Projecting the Prospects in the Hamels Trade

What a time to be alive. In a span of hours, Carlos Gomez was almost traded to the Mets; Wilmer Flores cried on the field; and the Dodgers, Braves and Marlins all but completed a deal that seemingly involves dozens of players. But most exciting of all, Cole Hamels is heading to the Rangers in an eight-player deal that also includes Jake Diekman, Matt Harrison, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, Jake Thompson, Jerad Eickhoff and Alec Asher. Here’s what my fancy computer math has to say about the five prospects headed to Philly in the trade.

Nick Williams

Prior to this year, Williams relied mostly on his raw tools at the plate. He hit for plenty of power in A-Ball, but his horrendous plate discipline lead many to question whether he’d be able to survive at the highest level. From 2012 to 2014, the toolsy outfielder posted strikeout and walk rates of 27% and 4%, respectively.

This year, though, things have been different. In 96 Double-A games, Williams has slashed his strikeout rate to 19%, while raising his walk rate to 8% — both roughly average for a hitter in the Texas League. Most impressively, he’s sacrificed very little power in making these improvements. His .180 ISO and .347 BABIP are both in line with what he’s done in prior years, which is to say he’s still hitting the ball with plenty of authority.

However, despite his above-average speed, Williams does not appear to be a particularly good defender in the outfield. According to Baseball Prospectus’ numbers, he’s been a below-average defender (FRAA + positional adjustment) in each of his four years as a pro.

KATOH likes Williams a lot. His 2015 numbers earn him a KATOH projection of 6.2 WAR through age 28, which would have placed him 43rd on KATOH’s preseason list. Heading into the year, he received a projection of 4.6 WAR. Williams’ statistical comps look even more excellent. Plenty of very successful outfielders in the bunch.

Rank	Mah Dist	Pitcher	PA thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.34	Juan Encarnacion	3,627	5.5
2	1.06	Kyle Blanks*	933	3.7
3	1.06	Travis d’Arnaud*	610	2.0
4	1.47	Todd Walker	2,320	2.2
5	1.48	Jermaine Dye	3,401	10.3
6	1.49	Brett Lawrie*	1,802	8.7
7	1.53	German Duran	158	0.0
8	1.58	Grady Sizemore	4,047	30.2
9	1.58	Justin Morneau	3,601	14.6
10	1.62	Corey Hart	2,629	8.6
11	1.67	Rondell White	3,095	20.0
12	1.68	Derrick Gibson	52	0.2
13	1.70	Daryle Ward	1,286	0.0
14	1.73	John Bowker	622	0.0
15	1.75	Elliot Johnson	531	0.6
16	1.79	Alex Gonzalez	3,634	8.0
17	1.81	Bobby Abreu	3,554	30.8
18	1.81	Russ Davis	1,319	0.9
19	1.93	Rene Tosoni*	189	0.0
20	1.94	Kirk Nieuwenhuis*	659	2.5

*Hitters who have yet to play their age-28 season.

*****

Jorge Alfaro

Alfaro’s spent all of 2015 at the Double-A level, where he’s hit .253/.314/.432 as a catcher. Alfaro hits for a decent amount of power, as evidenced by his .179 ISO, but his other offensive skills are still works in progress. In particular, his strikeout rate (30%) and walk rate (4%) have both been well worse than average this year. Alfaro’s strikeout and walk numbers have always left something to be desired, but they were much more reasonable in A-Ball the last couple of years.

KATOH is very down on Alfaro, forecasting him for just 0.9 WAR through age 28, which is down from 2.1 WAR in the preseason. A 30% strikeout rate with only modest power isn’t a great combo. It’s worth noting, however, that the current KATOH model doesn’t directly account for a player’s defensive position, which conspires to underrate catchers a bit. Alfaro’s top Mahalanobis comps also don’t paint a very encouraging picture for the 22-year-old’s future. Other than Ty Wiggington, none of the players who performed most similarly to Alfaro in Double-A became successful big leaguers.

Rank	Mah Dist	Hitter	PA thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.49	Darren Blakely	0	0.0
2	0.75	Jason Smith	414	0.0
3	0.77	Craig Paquette	1,492	0.0
4	0.84	Yamil Benitez	481	0.0
5	0.93	Kevin Roberson	345	0.0
6	1.02	Edwin Diaz	15	0.0
7	1.04	Todd Landry	0	0.0
8	1.20	Willy Garcia*	0	0.0
9	1.32	Ty Wigginton	1,962	1.8
10	1.38	Todd Dunwoody	986	0.0
11	1.40	Collin DeLome	0	0.0
12	1.50	Luis Saturria	11	0.0
13	1.57	Richie Robnett	0	0.0
14	1.57	Ryan Roberson	0	0.0
15	1.65	Brandon Larson	332	0.0
16	1.69	Zoilo Almonte*	149	0.0
17	1.77	Mitch Einertson	0	0.0
18	1.79	Brandon Short*	0	0.0
19	1.83	Shane Monahan	238	0.0
20	1.91	John Shelby	0	0.0

*Hitters who have yet to play their age-28 season.

