Rays Lose ALDS, San Antonio Dreams the Pipedream
They say, the grass is greener on the other side. Day in and day out, it’s easy to say it’s better elsewhere. I could have a better job… a better home… a better life.
It’s easy to say, but as that other cliché goes, the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t.
Into this steps the Tampa Bay Rays, a club that after years of futility have been contenders on the field 2 of the past 3 seasons while seeing their season end in Game 5 of the ALDS against the Rangers. With all those years of losing, fans have not kept pace with the Rays’ winning ways. On a Monday when the Rays could have clinched a postseason berth, the Rays drew 12,446, which led to comments by David Price on Twitter chastising fans not turning out followed by the Rays giving away 20,000 free tickets to the final game of the regular season.
And while Game 5 of the ALDS finally kicked the fan base into gear (the Rays released 5,000 seats for sale for the rest of their postseason that ended when the Rangers won 5-1. With the season over, questions remain as to whether the Rays will be able to stay in the Tampa Bay area, long-term. TBS showed fans leaving the Trop in droves before the game ended, a microcosm of how fans reacted to the team all season.
San Antonio and, specifically, Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff has longed to bring Major League Baseball to the market. In 2006, Wolff chased another Florida club (the Marlins) who were – as is the case with the Rays now – chasing a stadium deal in South Florida. At that time, the plan was extending hotel and car-rental taxes to pull in approx. $200 million. The problem was that the estimated cost for the stadium was $310 million. The assumption was that the Marlins would pick up the rest of the tab. Knowing now how the Marlins operate (see: pulled $29 million in profits the year they asked for hundreds of millions to pay for their new stadium set to open in 2012), it was no surprise that they never moved on San Antonio’s bid. Besides, it was likely nothing more than a leveraging ploy as the Marlins also took to visiting Portland at one point.
Now, San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro, along with Judge Wolff, is looking into bringing another pro sports franchise to the market through an initiative called “SA2020”. Within this long-term look at how to grow San Antonio’s profile, the city is doling out approx. $50,000 for a feasibility study for pro sports. With the efforts made prior in 2006, fans and media have begun connecting the dots and saying, “Can San Antonio support Major League Baseball?”
First off, short of asking whether $50,000 should be spent on a feasibility study, a fully-vetted look at your market is a wise decision. As someone that worked directly on such a civic project (Portland’s effort in the early 2000s when the Montreal Expos were up for relocation), I saw the benefits of what such a study can do. Vague “ra-ra” efforts give way to hard numbers with which to build from.
SA has some advantages over the last time they dreamed of MLB. The population has grown steadily since then, which is one step in the right direction, but its media market rankings stands at just 37th
Even if you ignore that fact, or any steps that might give boosters perchance to say, “We have a real chance at luring an MLB club”, the reality is chances are slim to none that it occurs. Or, at least anytime between now and 2020.
And, it’s not the “SA2020” date that is driving this cold slap but rather the recent television contract extension between FSN Southwest and the Texas Rangers.
Local television deals are relocation or expansion’s kryptonite in MLB. For the Rangers and Astros, who share television territories, it means they count all of Texas and Louisiana as just theirs. They also share Oklahoma and Arkansas with the Royals and Cardinals, as well as the far east side of New Mexico with the Diamondbacks. Dropping a club into San Antonio throws all that into chaos. “How do we slice up the TV market?” “How does this impact the Rangers (and Astros) local television deals?”
(Click the image to see MLB’s television territorial map)
To say that the television issue is a small matter is to ignore the enormity of the Rangers deal. The extension, which runs through to 2020. While the Rangers will not say what the deal is worth a report by Bob Nightengale of USA Today pegged its total worth at over $3 billion. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News brought the figure into more realistic terms by saying there is an up-front cash component to the deal which makes it worth more like $1.5-$1.6 billion or approx. $75 million to $80 million a year. Regardless of which figures you select, it’s a considerable sum that the Rangers would clearly look to protect. The size of their television territory is a massive factor in how those figures are reached. Start to slice it up with a club in San Antonio, and…
So, while the Rays are stuck in a bad position, their options are really limited to their home region. San Antonio, or any other market looking to land a MLB club, have to deal with issues that are more than your population, DMA, number of Fortune 500 companies, and number of competing pro franchises vying for corporate sponsors and season ticket buyers. It’s a matter of indemnifying the club or clubs that control the television territory in which the prospective relo or expansion market resides. It happened with the relocation of the Expos, and it would be the case with San Antonio. SA, conduct your study, but even if there was some miracle were to happen and you had stadium funding all lined up for a prospective club, you can bet there would be a battle royal to keep them out of San Antonio. Such is territorial pissings, television style in Major League Baseball.
