Predictions That Will Be Wrong
Welcome to the best day of the year. The 2010 season is upon us, and we’re almost to the point where we can stop speculating and start reacting. Before we move on to writing about the happenings on the field, one last speculative exercise – my 2010 predictions. I have no special ability to see the future, of course, but given the information available today, this is what I would guess.
Playoff Teams, AL: New York-Minnesota-Texas-Boston
Playoff Teams, NL: Philadelphia-St. Louis-Colorado-Los Angeles
WS: Minnesota over Colorado
AL MVP: Josh Hamilton
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Position Player WAR Leader: Alex Rodriguez
NL Position Player WAR Leader: Hanley Ramirez
AL Cy Young: James Shields
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
AL Pitcher WAR Leader: CC Sabathia
NL Pitcher WAR Leader: Roy Halladay
AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz
NL Rookie of the Year: Stephen Strasburg
AL Rookie WAR Leader: Brian Matusz
NL Rookie WAR Leader: Stephen Strasburg
Five Random Guesses About 2010:
1. The Braves will take the Phillies down to the wire in the NL East.
2. The Brewers will make the NL Central far more interesting than most people expect.
3. Omar Minaya will be fired before the season ends.
4. Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Jones, and Mark Teixeira will all post positive UZRs and be among the league leaders in defensive value at their respective positions.
5. The first time Stephen Strasburg and Jason Heyward face each other, time will stand still.
Welcome back, baseball.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
AL MVP Josh Hamilton?
I think someone slipped something in your coffee this morning.
… and I really hope you are wrong with shields, I just traded him away :/
Notice that’s not his selection for the highest WAR. The good media that’s always following Josh Hamilton around will likely generate some votes if he’s in the top tier.
That said, I still don’t think he’ll be in that top tier.
What bugs me is the Neftali Feliz as ROY pick. Is he going to win Rookie of the Year as a relief pitcher? Or is he expected to take over as a starter mideason? Has there even been a RP voted as the ROY?
Do we really think Texas will stick with their current rotation? I find it hard not to see Feliz and Holland in the rotation by July, and for good.
Andrew Bailey
Kazuhiro Sazaki (2000 AL)
Scott Williamson (1999, Reds)
Huston Street
I think this was supposed to be a claim about how people would vote, not who would be most deserving. I bet Dave would list five guys in the AL who he thinks will beat Hamliton by a lot in WAR, but writers won’t see it that way. We already know he likes A-Rod better; I’m sure he thinks Mauer and Longoria are better; I bet he thinks Grady Sizemore is better; and I’m sure that he thinks there are better pitchers (but they have their own award.)
LOL
I’d have to think twice (or three times) on that Shields pick.
I love predictions.
Can I predict that Dayton Moore will be fired as well.
You can predict Dayton will be fired, but a more acturate prediction would be Hillman gets extended. I kid, I kid.
Go Royals!
Oh, and i do think a write up is in order on that James Shields prediction…where does that come from?
You mean besides Andrew Bailey last year?
Lol, I’m an ass. Good catch. I suppose that my head is fixated on Elvis Andrus as the ROY last year since he actually deserved it.
Dave,
I don’t see how the Braves could take the Phillies to the wire in the NL East and then miss the wild card. Dodger’s wouldn’t have a better record than them, in all likelihood. But I’m nitpicking. Good post as always.
Well, it’s possible that a resurgent Mets (bear with me, I’m speculating) and a Strasburgized second-half Nats (again, we’re in speculationville) will make the AL East a tough place for both the Phillies and Braves, so that they take each other down to the wire without putting up enough wins for the loser to qualify for the WC. Of course, both the Dodgers and the Rockies would have to be running wild in in the NL West (and not giving up too much when playing that tough NL East) so…. yeah, it would be a peculiar set of circumstances.
But any given baseball season is nothing if not peculiar.
The Mets and Nats made it so tough, in fact, that they switched allegiances and decided life would be easier with the likes of Boston and New York in the AL East, apparently. =)
(Or maybe it’s that zany “rotating division” concept that already took hold!)
Hey, I said I was speculating….
I like the Marlins more than the Mets or Nats. Easily better pitching with Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco (neither one is as good as Santana, but the Mets have Santana and then “those other guys that start those other games”), arguably better hitting depending on the health of Jose Reyes and Bay’s transition to Citi Field. And beyond Zimmerman and Dunn’s offense, and MAYBE Ian Desmond’s potential and Strasburg’s still unsolidified midseason callup, the Nats are a joke.
Looks like something just flew over Quincy’s head..
