Sox kick in an extra $5 million or something, but it’s in the range of reasonable for both sides at that point.
Because minor leaguers can be traded in August without needing to clear waivers by using the player-to-be-named-later tactic, and Shields and Sandoval would both clear waivers without any problem, this is the kind of trade that teams can still make in August, and the lack of urgency might be why talks didn’t lead to a deal before the deadline. With players like this, the deadline doesn’t really apply.
Most likely, something like this won’t happen, as it’s tough for teams to sell low on guys who were touted as big acquisitions less than a year ago. This would take some pride-swallowing on both sides, and the Red Sox would have to be willing to move a couple of depth pieces simply for the right to move one negative-value asset for another one. But if they could ship Sandoval off to San Diego, they could move Ramirez back to third base — where he’s previously been below average but not the disaster he was in left field — and add a potentially solid starting pitcher to their rotation in the process.
But if we’re looking for an August trade beyond just Marlon Byrd or Chase Utley for some low level prospect in a salary dump, this is the kind of deal we could still see happen.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Dave, do you think it’s likely Shields clears waivers. Dodgers or Yankees?
It would have to be the Dodgers. Boston has a worse record than the Yankees, so Boston’s claim would take precedence.
The way Dave frames it, Boston would have to pass, or else SD just dumps him on the them and they’d have to pay down Sandoval fully to his current value.
So, you don’t want to risk Shields passing by the Sox and being claimed by another team. So the Sox claim him. If the Sox and Padres can’t agree to a deal, then the Sox are stuck with Shields’ full contract. What’s the problem with that from the Sox’ perspective?
And if the Padres aren’t happy with giving Shields away for free, they can revoke the waivers.
The problem is that as Dave puts it, Shields has negative $10 million in value that would offset some of the money Boston would have to give in order to rid themselves of Sandoval. Also, they’d be taking on a few million dollars for 2015 with absolutely no benefit, as they are not close to contending.
Boston would not claim Shields. If another team did, the Padres should let him go, and then if they want Sandoval (who would obviously pass through waivers) they can work out an independent deal, but Boston would be on the hook for more than Dave theorizes here.
I’ll admit I hadn’t looked at Shields’ contract before posting above, and I haven’t done any analysis on what his market value should be. But my point is this:
James Shields is a good starting pitcher, has some of the best peripheral numbers of his career this year, and he only has 3 more guaranteed years. If the numbers work out that his remaining contract *is* close to market value, a team like the Red Sox (who have deep pockets, a need for good starters, and an understanding of advanced stats) should be willing to take on his full contract.
And if his remaining contract is *not* close to market value, there’s no problem because then no team will claim him and he’ll pass through waivers.
Shields is worth more to a team in contention this year than he is to Boston. LA for instance.
Shields doesn’t have to be claimed – if he clears waivers then the trade can go through as imagined. And I’m with Dave in thinking the Yankees would steer clear. There are better pitchers available than Shields after the season – if they’re going to take on a multi-year deal for a started it would be a top tier one, not a declining Shields. I think that holds true for the Dodgers too. Neither team would really benefit from Shields for a few starts and then the playoffs.
The Boston debacle makes me wonder if Bill James offers any input on personnel decisions and if so, if they pay any attention to him. Obviously, he doesn’t reveal anything about his role with the Red Sox on his web site.
As far as I know, he’s always had a very behind-the-scenes role in their organization.
Either way, it looks like a front office shake-up is in the works in Boston. Lucchino is out and if memory serves, he was the entrenched ‘opposition’ to Epstein’s (and his protege, Cherington’s) organizational philosophy.
I have no idea if that’s a good or bad thing for Boston. They seem to have an effective player development system, but a horrible ability to evaluate major league talent.
Do they have a horrible ability to evaluate major league talent though? They hit as well any team in recent memory has in 2013, while being horrible the past two years. Does the extreme clustering of good and bad decisions signify anything of predictive value or importance? I think it’s tough to say either way. If anything, I think it highlights how you can look like a genius when a bunch of veterans have unpredictable career years (2013) or like an idiot when a bunch of veterans have unpredictable terrible years (2015).
Fair point. Horrible is probably an overstatement.
At least from a results standpoint, though, their success at evaluating major league talent pales in comparison to their success elsewhere. And at least in a couple cases (Crawford, Sandoval), the decisions were arguably poor from the start rather than a decent decision with a bad result.
they literally spent half a billion dollars this past offseason and have received substantially negative war from it.
horrible is far too kind a word for it.
Ben has handed out a crapload of contracts, and only a tiny few have worked out – the cheap first contracts to shane nap salty. other than those his contracts have all been ridiculous disasters.
Apparently everyone is horrible in evaluating all the players brought to Boston, not just the Red Sox front office. No one predicted that Hanley, Pablo and Porcillo would be 3 of the worst players in the majors this year.
