Rays Narrowly Avoid Infamy but Can’t Avoid the Sweep as Rangers Advance

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Texas Rangers locked up their first postseason series since 2016 with an exclamation point, once again dominating the Tampa Bay Rays, this time by a score of 7-1. Nathan Eovaldi shook off his late-season struggles to deliver a masterclass, while Corey Seager and Josh Jung chipped in a pair of doubles each (with the latter also adding a triple), and Adolis García and Evan Carter went deep. For the Rays, this marked their third season in a row of playoff disappointment, and while they won’t sit atop the list of postseason scoreless streaks after Curtis Mead’s RBI single in the seventh, they’ll head into the offseason with more question marks than they’ve had in recent memory.

After the lefty Jordan Montgomery shut them down in Game One, the Rays made a couple of notable changes in advance of facing the right-handed Eovaldi. First, they shed the Devil Rays uniforms that may have doomed them to the fate of their World Series-less ancestors. Second, and more directly in response to yesterday’s events, they swapped the recently returned Jose Siri — who made critical errors on both sides of the ball yesterday — for the left-handed hitting Josh Lowe, shifting Manuel Margot from right field to center in order to accommodate him.

Margot, who missed a good chunk of the second half himself, was turned around on a Seager liner in just the second at-bat of the game. But after the Rangers stranded 14 runners yesterday — a franchise record for a postseason win — they couldn’t get Seager home. Texas’ second hitter reached in the next frame as well, but Yandy Díaz — who also struggled defensively yesterday, committing one of the franchise’s playoff-record four-errors — ensured that they didn’t have to worry about stranding Jonah Heim with a diving grab that doubled him off:

As for the Rays’ offense, Eovaldi looked sharp against them from the get-go. The 33-year-old, two-time Tommy John recipient missed several weeks with a forearm injury before returning to post a 9.30 ERA and 7.88 FIP in 20.1 September innings. But his velocity was solid through the first two frames of this one, and he notched five whiffs, with three coming on his high-spin splitter; contrary to what the broadcast may have had you think, splitters are intended to kill spin, and though Eovaldi’s is more of a spinner than the average split, it was successful in part because it was down 55 rpm early.

The Rangers put ducks on the pond again in the top of the third, with a Jung double leading the charge. But a quick turn on a big double play by the out-of-position Mead and a crucial strikeout of Robbie Grossman — who, in a bit of a head-scratcher, drew another start over Mitch Garver at DH and in the three-hole — quelled the threat. This left the Rangers with no runners on for García when he led off the fourth, limiting his homer to a solo shot:

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But the game would quickly fall out of reach. After Zach Eflin set down the elder Lowe (Nathaniel) and Heim, Leody Taveras ripped a 102.1 mph liner up the middle for a single. Next, Jung floated a pop fly into short right, and the younger Lowe risked a dive with two outs. He came up short, and Jung ended up at third with a triple. Rattled, Eflin grooved a first-pitch cutter to Carter, who reached base for the sixth straight time to start his postseason career, homering this time. The shot was a two-run blast, and the Rangers had gone up four in a heartbeat:

Texas added another run in the next frame. After yesterday’s comedy of errors, the Rays committed their only miscue of the afternoon when Mead couldn’t come up with a Seager grounder to start things off in the fifth. The Texas shortstop eventually came around to score thanks to a Grossman seeing-eye single (that prompted boos from the Tampa Bay crowd) and a (Nathaniel) Lowe RBI groundout. That inning proved to be Eflin’s last; on the day, the right-hander gave up nine hard-hit (95 mph+) balls, with two leaving the yard, after living in the heart of the zone far too much:

But the Rays’ move to the bullpen provided little relief, as a trio of doubles in the sixth scored two more and put the Rangers up 7-0, while Tampa Bay’s offense hurtled towards a record-setting postseason scoreless streak. Eovaldi largely maintained his velocity into the late innings, and the Rays didn’t even get a runner past first until the seventh. That’s when they managed back-to-back singles on a pair of sub-.200 xBA grounders. Margot followed up the singles with a flyout, bringing up Mead. It was then, with Eovaldi laboring past 90 pitches for the first time since his forearm injury, that Mead ended the Rays’ scoreless streak at 33.2 innings — just short of tying the record — with a 106.5 mph liner.

