Projecting the Prospects in the Cespedes Trade

Just minutes before the non-waiver trade deadline, the Mets finally landed the offensive spark plug they were looking for. They swung a deal for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for pitching prospects Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa. Here’s what my fancy computer math has to say about these two minor league hurlers and their respective big league futures.

Michael Fulmer, 4.8 WAR

Michael Fulmer, 22, has spent nearly the entire season in Double-A, where he’s pitched to a sparkling 1.88 ERA and 2.59 FIP in 86 innings. His 24% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate have both been better than average, but his performance has been really helped by his ability to keep the ball on the ground — and by extension, in the ballpark. He’s allowed just four homers on the year, due in no small part to his 52% ground ball rate (according to MLBfarm).

Based on his 2015 numbers, KATOH projects Fulmer for 4.8 WAR through age 28, which would have made him the 68th highest ranked prospect in the preseason. This is way up from his preseason forecast of 1.7 WAR, which was based on his less impressive 2014 numbers. Here are Fulmer’s top comps calculated by way of some Mahalanobis Distance calculations:

Rank	Mah Dist	Name	IP thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.28	Jason Young	29	0.0
2	0.36	Luis Andujar	123	0.0
3	0.38	Dan Wright	366	0.6
4	0.53	Justin Thompson	647	11.0
5	0.58	Kevin Correia	596	4.8
6	0.64	Ted Lilly	628	7.9
7	0.65	Marc Barcelo	0	0.0
8	0.68	Adam Miller	0	0.0
9	0.71	Lloyd Peever	0	0.0
10	0.75	Mike Hinckley	23	0.0
11	0.77	Dana Eveland	392	3.2
12	0.78	James Shields	977	15.1
13	0.79	Rick Huisman	39	0.1
14	0.83	Justin Duchscherer	268	3.6
15	0.85	John Thomson	665	9.0
16	0.88	Gabe White	334	3.3
17	0.89	Heath Murray	146	0.0
18	0.91	Tom Gorzelanny	663	6.5
19	0.92	Travis Phelps	105	0.0
20	0.97	Allen Watson	870	3.5

*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.

There are certainly some promising names in there, including Justin Thompson, Kevin Correa, Ted Lilly, and even James Shields. Fulmer’s odds of matching those pitchers’ production aren’t great, but such an outcome is certainly within the realm of possibility.

*****

Luis Cessa, 2.8 WAR

Luis Cessa isn’t quite as exciting as Fulmer, but is still an intriguing prospect in his own right. The 23-year-old has split time between Double-A and Triple-A this year, where he’s worked exclusively out of the rotation. He’s recorded FIPs of 2.65 and 3.84, respectively, between the two stops. Cessa doesn’t miss a ton of bats, as evidenced by his 20% strikeout rate, but has walked just under 5% of batters faced.

KATOH projects Cessa for 2.8 WAR through age 28 with a 75% chance of cracking the big leagues. This would have put him 183rd on KATOH’s preseason list. His 2014 numbers yielded a noticeably worse 1.1 WAR forecast. Chien-Ming Wang is among the 23-year-old’s Mahalanobis comps. Otherwise, it’s mainly back-end starters, relievers and minor leaguers.

Rank	Mah Dist	Name	IP thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.11	Ryan Mullins	0	0.0
2	0.22	Rafael Montero*	54	0.3
3	0.23	Robert Ray	28	0.1
4	0.24	Stephen Faris	0	0.0
5	0.24	Rich Loiselle	206	1.1
6	0.25	Jose Sanchez	0	0.0
7	0.25	Logan Darnell	24	0.0
8	0.28	Rich Loiselle	206	1.1
9	0.31	Kyle Gibson*	354	3.2
10	0.32	Kevin Lomon	16	0.1
11	0.32	Cory Lidle	183	1.8
12	0.34	Robert Rohrbaugh	0	0.0
13	0.34	Mike Bovee	3	0.0
14	0.35	Jason Stanford	61	1.1
15	0.36	Kyle Lobstein*	87	0.9
16	0.39	Chien-Ming Wang	628	10.6
17	0.40	Andy Van Hekken	30	0.5
18	0.43	Brian Flynn*	25	0.0
19	0.46	Jason Olsen	0	0.0
20	0.47	Jon Ratliff	1	0.0

*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.