Pre-Spring Divisional Outlook: NL West

Throughout the early stages of the calendar year, I’ve been taking a pre-spring training look at each of the six MLB divisions from a slightly different perspective. Utilizing batted ball data, we’re going back over the 2014 season, attempting to calculate each club’s true talent level. Making adjustments for teams’ offensive and defensive K and BB rates and team defense, each team’s true talent 2014 won-lost record is calculated. Then, we’ll take a look at the current Steamer projections for 2015, evaluate key player comings and goings, and determine whether clubs are constructed to be able to handle the inevitable pitfalls along the way that could render such projections irrelevant. The next to last installment of this series features the NL West.

There was an unusually high amount of roster turnover throughout the major leagues this offseason, and despite the relatively quiet offseasons experienced by the Giants and Rockies, the hijinks of the division’s other three inhabitants more than compensated to the point that the NL West just might have been the busiest division. The Padres are basically a new team, the Diamondbacks have essentially melted down their squad to Paul Goldschmidt and a few of his closest friends as they begin a total rebuild, and the Dodgers have transformed themselves into a different type of contender.

Before we dive into this year, let’s take a look back at 2014. Unlike last week’s review of the AL East, there aren’t massive surprises in our analysis of the true 2014 talent level of these five clubs. In most cases, these clubs are who we thought they were, with only a slight disagreement regarding the identity of the 3rd and 4th best clubs in the division last year.

First, let’s start it off with a table that will serve as the backbone of our analysis:

2014	BIP B OBP	BIP B SLG	BIP P OBP	BIP P SLG	BAT K %	BAT BB %	PIT K %	PIT BB %	DEF MULT
LAD	0.327	0.502	0.313	0.472	20.0%	8.3%	22.6%	7.1%	97.2
SF	0.322	0.524	0.317	0.496	20.5%	7.0%	20.4%	6.5%	95.7
SD	0.309	0.461	0.324	0.503	21.9%	7.9%	21.4%	7.7%	100.6
COL	0.327	0.506	0.327	0.509	20.8%	6.4%	17.2%	8.5%	95.5
AZ	0.312	0.474	0.333	0.528	19.1%	6.5%	20.7%	7.6%	102.2
MLB AVG	0.318	0.489	0.318	0.489	20.4%	7.6%	20.4%	7.6%	100.0

The first four columns indicate the resulting team AVG and SLG on all of each club’s balls in play (BIP) hit and allowed if they were hit in a neutral environment. The major league average AVG and SLG on all BIP in 2014 were .318 and .489, respectively. Clubs performing above that level offensively and yielding production below that level defensively were above average performers. The next four columns list each club’s offensive and defensive K and BB rates. The MLB averages in those categories were 20.4% and 7.6%, respectively, in 2014.

The last column represents each club’s Defensive Multiplier. Again utilizing granular batted ball data, I have established a method to evaluate team defense, from a big-picture macro perspective, rather than the play-by-play micro perspective that methods such as DRS and UZR utilize. Simply compare each team’s offensive and defensive actual and projected AVG and SLG – what each team “should” have hit/allowed based on the speed/exit angle mix of all balls in play (excluding home runs), and convert those actual and projected events to run values. You are basically comparing each team’s defense to that of their opponents over 162 games. If a team’s defense was exactly as good as their opponents’ over 162 games, their team Defensive Multiplier would be 100. Better than average defenses have scores under 100, below average team defenses have scores over 100.

Next, let’s convert all of the data in the first table into run values, and then do same Pythagorean magic, and come up with a series of projected win-loss records. 1) On only each club’s BIP hit/allowed, 2) adjusted for K and BB for/against, and 3) further adjusted for team’s Defensive Multiplier. This third projection represents the club’s true talent W-L record for 2014. For comparative purposes, each club’s 2014 actual and Pythagorean records are listed.

2014	BIP W-L	K/BB ADJ	DEF ADJ	ACT W-L	PYTH W-L
LAD	89-73	96-66	98-64	94-68	92-70
SF	87-75	87-75	90-72	88-74	87-75
SD	70-92	71-91	71-91	77-85	75-87
COL	80-82	70-92	73-89	66-96	75-87
AZ	67-95	70-92	68-94	64-98	67-95

Let’s take a brief stroll through the numbers in these two tables and make some observations regarding the five teams’ respective 2014 true talent levels.

During the regular season, the Dodgers were clearly the class of the NL West. Their offensive batted ball authority, though it ranked only third in the division behind the Giants and Rockies, still rated well above MLB average. Largely due to the presence of Clayton Kershaw, who is nearly as good a contact manager as he is a bat-misser, the Dodgers by far yielded the least authoritative contact of any pitching staff in the division. Based on BIP authority alone, the Dodgers were an 89-73 club, best in the division.

