Projecting the Prospects in the Cespedes Trade
Just minutes before the non-waiver trade deadline, the Mets finally landed the offensive spark plug they were looking for. They swung a deal for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for pitching prospects Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa. Here’s what my fancy computer math has to say about these two minor league hurlers and their respective big league futures.
Michael Fulmer, 4.8 WAR
Michael Fulmer, 22, has spent nearly the entire season in Double-A, where he’s pitched to a sparkling 1.88 ERA and 2.59 FIP in 86 innings. His 24% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate have both been better than average, but his performance has been really helped by his ability to keep the ball on the ground — and by extension, in the ballpark. He’s allowed just four homers on the year, due in no small part to his 52% ground ball rate (according to MLBfarm).
Based on his 2015 numbers, KATOH projects Fulmer for 4.8 WAR through age 28, which would have made him the 68th highest ranked prospect in the preseason. This is way up from his preseason forecast of 1.7 WAR, which was based on his less impressive 2014 numbers. Here are Fulmer’s top comps calculated by way of some Mahalanobis Distance calculations:
| Rank | Mah Dist | Name | IP thru 28 | WAR thru 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.28 | Jason Young | 29 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 0.36 | Luis Andujar | 123 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 0.38 | Dan Wright | 366 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.53 | Justin Thompson | 647 | 11.0 |
| 5 | 0.58 | Kevin Correia | 596 | 4.8 |
| 6 | 0.64 | Ted Lilly | 628 | 7.9 |
| 7 | 0.65 | Marc Barcelo | 0 | 0.0 |
| 8 | 0.68 | Adam Miller | 0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | 0.71 | Lloyd Peever | 0 | 0.0 |
| 10 | 0.75 | Mike Hinckley | 23 | 0.0 |
| 11 | 0.77 | Dana Eveland | 392 | 3.2 |
| 12 | 0.78 | James Shields | 977 | 15.1 |
| 13 | 0.79 | Rick Huisman | 39 | 0.1 |
| 14 | 0.83 | Justin Duchscherer | 268 | 3.6 |
| 15 | 0.85 | John Thomson | 665 | 9.0 |
| 16 | 0.88 | Gabe White | 334 | 3.3 |
| 17 | 0.89 | Heath Murray | 146 | 0.0 |
| 18 | 0.91 | Tom Gorzelanny | 663 | 6.5 |
| 19 | 0.92 | Travis Phelps | 105 | 0.0 |
| 20 | 0.97 | Allen Watson | 870 | 3.5 |
*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.
There are certainly some promising names in there, including Justin Thompson, Kevin Correa, Ted Lilly, and even James Shields. Fulmer’s odds of matching those pitchers’ production aren’t great, but such an outcome is certainly within the realm of possibility.
*****
Luis Cessa, 2.8 WAR
Luis Cessa isn’t quite as exciting as Fulmer, but is still an intriguing prospect in his own right. The 23-year-old has split time between Double-A and Triple-A this year, where he’s worked exclusively out of the rotation. He’s recorded FIPs of 2.65 and 3.84, respectively, between the two stops. Cessa doesn’t miss a ton of bats, as evidenced by his 20% strikeout rate, but has walked just under 5% of batters faced.
KATOH projects Cessa for 2.8 WAR through age 28 with a 75% chance of cracking the big leagues. This would have put him 183rd on KATOH’s preseason list. His 2014 numbers yielded a noticeably worse 1.1 WAR forecast. Chien-Ming Wang is among the 23-year-old’s Mahalanobis comps. Otherwise, it’s mainly back-end starters, relievers and minor leaguers.
| Rank | Mah Dist | Name | IP thru 28 | WAR thru 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.11 | Ryan Mullins | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 0.22 | Rafael Montero* | 54 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.23 | Robert Ray | 28 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.24 | Stephen Faris | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.24 | Rich Loiselle | 206 | 1.1 |
| 6 | 0.25 | Jose Sanchez | 0 | 0.0 |
| 7 | 0.25 | Logan Darnell | 24 | 0.0 |
| 8 | 0.28 | Rich Loiselle | 206 | 1.1 |
| 9 | 0.31 | Kyle Gibson* | 354 | 3.2 |
| 10 | 0.32 | Kevin Lomon | 16 | 0.1 |
| 11 | 0.32 | Cory Lidle | 183 | 1.8 |
| 12 | 0.34 | Robert Rohrbaugh | 0 | 0.0 |
| 13 | 0.34 | Mike Bovee | 3 | 0.0 |
| 14 | 0.35 | Jason Stanford | 61 | 1.1 |
| 15 | 0.36 | Kyle Lobstein* | 87 | 0.9 |
| 16 | 0.39 | Chien-Ming Wang | 628 | 10.6 |
| 17 | 0.40 | Andy Van Hekken | 30 | 0.5 |
| 18 | 0.43 | Brian Flynn* | 25 | 0.0 |
| 19 | 0.46 | Jason Olsen | 0 | 0.0 |
| 20 | 0.47 | Jon Ratliff | 1 | 0.0 |
*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Thanks for putting these together for each trade, I really enjoy looking at these projections.