Maury Brown is the Founder and President of the Business of Sports Network, which includes The Biz of Baseball, The Biz of Football, The Biz of Basketball and The Biz of Hockey, as well as a contributor to FanGraphs and Forbes SportsMoney. He is available for freelance and looks forward to your comments.
Good read, Maury. Thank you.
How are the territory rights defined in NYC/Brooklyn/NewJersey? To me, moving TB to Brooklyn or NJ is what everyone should be working on. (Assuming, of course, that the Rays *must* leave FLA.)
Like that area needs a third MLB team. San Antonia doesn’t seem like the solution either, though, to be fair.
uh the area DOES need a 3rd team if anyone ever plans on taking away some of the Yankees revenue
A 3rd team in NY/NJ would probably not have a huge effect on NYY payroll, but it would provide a big infusion of cash to all of MLB. The national TV rights would likely increase with another big market team on the schedule, presumably also leading to increased national playoff TV rights. A downside would be that it would drive up the cost of the Teixeiras/ARODs/etc. of the world, as agents would have another big market team to get involved in the bidding.
I’d add the point that both the Yankees and Mets have their own networks that broadcast the bulk of their games – could open up television rights in a way legally distinct from the Fox Sports Network issues in Texas.
A greater concern: where exactly would the team go? There are long standing allegiances to the Yankees or Mets throughout New York. If you put it in Jersey where does it go? Neither the Nets nor Devils could draw at the Meadowlands (it’s a bitch to get to for events with less than 50,000 – greater than 50k and NJ Transit runs a train there). It’s taken years of drama to get the Nets-Brooklyn to a point where it looks likely the team will play there in a few years – can’t imagine a baseball stadium which will likely seat twice as many as a basketball arena would be easy to fit into a convenient location. Newark? Maybe that’d be the best option if they could build something right by the Prudential Center, where the Devils and Nets play now, and the train station.
uh the area DOES need a 3rd team if anyone ever plans on taking away some of the Yankees revenue
Is this the goal? Because the system is set up *right now* to take away tons of Yankee revenue.
The “poor” teams take the money, keep their payroll low, get their local municipalities to buy them new stadiums, and then pocket the revenue sharing checks.
But I know, the Yankees are “bad for baseball”.
The Yankees aren’t going to be losing revenue to a Rays team that has relocated to the Tri-State Area. The Yankee fan base is pretty well entrenched. If anything, it’ll be the Mets who suffer from having to compete as the “other team” in the region.
Yah, I can’t imagine why there would be a need for another NYC team. Would seem excessive to me. Maybe before that happens, people should work on selling out Mets games first.
Additionally, even as a Red Sox fan, I do generally oppose the thought that Yankees are bad for baseball. Sure, they outspend people and lock up a playoff spot almost every season. But everybody needs a bad guy. There’s something to be said for having a big bad team to beat, especially when the level of parity is great enough that the Yankees are still likely to get knocked out of the postseason every year. So heck, if the Yankees are spending a bunch of money for a 1/8 chance at a WS title each year, fine.
We here for the Red Sox and the Rays will keep fighting for our postseason slots, and exult in our victories over those big, bad spend-a-lots.
2010 Total Payroll
New York Yankees $ 206,333,389 (Rank 1st)
Boston Red Sox $ 162,447,333 (Rank 2nd)
Tampa Bay Rays $ 71,923,471 (Rank 19th)
One is not like the others… I’m gonna leave it at that.
It makes me sad to look at that Portland proposal. Pretty amazing feasibility study… at the time it really seemed like MLB in Portland was a possibility. And now PGE park is home to soccer. Sigh…
The argument seems to be that television territories have evolved into de facto territorial rights. The entire country belongs to somebody, and much of the country belongs to several somebodies. Moving into somebody’s territory would require compensation, even if it is not completely blocked.
The logical consequence of this would seem to be that it is nearly impossible, or at least very expensive, to relocate nowadays. Any move will greatly affect any club whose territory you would be moving into, and will have a lesser effect on any team whose territory yours would overlap with.
Take Portland: a relatively simple case. Seattle would have a chunk of its territory carved out, and so would demand compensation. San Francisco and Oakland also would have an interest, even though Portland is not within their territory, because they would lose the prized Eugene market, or at least have to share it with an Oregon organization which might command more market share than a distant Washington club. So they too could demand compensation.