*****

Jake Thompson

Thompson, 21, was the Tigers second-round pick in 2012, and was dealt to the Rangers last summer in the Joakim Soria trade. He’s pitched exclusively in Double-A this year, where he’s put up an unimpressive 4.72 ERA, but a more promising 3.80 FIP. His strikeout and walk numbers have been on par with the Texas League averages. Of some concern is that Thompson’s strikeout rates have steadily declined as he’s climbed the minor-league ladder.

KATOH forecasts Thompson for 2.9 WAR through age 28, which would have placed him 172nd on KATOH’s preseason list. This is a big step down from his 4.5 WAR (76th best) forecast in the preseason. The primary culprit for this drop-off is his decreased strikeout rate. Check out his Mahalanobis comps:

Rank	Mah Dist	Pitcher	IP thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.20	Allen Webster*	108	0.0
2	0.22	Adalberto Mejia*	0	0.0
3	0.36	Tyler Herron*	0	0.0
4	0.36	Ryan Ketchner	0	0.0
5	0.47	Darrell Goedhart	0	0.0
6	0.47	Michael Bowden*	133	0.1
7	0.47	Dan Perkins	86	0.0
8	0.55	Jameson Taillon*	0	0.0
9	0.56	Jason Adam*	0	0.0
10	0.67	Shane Loux	60	0.0
11	0.69	Blake Wood	127	0.0
12	0.72	Matt Morris	982	20.3
13	0.73	John Snyder	342	2.3
14	0.76	Jason Olsen	0	0.0
15	0.78	Jason Adam*	0	0.0
16	0.86	Bobby Parnell	306	4.2
17	0.86	Neal Musser	25	0.0
18	0.86	Ryan Feierabend	113	0.0
19	0.88	J.D. Durbin	72	0.3
20	0.91	Bronson Arroyo	588	7.4

*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.

*****

Jerad Eickhoff

Eickoff doesn’t offer much in terms of upside, but the 25-year-old is nearly ready for the big leagues. Or as ready as he’ll ever be, at least. In 97 innings at the Triple-A level this year, Eickoff has pitched to an unimpressive 4.47 ERA and an equally unimpressive 4.50 FIP. His strikeout rate (22%) and walk rate (8%) have both been roughly league average, but he’s had a bit of trouble keeping the ball in the park. The former 15th-round pick performed similarly in Double-A last year.

KATOH projects Eickoff for a mere 1.7 WAR through age 28, which isn’t much different than his 1.4 WAR forecast from the preseason. The comps:

Rank	Mah Dist	Pitcher	IP thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.07	Cody Martin*	21	0.0
2	0.32	Scott Barnes*	27	0.0
3	0.48	Rick VandenHurk	184	0.2
4	0.52	Chris Schwinden*	29	0.1
5	0.53	Russ Ortiz	924	10.8
6	0.57	Wilton Chavez	#N/A	0.0
7	0.60	Brad Mills	53	0.0
8	0.66	Carlos Carrasco*	490	7.2
9	0.66	Bruce Billings	11	0.0
10	0.67	Ryan Jensen	227	0.8
11	0.70	John Patterson	423	6.5
12	0.73	Boone Whiting*	#N/A	0.0
13	0.76	Wade Davis	666	9.0
14	0.76	Matt Harvey*	363	9.5
15	0.77	Nelson Figueroa	197	0.2
16	0.79	Mike Minor*	652	7.5
17	0.79	Homer Bailey	998	13.2
18	0.80	Tom Fordham	65	0.0
19	0.82	Shad Williams	29	0.0
20	0.83	Matt Andriese*	46	0.0

*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.

*****

Alec Asher

Much like Eickoff, Asher is a low-upside arm who’s been more bad than good in Triple-A. Asher started the year at the Double-A level, where he recorded a solid 3.57 FIP in eight starts. However, following a May promotion to Triple-A, his FIP ballooned to 6.03, largely due to his 16 homers allowed over 12 starts.

KATOH pegs Asher for a minuscule 1.5 WAR through age 28, which is a tick lower than his 1.8 mark from the preseason. Lance Lynn is Asher’s top Mahalanobis comp, but the names look pretty ugly after him.

Rank	Mah Dist	Pitcher	IP thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.22	Lance Lynn*	732	13.4
2	0.27	Rick Kirsten	0	0.0
3	0.32	Jake Brigham*	0	0.0
4	0.35	Sean Thompson	0	0.0
5	0.38	Josh Habel	0	0.0
6	0.38	Paul Mildren	0	0.0
7	0.42	Travis Chick	5	0.0
8	0.44	Michael Wuertz	217	2.4
9	0.51	Brian Sikorski	37	0.0
10	0.51	Mike Bynum	64	0.0
11	0.56	Nick Additon*	0	0.0
12	0.57	Todd Belitz	12	0.0
13	0.58	Brad Mills*	53	0.0
14	0.60	Javier De La Hoya	0	0.0
15	0.62	Mike Judd	75	0.0
16	0.68	Mike Riley	0	0.0
17	0.74	Ryan Ketchner	0	0.0
18	0.76	Wilton Chavez	0	0.0
19	0.83	Paul Fletcher	13	0.0
20	0.83	Darrell Goedhart	0	0.0

*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 season.