Prospect Watch: A Statistical Report on 2013’s First Rounders
The last time he was permitted to participate in this daily Watch of baseball Prospects, the author submitted a statistical report on the most recent collection of first-round draft picks — which report revealed, among other stirring truth, that Cubs draftee Kyle Schwarber was meting out much in the way of Baseball Justice on minor-league pitchers.
What follows is almost the same exact exercise as that one from three weeks ago, except applied to last year’s first-round picks instead. As in the case of that first post, what I’ve done here is to produce a pair of leaderboards (one for batters; one, pitchers) of the relevant first-rounders. Links to the relevant FanGraphs leaderboards are available here: Batters / Pitchers.
Leaderboard: 2013 First-Round Batters
Here are all the last year’s first-round batters to have recorded at least a single plate appearance in 2014, sorted by Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA):
| # | Player | Team | Pick | Age | Pos | PA | BB% | K% | HR | BABIP | wRC+ | wRAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kris Bryant | Cubs (AA/AAA) | 2 | 22 | 3B | 448 | 13.4% | 26.8% | 33 | .417 | 198 | 52.4 |
| 2 | Aaron Judge | Yankees (A/A+) | 32 | 22 | OF | 430 | 14.4% | 21.9% | 13 | .395 | 158 | 30.3 |
| 3 | D.J. Peterson | Mariners (A+/AA) | 12 | 22 | 3B | 411 | 8.0% | 20.7% | 23 | .358 | 150 | 26.9 |
| 4 | Hunter Renfroe | Padres (A+/AA) | 13 | 22 | OF | 426 | 8.7% | 24.2% | 20 | .332 | 128 | 16.1 |
| 5 | J.P. Crawford | Phillies (A/A+) | 16 | 19 | SS | 411 | 12.9% | 14.1% | 7 | .332 | 128 | 13.7 |
| 6 | Hunter Dozier | Royals (A+/AA) | 8 | 22 | SS | 409 | 11.5% | 23.2% | 7 | .349 | 118 | 9.0 |
| 7 | Clint Frazier | Indians (A) | 5 | 19 | OF | 389 | 10.0% | 28.5% | 11 | .360 | 119 | 8.7 |
| 8 | Travis Demeritte | Rangers (A) | 30 | 19 | SS | 361 | 10.8% | 33.8% | 20 | .292 | 119 | 8.5 |
| 9 | Eric Jagielo | Yankees (R/A+) | 26 | 22 | 3B | 252 | 9.5% | 22.6% | 13 | .266 | 125 | 7.1 |
| 10 | Tim Anderson | White Sox (A+) | 17 | 21 | SS | 300 | 2.3% | 22.7% | 6 | .369 | 119 | 6.8 |
| 11 | Colin Moran | Marlins (A+) | 6 | 21 | 3B | 380 | 7.1% | 13.4% | 4 | .332 | 110 | 4.2 |
| 12 | Austin Meadows | Pirates (R/A) | 9 | 19 | OF | 76 | 9.2% | 11.8% | 0 | .383 | 136 | 3.3 |
| 13 | Billy McKinney | A’s/Cubs (A+) | 24 | 19 | OF | 420 | 11.2% | 17.6% | 11 | .288 | 105 | 1.6 |
| 14 | Dominic Smith | Mets (A) | 11 | 19 | 1B | 404 | 8.9% | 15.1% | 0 | .341 | 97 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Phillip Ervin | Reds (A) | 27 | 21 | OF | 425 | 8.9% | 18.8% | 5 | .276 | 93 | -3.5 |
| 16 | Nick Ciuffo | Rays (R) | 21 | 19 | C | 116 | 9.5% | 21.6% | 1 | .269 | 70 | -4.3 |
| 17 | Christian Arroyo | Giants (A-/A) | 25 | 19 | SS | 276 | 5.4% | 14.1% | 3 | .292 | 80 | -6.8 |
| 18 | Reese McGuire | Pirates (A) | 14 | 19 | C | 322 | 6.2% | 9.9% | 1 | .288 | 75 | -9.8 |
Leaderboard: 2013 First-Round Pitchers
Here are all the first-round pitchers to have recorded an appearance of some sort — sorted, in this case, by kwERA, an ERA estimator that accounts for strikeout and walk rate:
| # | Player | Team | Pick | Age | Hand | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | kwERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hunter Harvey | Orioles (A) | 22 | 19 | RHP | 87.2 | 10.9 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 3.51 | 3.00 |
| 2 | Ian Clarkin | Yankees (A) | 33 | 19 | LHP | 65.0 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 3.79 | 3.14 |
| 3 | Marco Gonzales | Cards (A+/AA/AAA/MLB) | 19 | 22 | LHP | 91.2 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 3.04 | 3.16 |
| 4 | Braden Shipley | D-backs (A/A+) | 15 | 22 | RHP | 99.0 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 3.85 | 3.40 |
| 5 | Jon Gray | Rockies (AA) | 3 | 22 | RHP | 105.0 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 3.33 | 3.58 |
| 6 | Ryne Stanek | Rays (A/A+) | 29 | 22 | RHP | 55.2 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 3.16 | 3.76 |
| 7 | Mark Appel | Astros (A+) | 1 | 22 | RHP | 44.1 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 5.33 | 3.80 |
| 8 | Rob Kaminsky | Cardinals (A) | 28 | 19 | LHP | 72.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 3.28 | 4.07 |
| 9 | Chi-Chi Gonzalez | Rangers (A+/AA) | 23 | 22 | RHP | 103.2 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 3.34 | 4.09 |
| 10 | Chris Anderson | Dodgers (A+) | 18 | 21 | RHP | 96.2 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 4.94 | 4.14 |
| 11 | Kohl Stewart | Twins (A) | 4 | 19 | RHP | 81.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 3.66 | 4.15 |
| 12 | Trey Ball | Red Sox (A) | 7 | 20 | LHP | 68.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 4.60 | 4.49 |
| 13 | Jonathon Crawford | Tigers (A) | 20 | 22 | RHP | 90.1 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 3.91 | 4.51 |
| 14 | Jason Hursh | Braves (AA) | 31 | 22 | RHP | 120.1 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 3.63 | 4.79 |
Moderately Helpful Notes
Here are five notes, offering varying degrees of insight:
- Omitted from the above is Phil Bickford, which right-handed prospect was selected 10th overall but ultimately decided to matriculate at Cal State Fullerton.
- Positions listed are those at which relevant prospect was drafted, not necessarily that which he’s playing now.
- Among 2013 first-round batters, Cubs third-base prospect Kris Bryant has produced the most successful 2014 season by weighted runs — a figure, that, largely aided by his 33 home runs and .400-plus BABIP.
- Among pitchers, the question of which has produced the most impressive season has a less clear answer. One notes, however, that, with the exception of some difficult major-league appearances, that St. Louis left-hander Marco Gonzales has sustained his impressive strikeout and walk rates across multiple levels.
- Baseball America’s draft database has been of some assistance to the composition of this post.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Thanks Carson. How detrimental will Bryant’s K rate be in the majors? Can you see him failing as a major league regular starter?