Projecting Yesterday’s Rule 5 Selections
The 2015 Rule 5 draft has come and gone. A total of 16 players were selected in the major league portion of the event. In what follows, I take a look at what KATOH has to say about the players selected. The players are listed in the order they were selected in yesterday’s draft. Projections have been produced based both on 2015 and also 2014 minor-league stats.
Tyler Goeddel, OF (Profile)
New Team: Philadelphia
Old Team: Tampa Bay
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.9 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.5 WAR
Goedel was one of the players I profiled in my Rule 5 preview. He transitioned from third base to the outfield in 2015, and he took a step forward offensively as well. He hit a strong .279/.350/.443 in Double-A and also kicked in 28 steals. Goeddel’s had some trouble making contact in the past, but his combination of power and speed is intriguing. Hitters who both possess that skill set and have already succeeded in Double-A don’t grow on trees. He may not be quite ready for the show going by the numbers, but is close enough that he probably won’t embarrass himself. And at 23, there’s still room for him to improve. The Phillies won’t be winning many games in 2016, so Goeddel is exactly the type of player on whom they should by taking fliers. Maybe they’ll catch lightning in a bottle like they did with last year’s Rule 5 pick, Odubel Herrera.
*****
Jake Cave, OF (Profile)
New Team: Cincinnati
Old Team: New York (AL)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 1.3 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.7 WAR
Unlike Goeddel, Cave had a down year at the plate in 2015. He hit just .269/.330/.345 at the Double-A level before capping things off with a huge week in Triple-A. Cave strikes out nearly 20% of the time, which is a concerning clip for someone who doesn’t hit for much power. Cave has plus speed, which will play well in a reserve outfielder role, but it doesn’t seem as though he’s ready to hit big league pitching. It’s worth noting that he hit .326/.378/.450 from August 1st on, although that run was propped up by a .420 BABIP. His 22% strikeout rate over that span suggests he probably didn’t turn a corner in a meaningful way.
*****
Evan Rutckyj, LHP (Profile)
New Team: Atlanta
Old Team: New York (AL)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 1.0 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.1 WAR
Rutckyj pitched extremely well out of the bullpen between High-A and Double-A last year. He posted a 2.59 ERA and struck out a remarkable 32% of batters faced. Those numbers sound impressive, but keep in mind that just about every organization has a reliever or two with similar numbers in the low minors. Rutckyj is a 6-foot-5 lefty, which helps set him apart from the crowd a bit; but 23-year-old relief aces from A-Ball are a dime a dozen. Still, given the state of the Braves bullpen, it’s easy to see why they’d take a flier here.
*****
Luis Perdomo, RHP (Profile)
New Team: Colorado
Old Team: St. Louis
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 0.9 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.9 WAR
Perdomo split last season between two levels of A-Ball, where he turned in a 3.30 FIP over 127 innings. That’s a solid showing, but nothing to suggest that he’s ready for the big leagues just yet. Yet, despite his mediocre numbers, Perdomo can run it up to 97 mph, so one could easily envision him finding success in the bullpen. Perdomo will be 23 next season, so he was probably running out of chances to start as it was. Perhaps he can pull a Roberto Osuna and make the jump from A-Ball starter to successful reliever.
*****
Colin Walsh, 2B (Profile)
New Team: Milwaukee
Old Team: Oakland
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 0.6 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.1 WAR
Walsh had a really weird — yet successful — season in Double-A last year. Walsh struck out in 21% of his trips to the plate, but walked in another 20%. So he only actually put the ball in play less than 60% of the time. He had success in those instances where he did put in play, as evidenced by his .302/.447/.470 slash line. The catch is that Walsh is 26, which is way, way too old to have spent the last season in Double-A. Walsh offers almost nothing in terms of upside, but his 2015 results suggest he might be able to contribute in some way. In addition to playing second base, he’s also dabbled in left field, so he offers a small amount of position flexibility as well.
*****
Jabari Blash, OF (Profile)
New Team: San Diego (Drafted by Oakland and Traded)
Old Team: Seattle
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): o.6 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.5 WAR
Blash hit .271/.370/.576 and crushed 32 homers in the high minors last year, but did so with an unsightly 26% strikeout rate. There are several good things about Blash: he’s 6-foot-5, has excellent power and runs very well for a guy his size. But these positive characteristics are counteracted with some bad ones: he’s already 26 and he strikes out way too much. It’s always interesting to see how guys like this fair in the show, but unfortunately, they usually don’t succeed. That’s too bad, because I’d really like more excuses to say Jabari Blash’s name out loud.