People said that Panda had declined offensively in each of the past three seasons, and was a risk to completely abandon anything resembling conditioning the minute he got paid.
They also said it was insane to expect a man who had spent over 25 years playing exclusively on the left side of the infield to adjust to playing LF in front of the Green Monster.
They also pointed out that the Porcello extension was insane money for a guy who had only just begun to establish himself as a #3 starter.
there were a good amount of people trying to point out the emperor had no clothes i think.
half a billion handed out going well into luxury tax territory to build one of the oldest rosters in mlb with no projected impact players at the top of the roster this year and whose celebrated deep depth was a bunch of reclamation bounceback candidates or inexperienced rookies.
for all these reasons it looked like a roster that might be significantly overrated by projections.
There is a big difference between overrated and worst players in the league. Even if you didn’t believe the projections, we’re talking 3-4 WAR less each than projected.
@ Damaso
I’m not sure how you can LITERALLY SPEND any money in the off season, let alone half a billion, since I’m fairly sure no one actually gets paid in December. They LITERALLY COMMITTED to spending just shy of $300 Million over the next 3-5 seasons.
source: http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/
And how is a payroll of $175,689,789 DEEP into luxury tax?
source: http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/
Ramirez: $108.0m, -0.9war
Sandoval: $95.0m, -0.9war
Porcello: $95.0m, 0.2war
Castillo: $72.5m, -0.2war
Moncada: $63.0m, 0.0war
Craig: $26.5m, -0.6war
Miley: $19.5m, 1.2war
Uehara: $18.0m, 1.3war
Masterson: $9.5m, 0.0war
Breslow: $2.0m, -0.6war
Nava: $2.0m, -0.3war
Ogando: $1.5m, -0.9war
Total: $512.5m, -1.8war
and remember, year 1 is supposed to be the value year of these contracts.
Damaso, that’s not a list of contracts signed in the offseason.
You’re including Moncada (a minor league prospect), Castillo (a guy who signed in mid-2014), Craig (a guy who was traded for mid-2014), Miley (an offseason trade), and Nava (an arbitration guy whose salary you have wrong).
Isn’t it simply they miscalculated that their offense would outscore the RA’d by the degraded pitching because they couldn’t get a top tier pitcher?
the decreased defense because of Panda/HanRam surely didn’t help but is probably less than the loss of high quality starter innings.
That’s a big part of this year’s problem, sure, but this isn’t the first year they’ve had problems with free agent misses. And it hasn’t been all pitching-related in the past.
The Dombrowski resignation made this conversation very interesting. With Lucchino out, I can imagine Boston making a run at him.
Yes, James has input. Substantial.
Correct.
Bill has admitted to friends that he was a big proponent of moving Hanley to OF. Whoops.
can’t fault him. shortstop’s can generally play anywhere. but aging poor defensive shortstop probably wasn’t a good idea.
would love to take a gander at the history of vet career SS transitioning to the OF.
@ Damaso…. Robin Yount did pretty well
Theres also very little evidence Bill knows what he’s doing anymore. His time has long passed him by. Dave is the new Bill James in the community, and should be getting job offers if he hasn’t already.
Herp derp win shares
Herp derp WAR is useless
Any ml ss who cannot learn lf is a head case. Which is the entire point.
And Dave, like everyone else predicted that Hanley and Pablo would be ok to decent players for the Red Sox.
Some kind of swap with Sandoval and Shields at the center seemed to make some sense at the deadline when the Padres, Cubs, and Sox were all rumored to be working on something. You do wonder if this conversation can be reignited in August or the offseason.
I wouldn’t want Sandoval if I were San Diego, though. I think the appeal of moving Sheilds is having that money to spend – and Sandoval’s not a sexy way to spend it.
That singing never made sense to me for Boston – especially after inking Hanley.
I believe there was going to be a lot of bad contracts moving if that 3 way was real. Castro, gyorko, shields, sandoval.
Except as Dave mentioned it could never just be Sandoval for Shields, they would have to throw in a couple extras. Personally, I’d rather the Sox just eat Sandoval’s dead money than give up Bradley and Marrero just so they could bring in another bad pitcher.
The Padres should not trade Shields for Sandoval to play 3rd base. The Padres already have enough defensive problems.
Yeah, the projections really don’t account for the fact that Sandoval’s gained a shit ton of weight and stopped trying now that he’s gotten paid.
How could he make it so painfully obvious he was going to do this and still get paid?
What is shocking to me is that this doesn’t happen more often. What exactly is he playing for at this point? He’s been an All-star, won a few World Series and has made serious money, with $10s of millions more to be made, guaranteed. As a nonHoF caliber talent, where is the motivation? To achieve the success that he already has in the past? That isn’t very inspiring, and yet this rarely happens. That is the surprising part.
