Projecting All of the Prospects Traded at the Deadline

In the table below, you’ll find a treasure trove of information pertaining to the prospects who changed hands this trade deadline. There were 67 of them in all. Since there was a flurry of early trade activity this year, I’m using a liberal definition of “trade deadline” that considers all trades since the July 13th Jose Quintana deal. For reference, I performed a similar exercise last year.

The “KATOH” and “KATOH+” columns refer to each player’s projected WAR forecast for the first six years of his major-league career, as evaluated by my KATOH projection system. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotesthe methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings. James Kaprielian and Gregory Santos have not played in the domestic minor leagues this year, and therefore did not receive projections. Players whose projections are based on less than 100 plate appearances or batters faced (PA/BF) have a “*” next to their names, and should be viewed with extreme skepticism.

KATOH Projections for the Prospects Traded at the Deadline
Prospect Pos New Team Old Team Trade Headliner KATOH KATOH+
Eloy Jimenez RF CHW CHC Jose Quintana 6.0 10.9
Willie Calhoun 2B TEX LAD Yu Darvish 9.4 8.9
Dustin Fowler CF OAK NYY Sonny Gray 9.0 8.2
Tyler O’Neill LF STL SEA Marco Gonzales 8.0 6.7
Esteury Ruiz* 2B SDP KCR Trevor Cahill 6.7 6.1
Jeimer Candelario 3B DET CHC Justin Wilson 4.4 4.3
Teoscar Hernandez RF TOR HOU Francisco Liriano 4.7 3.9
Jorge Mateo SS OAK NYY Sonny Gray 4.5 3.8
Isaac Paredes SS DET CHC Justin Wilson 5.2 3.6
Tobias Myers RHP TBR BAL Tim Beckham 3.4 3.3
Blake Rutherford CF CHW NYY Tommy Kahnle 1.4 3.2
Casey Gillaspie 1B CHW TBR Dan Jennings 3.5 3.1
Dylan Cease RHP CHW CHC Jose Quintana 2.2 2.7
Zack Littell RHP MIN NYY Jaime Garcia 4.7 2.3
Dawel Lugo 3B DET ARI J.D. Martinez 3.2 2.1
Tyler Webb LHP MIL NYY Garrett Cooper 2.5 2.0
Ryan Cordell RF CHW MIL Anthony Swarzak 2.3 1.9
Matt Strahm LHP SDP KCR Trevor Cahill 1.6 1.9
Huascar Ynoa RHP ATL MIN Jaime Garcia 1.9 1.9
Thomas Pannone LHP TOR CLE Joe Smith 4.1 1.9
Luke Farrell RHP LAD KCR Cash 2.4 1.8
Jesus Luzardo* LHP OAK WAS Ryan Madson 1.6 1.6
Marco Gonzales LHP SEA STL Tyler O’Neill 1.9 1.6
Tyler Watson LHP MIN WAS Brandon Kintzler 3.2 1.4
Tito Polo CF CHW NYY Tommy Kahnle 2.7 1.4
Jose Gomez SS PHI COL Pat Neshek 2.3 1.3
Gabriel Moya LHP MIN ARI John Ryan Murphy 2.7 1.2
Merandy Gonzalez RHP MIA NYM A.J. Ramos 1.7 1.1
Dietrich Enns LHP MIN NYY Jaime Garcia 1.5 1.1
Hendrik Clementina CF CIN LAD Tony Cingrani 0.8 1.1
Garrett Cooper 1B NYY MIL Tyler Webb 1.9 1.1
McKenzie Mills LHP PHI WAS Howie Kendrick 2.6 1.0
A.J. Puckett RHP CHW KCR Melky Cabrera 1.2 1.0
A.J. Alexy RHP TEX LAD Yu Darvish 2.5 1.0
Brendon Davis SS TEX LAD Yu Darvish 3.4 1.0
Pablo Lopez RHP SEA MIA David Phelps 2.1 0.9
Jamie Callahan RHP NYM BOS Addison Reed 1.5 0.8
Yefry Ramirez RHP BAL NYY Future Considerations 1.7 0.8
Alejandro Requena RHP PHI COL Pat Neshek 1.8 0.8
Samad Taylor 2B TOR CLE Joe Smith 0.9 0.8
Luis Madero RHP LAA ARI David Hernandez 0.8 0.7
Sergio Alcantara SS DET ARI J.D. Martinez 1.3 0.7
Jeferson Mejia RHP OAK ARI Adam Rosales 0.9 0.5
Sheldon Neuse SS OAK WAS Ryan Madson 1.1 0.5
Oneil Cruz 3B PIT LAD Tony Watson 1.5 0.5
Brayan Hernandez CF SEA MIA David Phelps 0.4 0.4
Brandon Miller RHP SEA MIA David Phelps 1.1 0.4
Yeyson Yrizarri SS CHW TEX Future Considerations 1.1 0.4
Garrett Cleavinger LHP PHI BAL Jeremy Hellickson 0.7 0.4
Shaun Anderson RHP SFG BOS Eduardo Nunez 0.7 0.3
J.D. Hammer RHP PHI COL Pat Neshek 0.8 0.3
Ian Clarkin LHP CHW NYY Tommy Kahnle 0.5 0.3
Ricardo Cespedes CF MIA NYM A.J. Ramos 0.2 0.2
Lukas Schiraldi RHP SEA MIA David Phelps 0.7 0.2
Jose King* 2B DET ARI J.D. Martinez 0.3 0.2
Tayler Scott RHP TEX MIL Jeremy Jeffress 0.3 0.2
Matt Rose 1B CHW CHC Jose Quintana 0.4 0.2
Gerson Bautista RHP NYM BOS Addison Reed 0.2 0.1
Luis Ysla LHP LAD BOS Cash 0.2 0.1
Drew Smith RHP NYM TBR Lucas Duda 0.3 0.1
Andre Davis LHP CHW KCR Melky Cabrera 0.4 0.1
Angel German RHP PIT LAD Tony Watson 0.3 0.1
Stephen Nogosek RHP NYM BOS Addison Reed 0.2 0.0
Seth McGarry RHP PHI PIT Joaquin Benoit 0.1 0.0
Bryant Flete 2B CHW CHC Jose Quintana 0.0 0.0
Ryan McBroom 1B NYY TOR Rob Refsnyder 0.0 0.0
Dillon McNamara RHP SFG NYY Undisclosed 0.1 0.0

