Predictions That Will Be Wrong

Welcome to the best day of the year. The 2010 season is upon us, and we’re almost to the point where we can stop speculating and start reacting. Before we move on to writing about the happenings on the field, one last speculative exercise – my 2010 predictions. I have no special ability to see the future, of course, but given the information available today, this is what I would guess.

Playoff Teams, AL: New York-Minnesota-Texas-Boston
Playoff Teams, NL: Philadelphia-St. Louis-Colorado-Los Angeles

WS: Minnesota over Colorado

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

AL Position Player WAR Leader: Alex Rodriguez
NL Position Player WAR Leader: Hanley Ramirez

AL Cy Young: James Shields
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay

AL Pitcher WAR Leader: CC Sabathia
NL Pitcher WAR Leader: Roy Halladay

AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz
NL Rookie of the Year: Stephen Strasburg

AL Rookie WAR Leader: Brian Matusz
NL Rookie WAR Leader: Stephen Strasburg

Five Random Guesses About 2010:

1. The Braves will take the Phillies down to the wire in the NL East.

2. The Brewers will make the NL Central far more interesting than most people expect.

3. Omar Minaya will be fired before the season ends.

4. Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Jones, and Mark Teixeira will all post positive UZRs and be among the league leaders in defensive value at their respective positions.

5. The first time Stephen Strasburg and Jason Heyward face each other, time will stand still.

Welcome back, baseball.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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Tom B
Guest
Tom B

AL MVP Josh Hamilton?

I think someone slipped something in your coffee this morning.

… and I really hope you are wrong with shields, I just traded him away :/

Bronnt
Member
Bronnt

Notice that’s not his selection for the highest WAR. The good media that’s always following Josh Hamilton around will likely generate some votes if he’s in the top tier.

That said, I still don’t think he’ll be in that top tier.

What bugs me is the Neftali Feliz as ROY pick. Is he going to win Rookie of the Year as a relief pitcher? Or is he expected to take over as a starter mideason? Has there even been a RP voted as the ROY?

Fresh Hops
Guest
Fresh Hops

Do we really think Texas will stick with their current rotation? I find it hard not to see Feliz and Holland in the rotation by July, and for good.

Balco Bashers
Guest
Balco Bashers

Andrew Bailey

john
Guest
john

Kazuhiro Sazaki (2000 AL)

Big Red Machine
Guest
Big Red Machine

Scott Williamson (1999, Reds)

DJ
Guest
DJ

Huston Street

Fresh Hops
Guest
Fresh Hops

I think this was supposed to be a claim about how people would vote, not who would be most deserving. I bet Dave would list five guys in the AL who he thinks will beat Hamliton by a lot in WAR, but writers won’t see it that way. We already know he likes A-Rod better; I’m sure he thinks Mauer and Longoria are better; I bet he thinks Grady Sizemore is better; and I’m sure that he thinks there are better pitchers (but they have their own award.)

lee_d
Guest
lee_d

LOL