This is a piece of cake compared with Las Vegas, which is currently shared by four clubs. Looking at the map, it is hard to see what plausible major league market is also plausibly available. This is enough to make San Juan and Monterrey look good. (Well, almost enough…)
This is similar to the situation with Minor League Baseball. There, territorial rights are less expansive but still can run far beyond what one would reasonably consider the team’s market. Franchises are not quite locked in place, but the markets within a minor league’s footprint which are both plausible and available is severely limited. I smile when I hear talk of putting a minor league club in, say, the DC suburbs. Such talk always seems to avoid discussions of territorial rights.
On the minor league level this has created the opportunity for independent leagues. The Atlantic League doesn’t give a fig about, for example, the Harrisburg Senators’ claim on York, Pennsylvania. I see no analogous opportunity on the major league level.
the Rays should move to San Jose and son the A’s.
The Los Vegas thing is unfortunate, as that’s one place I think would be a great town to have a team in some ways. I’d totally enjoy taking a baseball trip to Vegas to catch a game, followed by some blackjack and free drinks.
Also, great article.
Gimme a break.
If the O’s were able to work it out with the Nationals then these Texas teams can work it out too.
DC Baltimore area houses two teams.
Texas has two teams. San Antonio would make it three teams in that market.
Your comparison is off.
Cry me a river. Only 10x the amount of land mass. Go figure out a way to get a team in an area rapidly growing. It can’t be that hard. Leaving the Rays in Tampa is a disgrace.
Based on the TV coverage at the end of the season it seemed the Nationals have more phillies fans at their stadium than Nats fans anway, so maybe there are three teams in the area.
DC Baltimore = 8.2 million people
Texas = 24 million people
Though honestly, the biggest factor is not the # of people, it’s the # of baseball followers. Basically, baseball sort of competes with football, and Texas has not only NFL teams but a lot of regional college teams that have a lot of support. Fans only have so much time/money to support different teams, so that’s got to be considered.
Baltimore DC = Ravens, Redskins, Virginia Tech, U of V, U of WV, U of Delaware
One thing I am unclear on in regards to the TV rights is the following:
Ok, the Rangers signed an exclusive deal with TV Station X. That means TV Station X is the only station that can carry the Rangers.
So, the San Antonio team comes into the market. TV Station Y wants to carry the San Antonio team. They sign an exclusive deal to do so.
What’s the big deal? X’s rights don’t seem to be infringed because they still have the exclusive rights to the Rangers. It is just that there is another station, Y, that will carry the San Antonio team.
What am I missing?
It’s not about X’s rights. It’s about the Rangers’ and Astros’ exclusive territory and their “right” to avoid competition with other MLB teams broadcasting into their market.
and presumably, X paid a premium to the Rangers because of their status as one of two MLB teams in the broadcast territory. if there were, say, 5 teams in that area, X would probably have paid less for those rights
Then how does WGN get around it? Because I’m 1000 miles away from Chicago but still get WGN and the Cubs.
Exactly, Jordy. If I’m not mistaken, the Nats are getting screwed on their local TV deal, as they had to relinquish a portion of that revenue to the O’s as compensation for moving into the O’s territory. That’s why I asked about the NYY/NYM territorial rights.
Or we could do the same thing in an area that makes way, way, way more sense: New York/Jersey.
Yeah, I know, it’ll never happen….but northern New Jersey makes by far the most sense for any MLB team looking to relocate.
Why is Latin America a bad idea for a MLB sports team?
In retro spec my comment lacks any context. I meant to say.
Why is america the only place we are looking here? The sport is as international as ever. Why not Latin America?
Two reasons. The first is travel. People have talked about San Juan, but if you look at a map, it’s a hike for most teams, to say nothing of those on the west coast.
The second is economics. Face it, even in the current economic reality, there’s just way more money to be had in the US than in Mexico. And Mexico is really the only place close enough to even think about overcoming the travel distance.
think about how ridiculous road trips would become when you add international travel’s complications to the equation…
Yeah, international travel would totally mess things up for teams – there’s just no way ball clubs could get organized enough to cross borders in order to play games in Latin American or Canada.
Puerto Rico would not be “international travel” as it does not require a visa/passport to go to. In fact, it’s easier to travel into/out of Puerto Rico than it is Canada.
BROOKLYN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I would love that!
Anything to show Mets fans how F’ed up their Team, Owners, and Management are compared to two well run franchises right in the very same metro area. Oh please sweet baby jesus in heaven make this happen.
Do you really fucking think Mets fans need to be showed this? We know. It’s the management that needs to figure it out.
God no. Another Atlantic Yards fiasco is exactly what Brooklyn doesn’t need. And the last thing New York needs is another tax payer financed stadium.
So between Orlando, Indianapolis, Charlotte, Vegas and Norfolk, what other options do the Rays have left? Are any of these feasible?
