Ruben Amaro Wasn’t Nuts for Turning Down the Padres

So, look. I don’t want to write any more about Cole Hamels. You don’t want to read any more about Cole Hamels. We’ve all basically covered every possible angle of the Cole Hamels thing. It’s tired, and all anyone wants is to be able to move on. But, on the other hand, yesterday I published articles about Chris Young, Huston Street, and fan opinions of pitching coaches. So now I’m writing about Cole Hamels again.

At least this time there’s new information. Ken Rosenthal wrote this earlier:

The Padres wanted Hamels. The Padres made an aggressive offer for Hamels. The Padres are one of nine teams that can acquire Hamels without his permission.
[…]
It is not known precisely how they view the Padres’ top three prospects — righty Matt Wisler, catcher Austin Hedges and outfielder Hunter Renfroe. But a source last month said that in the Phillies’ view, the Padres might “not have enough.”

That’s pretty concrete. That’s reporting that the Padres made a bid. They’re one of apparently four teams to have made an actual bid, but now from Bob Nightengale, we get names:

The Phillies keep shopping Hamels, and have had plenty of talks with the likes of the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox, but continue to await an acceptable proposal. […] The Padres’ offer of prospects Hunter Renfroe and Austin Hedges isn’t enough.

Rosenthal reported that the Padres made an offer. Nightengale, here, reports that the Padres offered Renfroe and Hedges. So, two of the Padres’ alleged “big three” prospects who remain. One thing we don’t know is if this is actually true. Another thing we don’t know is, if we grant that the proposal is real, was there money involved? We can’t be absolutely certain that Hedges and Renfroe were offered for Hamels, straight up, with no other bits included.

But let’s just make the assumptions and move on. Let’s say everything that’s been said is valid. Let’s say the Padres made the proposal, and the Phillies turned it down. What is there to be made of this? One has to figure the offer is no longer on the table, with the Padres having grabbed James Shields. So Hamels remains, knowing he’ll have a new home, but not knowing where, or when anything will happen.

My first thought: the offer seems in the vicinity of fair. Perhaps it favors one team, but if such a trade were to happen, I don’t think it would be a disaster for anybody. It would’ve been an opportunity for Ruben Amaro to just get this over with before spring training. Hamels has a little more value to a team like the Padres than, say, the Red Sox, because San Diego wouldn’t have to guarantee Hamels’ fifth-year option. Also, while I haven’t run the math myself, my feeling is that wins this past offseason were priced higher than I expected at the start of the offseason, when I first dove into the Hamels trade-rumor quicksand.

I do think Amaro could’ve accepted the deal, and it would’ve been all right. Renfroe’s a talented kid. Hedges too. These guys are regarded as quality prospects for a reason. But as I’ve thought about it more, I’ve been better able to justify the Phillies’ decision. I don’t know of Amaro’s own thought processes, but following thought processes with which I’m familiar, I don’t think it’s nuts for Amaro to have held out.

I don’t think he’s going to find a Blake Swihart on the other end of this. Nor do I think he’ll end up with a Mookie Betts or an Addison Russell. The best Dodgers prospects will presumably remain the best Dodgers prospects. For Philadelphia, I’m sure it’s all been frustrating, yet while there’s a gap between what they want and what they’d have to settle for, it seems like they could settle for more than Renfroe and Hedges.

Obviously, this whole thing almost entirely depends on how you feel about Hunter Renfroe and Austin Hedges. Hedges in particular is polarizing, and opinions are scattered on both. But I don’t think the trade would’ve come with enough safety. There’s no such thing as a safe prospect, but there is a spectrum, and Renfroe and Hedges come with their own risks.

Renfroe was a first-round pick, and he’s a favorite for his tools. He’s still plenty young, and he possesses massive raw power, with athleticism to spare. He’s the subject of more than a few tall tales, and he’s an easy guy to dream on. He also has a fairly raw approach, and in his only exposure to Double-A, spanning 251 plate appearances, he posted a .659 OPS. That by no means dooms him, but he hasn’t yet performed against advanced competition, and it’s these sorts of guys who are more boom-or-bust. Renfroe’s likely to end up in a corner, and if his discipline gets in the way of his raw strength, that’s not much of a player. I like a prospect with a high floor. Renfroe has a low floor.

And then there’s the Hedges thing. You know what this is about. Hedges is considered an elite-level defensive catcher. Easily big-league caliber, now. Baseball Prospectus recently wrote the following sentence:

Super-prospect Austin Hedges has the best minor league framing season on record to date. Tony Wolters, who moved from infield to catcher, trails Hedges from a distance.

There’s pretty much no question that Hedges is great behind the plate, and that would come with him as he climbs the ladder. The issue is the hitting. Hedges doesn’t do it. He might someday do it, but he hasn’t hit a lot yet, and last year in Double-A he posted a sub-.600 OPS. More than 450 plate appearances. When Yadier Molina was Hedges’ age, he hit a lot better in Triple-A, and he hit a lot better in the majors. Hedges doesn’t yet have the results, and Hedges doesn’t seem to have the necessary tools.

He might eventually hit enough, and it’s his main focus for 2015, but nothing’s guaranteed, here. The bat is a concern. The counter-argument is this: if Hedges is so good behind the plate, he doesn’t need to hit. Look at all those framing runs! Value is value. Jose Molina didn’t hit. I believe in the pitch-framing stuff, and it’s the framing that I think will make Hedges an actually helpful big-leaguer.

Yet, often, when I talk about framing, Dave issues a reminder that framing still doesn’t have much of a market. Teams are aware of it, but teams don’t pay for it like they pay for other things. Russell Martin got a huge contract, but Russell Martin has a lot of strengths. Hank Conger was dealt for cheap. Francisco Cervelli was dealt for cheap. Rene Rivera was just a part of a much bigger trade. I don’t even know where Chris Stewart is. Carlos Corporan was put on the scrap heap. Let’s say Hedges doesn’t hit much. Let’s say he’s a defensive specialist. Evidence suggests those guys aren’t hard to find. Maybe this is an inefficiency, but it’s become a long-lasting inefficiency, and so while Hedges has a virtually certain elite skill, today, that same skill isn’t thought of like other skills in the majors. Hedges needs to hit to be considered a special player. Good luck finding a group of people who all agree that Hedges will hit down the road.

If the Phillies traded Hamels for Renfroe and Hedges, it could absolutely work out for them. Renfroe could be ready by August, and Hedges could be the regular backstop somewhere in 2016. But that’s a trade with a fairly high probability of not returning much of anything. Renfroe is high-risk, and while Hedges should have a career, at the moment he’s poised to average 40 games a year instead of 120. As the comps go, the Phillies don’t want to come out of this with Jeff Francoeur and Drew Butera.

So the Phillies wait. Probably, they shouldn’t still have Cole Hamels, but considering just the Padres’ offer, it’s understandable. There’s a lot of risk in there, and while the Padres ultimately signed Shields instead, that offer might reappear in some form if injury strikes. Even aside from Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow, you can’t automatically count on big innings from Tyson Ross or Andrew Cashner. Situations change, somewhat unpredictably, and at this point it makes some sense for the Phillies to wait through the season’s first few months. One can’t predict the midseason market, but Hamels stands a good chance of being the best player available. The one thing you can predict is the Phillies will be bad.

So far, I think A.J. Preller has come the closest. You can understand why Hamels could be a Padre today. And you can understand why he isn’t one.