Red Sox Jump Into Free Agency With Five-Year Deal for Ranger Suárez
The Red Sox have finally done it. On Wednesday afternoon, the Sox became the last team in baseball to agree to terms with a major league free agent and they did so with a bang, nabbing southpaw Ranger Suárez on a five-year deal worth $130 million. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the signing, while Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the terms. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that the deal contained no deferred money, meaning that the average annual value is a straight $26 million. Setting aside Alex Bregman’s opt-out laden pillow contract and several two-year deals given to pitchers who missed the first while recovering from injuries, this represents the first true multi-year commitment the team has made to a free agent during the tenure of chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. The Red Sox are finally going for it using every means available, and with one of the game’s most consistently good (if not consistently available) starting pitchers on their roster, they are looking more and more like a championship contender.
The Red Sox went into the offseason with one of the game’s greatest starters in Garrett Crochet, but there was a big gap between him and the rest of the rotation, which featured a number of solid pitchers who hadn’t managed to step up and grab the no. 2 spot in Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, and Kutter Crawford. Boston upgraded through trades for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo, and according to our depth charts, they projected to have the best rotation in the game even before signing Suárez (the Phillies, even without Suárez, rank fourth).
Still, this is a different caliber of move, the effects of which seem likely to cascade down the roster. It represents a major commitment in both years and dollars, and according to RosterResource, it pushes Boston just over the second luxury tax threshold. All of a sudden, Bello and Co. are likely jockeying for the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation rather than the second. The Red Sox also boast Patrick Sandoval, who missed the 2025 season recovering from internal brace surgery, and Kyle Harrison, who came over in the Rafael Devers trade and projects for an above-average line in 2026. We’ve now named nine different viable big league starters, before you even get to coveted prospects like Payton Tolle and Connelly Early, who debuted in 2025. That’s a lot of depth to deal from, freeing Boston up to trade a starter and maybe some of its outfield surplus to reinforce a particularly weak infield.
The Red Sox turned to the starting pitching market after failing to bring Bregman back, and it’s at least possible that signing Suárez will allow them to trade for Nico Hoerner or Matt Shaw, who would only be on the market because Bregman might have made them superfluous in Chicago. The dominos could fall the other direction too. Losing Suárez could make the Phillies even more desperate for Bo Bichette, and should they sign him, it’s not hard to foresee them trading Bryson Stott or Alec Bohm to Boston in order to replenish their rotation depth. Lastly, the Red Sox have been linked to Bichette themselves, and it’s at least possible that, already in luxury tax territory for a penny, they decide to go in for a pound and sign him too.
As for Suárez, this must be an incredibly validating day. He was a relatively unheralded prospect out of Venezuela; the Phillies signed him for just $25,000 in 2012. He overcame injuries, fought his way into one of the best starting rotations in the game, and pitched brilliantly whenever he got the chance. He’s excelled in the playoffs, where he owns a 4-1 record with a 1.48 ERA and 3.02 FIP over eight starts and 11 appearances. Despite all that success, inconsistent playing time held down Suárez’s salaries in arbitration. He rejected the qualifying offer after making just $8.8 million in 2025 despite putting up $32.3 million in value based on some rough dollars-per-WAR calculations. For the first time ever, he’s about to be paid what he’s worth.
Since 2022, Suárez’s first season as a full-time starter, he’s run a 3.59 ERA and 3.57 FIP over 104 starts. He’s made his mark despite a series of minor injuries – an elbow strain, a hamstring strain, and recurring back issues – that kept him from ever reaching 30 starts in a season. He’s ranked 33rd in innings pitched over that period, and his 12.2 WAR rank 19th among all pitchers, right between Chris Sale and former teammate Jesús Luzardo. He ranks down toward the very bottom of the game in terms of velocity, so Suárez leads with his sinker, but he doesn’t lean on it. He throws six pitches, five of them at least 15% of the time. Although he regularly clocks 20th-percentile whiff rates, world-class command allows him to both avoid walks and strike out batters at a league-average rate. It also allows him to induce some of the weakest contact in the league while running excellent groundball rates.