In terms of the comps for each player, I was just wondering if you could talk about how we should interpret the distance? While we see the same number of comps for both Fulmer and Cessa, Cessa’s comps have a distance ranging from .11 to .47 while Fulmer’s range is much larger than this and only has 3 players within that same distance as Cessa!
Glad you’ve enjoyed them! For each player, I’d recommend comparing the Mah Dist figures to those of his other comps, but not necessarily to other player’s comps. Fulmer has larger distances simply because he doesn’t look like most Double-A players. In this case, that’s because few 22-year-olds have good strikeout and homerun numbers. But being different isn’t always the same thing as being good.
I like the deal from both sides. Cespedes is a big upgrade offensively and defensively for the Mets and they dealt from an area of strength so they probably won’t miss Fulmer or Cessa too much. From the Tigers perspective they got a potential young mid rotation starter that they desperately need and a wild card for a rental player. Win Win if you ask me.
One interesting thing you didn’t bring up is that Cessa’s had a sudden velocity jump this year. If he figures out his curveball, he could be a very good MLB starter.
Hmm, OK. That’s not quite as rosy as some people on Fulmer. Sounds like a guy just having a big year, maybe eventually a 5th starter or bullpen arm.
Need 5th starters and bull pen arms too..for a guy who was gone in two months with no potential for a draft pick I’ll take it.
Who needs a bullpen arm more than the Mets ? Parnell and the Torres aren’t going to be the lockdown 7th inning guy that a Herrera is.
Fulmer is leading all of AA in ERA, he’s no slouch. Cespedes is bringing the Mets nothing, because they are not winning the world series this year.
Confused francis. Why can the mets not win the world series? Yea they are not likely too but there is onyl one winner so what team is likely too? All they have to do is make the playoffs and with their pitching they are a very dangerous team. Very much like the giants and in those situations cespedes bat could be HUGE. Oh and cespedes is bringing a lot of energy and exitement which does count in Met fan excitement and attendance. If the ball park gets 40K+ for the next 2 months not only will that bring in extra $$$ but it will show the coupons that if they spend a little they will make even more. Hence could encourage them to sign cespedes or even a J upton.
Projecting Yoenis Cespedes in Queens:
6 HRs, a couple of them crazy long. Throws out some guy from 325 feet, a web gem that is shown for half a week.
The Mets still don’t make the playoffs this year and watch Fulmer kick it for Detroit or some other team for the next 5 years.
You really just can’t stop whining and let this go, can you? Your team has done something to improve it by a fair bit and you seem to be suggesting they instead had just given up on the season.
Lighten up, Francis
Someone is just a hater. Cespedes bat could be HUGE. Oh and cespedes is bringing a lot of energy and exitement which does count in Met fan excitement and attendance. If the ball park gets 40K+ for the next 2 months not only will that bring in extra $$$ but it will show the coupons that if they spend a little they will make even more. Hence could encourage them to sign cespedes or even a J upton.
Oh and as far as fullmer when you have a rotation of
1.Harvey
2.Degrom
3.Syndergaard
4.Matz
5.Wheeler
for the next 5 years he would not even sniff a spot. And if there was an injury who said he will even be better then montero.
Stop crying because your teams pitching is GARBAGE LOLOLOL
Just a heads up, Ted Lilly did play his age 28 season. He was selected to the All Star game in 2004 representing the Blue Jays.
Thank you, Chris! I’m new here, but I appreciate your insight. Two questions I have been quite curious about, if you can pass on your observations:
1. I was unhappy when the Wheeler & Flores for C Gomez deal was announced. As a Met fan, I preferred the Cespedes deal. Do you also think the Mets were better off this way?
2. One development that has confused me, but happily so, is that the recent Met pitchibng prospects have OUTperformed expectations upon reaching the majors, specidically Harvey and deGrom. Is that b/c AAA Las Vegas is the Colorado of the minors? Or because of the dimensions of Citi? (E.g. see Syndergaard’s home/road splits this year.) Is Dan Warthen a brilliant pitching coach? And does that affect your ho-hum expectations for Fullmer at all? Obviously, he hasn’t pitched in Vegas or Citi.
Thank you, Chris! Keep it up.