It doesn’t happen more often because professional athletes are maniacally competitive human beings.
And really? Most people have a good deal of pride.
And must people care about the people they work with and don’t want to let them down.
It’s a very far person who is that selfish.
But it isn’t any more selfish than the teams treat these players to begin with. He earned this money, just earlier in his career when he was vastly underpaid, like all big free agents. And what about a guy like Stanton, whose team has made it abundantly clear that they aren’t really going to try? All he has to do is figure his employers model fine behavior, so why shouldn’t he also take all the money, results be damned?
And I am not saying all players would do this, but go out and interact with the public, something like 4 or 5% seem very selfish, while something like 20-30% are more “casually” selfish. Think about your coworkers who show up and do mediocre work, just kind of barely putting in the effort to pull their own weight. Among professional athletes those kinds of people hardly exist it seems.
MLB players are a self-selecting group of insanely driven people, not a random cross-section of the population who happen to be athletic.
Yeah but yount was still a pretty darn good defender. Good enough that he was moved to CF. Imagine the reaction if they had proposed moving hanley to center.
It’s a similar situation but Ramirez had always been somewhere between below average and awful at every position where yount wasn’t.
Also fair or not there have always been questions about Ramirez and whether he was just indifferent to putting in the effort required to max out his physical gifts defensively.
Biggio is another middle infielder who moved to the outfield well into his career.
It’s fangraphs and we try not to talk about this but i think it’s fair to question his attitude and work ethic and if he was ever likely to make the effort needed.
Newspaper reports at the time that Yount was moved to the outfield indicate that the Brewers did so to reduce the impact on his shoulder post-surgery. They had a high opinion of his defensive ability, for good reason, and thought he could handle any position.
Why did the Red Sox put HanRam in left?
I highly doubt shields would clear waivers, he hasn’t pitched terribly despite his HR/FB rate being through the roof like every other Padres pitcher.
IF, and that’s a gigantic if, I’m the yankees or jays I would immediately snag him off waivers. His salary isn’t significantly difference from his performance, you keep him from going to the sox, and he would help with the playoff push.
The Red Sox have a higher waiver priority than the Yankees or Blue Jays by virtue of record. Neither team could block the Red Sox from acquiring him.
How would that work though? If the Red Sox claimed him on waivers their claim would take priority since they have the worst record, however they would not be able to trade for him then, right? They would just have to take on the contract. I don’t think that solves the Red Sox problems.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/how-august-trades-work.html
IIRC, a team can negotiate a trade from a waiver claim.
Once a claim has been made, one of three things can happen:
1) The Pads and the claimant could work out a trade
2) The Pads could dump the player on the claimant for nothing but contract relief
3) The Pads could withdraw the player and keep him
In any case, only the claimant can do any sort of deal for the claimed player. The player would not be able to go through waivers a second time if nothing could be worked out wit the original claimant.
When a team claims a player off waivers – in this example, Shields – then that team has a limited time to make a trade or agreement for that player. If the Red Sox claimed him, it doesn’t mean they get him, they only get him if they can work out a deal with San Diego. This article is about claiming him and then sending Pablo + JBJ + Marrero + Cash for him, if he clears NL Waivers. NL teams get first priority, then the last place in the AL, Red Sox are next in line. This is a well-thought out article and I think the above described scenario is a win/win. JBJ is a gold-glove outfielder who has torn up AAA with his bat, just not yet in MLB. Marrero is a very good fielding SS at AAA who can hit some, but he is blocked by Xander. Sandoval is 28 and can still bounce back. Shields will be 34 in December, past his prime, so if San Diego got this deal – they should take it in a heartbeat.
Cheers all.
Yeah, this would be a hell of a deal for SD, not sure why the Sox would want to give up JBJ and Marrero just to swap Pablo for Shields, that seems like a loss all the way around.
The issue is that JBJ and Marrero can’t hit, and that Pablo’s a far worse bet to bounce back than Shields…because Shields is actually trying.
they said that about jose iglesias too though lester.
The thing is, Iglesias is currently the same age as Bradley, and only 7 months older than Marrero.
He doesn’t work at all as a comparison.
That’s funny you say that coollester because i was looking at his bref page just recently and did a double take at his age. He was such a high profile defector that we’ve been talking about him for ages. Easy to forget how young he is.
For us Yankee fans Sanchez is in a similar situation. Hard to believe he’s still only 22
very good point. completely forgot about waiver priority. Still don’t think it’s realistic as both teams are out of the playoffs, so there is no reason to take the risk of going through waivers, if they can just wait til the off-season.
Except the fact that pitchers get hurt very often and older pitchers even more so. Why wait another 10 starts if you can off load him now before his contract actually starts getting really expensive.
