Prospect Watch: A Statistical Report on 2013’s First Rounders

by
July 29, 2014

The last time he was permitted to participate in this daily Watch of baseball Prospects, the author submitted a statistical report on the most recent collection of first-round draft picks — which report revealed, among other stirring truth, that Cubs draftee Kyle Schwarber was meting out much in the way of Baseball Justice on minor-league pitchers.

What follows is almost the same exact exercise as that one from three weeks ago, except applied to last year’s first-round picks instead. As in the case of that first post, what I’ve done here is to produce a pair of leaderboards (one for batters; one, pitchers) of the relevant first-rounders. Links to the relevant FanGraphs leaderboards are available here: Batters / Pitchers.

Leaderboard: 2013 First-Round Batters
Here are all the last year’s first-round batters to have recorded at least a single plate appearance in 2014, sorted by Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA):

# Player Team Pick Age Pos PA BB% K% HR BABIP wRC+ wRAA
1 Kris Bryant Cubs (AA/AAA) 2 22 3B 448 13.4% 26.8% 33 .417 198 52.4
2 Aaron Judge Yankees (A/A+) 32 22 OF 430 14.4% 21.9% 13 .395 158 30.3
3 D.J. Peterson Mariners (A+/AA) 12 22 3B 411 8.0% 20.7% 23 .358 150 26.9
4 Hunter Renfroe Padres (A+/AA) 13 22 OF 426 8.7% 24.2% 20 .332 128 16.1
5 J.P. Crawford Phillies (A/A+) 16 19 SS 411 12.9% 14.1% 7 .332 128 13.7
6 Hunter Dozier Royals (A+/AA) 8 22 SS 409 11.5% 23.2% 7 .349 118 9.0
7 Clint Frazier Indians (A) 5 19 OF 389 10.0% 28.5% 11 .360 119 8.7
8 Travis Demeritte Rangers (A) 30 19 SS 361 10.8% 33.8% 20 .292 119 8.5
9 Eric Jagielo Yankees (R/A+) 26 22 3B 252 9.5% 22.6% 13 .266 125 7.1
10 Tim Anderson White Sox (A+) 17 21 SS 300 2.3% 22.7% 6 .369 119 6.8
11 Colin Moran Marlins (A+) 6 21 3B 380 7.1% 13.4% 4 .332 110 4.2
12 Austin Meadows Pirates (R/A) 9 19 OF 76 9.2% 11.8% 0 .383 136 3.3
13 Billy McKinney A’s/Cubs (A+) 24 19 OF 420 11.2% 17.6% 11 .288 105 1.6
14 Dominic Smith Mets (A) 11 19 1B 404 8.9% 15.1% 0 .341 97 -1.4
15 Phillip Ervin Reds (A) 27 21 OF 425 8.9% 18.8% 5 .276 93 -3.5
16 Nick Ciuffo Rays (R) 21 19 C 116 9.5% 21.6% 1 .269 70 -4.3
17 Christian Arroyo Giants (A-/A) 25 19 SS 276 5.4% 14.1% 3 .292 80 -6.8
18 Reese McGuire Pirates (A) 14 19 C 322 6.2% 9.9% 1 .288 75 -9.8

Leaderboard: 2013 First-Round Pitchers
Here are all the first-round pitchers to have recorded an appearance of some sort — sorted, in this case, by kwERA, an ERA estimator that accounts for strikeout and walk rate:

# Player Team Pick Age Hand IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP kwERA
1 Hunter Harvey Orioles (A) 22 19 RHP 87.2 10.9 3.4 0.5 3.51 3.00
2 Ian Clarkin Yankees (A) 33 19 LHP 65.0 9.7 2.8 0.8 3.79 3.14
3 Marco Gonzales Cards (A+/AA/AAA/MLB) 19 22 LHP 91.2 9.2 2.3 0.7 3.04 3.16
4 Braden Shipley D-backs (A/A+) 15 22 RHP 99.0 9.1 2.8 0.7 3.85 3.40
5 Jon Gray Rockies (AA) 3 22 RHP 105.0 8.2 2.7 0.8 3.33 3.58
6 Ryne Stanek Rays (A/A+) 29 22 RHP 55.2 7.9 2.8 0.3 3.16 3.76
7 Mark Appel Astros (A+) 1 22 RHP 44.1 8.1 2.2 1.8 5.33 3.80
8 Rob Kaminsky Cardinals (A) 28 19 LHP 72.0 6.9 2.9 0.1 3.28 4.07
9 Chi-Chi Gonzalez Rangers (A+/AA) 23 22 RHP 103.2 6.9 2.7 0.3 3.34 4.09
10 Chris Anderson Dodgers (A+) 18 21 RHP 96.2 9.5 5.2 0.9 4.94 4.14
11 Kohl Stewart Twins (A) 4 19 RHP 81.2 6.4 2.5 0.3 3.66 4.15
12 Trey Ball Red Sox (A) 7 20 LHP 68.1 6.3 3.2 0.8 4.60 4.49
13 Jonathon Crawford Tigers (A) 20 22 RHP 90.1 6.1 3.4 0.3 3.91 4.51
14 Jason Hursh Braves (AA) 31 22 RHP 120.1 4.6 2.8 0.3 3.63 4.79

Moderately Helpful Notes
Here are five notes, offering varying degrees of insight:

  • Omitted from the above is Phil Bickford, which right-handed prospect was selected 10th overall but ultimately decided to matriculate at Cal State Fullerton.
  • Positions listed are those at which relevant prospect was drafted, not necessarily that which he’s playing now.
  • Among 2013 first-round batters, Cubs third-base prospect Kris Bryant has produced the most successful 2014 season by weighted runs — a figure, that, largely aided by his 33 home runs and .400-plus BABIP.
  • Among pitchers, the question of which has produced the most impressive season has a less clear answer. One notes, however, that, with the exception of some difficult major-league appearances, that St. Louis left-hander Marco Gonzales has sustained his impressive strikeout and walk rates across multiple levels.
  • Baseball America’s draft database has been of some assistance to the composition of this post.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.




 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

4 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Chicago Mark
12 years ago

Thanks Carson. How detrimental will Bryant’s K rate be in the majors? Can you see him failing as a major league regular starter?

0
NYM72382
12 years ago

Maybe I am missing something but not really sure how this list is relevant. Your comparing apples to oranges. Take Kris Bryant who is 3+ years older than Dominic Smith. Smith in in A ball and a totally different point in his career. He is playing in Savannah which is one of the worst parks in all of the minor leagues to hit in. Kris Bryant is and has been ready for the show but only stuck in AAA because the cubs are keeping his service time down. Just see no reason why players at different levels, ages, and development stages of there career are compared to each other. 3 years from now if Dominic smith is in AAA then you can compare his numbers to Bryants form this year to make much more sense. But even that will be off as las vegas is a launching pad.

Am I missing something?

0
LaLoosh
12 years ago
Reply to  NYM72382

Yes. RC+ is league and park adjusted so it is a reflection of where a player stands relative to the league average that he’s in. I don’t know if there is a stat that adjusts for age however. Smith is in a league where he is prob 2+ yrs younger than the average, but Bryant is more than 4 yrs younger than the PCL average age.

0
Buns
12 years ago
Reply to  NYM72382

These are lists that put 2013 first rounders’ 2014 results in one convenient location. Draw conclusions as you wish.

2