Back in June, Michael Rosen tried to figure Suárez out in a piece titled “How Much Would You Pay Ranger Suárez?” He expressed his concerns while noting the various ways Suárez has succeeded to this point in his career. Suárez’s pitches tunnel exceptionally well according to Baseball Prospectus’ new pitch arsenal metrics, and the movement profiles of his sinker and cutter mirror each other, keeping hitters off balance and inducing weak contact. In recent years, as Suárez’s fastball velocity has dropped, his changeup velocity has dropped even further, and that bigger gap has paid dividends. Still, whether Suárez can succeed with even less velocity into his mid-30s is an open question. How slow can his cutter get before hitters are able to time it even after waiting to tell it apart from his sinker? How slow can his loopy curveball get before hitters have time to recover from their initial surprise when he drops it into the strike zone?
Suárez took the ninth spot on our Top 50 Free Agents list, and Ben Clemens nailed the contract terms exactly. The crowdsourced projection was $1 million per year lighter for a total of $125 million, while ZiPS pegs Suárez for five years and $124 million. That’s all to say that the Red Sox are paying Suárez just about exactly what he’s worth according to most estimations. Suárez has averaged almost exactly 3.0 WAR for the past five seasons, and the Red Sox clearly believe he can keep riding that wave. Courtesy of Dan Szymborski, here’s what ZiPS foresees for him over the length of the contract:
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 7 | 3.48 | 28 | 27 | 155.0 | 150 | 60 | 14 | 45 | 135 | 120 | 3.1 |
| 2027 | 11 | 8 | 3.55 | 27 | 26 | 147.0 | 146 | 58 | 14 | 43 | 125 | 118 | 2.8 |
| 2028 | 10 | 7 | 3.72 | 25 | 24 | 140.3 | 144 | 58 | 14 | 42 | 117 | 112 | 2.5 |
| 2029 | 9 | 8 | 3.84 | 23 | 22 | 129.0 | 137 | 55 | 14 | 40 | 105 | 109 | 2.0 |
| 2030 | 9 | 7 | 4.04 | 22 | 21 | 124.7 | 135 | 56 | 14 | 41 | 100 | 103 | 1.7 |
That’s 12.1 WAR over five years, which isn’t too shabby. As a point of reference, over the past five seasons, Luzardo put up 12.0 WAR, which was enough to make him the 34th-most valuable pitcher in the game.
You’ve likely read that signing Suárez amounts to picking sides in the never-ending battle between stuff and results, but that’s less true that you might think. It’s true that the models don’t like Suárez’s raw stuff; both Stuff+ and PitchingBot graded it as below average in 2025. However, both models absolutely adore Suárez’s control. Among pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched in 2025, he led baseball in Location+ and ranked fifth in PitchingBot Command. As a result, his overall pitching grades from those metrics are solidly above average. The stuff models really don’t hate him. And Suárez isn’t a FIP beater, either. His career FIP is just 0.16 points above his career ERA, because he avoids walks, runs average strikeout rates, and doesn’t allow many home runs. He just doesn’t bear the typical hallmarks of a player whose success looks mysterious and unsustainable.
Still, it’s not hard to understand that concern. Suárez is only 30, but his sinker averages just 90.1 mph, a drop of 1.6 mph over the past two seasons. It’s one of the slowest fastballs in the game, and he has been pitching like a crafty lefty for years. How far can his velocity drop before he gets to the point where all the craftiness in the world won’t save him? The Red Sox are gambling that we won’t find out before he turns 36.
Davy Andrews is a Brooklyn-based musician and a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @davyandrewsdavy.bsky.social.
I feel like he really needs someone to get him working on his conditioning. He’s had three back injuries since ‘22, two since July of ‘24. He’s always had that roly-poly look and I feel like that’s only going to become more of a thing as he ages.
P.s. in that same time frame, there’s also been a hamstring (‘23) and a groin (‘25).
Yet certified Adonis Giancarlo Stanton has had even more injuries. I don’t think body type aesthetics correlate much to injury risk.
Starling Marte is another Adonis that has been hurt a ton.
I think that the biggest risk is “too strong for your body” types like Stanton, Trout, Acuna, Tyler O’Neill, etc.
“The flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long.”
-Not Lao Tzu
On the other end, Jose Ramirez has hardly missed any time since breaking out.
Kris Bryant, Byron Buxton, and Corey Seager looked like they were grown in a lab to be baseball players and none of them avoided injuries
David Wells and Bartolo Colon strongly disagree
Colon reputedly had incredible core strength — it was something a number of his teammates talked about — but he certainly kept his six-pack well hidden. Behind, you might say, another whole case or two.
You don’t bring a six pack to a party, you bring a keg.