Shields was available to sign with any team as recently as this winter for this exact contract, minus the games played this season, otherwise known as the value stage for a pitcher of his age/experience. I wouldn’t be shocked if a team claimed Shields, but I’d definitely be surprised.
Well, you are ignoring a lot. You are right that of course the deal gets less valuable as time goes on (in most cases). But there are two things you are ignoring. The first is that the most valuable part of the contract is the end of this year, specifically if he can help you in the postseason. Also, teams know where they are for this season. And also the acquiring team did not pay for the first 4-5 months. I’m not sure, when just looking at 2015, there is not more surplus expected value for a team getting him now than for the team that got him at the beginning of the year.
no because his deal is backloaded. so this season was way the most valuable part.
Looks like someone needs to find a new name
If Shields is waived, I believe who ever puts in a claim, gets him. From SD’s standpoint, they got the publicity of signing Shields, got the promise of putting a playoff team on the field, and got ticket sales boost for the entire season. Yet, only have to pay a little over half a years salary for it.
It would be a no-brainer, pay only 7mil (approx) for 2/3rds of this season, let him walk and free up 65mil.
I’m not sure why this would happen in August?
Also, if I’m SD I look to put Shields on waivers and honestly someone might claim him. There have been worse claims before.
I remember this happened with Randy Myers, though I forget whether the Padres dumped him or got stuck with him.
The Braves ended up with him.
The Padres got stuck with him and he and his contract were one of the reasons the Padres claimed they had to break up the 1998 World Series team.
And yeah I agree this doesn’t need to happen in August. The offseason would be just fine.
We’re getting tired of your stupid senseless posts. Just go away to Fox Sports or something.
It would happen now because the Padres are in a “win-now” mode and this would improve the team?
I’m not totally sure that’s true though – isn’t trading Shields for Sandoval and Bradley just pushing value around? Whatever they’d gain from putting Bradley in CF and Sandoval at 3B would be countered by the downgrade from Shields to Despaigne (or whoever).
You can reallocate some money to a free agent pitcher looking for a rebound year. And there is always chris young.
I was referring to this season. Since the Padres didn’t trade any of their free agents to be they are apparently trying for the playoffs this season.
Also…I’m not sure how much they’d gain from putting Sandoval at 3B.
The Shields for Sandoval/JBJ/Marrero framework makes sense for front offices that believe in the value of defense. But hasn’t Preller demonstrated by now that he’s not interested in defense-first guys?
In terms of pride-swallowing, simply admitting that JBJ and Marrero are MLB-caliber players would be quite the development for the San Diego front office.
But have JBJ and Marrero even proven to be MLB-caliber players?
JBJ is a 25 year old with a 48 wRC+ and a career -0.2 WAR in 583 MLB PA.
Deven Marrero is a 24 year old with a 73 wRC+ in 494 AAA PA.
Considering Marrero anything more than a utility IF, and Bradley anything other than a defensive replacement (not even a 4th OF), seems insanely optimistic.
Considering the number of bad deals Cherrington has made I am curious if ownership put him on a short leash leading up to the deadline. If he will be gone come October Henry and Co. probably didn’t want him dealing for a new GM.
I understand the interest in Shields but the rebuild is for 2-3 years. Shields is 33 years old and will be 36-37 when the Sox are competing again. Plus, to make the deal they need to give up more young “talent” (jbj probably not as high up as he once was). If they are going to rebuild then rebuild. Why swap aging talent that won’t help you when you are ready to compete again?
There is no such thing as a 2-3 year rebuild for a team with Boston’s resources. At the most they punt on 2016.
True. And if they simply dump some of the non-productive glut of position players and give guys like JBJ and/or Castillo a chance to become ok major leaguers, they have some chips to trade to upgrade their pitching or other areas.
Just have to be much, much smarter on the FA acquisition front. Otherwise, those extra resources will put Boston into a tailspin like this year.
Last place 3 of the last 4 years with those resources. They let Theo walk in favor of Lucchino. Ownership wouldn’t let him build the way he wanted. Four years later the Cubs have some of the best young talent in the league and are a contender. The tune may be changing in Boston.
The Cubs rebuilt and they have the same resources as the Red Sox… of course the Red Sox only have to rebuild their roster while the Cubs rebuilt their entire organization… every little part of it.
Except the Cubs had considerably better draft slots for several years.
2011:
Red Sox 19th Cubs 9th
2012:
Red Sox 24th Cubs 6th
2013:
Red Sox 7th Cubs 2nd
2014:
Red Sox 26th Cubs 4th
The Red Sox have run a substantially higher payroll than the Cubs every season since 2000, the farthest back it is listed on Cots.
They also have a few high value MLB pieces and several good prospects that are not far from MLB ready.
How about Hanley, Sandoval, Swihart, Marrero and Sean Coyle (with the Sox paying all of Hanley and Sandoval’s remaining salary) to the DBacks for Goldschmidt and Aaron Hill?