That brought Eovaldi’s night to a close, but he was dominant overall, and his stuff proved that it wasn’t just due to the Rays’ haplessness. He continued pumping 95 into his last inning, notching whiffs on all of his pitches with expert separation:

If he recovers well, he’ll pair with Montgomery for a formidable one-two punch against the pride of the American League in Baltimore, though Dane Dunning may be the starter for Game One of the ALDS if the Rangers opt to have their top starters on more regular rest. They’ll face off against the Orioles beginning Saturday.

While they didn’t set the scoreless streak record, the Rays failed to win a game in the Wild Card round for the second year in a row, this despite 13 more regular-season wins. To their credit, they kept fighting with a pair of hits in the ninth, but they still moved to 1-7 in their past eight postseason contests. Yet, their playoff struggles are the least of their worries heading into next year. Their long list of Tommy John recipients and reliance on rookie position players down the stretch leave them with plenty to sort out this winter.





Alex is a FanGraphs contributor. His work has also appeared at Pinstripe Alley, Pitcher List, and Sports Info Solutions. He is especially interested in how and why players make decisions, something he struggles with in daily life. You can find him on Twitter @Mind_OverBatter.

34 Comments
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bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
2 years ago

I would like to be among the first few to jump enthusiastically aboard the Evan Carter bandwagon. I will have to find a place where I can place a few shekels on him for 2024 AL Rookie of the Year.

Mahoney
2 years ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

He looks like he has a Christian Yelich type skill set, and even if he has a rough 2024 he’s very young with plenty of room to grow.

Sandy Kazmir
2 years ago
Reply to  Mahoney

In my first real experience watching him he reminded me so much of Ben Zobrist. Loooong counts due to elite zone awareness, but what made Ben turn the power corner in 2008 was his newfound ability to jump on limped in first pitch fastballs once pitchers have been lured into a false sense of security. At 22 or whatever Carter is already showing that he knows how to walk that patience-passivity line, and it bodes well for a bright future.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

I never really understood Eric’s hesitation on him. His upside isn’t quite as high as his age / level / production suggests but it’s hard to find real center fielders who can hit well.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Yeah, the write up is essentially “High-probability 110-120 wRC+ guy who plays a viable CF.”

Pretty clear-cut 55 profile.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago

I think people who saw him smash 5 homers in 75 PAs but struck out a third of the time are not getting an accurate picture of his likely outcome. He’s probably going to both hit homers and strikeout at about half those rates. He’s not going to be like Julio Rodriguez (or Buxton, Luis Robert, or Matt Kemp, or any other high-power center fielder you can think of). Which is fine because a clearly above-average hitter who plays an above-average center fielder without being elite at either is the type of player is probably the 4th or 5th best position player on a championship team.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Yeah, Nimmo-lite is a 4-WAR guy!

fartinyourface
2 years ago

Disappointing night for the 200 fans that showed up

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  fartinyourface

This is getting downvoted but 20,000 fans for a playoff game is horrible. The Brewers and Twins drew about double that in their first playoff game this year (I think).

I remain unconvinced that a new stadium in St. Petersburg is going to solve this. I know why they’re staying in St. Petersburg, it’s because they’re getting $600 million dollars (and I think development rights too). But even within the Tampa Bay area, I have to question whether St. Petersburg is the right fit. I think both the municipal governments funding this and the Rays are going to look back on this in 2035 or 2040 with a lot of regret.

Last edited 2 years ago by sadtrombone
Sandy Kazmir
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I think the 3PM start time, and that not being announced until about 24 hours before the game on a workday made it pretty tough, but there’s always an excuse. As an old coach said, “excuses are for losers.” You’ve hit the nail on the head with your second paragraph.

The young family base is to the west of Tampa (and pushing to the north). It’s a long drive for them to St. Pete and an ok one to Tampa. With 6:40 start times most nights it’s hard to get those families to come more than a handful of times a year. If you can get there it is convenient to not be vexed with missing the ending or getting the kids to bed at a reasonable time at the end of a game. It’s great to have on the tv after dinner, as well.

