Random Thoughts
I can’t remember the last time I wrote something that looked like a “notes column”, but today, I have a bunch of thoughts on different subjects, and so that format seems like the best way to cover them all without writing 10,000 words. On to the loosely-related points that are on my mind today.
Crappy News
Yesterday, Mac Thomason – the founder of Braves Journal – announced that his cancer had returned, and it’s spread to the point where surgery to have his tumors removed no longer looks to be a viable option. Given my own ongoing fight against leukemia, this is especially tough to hear, and my thoughts and prayers go out to Mac and his family. His friends and co-authors at Braves Journal are asking you to support Mac in any way you deem best, and I heartily endorse those sentiments.
Fascinating Research
While we’re linking to things, go read this article over at The Hardball Times today by Bojan Koprivica on catcher defense. It’s long and involved, but it’s super interesting, and continues to push forward the analyzation of catcher defense. There’s still a lot more work to be done on the subject, but it’s great to see it being tackled in such a thorough, interesting, and thought-provoking way.
Postseason Data
In looking at some postseason data, it’s interesting how large of an impact home runs have had during the playoffs. During the regular season, the league posted a K/BB ratio of 2.30 and a HR/9 of 0.94, which ended up leading to 4.28 runs being scored per game. During the postseason, the K/BB ratio has actually gone up to 2.58, but HR/9 has spiked to 1.29, a 37 percent increase over the regular season average. Because of the extra long balls, the eight playoff teams have averaged 4.96 runs per game, 16 percent more than teams scored during the season. And, of course, the playoffs have taken place in October, a cold-weather month when we’d typically expect lower than average offensive performance.
Obviously, there are sample size issues at play, but I think we’re also dealing with offenses that are relatively better than the pitching staffs they are facing. Five of the top six teams in regular season wRC+ qualified for the playoffs this year, with the two World Series teams ranking 3rd and 4th respectively. By contrast, only two of the top seven teams in FIP made the playoffs, and the Phillies (#1) went out in the first round. It seems that this year at least, pitching does not win championships.
Don’t Worry About Wilson
Speaking of pitching, C.J. Wilson hasn’t exactly had a banner postseason so far, and there’s been some talk that his free agent price might be going down as his struggles in October continue. However, it’s worth noting that Wilson’s postseason xFIP of 3.86 isn’t that much different from his regular season mark of 3.41, especially when you adjust for quality of opponent. His struggles are almost entirely due to giving up home runs, but I don’t know that anyone should draw many conclusions from a postseason HR/FB rate of 37.5%.
If Wilson’s value is taking a hit in the eyes of teams with money to spend this winter, that may simply make him the rare undervalued starting pitcher on the free agent market – there’s not much of a reason to re-evaluate how good Wilson is based on his October results to date.
The Best Team In Baseball
The playoffs are not setup to ensure that the best team in baseball emerges as World Champion, but while Philadelphia had the best regular season record, I think Texas’ postseason run is helping them make a pretty strong claim on that title for this season. Including their postseason games, the Rangers are now 103-69, giving them a .599 winning percentage overall this year. They also led MLB in WAR this year, coming in at +60.6 during the regular season.
When you factor in the upgrades they made to the roster in July and the fact that Mike Napoli has now become a full-time player, it’s hard to see any other team from any point in 2011 stacking up against what Texas is putting on the field right now. The Cardinals offense is good enough to make the World Series interesting, but the Rangers are rightfully going to be the favorites, and if they win it all, we’ll see a postseason result where the best team really did take home the title.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Also had the best third order record at Baseball Prospectus.
You forgot the fact that The Netherlands beat Cuba in the World Championship final. HONKBAL!
Sidney Ponson puts the team on his back.
Not as difficult as it sounds – that ample back is as big as Siberia…
Dave, speaking of your first note, how goes your own health? I apologize if I am overstepping in asking. Hope all is well!