Based on the map it looks like the best two places would be Las Vegas and Charlotte. For the least competition,course, I’m assuming Vegas is as far north as I think it is.
I wish we had super fast plans. Imagine if the Ray’s could move anywhere in asia.
I wish we had Teleportation machines! Then the Rays could play on the MOON.
Charlotte would be awesome.
Have you looked at TV Market sizes?
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/articles/baseball_markets.shtml
Ewww…. I hate when people do averages and not medians.
On the topic…. this is interesting because the largest potential market with an NBA team or NFL team (NHL is still around?!) is Portland.
After looking at this chart I’m also wondering if Tampa Bay couldn’t move east (inland) to Orlando and hope for a change? Less people but wouldn’t the initial luxury (?) of having a baseball team bring the fans for at leat a few years?
Tampa Bay should pull a Kenny Powers and head to mexico to start its come back.
What about Connecticut make the AL east battle one huge north eastern battle!
Latin America doesn’t work because it’s simply too poor. You think there are enough people in Mexico City willing to shell out Yankees prices for tickets?
Why would they have to be “Yankee” prices? Are people in KC willing to shell out “Yankee prices”?
Are people in latin america willing to shell out KC prices?
I don’t know. Maybe not in Mexico City, but what about in San Juan?
Vegas Baby! Vegas.
Horrible idea. Nothing like a night game in 104 degree heat in August.
But it is the next logical choice for a baseball franchise based on market size and location. Not sure if they could support a team though. The gambling issue from long ago is a non issue these days.
104 degree, oh how I hated being in Las Vegas. What a pile of crap city.
I wonder why Charlotte is not given more consideration? The Charlotte area draws great with the Panthers (except this year the fan base is very upset by the front office). They have the Bobcats (a team that no one really cares for after the Hornets left). The Carolinas is considered a growing baseball hot bed with really good college baseball programs in North Carolina, South Carolina and Clemson. There are a lot of transplants from the north with strong loyalites for the Red Sox and Yankees. Currently Charlotte has 4 teams they black out. I can watch the Reds through Fox Sports TN, the Orioles and Nationals through MASN and MASN2 and the Braves on any of the “southern” channels. Cincy about 7 hours away, Baltimore/DC 8-9 hours, Atlanta about 4 hours. The biggest downside would b that it could have a negative effect on all the minor league teams down here.
“Now, San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros, along with…”
Really?
Cisneros hasn’t been mayor of San Antonio for about 25 years.
Castro… Of course. Updated
What about bringing baseball back to Montreal? Or am I delusional?
Delusional (and I’d love to see the Expos back). Sadly, Vancouver’s just as unlikely, too.
Baseball in Montreal died the moment the Québécois separatists scared the Anglo population to Toronto. There just isn’t as much/enough corporate money in Montreal compared to the mid-60s when the team was founded.
I think the only two places with that give baseball teams like the Rays any leverage are Vancouver and Monterrey, Mexico.
Vancouver (or BC) already has provided a good number of MLBers already, fits easily into the AL West, and you could either leave the AL East at four teams or move the Tigers/Indians to the East. The city is growing, about the size of Portland, and I would assume get around the territory TV stuff. And the Blue Jays being three time zones away PLUS most Canadians viewing Toronto like most American’s view New York… I don’t think it’d be hard to build a fan base.
Monterrey, Mexico is a bigger gamble, but would have a greater reward. The metro area is huge (five million plus) and has solid corporate backing (CEMEX for starters). Mexican GDP per capita isn’t as low as we Americans think, and Monterrey is much wealthier than most rest of the country. It’s near the US border so wouldn’t be a huge PITA travel wise, the team slides into the AL West with some ease (going for the Rangers/Monterrey rivalry). However the biggest issue would be attracting players, specifically American players whom I’d guess the team would have to WAY over pay for.
Both Vancouver and Monterrey have another major issue: different currency and thus exchange rates. As the NHL of the 1990s can tell you, that by itself can kill franchises. The Blue Jays have complained about it for years (though not recently as the Loonie is very very strong).
Finally, this can’t happen, but the most logical place for baseball to expand to internationally is Havana. Sadly, that won’t happen for at least what 20 years?
If only. Should the embargo ever end, I would wonder if there would be reluctance on the part of Cuba to join.
As for Montreal, I always assumed the bigger factors were the 1994 strike/lockout and subsequent fire sale and of course Jeffrey Loria. I also think failure to build a new stadium downtown was also important.
I never would have thought that the Anglo decline was big enough to make that kind of a dent in attendance or that the Expos fan base was lopsidedly Anglo to begin with.
