Rangers Sign Lyles, Still Need Bats

The three pitching lines below all belong to Jordan Lyles, who just signed with the Texas Rangers for two years and $16 million:

Now, maybe you’re not surprised that Lyles, 29, signed for $8 million a year. In our Top 50 Free Agents post, where we ranked Lyles 45th, you predicted two years and $12 million for the righty. $12 million isn’t $16 million, to be sure, but it’s in the ballpark. So perhaps you’re not surprised at this deal. I’m a little surprised, though. That’s because I think Lyles’ 2018-19 performance is far more likely to be indicative of his 2020-21 performance than his excellent run for the Brewers at then end of last season, and thought most teams would agree and offer him an accordingly modest deal this winter. The Texas Rangers, apparently, had other plans.

Still, even if the deal is for a little bit more money than I’d expected, it’s hard to argue this contract doesn’t make sense for Texas. After signing Kyle Gibson to a three-year contract a few weeks ago, the Rangers were still at least one competent starter short of a full rotation, and bringing Lyles on board means you can now squint at their squad and see one of the better rotations in the American League (our depth charts put them fifth). That won’t be true forever — Mike Minor becomes a free agent after 2020, and Lance Lynn follows him the next winter, and of course, other teams will sign free agents — but for now, at least, Texas can consider its rotation set and address the other holes in its roster. As Craig Edwards noted in his Gibson writeup:

While … the Gibson signing puts the Rangers closer to contention, it comes with the obvious realization that the team still has a ton of work to do. The Rangers … need to fill an absurd number of holes across the diamond. Right now, our Depth Chart projections put the Rangers ahead of only the Marlins, Tigers, and Orioles on the position player side. Only Joey Gallo projects as an above-average player. Six of the nine positions project for 1.5 WAR or fewer, and two (catcher and first base) are at replacement level. Kyle Gibson gives the Rangers a great start to filling their needs to compete next year, but he’s still just a start. The Rangers should have a very busy offseason ahead if they want to get back to the playoffs.

Craig suggested the Rangers try for Gerrit Cole to finalize their rotation, and while that kind of big splash would’ve been undeniably fun, signing Lyles instead frees up money to pursue Anthony Rendon (as they are reportedly doing). If they manage to do that, and shore up a few other positions as well, they’ll have had a wholly successful offseason at the cost of nothing but money.

At least for the moment, though, what they have is Lyles. Despite his relatively young age, Lyles has been around forever (he was picked one spot ahead of new teammate Lynn in the 2008 draft) and has been competent if unspectacular over what’s now been a nearly 10-year big-league career. In 2018, he significantly dialed back the use of his fastball and slider in favor of his changeup and (especially) his curveball, which generated the jump in strikeout rate you saw at the top of the chart.

These days, he starts sequences with the hook about a quarter of the time, then stays with the pitch at least that often until he either records a strikeout or allows two balls (after which he overwhelmingly goes to his fastball). His dominant run at the end of 2019 was out of character, but not quite as far from reasonable expectations as you might imagine if your memories of Lyles are from before 2018. Since that time, he’s been reasonably effective at using a relatively broad arsenal to good effect.

One final note: The Rangers seem to have signed Lyles as a starter, and he in fact was a starter for all of 2019, but he’s made 102 appearances in relief over the course of his career (27 as recently as 2018) and if something goes wrong for him in the rotation next year — or if a slow market (or a failed push for Rendon) puts Hyun-Jin Ryu or Dallas Keuchel within range for Texas — Lyles can presumably move to the bullpen without too many jitters. For now, though, he’ll start — and Texas will continue its search for free agent bats.