I see no way an everyday LFer in Boston has an above average UZR.
We will see though.
Good post. Pretty spot on in “way it should go” world.
Regardless of who wins the AL Cy Young, I fully believe Jon Lester will outperform James Shields. Just my $.02.
I predict that Minnesota fans will not be able to handle the awesome goodness of outdoor baseball in a real, honest-to-goodness major league park. We may all die of happiness.
If frostbite in October (or May!) doesn’t get you first.
Boooo!
I’m befuddled by your Shields pick. Shields was #12 in FIP and xFIP in 2009. His 2009 walk rate of 2.13 was good, and if he can get down to the level of the last two years (1.51, 1.67) that’ll be better, but his K rate was 6.84/9, not great. And he got a bit unlucky last year (.319 BABIP) but not enormously so. You’re basically saying he’s going to regain his 2007-2008 walk rate, post career-bests in strikeouts, get lucky and have fantastic defense. Well, his outfield defense is great, but the infield is only average (depending on where Zobrist plays, of course).
I’m just not seeing anything in the peripherals to predict a Shields win. People I would predict before Shields include:
Lester
Greinke
Verlander
Hernandez
Beckett
Sabathia
Those are all fairly confident picks…I’m sure I could find others I would bet on to receive more Cy Young votes than Shields.
Therein lies the fun in predictions – going against the CW on occasion. Before last season, no one really saw Greinke breaking out in such a huge way.
No, but there are pitchers actually in Tampa Bay’s rotation that probably have a better shot at the Cy Young than Shields (Davis, Price) which does make that pick particularly circumspect. At least Greinke showed ace potential; I’m not sure Shields does. FIPs and xFIPs around 4.00 are good, but not Cy Young caliber, and if they are, the AL needs to import some arms or that guy’s BABIP is around .150.
Woah, Woah. Price and Davis?
Really, no, that’s not true. Plenty of people who were paying close attention rather than disregarding all things KC knew that Greinke was on the verge of a breakout. And several (not a ton, but a decent handful) predicted the Cy Young – including three writers at Hardball Times: Evan Brunell, Geoff Young, and Craig Brown:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2009-tht-staff-predictions/
That said, I have to agree that I see nothing in Shields peripherals that suggest similar, and he’d possibly be the first “backwards” pitcher to do it.
Dave, you are such a Seattle homer. You always pick them.
These are just Dave’s guesses. Sure Shields is an unconventional choice for CY, but it could still happen. Shields is a good pitcher, Tampa has great defense and a good offense, so he might happen to get a high Win total this year (and let’s face it, Wins are still important for Cy votes). You don’t need to have the best FIP to win the CY Young award.
Prediction that will be wrong? Your Angels predictions.
Shields/Ellsbury/Feliz will all prove wrong…
Dave, at least you nailed the title for this post.
Are you still going to write that post on Adrian Gonzalez?
I like when people have out on a limb picks with a decent reason.
That said, I really don’t see the Twins succeeding in the post season. Baker, Slowey, Liriano doesn’t seem very frightening.
Thankfully fear isn’t a requirement for success.
It is if you are afraid of the lineups they are pitching to.
I’ve got the Rays over the Rockies btw.
I’m looking at Braves over Rays. I think I spent too long looking at CHONE this spring training, and then reading TRancel’s twitter posts.
I think if CC leads the league in WAR he will have put up a good enough ERA and enough wins to win the Cy Young
Considering he is getting older and farther away from his peak high 7.5 WAR season, and since Jaokim Soria will being to get 3 inning saves for the Royals and post a higher WAR.
I agree with Christian about CC. If he does indeed post the highest WAR I have a hard time believing he’s not going to win the Cy, not with the offense the Yanks have which should give him a bunch a wins. Sure the voters are starting to realize that wins are overrated but if you post a ton of them to go along with great secondary numbers(which he must have if you’re predicting such a high WAR) and pitch in a major market where he’ll get a ton of exposure and national TV games, have won a Cy before and probably do it for a playoff team to boot it would be really hard to imagine him not winning it.
My one question is with all the talent on TB, how could someone predict they will get a Cy Young season out of Shields and still not make the playoffs? I know the AL East is tough, but come on
Kinda like the Royals did last year, in a considerably weaker division. Even a Cy Young-winning world-beater only takes the ball once every five games…
Dave – I hope you’re already planning on revisiting these predictions at the end of the season. Happened to come across these again because they were referenced in Joe’s James Shields posting today. Your pick for AL MVP…haha. Whatever it was that was slipped into your coffee (according to Tom B)…I’ll take some!