I mean, if Arizona wants to jump quickly back into contention, this gives them some talent and moves Hill’s salary off the books. The Red Sox can undo the mess they made.
Ah, the rare “nobody wins” trade. Unorthodox.
Two teams with a mess on their hands = an opportunity to gamble on moving the mess.
Not sure how much different this is than what Dave proposed involving the Padres.
It’s different in that what Dave’s proposing doesn’t involve giving up one of 5 most valuable properties in baseball for old&busted HRam/Panda and some prospect magic beans.
Trading one of the very best hitters in the game in order to play Hanley Ramirez in the outfield isn’t a gamble, it’s a felonious offense.
If the Snakes wanted to move Goldy, I’m thinking they would have 29 offers to choose from and this would not be the best.
True. Just being a hopeful Red Sox fan more than anything lol.
And I would hope they wouldn’t trade low on Hanley or Panda. (I hope they don’t keep getting worse….)
that was very clear
It may very well be the worst.
Hahahahaha
Moving Hanley Ramirez from LF to 3B or 1B has to be a priority for the Red Sox.
He’s awful: what made Cherington think that HanRam, always defensively indifferent, could play that tricky corner where the foul line is so close to the wall, or the Green Monster? SMH. I thought watching Manny in LF was fun for an Orioles fan; but watching HanRam is like watching a train wreck. You’re afraid to look, but your attraction to the macabre keeps you looking.
What’s the story on Ortiz? Why can’t the Red Sox just make Sandoval the DH?
Ortiz is actually starting to hit again, he’s sitting at a 115 wRC+. I couldn’t agree more that the Hanley OF experiment needs to end. It seems like most of their issues – pitching notwithstanding – could be solved by getting rid of Sandoval.
Red Sox have a team option for ’16-’17. I’d imagine they walk from that and hope he retires. Let Ramirez split time at 1st and DH.
Walking from Ortiz and not resigning Napoli gives them $32M in cap space for next year
not cap space but $32M free’d up salary
The option for 2016 vests at 425 PA this season, so all he needs is another 18 PA. The 2017 option also vests at 425 PA in 2016.
He’s hit well (152 wRC+) vs RHP this year, but has been awful (28 wRC+) vs LHP.
I’d put Hanley at third and Sandoval at first.
Sandoval’s fat and apathetic at this point. Hanley’s just apathetic.
Lester, I’m not saying that’s a bad suggestion, but what’s ironic about it is that Sandoval is actually projected to be a worse hitter than Napoli (.337 wOBA vs .332 wOBA).
Anyone can slump over the course of 350 PA’s, but so much of Sandoval’s value is tied up in his ability to play 3B.
I mean next season, haha.
Napoli might be better, but he won’t be enough better to justify shilling out the additional money when they already have Sandoval, especially considering the value of putting Hanley back in the infield.
One of the reasons I criticized the Sandoval signing from jump is that he’s only actually valuable because he was a solid-average defensive 3B in addition to being an above average hitter, and he was an almost lock to move to 1B in the near future.
I think the thought was “if Manny Ramirez could get by, anyone can”.
Hanley has set a new bar for how bad someone can be at defense.
I find it hard to believe that shields would clear waivers, you don’t think a contending team would take on that deal?
Is JBJ that much better than Travis Jankowski?
Hasn’t Sandoval given up switch hitting?
He’s pretty much given up hitting entirely.
Oops, he heard you and hit a 440 foot bomb last night.
Funny comment, but he actually has a 115 wRC+ vs righties this year. The bulk of his struggles have come against LHP’s (regardless of which side of the plate he’s hitting from)
This article is ridiculous. The Padres have a solid 3rd basement in Yangervis Solarte. He happens to have filled in for an injury Yonder Alonzo, but he’s still thee 3rd baseman. This article is about fixing the Red Sox, who most of us like seeing in last place.
My mom has a solid 3rd basement. I never, ever have to leave here for anything!
Meh. More like 3rd division starter.
…and yet he’s still been significantly better than Pablo Sandoval on the season, and is making the league minimum.
And I’d call him more a second-division starter, haha.
Biased people tend to see bias in others everywhere they go.
lne of the most frustrating things about the boston hype train the past few years (which Dave has been a frontseat member of) is the endless insistence that bad AAA players in their mid 20s like marrero (or cecchini and ranaudo and barnes and webster) have any value.
they don’t.
It’s a good overall point. But I hope you’re not putting Bradley in that group. He’s got a .281/.365/.451/.816 line in his AAA career (761 PA’s), and is hitting .305/.382/.472/.853 this year (318 PA’s). He’s also one of the very best CF’s in baseball. Despite his age and struggles at the MLB level, I still think he’ll have a very good career.
My mom has a solid 3rd basement. I never, ever have to leave here for anything!