Kershaw again is a prime reason for the seven-game boost the Dodgers received once K and BB rates are taken into account. The club was above MLB average in all four K and BB rate categories, but most easily outpaced the competition in the pitching K rate category. Interestingly, the Dodgers’ defensive multiplier was quite strong at 97.2, third in a strong defensive division. This was largely attributable to strong infield defense, and bumps their true-talent record up two more games to 98-64, best in the majors in 2014, and well above their actual and Pythagorean marks.

Next up, the World Series champion Giants. This method underscores what the Giants are; above average at everything, though not great in any single aspect of the game. Their most surprising individual strength might be their collective ability to impact the baseball. They easily outdistanced their divisional mates in offensive BIP authority, with the departed Michael Morse and superstar catcher Buster Posey leading the way, and ranked second only to the Dodgers in pitching staff BIP authority allowed. Based on BIP authority alone, the Giants ranked right behind the Dodgers at 87-75.

The Giants were close to MLB average in offensive and pitching K rate, while their division-low 6.5% pitching staff BB rate was a major positive, and their below average 7.0% offensive BB rate a negative. On balance, K/BB didn’t impact their true-talent record. The Giants ranked narrowly behind the Rockies for divisional Defensive Multiplier honors, thanks to large part to strong work in the infield, bumping up their projected record three more games to 90-72, close to but above their actual and Pythagorean records. Just a solid, solid ballclub.

Let’s talk about the long-lost 2014 San Diego Padres, who basically don’t exist at this point. Their offense by far impacted the baseball the least among their divisional brethren, and though they did rank third in the West in pitching staff BIP authority allowed, they were well below average in that aspect of the game as well. Based on BIP authority alone, this was a 70-92 club.

All of their team K and BB rates were higher than the MLB average. For a team with so little offensive punch to possess such a high offensive K rate — highest in the division — is a major no-no. On balance, their K/BB performance adds a single game to their 2014 projection. Their team defense (100.6 defensive multiplier) was slightly below average, with solid outfield play not quite offsetting infield shortcomings. Their final projection remains unaffected at 71-91, six games shy of their actual record, four below their Pythagorean projection.

The Rockies were absolutely killed by injuries in 2014, on both sides of the ball. In the process, however, they just may have found themselves a viable offense. In most recent seasons, the club has created the illusion of a good offense by riding the Coors Field effect, which disguised subpar offensive BIP authority. In 2014, the Rockies actually hit the ball hard, second behind only the Giants within the division, and it wasn’t all on the backs of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Unfortunately, what appeared to be a promising rotation was ravaged by injury, and their replacements yielded the second highest BIP authority in the division, and third highest in MLB. On BIP authority alone, this was an 80-82 club.

The Rockies were absolutely killed on K’s and BB’s, ranking worse than MLB average in all four measures. The most catastrophic shortfall was in their pitching K rate; their 17.2% mark, was second worst in baseball, ahead of only the Twins, who don’t get to face opposing pitchers almost every day. Of course, the Rockies weren’t expecting Franklin Morales, Yohan Flande, Christian Bergman and Tyler Matzek to start 61 of their 162 games. The Rockies are docked a stark 10 games for their K/BB inefficacy, down to 70-92. Very quietly, the Rockies have assembled an exceptional team defense; their 95.5 defensive multiplier was best in the division, and was supported by solid infield and outfield work. It bumped their projection up by three games to 73-89, third in the West, seven games ahead of their actual mark, but two behind their Pythagorean record.

Last, and least, we have the Diamondbacks. There really isn’t much on the positive side of their 2014 ledger. Their offensive BIP authority ranked fourth in the division, ahead of only the lowly Padres, but still well below MLB average. Their pitching staff BIP authority allowed, by a country mile, was the worst in baseball. On BIP authority alone, they were a 67-95 club.

One of the few positive things that could be said about the 2014 D’backs is that they at least put the bat on the baseball; their 19.1% K rate was easily the lowest in the West. Of course, they would gladly trade some K’s for a solid increase in BIP authority. Adjustment for K and BB rates adds three games onto their projection, to 70-92. On top of their other woes, the Diamondbacks had the worst defensive multiplier in the West, at 102.2, largely due to subpar infield defense. This drops to their projection to 68-94, four games ahead of their actual record, and one short of their Pythagorean mark.

Let’s now look forward. Below are the current 2015 Steamer projections, as of Wednesday afternoon:

STEAMER	15 PROJ
LAD	91-71
SF	82-80
SD	80-82
COL	77-85
AZ	74-88

That’s actually pretty interesting……the teams are in the same order as their 2014 true-talent projection, and the Padres are still seen by Steamer as a sub-.500 club despite all of their offseason dealing. Let’s briefly label and discuss club below. One note; I haven’t delved into the clubs’ respective bullpens, as year-to-year club performance in that area tends to fluctuate wildly.