*****
Joey Rickard, OF (Profile)
New Team: Baltimore
Old Team: Tampa Bay
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 3.8 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.1 WAR
Due to the difficulty of identifying Rule 5 eligible players, I neglected to include Rickard in my Rule 5 preview. But if I had a time machine, I’d go back and make him the first player I mention. The former ninth-round pick had a break-out year in 2015, slashing .321/.427/.447 across three levels of the minors: High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. Rickard doesn’t hit for much power, but does an excellent job of controlling the strike zone: he walked nearly as often as he struck out last year. He also runs well, which should come in handy in the outfield. Rickard was pretty bad in 2014, so it remains to be seen if he sustains his 2015 breakout. But if he does, the Orioles might have hit the jackpot with this pick. Rickard was the only player from KATOH’s top 100 (#98) who was taken in the Rule 5.
*****
Joe Biagini, RHP (Profile)
New Team: Toronto
Old Team: San Francisco
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 0.4 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.1 WAR
A former 26th-round pick, Biagini spent last season as a 25-year-old in Double-A. He pitched to a sparkling 2.42 ERA, but his 3.35 FIP was a bit more ordinary. Furthermore, his 16% strikeout rate suggests he doesn’t miss many bats. Biagini’s a projectable 6-foot-4, but nothing about his statistical profile really stands out. Perhaps the Blue Jays have reason to believe his stuff will play up in the bullpen. KATOH doesn’t see the appeal of Biagini, but KATOH’s also never seen him pitch.
*****
Matt Bowman, RHP (Profile)
New Team: St. Louis
Old Team: New York (NL)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 0.6 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.5 WAR
Bowman had a decent 2014 campaign, but had a really rough go of it at the Triple-A level last year. His strikeout rate plummeted from 22% to 12%, which resulted to an ERA and FIP over 5.00. Bowman’s numbers aren’t particularly compelling, but there’s reason to believe he has more upside than your average 24-year-old. He was primarily a shortstop in his days at Princeton, and didn’t start pitching full-time until the Mets drafted him in 2012, so he has a relatively fresh arm. In last winter’s writeup, Kiley McDaniel noted that “everything may play better in short stints” for Bowman. The Cardinals seem to agree.
*****
Ji-Man Choi, 1B (Profile)
New Team: Los Angeles (AL)
Old Team: Baltimore
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): NA
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 2.2 WAR
KATOH liked Choi a good deal heading into the 2015 season, but he sat out most of the year after he broke his leg in spring training. Choi returned to action in mid-August and hit an impressive .298/.403/.421 for the Mariners Triple-A affiliate. He signed a minor league contract with the Orioles this winter, but was eligible for the Rule 5 since he wasn’t on their 40-man roster. Choi’s dabbled in left field, but has otherwise played exclusively first base, so all of his value is tied to his bat.
*****
I’m grouping the last six relievers into one paragraph since they’re all very similar from a statistical standpoint. None pitched particularly well last year, but each has redeeming qualities that suggest he might make for a useful bullpen piece. One or two of these guys will probably stick all year and pitch well out of the bullpen. Which one or two? That’s really anyone’s guess. Like the rest of the baseball universe, KATOH isn’t particularly good at predicting random reliever breakouts.
| Name | New Team | Old Team | 2014 KATOH | 2015 KATOH |
| Josh Martin | San Diego | Cleveland | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Deolis Guerra | Los Angeles (AL) | Pittsburgh | 0.7 | NA |
| Daniel Stumpf | Philadelphia | Kansas City | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Chris O’Grady | Cincinnati | Los Angeles (AL) | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Zack Jones | Milwaukee | Minnesota | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| Blake Smith | San Diego | Chicago (AL) | 0.1 | 0.5 |
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
You linked the wrong Zach Jones for the Brewers second pick. This is the player they got: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa502134&position=P
Good catch, thanks. That happens a lot to guys with generic names.
Cave was such a reach. What a bad pick.
Isn’t the worst-case scenario for a Rule 5 pick usually that you cut them in the spring and pay $25k?