Tampa has Steinbrenner Field and the Bucs and the Lightning so they have shown no interest in this from the beginning. A large driver for this was a Memorandum of Understanding with the city that, “…sets a price for damages if the team chooses to end its Tropicana Field contract before 2027 in favor of a stadium elsewhere in Pinellas or Hillsborough Counties.” The article further states, “(Mayor) Foster speculates that for only $24 million, the Rays could tear up their existing contract after the 2017 season and start playing 71 home games in an existing Tampa Bay minor-league stadium… and play 10 games a year in markets like Montreal, New Jersey or Mexico city.” This statement coming four months before the start of the 2017 season causes me to infer that the city had no problem with pay-for-play, which is fine if the city had not stalled negotiations for a new stadium within the parameters of the MOU, read: St. Pete, making this feel more like extortion. Maybe “exerting leverage” if you’re the hoss on the see-saw.

Like most clusterf*cks there is blame to go all around, but I cannot blame Stu for feeling a bit like the red-headed stepchild in the region. That his unborn heirs will become unfathomably wealthy once the subsidies come in to further develop the footprint is small solace. Still, he has had to hold onto this thing for over 20 years now. Making incremental improvements to what was once a horrific place to watch baseball (subsidized by the city and used as an offset for revenue-sharing purposes, natch), consistently putting a winning club out there after it took 10 years to win even 70 games, and for letting his people go out and do their jobs instead of feeling like the things he is good at give him any right to be the front and center father of success. Stu’s just a punk rocker from Brooklyn who hit the lottery. What would any of us do in his shoes? Whenever someone else inevitably owns the team I don’t know that it will be any better, but it could be worse. Crook Cohen just showed us that wielding all the resources in the world hardly matter if you can only swing them around frantically.

Hopefully, more people show up in the future, but that isn’t a plan, and we’ve seen it doesn’t matter much in a world where gate revenue is dwarfed by streaming/television rights. For what it’s worth, they sold 300,000+ more seats this year than last, and unlike most other teams they report turnstile clicks not tickets sold.

When I went to the first playoff game against the White Sox in 2008 it was filled to the rafters with excited fans. It sounded like 80,000 when Longo hit his first homer between everyone’s cowbells and the lid reflecting the madness back down upon. It has been like that plenty of other times even if not quite to that level, but 20,000 people in a 30,000 seat stadium is going to look a little better than the tarpsless 45K at the Trop. People that went told me it was plenty loud in the first few innings, but when a team is beating itself it’s hard to ask folks to keep going. Maybe that’s the thing, other fanbases do.

Demiurge
2 years ago
Reply to  fartinyourface

Why is anyone downvoting this? It’s effective hyperbole because the Rays attendance was, indeed, embarrassing.

diamonddores
2 years ago
Reply to  Demiurge

especially a day after the Twins won a game in part because their crowd was making so much noise it impacted Toronto’s baserunning

Roger McDowell Hot Foot
2 years ago
Reply to  Demiurge

Presumably all 200 of them can click buttons on websites just as well as we can. (Also, this commenter’s history may be a factor.)

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
2 years ago
Reply to  fartinyourface

The recent announcement that the Rays were going to build a new stadium and keep the team in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area struck me as a big case of stupidity. Less than 20,000 for a playoff game is a disgrace. Why does major league baseball want to continue to have a team in a location that has shown, time and time again, that it is not going to support the team?

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

I think it is interesting that they’re only going to build a 30,000 person stadium there. There are other smaller stadiums-Cleveland’s is only 35K or something, and Target Field / Fenway aren’t especially large either. But 30K would almost certainly be the smallest stadium in MLB, except maybe the Las Vegas team (which, again, I think they are telling on themselves there).

David Klein
2 years ago

Evan Carter has arrived and looks like he’s gonna be a big star and Wyatt Langford is on the way sometime next year so the Rangers aren’t going away the next few years. No idea why Grossman is starting over Garver vs a righty let alone batting third but it didn’t matter in this series.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  David Klein

Langford isn’t going to be challenged until he sees major league pitching. Chances are good that he is going to rake.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Can’t wait to get a look at him!

dingusdongus434
2 years ago
Reply to  David Klein

Feels good as a Rangers fan–their OF was looking horrific at the start of this season but is looking like it will be a strength for the next handful of years now.

SertoriusMember since 2023
2 years ago

Great series for the Rangers, but hope Bochy remembers Garver next series

hughduffy
2 years ago

Why was Robbie Grossman hitting third in the order in this ALWC series?
Robbie Grossman, in the 3 hole, 2023:
6 G, 24 PA, 6 R, 4 H, 2 HR, 9 BB, 6 SO, .267/.542/.667 slash line.
Not bad.

