Rangers and Twins Make a Swap Up the Middle

We’d been missing out on those sweet free agent signings during the owner’s lockout, but how about a trade? This one, while not a blockbuster, sends Twins backstop Mitch Garver to the Rangers in exchange for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and prospect Ronny Henriquez per multiple sources, giving both teams extra options at premium positions as they look to become competitive in the near future.

Let’s dive into the headlining players. Garver isn’t a household name, but he has the potential to be one of the league’s best catchers thanks to his identity at the plate: a fly-ball hitter with thunderous bat speed, which is a slam-dunk combination regardless of one’s surroundings. And while I did write about his passive approach in early counts, it’s a minor flaw that doesn’t stop him from putting up top-percentile offensive numbers. Here are the leaders in WAR per 600 plate appearances among catchers since 2019; look who’s near the top:

So what’s holding Garver back? Simply put, injuries. In the midst of a breakout 2019 campaign, he suffered an ankle injury after colliding with Shohei Ohtani at home plate. In ‘20, a right intercostal strain may have contributed to his miserable slump. And just last year, he underwent surgery after a fluke foul tip struck his groin, taking him off the field for nearly two months. The inevitable wear-and-tear at the position has not been kind to Garver, but if he stays healthy, he can go toe-to-toe with the likes of Realmuto and Grandal for most valuable catcher. His bat is just that good.

Meanwhile, Kiner-Falefa is coming off a season that acts as a testament to his durability and value. He proved the projections wrong by excelling at shortstop, a position he had little prior experience with; in addition, he showed that his bat is adequate enough to stick at a starting role. But while Kiner-Falefa seems like the archetypal low-ceiling, high-floor player, the error bars are wider than one might think. Baseball-Reference, which uses DRS in its calculations, pegged him at 3.7 WAR last season. Our site, which uses UZR, had a more pessimistic view: 2.3 WAR. Baseball Savant is outright skeptical of Kiner-Falefa, with his -7 OAA placing him among the worst defenders at short. It’s weird, and we’ll definitely need a much larger sample before deciding one way or the other.

With three differing opinions of his glove, the answer is likely somewhere in the middle, which means the Twins get a perfectly usable shortstop — nothing fancy, but nothing to complain about, either. And it’d be remiss to omit their other return, Henriquez, a short right-hander who most recently logged 69.2 innings in Double-A. You can read Eric Longenhagen’s full report on him here, but to summarize key points: Henriquez’s low release height gives him a distinct advantage, providing a flat approach angle that helps his mid-90s fastball explode up in the zone. Besides the heater, his best secondary offering is a upper-80s split change, followed by a low-80s slurve that added spin rate in 2021 and is reliably thrown for strikes. His unremarkable stature presents relief risk, but he’s on course to be a starter for now.

As for how the trade impacts each team’s roster, there’s good reason to believe Garver’s arrival won’t completely eliminate Jonah Heim’s or Jose Trevino’s playing time. The two are excellent pitch framers, and the Rangers likely have a clear idea of which pitchers they complement. Having an abundance of backstops is never a bad thing, and in the unfortunate case that Garver sustains yet another injury, they’re in decent shape. I don’t know how they’ll address the vacancy at third base, though. A combination of Andy Ibáñez and Yonny Hernandez makes the most sense, but Nick Solak could also lend a helping hand. (If you’re wondering, top prospect Josh Jung recently underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum, which counts him out as a possible option in 2022.)

On the Twins’ side, Kiner-Falefa has shortstop locked down after the departure of Andrelton Simmons via free agency. That also means Jorge Polanco will stick at second base, which is great news for Minnesota; before finalizing this trade, it was depending on Luis Arraez to bounce back and on Jose Miranda to deliver at the big league level, which we’re reminded time and time again isn’t a guarantee even with admirable Triple-A numbers. Ryan Jeffers, whose claim to fame is his raw power, should get time in the limelight in place of Garver. Lastly, Henriquez tracks with the team’s recent penchant for developing starters with low-release, high-spin fastballs, joining a promising cohort that includes Joe Ryan and Josh Winder.

This post-lockout swap won’t drastically move the needle for either team, but it does offer some room for debate. If you’re a strong believer in Garver’s upside and consider Kiner-Falefa a good rather than great defender, the Rangers are the clear winner. If instead you’re wary of Garver’s track record and hold Kiner-Falefa’s trial at shortstop in high regard, the Twins have themselves a good deal. I actually think Minnesota did quite well, but that’s also because I’m generally high on short pitchers with quality fastballs in the mold of Henriquez.

It’s also a bit surprising. Garver is one of the scariest hitters on a per-plate appearance basis, absolutely, but the Rangers coughed up their starting third baseman even without a dire need for another catcher. The Twins, by the same logic, didn’t need to acquire Kiner-Falefa, and one could argue that doing so potentially blocks Miranda. But the downside is minimal for both teams, and they succeed in bolstering their big league roster in meaningful, albeit different ways. All hail the revitalized offseason!