Interesting, two identical comments, one with a +24 and one with a -5. We should send Carson to investigate.
I noticed that, too. Maybe the downvotes are for repeating the comment and not linking it to the comment it was responding to?
It’s very clear he accidentally posted not as a reply, saw that he did that, and then posted again where the comment should have been.
Dave, wouldn’t Bradley have to clear waivers to be traded in August, since he’s on the 40 man?
Of course he would. And he would never clear them, something that should have been obvious to Dave.
I don’t think this trade happens, but I am curious if the rules allow this: Include a ‘player to be named later’, who is in reality an specific agreed upon player who is moved in the off-season to avoid the waiver problem?
If they sent him down to AAA, he could be a PTBNL.
I’d be very wary of trading for Sandoval – in fact even in this trade I would think the Red Sox would have to include a sizable chunk of money to get it done. Sandoval has been awful this year, the worst player in the AL. And looking over the WAR leaderboards over the past 5 years it’s extremely rare for players to put up a season worth -1.0 WAR or worse and become a useful player again. The only two I saw were Melky Cabrera and Alex Rios. You could hope that Sandoval is having a Cabrera like season as they both moved to different leagues, didn’t hit at all, and their defense took a nosedive. That doesn’t seem like something I’d want to lay my hopes on though.
You also have to consider that Melky was so shitty because he got fat and depressed after the Yanks traded him…and that his motivating factor for getting fit again was getting paid.
Sandoval’s already gotten paid.
If the Sox can get such a deal they should gobble it up. I can’t see how the Padres could want Sandoval though. Solarte is a league average hitter, and Sandoval can’t really be expected to be more than at ~110 wRC+ hitter. Where is the upside for all that expenditure?
What would the effect (if any) of trading Pablo/Shields have on each team’s ability to sign FA in the future? You say that Pablo was willing to turn down more money from SD to go to Boston. By having the Red Sox trade him to SD, he has essentially lost out on both more money and the ability to choose where he would like to play. That might play into the decision of future FAs when considering signing with the Sox, no? The same could be said of Shields.
And even with how terrible Pablo has been, I’m not sure the Red Sox would be happier with Shields. They really don’t like paying pitchers over 30 lots of money, so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they would rather take their chance on Pablo reverting to his career average going forward than pay Shields 20 mil/year for his age 34-36 seasons. What is more likely to happen, Shields gets injured, or Pablo continues to play at this abysmal level?
As for Hanley, they signed him for his bat, specifically to take over DH when Ortiz retires. He is an elite RH power hitter, who they were able to obtain at a reasonable price because of his injury history. It was a very real possibility that Ortiz would fall off of a cliff this year. For a 39 year old slugger, that could come at any moment. If that were to happen, Hanley would immediately step in. LF was always just a place for Hanley to occupy until Ortiz retires.
Pablo reverting to his career average (which he hasn’t since 2012) would also require his fielding at 3B to do so at the same time, he’d be something like the 16th best hitter at first base with his 119 WRC+, which is not all that great from a first baseman.
Hey maybe he can be a catcher again!
The main reason for this trade not to happen in August is that there is no compelling reason for either team to not wait until the offseason. When the Red Sox did the Crawford/Beckett/Gonzalez trade, the Dodgers had a reasonable shot at the playoffs that year, and Gonzalez/Beckett provided immediate help. The Padres don’t have a reasonable shot at the playoffs this season. Neither do the Red Sox. So the path of least resistance for both teams is to wait until the year is done and they can trade for any players, not just ones that will clear waivers.
Dude. We totes do have reasonable shot at the playoffs, now that I’ve traded for Marc Rzepczynski.
Eh, if Kemp keeps his second half production up, like he did last year, they actually have a shot at sneaking into the Wild Card game.
If everyone in front of the Padres plays .450 baseball the rest of the season (like a 90 loss team), then the Padres would have to play .571 baseball (like a 93 win team) the rest of the year.
No, they do not have a shot. I’m wondering if this is the worst season a GM has ever had. The short and long term damage.
No, it’s not the worst season a GM has ever had.
It’s nowhere close to the worst season a GM has ever had.
You’re welcome.
This statement is so conclusory that I am physically compelled to agree with it.
With all the money the Red Sox have, I don’t understand why they just don’t release Pablo and Hanley and replace them with anyone making the MLB minimum. Worst case, they’d be paying $41 million and change instead of $40 million. That extra $1 million plus is nothing to them, and the two replacement level players wouldn’t be any worse that P & H. In fact, Travis Shaw has looked really good playing 3B in Pablo’s absence. Not rated as much of a prospect, but my eyes tell me he’s got a clue out there. Maybe he’s one of those late bloomers. Remember, this is the organization that kept Wade Boggs in the minors till he was 25.
Because they’ll also owe them 40 million for the next 5 years, if they release them now.