Well the demographics and history’s of Montreal and Toronto changed in the late 60s and through the 70s. Montreal was the financial center and largest city in Canada in the ’60s (thus why the Expos were placed in Montreal rather than Toronto) and was still the largest in Canada in 1971. But by the 1981, that had changed, Toronto over took it and hasn’t looked back. To my understanding this huge change (it’s rare to find one city not only over take, but completely out grown another city that had been firmly established like Toronto over took Montreal) was because most every financial company and bank had moved to Toronto. And with it a lot of jobs.
Frankly, the Expos’ timing just sucked. And the Canadians mean more to that town than I think any sport team means to any city in North America.
I think Salt Lake City would make a great destination for them.
Well, the Rays are locked in to their lease until 2027, aren’t they?
The good thing for any competing city is it has almost 15 years to grow, improve financially, pass necessary legislation, etc. By 2023 or so, we’ll have a better picture of the Rays’ fanbase, because there will be second-generation Rays fans. If the attendance is still as bad as it is now even during their peak windows, and much worse during down years, then undoubtedly the team will move.
Other major sports leagues will make some important decisions in the next 15 years, too. For example, the Sacramento Kings and Memphis Grizzlies might be in new cities by then. The NFL has several relocation candidates. My guess is that either the NFL or NBA goes to Las Vegas before MLB does. It makes more sense – much easier to sell out 10 or 41 games than it is to sell out 81. For an NFL fan, you could justify taking a “gambling/Vegas weekend” on the week your favorite team’s game against Vegas, and build your trip around your team’s Sunday game there. The team wouldn’t even need a home fan base.
Once the NFL or NBA goes to Vegas, you can cross MLB off the list, because the market won’t support multiple big-league franchises nearly as well.
My feeling is that cities like Monterrey and San Antonio have about 15 years to separate themselves from the pack. The political and financial landscapes will change a lot by then, and one city will emerge as a very logical future home for the Rays.
According to this study (http://www.portfolio.com/industry-news/sports/2009/12/04/how-cities-rank-for-potential-sports-expansion) only two options “currently outside of MLB have income bases sufficiently large to join its ranks: Riverside-San Bernardino, California, and Montreal.”
Wonder if other studies have been done.
And yeah, this will all different y 2027.
SA is the 7th largest city in the US
the SA-Austin corridor will continue to grow
the SA/Austin Metro area will be the 15th largest MSA (see this link:
http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/sa-austin_market_data_could_be_combined_103170419.html)
it will happen
von
It’s all about TV sets and corporate money, not population. That’s why the NFL can live without LA, but wouldn’t mind tapping into that corporate money again. That’s why San Antonio (or Vegas) isn’t a great destination, why basketball will fail in New Orleans, why the NBA left Seattle but will be back sooner than later, and places like Cleveland and Detroit still work even though it seems like they shouldn’t.
plenty of that in san antonio and austin – have checked fortune lately and forbes for the richest people and where they live? check it out.
obviously i’m a big fan of this – the real problem SA has is politics: Jerry Jones hosts training camp in SA to “claim” that market from Houston. Houston strategically named thier team the “texan” to capture everyone else within the state. SA needs to go BIG with the selling of the city. i have an idea that can get Jerry Jones (believe it or not) to buy into having a third team in texas. with this it can EASILY be done (remember Jacksonville?)
same issue with baseball.
The problem with saying “San Antonio-Austin” is it’s a huge area. It’s 90 minutes from Austin to San Antonio, and that assumes good traffic. The north exurbs that have the most growth and disposable income are 2 hours away. They might be good for a weekend trip, but they’re not going to be the people buying tickets day in and out.
If you put San Antonio and Austin’s metro areas together, you’d get 2.6 million. Seattle’s metro area can fit between the two cities, and it’s 3.5 million.
Charlotte may be logical, but they had a shot with getting the Twins in ’98 and voted the stadium down. I don’t see them getting a team any time soon.
In the end, the best place for Tampa Bay might be… Tampa. That is, move across the bay to a stadium in Tampa, closer to the center of the population. They’ve had a proposal for a retractable roof stadium out there for years. Like the Marlins, they could do better moving into the heart of the city.
I wish Mexico City would get a team. Yeah, Mexico is a poorer country, but Mexico City has a huge honking population. They could probably build a 60k seat stadium and sell it out every game. Also, TV ratings there would probably be pretty good.
It’d be even more of a launchpad than Denver, though.
Why is it that this TV revenue thing works with three NBA franchises in Texas but wouldn’t work for MLB or the NFL? It seems to me that if the three NBA clubs in Texas can amicably split up the state amongst themselves for the purposes of television revenue than it should be able to work with the other big leagues as well.