The money is pretty much meaningless and is only there so teams don’t just mess around for no reason. The real opportunity cost is the player they didn’t select (I say this having no idea if Cave or anyone they didn’t pick are any good).
The roster spot is already locked up, so the worst case is you’re effectively stuck with a 24-man roster for five months.
There’s rarely a good pick in the Rule 5 draft. This isn’t the normal draft; they’re almost all bad picks, some just a little worse than others. The guys worth having are protected. Occasionally you see someone emerge to take a real roster spot (usually a bullpen arm) but most of them go nowhere. You have to be a bit of a baseball obsessive to even know the Rule 5 draft exists, and beyond that to know any of the guys actually picked; to actually care about it (unless you actually work in the sport) is kind of insane.
Unless you happen to be a fairly serious fan of (for example) both the Brewers and the A’s, as I am. To me it seems like these two teams have used the Rule 5 draft a lot in recent years. Or I’m just a transaction junkie, which may explain why I’m commenting on FanGraphs in December in the first place.
Mark Canha.
One of the best A’s last year.
Delino DeShields and Udebel Herrera would also suggest the Rule 5 is worth a pick.
I’m extremely excited about Joey Rickard and the Rays website is furious he wasn’t protected.
There are always a few Rule 5’s who stick, and there’s even the rare UFO type Deshields pick who provides some real value for a season, but the overwhelming majority of picks will be returned by the end of Spring Training, a few will make it into the season and will then be returned, and a smaller few will stick for the required year, although be pretty valueless. Finally there is the very rare one that provides value. Canha and Deshields and Herrera fell into that group last year, marking one of the more “successful” Rule 5 hauls in recent years. Hoping for a repeat? Sure, why not, but odds aren’t with you. Hoping your team’s Rule 5 selection is going to make a difference then you’re in for disappointment. And if you’re furious your team let a player get drafted, rest easy. Even if you don’t get him back, it really won’t matter.
Now that I’ve dumped all over Rule 5s, I’m quite sure Choi will help the Angels!
HE has the tools to be useful, and has projection left on him. He was clearly a guy taken for tools rather than any break out or statistics he has put up.
Personally, I think it was a solid pick up if they think they can use a 4th OF with speed and a limited bat right now.
Any thoughts on Acosta, the Astros’ selection?
He had good K%’s in the minors before he went to Mexico last year, which is mildly encouraging. Minor League Rule 5 guys rarely turn into anything, so I’d expect the same from Acosta.
“he Phillies won’t be winning many games in 2016”
You’re sure about that?
Did you know that Philadelphia was the fourth largest market in the USA?
Did you know the Phillies have begun a $6 BILLION TV Deal with Comcast?
Why is Yoan Moncada in the Red Sox organization? Boston is a smaller market than Philly. The Phillies are the third richest team in MLB behind the Yankees and Dodgers.
Why do the Phillies look like an expansion team heading into their second season?
Google: Kevin Maitan FREE_AEC
or just click “Palm Beach Mansion”
for the answers to everything related to the Phillies.
Hey, sport, why don’t you take a chill pill, and do it somewhere else? You’re a jerk. Look for readership somewhere else.
I want to hear about how the Padres took 25% of the players in the draft.
Blash is a 6’5″ guy that runs well for a guy “his size”? Really? Is he fat? Because if he’s not, I’d expect his height is likely positively correlated with speed. I think 6’5″ Usain Bolt (aka “world’s fastest human”) would help make that point.
Tall guys are fast.
Uhhh… are you new to watching sports?
Usain Bolt is an outlier. Notice how the world’s 2nd thru 8th fastest humans are much shorter than him? You don’t see a lot of 6’5″ burners.
The fastest guys are usually 5’8″ to 6’0″. Extra height is typically not an advantage when it comes to speed. Look at your fastest running backs or best basestealers. Billy Hamilton is 6’0″. Dee Gordon is 5’11”. Ricky Henderson is 5’10”.
Using your logic, Jose Altuve should be one of MLB’s slowest baserunners and Giancarlo Stanton should be one of the fastest…
No mention of the inexplicable Kurt Spomer pick by Detroit?
Never mind, he’s a AAA pick. I could’ve sworn he was in the major league portion.
If Blash’s K rate is unsightly, what does that make Joey Gallo?