The problem is, ‘replacement player’ is kind of a misnomer I think, because there is always going to be some uncertainty when it comes to forecasting player production. There is no guaranteed replacement level player, it is a theoretical, imaginary player used to compare production to for evaluation. If they are already paying his salary, what player would they be able to get who 1. is paid the major league minimum and 2. projects to be a better player than Pablo?
Shaw has right around a career 100 wRC+ at AAA. No matter how bad Pablo has been this year, you can not have any confidence in projecting Shaw to be better than Pablo, who has a career 119 wRC+ at the major league level in a far larger sample size.
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Keeping Boggs in the minors for so long was idiotic. But that was over 30 years ago. And Boggs was in fact not yet 24 when he debuted in 1982.
Does Boston really need to do this trade to improve? First, the Ramirez-to-OF experiment can end this offseason as Napoli becomes a free agent. Sandoval goes to 1b and Ramirez goes to 3rd. If they trade Sandoval, they then have to find a 1b. Then, with all the free agent pitchers on the market this offseason, the Sox can sign someone better than Shields. Their financial resources mean they don’t have to sell low on Sandoval & give away 2 pretty good prospects in order to save some money.
To me, their best option is to hope for turnarounds from Sandoval and Ramirez in the offseason and add some free agent pitching.
I don’t think they have a problem in Hanley at all, really. Get him back to 3B and he’s valuable.
They have a problem in Sandoval. He’s likely useless at 1B as well. The question is when and how to get rid of him, not if.
Sandoval is surely better than he’s played this year. He can’t really be this bad.
He could be 2 WAR better and still be worth only 1 WAR. That’s still pretty awful.
Been saying this for a while. At a minimum Boston needs to dump clubhouse cancers Sandoval and Hanley, to give their young talent room to develop. http://twtwsports.blogspot.com/2015/07/twtws-second-half-al-east-predictions.html
Instead of prospects what if they took on Melvin Upton? (or at least a portion of that contract).
The Sox have cash to spend. But they should hang onto Marrero and JBJ to make a deal for a SP.
Ironically Ross should be the #1 guy, Carlos Carrasco the other. Not sure I would move either if I was those teams, but the rumors are both were being shopped or I wouldn’t even bring them up.
Melvin Upton/Ross for Marrero/JBJ/Sandoval/cash/slot money?
Someone want to explain to me how JBJ & Marrero developed anything resembling value? I mean, how does one call JBJ a “legitimate” CF’er while keeping a straight face?
As for JBJ, because he was worth half a win in just over 400 PAs as a 24-year-old while batting .198. It’s not hard to see that with a bit more offensive production, he could be a 3-win player.
By “a bit more offensive production” do you mean “If he literally doubles his career wRC+ to date”?
80 wrc and he has solid value for a few years, he has only ran a 263 babip and with his plus speed i can only imagine that goes up. Granted betts in center negates value.
An 80 wRC+ and he’s a mediocre 4th OF.
An 80 wRC+ and he is in the same tier as starters Juan Lagares, Billy Hamilton, and Kevin Kiermaier.
Juan Lagares is a much better defender than Bradley, and has only been an effective starter with a 100 wRC+.
Billy Hamilton is younger, and a much better defender than Bradley, and was effective with an 80 wRC+ because he’s a generational talent on the basepaths.
Kiermaier is a better defender than Bradley, and has a career wRC+ of 103, so I have no idea what the fuck you’re talking about there.
What’s the estimate on what Hanley’s WAR would be this year if he were playing third base instead of left field? Would his contract look remotely okay in that case?
He would likely be worth around +0.7 WAR this season rather than his current -0.8 WAR if he were a third baseman. Similar to his 2011 season with Miami, as he’s hit league average.
Moving forward, one might project him to hit more closely to 20% better than league average. Combine that with slightly below average yet servicable third base defense and he’s worth about 2.5 / 3 WAR a season, roughly the value of which he’s getting paid.
Sox just got bailed out of their mistakes by LA, and all they did was get themselves right back into the same mess. Can’t see SD doing this.
They’re on their way to their 3rd last place finish in 4 years, which mixed in a fluke WS.
They get too much credit, it’s a bad team and a bad organization.
Great analysis.
I wonder if there’s any precedence for what the Red Sox have done. They dumped contracts for salary relief in 2012 and then turned around and won the World Series the next year (although it’s hard to be sure that the trade really was the catalyst for that). And then just two years later they are in the same mess as before but with worse players. Even if they are able to dump Sandoval and Porcello I don’t think I’d feel too confident in their ability to spend money on replacements.
The Joke is that Boston fans think that to dump Sandavol, who has 2 Dozen Krispy Kremes smeared on his body, unto the Padres and offer them a CF to get James Shields. This is a joke.