I aggregated these KATOH+ projections both by acquiring team and trading team. Then I took the difference to make the following chart. Prospects with less than 100 PA/BF were excluded from this analysis.

By my math, the Chicago White Sox’s farm system benefited most from this year’s trade deadline and it isn’t particularly close. Chicago added a whopping 25.2 WAR, which is essentially twice as much as many as any other team. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, given all of the big-league assets Chicago traded away. Eloy Jimenez accounts for nearly half of their prospect value, with Blake Rutherford, Casey Gillaspie and Dylan Cease also projecting for more than 2.0 WAR while under team control.

The next teams are Oakland and Texas, who got some serious prospect value in exchange for Sonny Gray and Yu Darvish. Detroit also got a decent haul for Justin Wilson, Alex Avila and J.D. Martinez. Toronto quietly added nearly 7 WAR in KATOH’s eyes, despite only selling off two unremarkable relievers in Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith. Toronto landed KATOH top-100 prospect Teoscar Hernandez, intriguing lefty Thomas Pannone and low-minors performer  Samad Taylor in return.

For those interested, here’s the data behind the above graphic.

Net Prospect Value Added at the Trade Deadline
Team KATOH+ Proj. WAR
CHW 25.2
OAK 13.0
TEX 10.7
DET 10.7
TOR 6.6
STL 5.1
MIN 4.1
PHI 3.8
MIA 3.2
SDP 1.9
ATL 1.9
CIN 1.1
LAA 0.7
PIT 0.6
SFG 0.3
TBR 0.1
NYM -0.3
MIL -1.2
BOS -1.3
COL -2.4
CLE -2.7
BAL -2.9
WAS -2.9
HOU -3.9
KCR -4.8
ARI -5.2
SEA -7.0
LAD -10.7
CHC -21.7
NYY -22.0

Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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Aaron (UK)
6 years ago

Great stuff, thanks – however you need to flip the teams for Tyler Watson.

6 years ago
Reply to  Aaron (UK)

Twins should also be at +4.1, not +2.7