Things are going as well as could be hoped at this point. I wrote a slightly longer update on USSM on Friday.
http://www.ussmariner.com/2011/10/14/another-quick-update-on-my-health/
Cardinals in 6.
Dave, a quick question.
On Roy Halladay’s player page he has been coded with a SF pitch. Is this correct? I know there has been a lot of talk about his change-up over the past 5 years (in terms of usage/improvement/effectiveness) but I have NEVER heard he was using or developing a split-finger pitch?
Is this coded incorrectly for 2011?
Seems like a big usage (15%) for a brand new pitch.
Well, the split fingered pitch is as often called a change up as a fastball. I’d be more willing to believe that its being lumped into the category of change up by observers, or his change up has split finger movement and straddles the velocity line.
In an effort to be clearer, it could be that his change up simply is a split fingered fastball. Our classification based on grips is kind of arbitrary anyway, Derek Lowe’s throws a pitch that moves like a slider but its thrown like a curve, what do you call that?
True enough. The “vulcan” change is basically a splitter with the two middle fingers.
Just more curious than anything.
It looks like BIS changed their mind on what that pitch was, as they reclassified his CH as an SF this year. I’d agree that the decision seems to be questionable, as I’m pretty sure he throws it with a change-up grip.
Halladay throws a “split-change” (his name for the pitch) which he picked up from pitching coach Rich Dubee and Kyle Kendrick, who picked it up from Justin Lehr, who picked it up from Tim Hudson, etc.
It’s not a classic Roger Craig era splitter and he doesn’t throw it frequently as pitchers did in the 80’s, so health shouldn’t be a concern (knock on wood). Basically, a choke fastball with the fingers splayed enough to absorb velocity, but not so much that the spin differential is obvious to the batter’s eye.
My point being it’s a fricking change up.
More notes:
– Vegas has the Rangers chances of winning the W.S. at 60%
– While ESPN’s park factors are not without their flaws, they do tell a good story as to how each ballpark did allowing runs. Of the eight teams in the playoffs here is how each team’s home ballpark ranked in terms of runs scored.
1. Texas
5. Arizona
6. Yankees
9. Detroit
10. Milwaukee
11. Philadelphia
25. St.Louis
29. Tampa Bay
The higher scoring games in the W.S. are more likely to come from the three games in Texas where tons of runs are usually scored and the pitcher will not be batting. Six of the eight playoff teams ranked well within the upper half of the higher scoring parks. All of the high scoring games the Cardinals played in were on the road in Philadelphia or Milwaukee.
Man that catcher defense stuff is cool. The standard deviation is even higher than for UZR though, so you would probably need 3-4 seasons of data to make a fair evaluation.
(1) I’m glad your treatment is being so effective, I hope it continues.
(2) a change in HR/FB is natural (expected) when the batters change from the entire league to the most productive. Remember the typical number comes from every day batters, by guys like the power section of Detroit’s lineup hit HR/FB at a much higher clip. I’m sure 35% is still too high, but it is not as ridiculous as it looks on the face of it, right?
It’s still pretty ridiculous. The highest HR/FB any hitters sustain over any period of time is about 25%, and that’s from elite sluggers facing a wide variety of pitchers. Even if you adjust for a good pitcher facing a good line-up, you’re probably looking at a “real” HR/FB rate near 10%.
Thanks for the catcher defense link.
Any chance Fangraphs includes pitch framing, ball blocking, and other catcher specific defense on the site? or integrates it into WAR?
We’re always interested in adding good information to the site. I’m sure we’ll be improving our catcher defense data as we go forward, and this is certainly the kind of data we’d be interested in having.
Meh. The Yankees run differential was in a class of its own, 32 runs higher than the Rangers. And the Yankees did that in the MUCH harder division.
Dave: I’m glad to read about your health over on USSM. It sucks about Mac. He’s been added to my prayers.
Well the Yankees didn’t have to face themselves so it isn’t a MUCH harder division.
And the Rangers didn’t have to face themselves. Red Sox and Rays are far beyond anything the West had to offer.