1 – LOS ANGELES DODGERS – The “Moneyball With A Bankroll” Club
For everyone who has ever wanted to see small market, Moneyball-esque principles coupled with a you-know-what-load of money, here’s your test case. Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi’s offseason wasn’t marked by a trail of money (at least not yet, Yoan Moncada/Hector Olivera fans), but rather a streamlining, or wisening of the roster. They have upgraded at second base, shortstop and catcher with Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins and Yasmani Grandal, and have 2014 semi-regulars Justin Turner and A.J. Ellis hanging around should an injury occur. Scott Van Slyke provides quality insurance at first base and in the outfield. They can withstand an injury to any single position player. Rotation depth is good but not great, with Joe Wieland and Juan Nicasio likely the first two line in should one of their starting five falter. The Kenley Jansen injury smarts a bit, but shouldn’t be a lingering issue. This time around, they are the clear class of the division, and that’s before any potential near-term additions from the Cuban free agent ranks.

2 – SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS – The “Well, It Is An Odd-Numbered Year” Club
Talk about a quiet offseason. Exit Michael Morse, Pablo Sandoval and Marco Scutaro, the last of whom barely played in 2014, and enter Casey McGehee and Norichika Aoki. The pitching staff returns basically untouched. Position player depth is a potential issue, as the loss of any of one of Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford or Hunter Pence could be a big problem. While there is some age, recent injury and risk in their starting rotation, they do have Madison Bumgarner, and also likely have the best #6-7 starters in the division in Tim Lincecum and Yusmeiro Petit. The Giants will likely again be poking around in the wild card mix, but it’s difficult to see 90-plus win upside with the current group.

3 – SAN DIEGO PADRES – The “This Should Be Really Interesting” Club
First of all, in addition to being bad, the 2014 Padres were a boring baseball club, and that’s no way to go through life. They are boring no longer, but how much better they are remains to be seen. New GM A.J. Preller has remade his major league roster without A) tearing apart last year’s MLB roster, or B) dealing away their very best prospects. This is a very good thing. He has assembled a fairly deep group of position players, particularly in the outfield, where newcomers Justin Upton, Wil Myers and Matt Kemp can look around and see 2014 holdovers such as Cameron Maybin, Will Venable and Carlos Quentin potentially playing supporting roles. Their sole indispensable position player might actually be new starting catcher Derek Norris. Still, shortstop is a potential hole, and the club could very well be below average at all four infield positions. Starting rotation depth is strong, with a mix of injury-plagued veterans (Brandon Morrow, Josh Johnson) and promising youngsters (Robbie Erlin, Matt Wisler) waiting in the wings behind the current starting five. This is an extremely high-variance club; if all goes well, the playoffs are attainable, though another low-70’s win total can’t totally be ruled out.

4 – COLORADO ROCKIES – The “Let’s Hope Injuries Were The Main Issue” Club
There were times during the first half of the 2014 season that the Rockies plan appeared to be coming into focus. Then the bottom fell out. New GM Jeff Bridich has doubled down on the 2014 squad, adding some fringe supporting players on offense and only Kyle Kendrick and David Hale to the pitching staff, while losing only Josh Rutledge, Michael Cuddyer and Brett Anderson from their core group. Rockies’ brass have done the hard part; they have assembled an offense that is actually pretty good, and not just a Coors Field illusion, and coupled it with a very good defense, particularly in the infield. Their pitching staff, when healthy, yields plenty of the grounders that their infield devours. Troy Tulowitzki and Nolan Arenado are the two truly indispensable position players, as they now have four viable outfield possibilities for three spots. On the mound, they need Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray to evolve from solid insurance policies into actual MLB starters who can miss bats. If they can do so, the Rockies can be the surprise of the NL in 2015.

5 – ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS – The “Material Playing Time For Tuffy Gosewich?” Club
The first step in any massive rebuilding project is to locate and reach rock bottom. The D’Backs will likely find that level in 2015. It is way too early to assess the relative success of new GM Dave Stewart, but he has clearly taken some bold steps that will entrust material playing time to a number of young, untested, and in some cases unheralded players. It made some sense to deal Didi Gregorius, as he and Chris Owings were redundant, but did the club really need to move Miguel Montero and Wade Miley, two solid players who didn’t have very expensive price tags? The performance of the youngsters received in those deals, particularly starting pitchers Robbie Ray, Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster will provide the answer, likely soon. Paul Goldschmidt is their one clear indispensable position player star, and the club lacks a single slam-dunk outfield bat, and has potential issues at shortstop and third base, especially if Yasmany Tomas isn’t ready. Their opening day starter just might be Josh Collmenter. This is a problem, but the 2014 bar for success is low. Simply identify a few members of a young core that can sustain future success.