Projecting the Prospects in the Dee Gordon Trade

At long last, the hot stove appears to be heating up. In something of a surprise move, the Mariners have swung a trade with the Marlins to acquire both (a) Dee Gordon, who will apparently play center field for Seattle, and (b) $1 million in international slot money. In exchange, the Marlins receive three lower-tier prospects: righties Robert Dugger and Nick Neidert, plus infielder Chris Torres.

Below are the KATOH projections for the players received by Miami. WAR figures account for each player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings. In total, my KATOH system (both stats-only and KATOH+) projects this trio for 3.6 WAR over their first six years in the majors.

*****

Nick Neidert, RHP (Profile)

KATOH: 2.2 WAR
KATOH+: 2.7 WAR

Seattle took Neidert in the second round out of high school back in 2015, and he promptly began mowing down low-minors hitters. Neidert opened 2017 as a 20-year-old in High-A, where he pitched excellently — his strikeout rate, walk rate, ERA, and xFIP were all top-five in the Cal League among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Neidert’s performance cratered following a late-season promotion to Double-A, but his body of work is impressive. He rarely walks anyone and has shown an ability to miss bats against much older competition.

Eric Longenhagen called Neidert a future No. 4 starter and slapped a 50 FV on him.

*****

Chris Torres, SS (Profile)

KATOH: 0.9 WAR
KATOH+: 0.7 WAR

Torres spent most of the 2017 season in the Northwest League, where he hit a passable .238/.324/.435 as a 19-year-old shortstop. Torres’s appeal is obvious — he’s a teenaged shortstop who’s already hitting for power — but his profile is also drenched with risk. Not only is he eons from the big leagues, but he struck out 30% of the time against pitchers who are also eons from the big leagues. He’s also under 6-foot, which KATOH doesn’t like coming from a guy that far from the majors.

*****

Robert Dugger, RHP (Profile)

KATOH: 0.5 WAR
KATOH+: 0.2 WAR

An 18th-round pick in 2016, Dugger pitched quite well between two levels of A-ball last year, posting a 2.75 ERA on the strength of a 25% strikeout rate. KATOH isn’t terribly impressed, though, as the prognosis for 22-year-old A-ball swingmen isn’t great — even when their numbers are solid. Perhaps Dugger will pitch in the majors someday, but there is little reason to think he’ll have a fruitful career.