Maybe they put him there because he’s a switch hitter who can hit lefties.
The lineup today in terms of handedness: R, L, S, R, L, S, S, R, L.

Or maybe they put him there because he feels more comfortable there than other players. Lineup position shouldn’t matter to a player, but sometimes it does.

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
2 years ago
Reply to  hughduffy

I’ll take the 420 PA sample that says he’s a league average hitter. In a lineup with many All-Star bats and the seemingly invincible Evan Carter, it feels…odd to take the league average guy and make sure he gets an extra PA over the dudes after him.

It’s small potatoes but it is a weird decision (especially when you’re sitting him for a dude who is a career .272/.377/.509 against LHP).

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago

Once again, I was very surprised how many smart people and good models were picking the Rays here. This is not the same team as the one that was out scoring it’s opponents in April by 10 runs every game. And the Rangers lineup is superb. I’m not saying the Rangers were strong favorites and maybe not even favorites at all but it seemed like this team got written off.

Sandy Kazmir
2 years ago

Congrats to the Rangers. They were able to mostly get right their injury issues to key players, while the Rays looked like the walking wounded. Have to figure out how to get the good team they build in April to be the one on the field in October.

SenorGato
2 years ago

Color me excited af when the Rays lose. The nuthugging and worship of that franchise for their burn and turn methods is so gross.

OTOH They’ll win by being gifted some public funds and land for a near cost and tax free stadium that will be a candidate to be replaced in a couple decades because we’re just that far gone

diamonddores
2 years ago
Reply to  SenorGato

yeah hooray for orgs that like keeping player salaries low. Hard to cheer for the Rays knowing their ownership is so anti-player

SenorGato
2 years ago
Reply to  SenorGato

Color me shocked that this is an unpopular take among the freest, bravest population in the history of history (if you ask them)

SenorGato
2 years ago
Reply to  SenorGato

Downvote this one, it’s a bit much

nahMember since 2026
2 years ago
Reply to  SenorGato

One day in the probably-distant future, the best players in baseball (like the ones the Rays exploit) will be paid the highest salaries and leeches like Stuart Sternberg will have no reason to own a baseball team. Hey, perhaps they’ll even be owned by the cities they belong to. I’m a dreamer.

Chip LockeMember since 2016
2 years ago

I know it’s a two-game sample size but….Not a great look when the #1 team looks like the worst roster in the playoffs while getting bounced by a combined score of 11-1.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  Chip Locke

I think there are a couple of things going on here beyond the small sample size and the fact that the Rangers are much better than others were giving them credit for.

One is that they had the run differential of +103 on May 1st and +195 at the end of the season. This team was totally dominant to start the year, and while that team from May through the end of the year was also very good it wasn’t as good as the full-strength Rangers or Astros. They lost some key players to injuries, and others to suspensions, and a lot of others were just playing way over their heads. I don’t think these are things that we would necessarily blame the front office for, but I also wouldn’t use them to absolve it either. While it’s tempting to say “look at all these guys they lost to injury” it’s worth remembering that the Rays knew they had a ton of pitchers with serious injury risks (Eflin, Rasmussen, McClanahan, Glasnow, Fairbanks). They thought they had enough depth so it wouldn’t matter, but it did.

The other issue is that the Rays are an extremely platoon-heavy team. Losing Lowe and Franco took out two of their everyday guys but aside from them there are only three guys who they pencil in to play every day: Diaz, Arozarena, and Paredes. I think it’s fair to wonder if the drop-off in performance between those three (who are legitimate playoff hitters) and the Margot / Lowe / Ramirez / Siri / types is bigger in the playoffs than in the regular season. It might be easier for opposing teams to play matchups in the playoffs than in the regular season, and the Rays are already so well optimized for matchups that they don’t anything left.

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

It wasn’t like they were facing chumps on the mound. Monty has straight leveled up since the Yanks dealt him, and Eovaldi has the goods — it is question of health.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
2 years ago

Montgomery actually has a lower K-BB% in the year and a half since the Yanks dealt him than he did in the year and a half before – the improvement in results is almost entirely down to his HR/FB% dropping by 3%, even as his barrel rate, EV, and HardHit% increased.

Dude was already a borderline #2 when the Yanks traded him for a lighthitting, injury-prone CF.

HappyFunBallMember since 2019
2 years ago
Reply to  Chip Locke

Meh. That’s baseball Suzyn!