Sandoval plus CF is for the long contract of the Padres 2b. That is it. Boston has signed two of the great disappointing free agents.
Hot take here.
can a team move a player off the 40 man roster and trade him after aug 1 without having to pass him through waivers?
example A: padres demote shields to AA (and he accepts the assignment knowing its a procedural move to facilitate a trade), pads correspondingly remove him from their 40 man roster, and then trade him to the Cubs for (whatever is fair)… is that doable?
example B: padres put shields on the 60 day DL then trade him to the Cubs (for whatever is fair); can the Cubs just assign him to their 25 man roster straight away upon acquiring him?
Players going off the 40 man rosters can be claimed by any team anyway, and that’s irrevocable waivers.
Complete non-starter. Apologies if this has been pointed out, but Shields in Fenway might be the single worst player / ballpark fit in MLB. Lots of fly balls to left and center, where Fenway has an astronomic, hard-to-fathom park factor.
Now, that assertion is based entirely on stuff Blengino has posted right here, but it’s also true that Shields has held Red Sox hitters to .230 / .305 / .359 in 361 PA in his home ball parks while allowing .282 / .339 / .468 in 324 PA in Fenway.
Given any kind of Porcello comeback, it’s hard to see him even cracking he Sox rotation.
Now, if you can find a third team …
That’s what I was thinking. As badly as Sandoval has played and as much as I’d like the Red Sox to dump him, Shields in Fenway Park would be a sub-replacement level pitcher, and the Red Sox already have enough of those without paying an eight-figure salary for another one.
The Red Sox would be more likely to pursue some kind of deal that sent Sandoval and several prospects to San Diego for Tyson Ross and either Gyorko’s or Melvin Upton’s bad contract.
BTW, having watched Sandoval all year, I completely concur with the projections that have him at league-average next year. For instance, his defensive range sees unchanged; most of his huge negative defensive value was accrued early in the season by failing to make fairly routine plays with jaw-dropping frequency. That sort of bad play has already proven to have its expected zero predictive value. And I believe the Sox targeted him because they thought his bat would fit especially well in Fenway; I’m sure that analysis was sound, and I doubt it’s reflected in projections, so I actually think he can be a 2.5 WAR player next year.
In which case, the Sox should keep him for a year and then dump him for, say, 75 cents on the dollar rather than the much steeper discount they’d have to take this winter.
It absolutely was reflected in the projections. They all expected him to have his best power year since 2011, despite his ISO having declined in each of the three prior seasons.
Pablo has 0 trade value at this point. Red Sox has to hope he loses some weight otherwise all they can do is cut him or trade him for almost nothing and eat like 80% of his salary. Same with Porcello, just have to hope he is better next year or face the same choices.
Hanley has some trade value offensively, to a team looking for a 3Bman or DH. Red Sox would still have to eat salary. I expect Hanley goes this offseason or at the deadline next year. Have to hope his shoulder recovers enough for his power to come back and restore his trade value first
Red Sox then have an OF of Castillo, Bradley, Betts. They have to hope Bradley eventually puts it together. He does not have to hit much as he has a great glove.
Most immediate need for the Red Sox is 1B and pitching (starting and bullpen). Not much on the FA market for 1B so they have to deal. Need to go after a guy like Cueto to go along with Owens, Eduardo and Porcello and a middle of the rotation guy. Miley has to be traded since they cant have 3 LHP’ers in the rotation at that park, especially since the AL has few dominant LHB’ers.
Not sure any of these deals should come in August since most of the guys they need to cut bait with, except Napoli perhaps (as a platoon bat), have little value now
I think they shift Panda to first and Hanley to third, and hope that fixes their bats (and Hanley’s defense, haha).
If/when that still doesn’t work, they’ll try to press ctrl-alt-del next trade deadline.
Do not see the point of this trade from the Padres point of view. You put a credible defense behind Shields and he becomes a much better pitcher. Solarte is debatably worse than Sandoval at this point and much cheaper. Sure Panda could bounce back but I would not make that bet for the difference in salary. The defensive chips of bradley and marrero are nice, but likely only backups long term. Seems pointless from a Padres Perspective.
I say they go and put the Walls back to the old levels and then resign both uptons. Then get Kemp the heck out of the field.
The only thing that’s going to fix Panda is getting serious about his conditioning and dropping weight. Until that happens his subpar play will continue (and most likely get worse).
Why any team (including the Padres) offered a bad bodied player with a history of weight issues a multi-year contract without any sort of weight clause is mind boggling. The Giants reportedly wanted a weight clause in their offer, Pablo acted insulted and bailed. That told us all we needed to know about how committed (or not) to staying in shape.
No agent is going to let his player sign a deal with a weight clause in it when he can get them a fully guaranteed deal somewhere else. That strategy doesn’t work. It was tried in the 1970s and was unsuccessful.