CC and El Sid nod
“You can’t pull fat” John Daly 3:16
I feel like you, or somebody made a very similiar comment regarding him earlier. Seems like a weird talking point. He isn’t in the best shape for a pro athlete, that is for sure. But he also is a pitcher. He also doesn’t throw that hard relatively. I don’t think anyone has a clue what is better for a pitcher. You see oft injured pitchers like Glasnow with a 12 pack, and then you see guys like Bartolo avoiding injury primarily. Back pain is almost entirely excess weight, so I agree with that point. But then we also see thin pitchers have the same issue, like deGrom.
Someone asked if the Red Sox had a plan in the comments section a day or two ago. I thought they did then, and now I do not.
And I like Ranger Suarez a lot.
The speculation is they might trade for Nico Hoerner or Matt Shaw, which would be good for them. But not if they give up Payton Tolle or Connelly Early.
And I like Nico Hoerner a lot.
Seriously, what is the plan here? If they sign Eugenio Suarez tomorrow and trade for Nico Hoerner and sign him to an extension, that would be a fantastic offseason for them. But now they have Crochet, Suarez, Early, Tolle, and eventually Bennett and that is an entire rotation just of left-handers.
I kind of hope we do see a Kristian Campbell-for-Hoerner swap, followed by a Red Sox extension.
If we get that then we will have the funny outcome of the Cubs signing the guy who works better for the Red Sox. And then trading the more valuable player from 2025 who also happens to be younger and would sign a cheaper extension back to them.
That would actually be an interesting deal for both sides. Campbell is crazy talented but kind of a mess and the Cubs will probably have an outfield slot available next year, gives him a chance to figure things out during this one. He’s probably more valuable than a year of Hoerner.
And Hoerner is one of the very few players who wouldn’t lose homers at Fenway. The xHR numbers on Statcast say he would have had 37 homers playing all his games at Fenway, exactly the same as his career numbers. Plus I assume at least a few extra balls that would have been outs other places will bounce off the wall. He actually has done a great job of pulling in the air more lately, he did it 17.5% of the time last year which is pretty good.
Do you think the Cubs (or anyone else) would be at all interested in Campbell? He’s signed for 7 years/$57 million, was demoted to AAA last year, and looks destined for a corner OF spot. I agree with you that he’s crazy talented and I think some teams would probably take on the contract, but I don’t think they’re trading value for it.
I have no idea. I would guess he’s pretty polarizing.
I think he’s probably a 50 for me. If you were to compare him to the guys who already have been on prospect lists this year he seems like he is definitely below Josue De Paula and probably in the same range as Braden Montgomery and Lazaro Montes. Guys with tons of talent and huge risks who are probably in a corner outfield spot. If you start looking at the broader pool of offense-first position players I’d put him below slightly below Sal Stewart and Ralphy Velazquez but around the same spot as Michael Arroyo.
If you wanted to downgrade him to an FV45+ I wouldn’t object to that. I do think that Tolle and Early are better, but I think those two might be 55s.
But I also think that one year of Nico Hoerner isn’t super valuable either.
TBH this is why the sox should keep Campbell. He was a 60 FV this time last year and a consensus top 10 prospect (some even argued #1 overall).
He had a really odd season where he stopped hitting the ball hard. Theres probably way more value in seeing if he can get back to his old hard hit metrics/the things that made him a 60FV rather than trading him at 50FV value (and maybe less than that if factoring in salary)
Like, the upside here is they have a long term RH star to pair w Anthony, both signed for a decade. The downside is a bit of wasted money. Given how LHH their lineup is, they really need that long term RHH compliment that can hit at the top of a lineup.
It would be a fantastic offseason for them if they stopped today and did nothing further
They now have nearly two months to make adjustments, reallocate things, and make it even better if they so choose.
Their plan is simple: acquire good players, don’t spend way more than you need to, and always keep in mind that the best teams historically have had depth and redundancy
Still need a 3b. The simplest solution would be to go all in on Suarezes and sign Eugenio for a year or two.
Suarez has power that will play anywhere, but I’d have to imagine he is going to run into a lot of doubles as well. I watched nearly every at bat he had last year, and if he hit the ball (which for a period of time was rare) it was usually either a HR or a fly ball that the outfielders backed up on.His hit chart is actually pretty insane, it is either home runs, flares to right, or doubles down the line. If you want to have some fun toggle between his 2025 and 2024 hit charts. He no longer hits anything for a base hit to the pullside that is in front of the outfielders. That makes me think he might run into a few more doubles and home runs there.
I like Eugenio Suarez a lot so I’m a little biased. But I just went to his Statcast page and he does not seem to lose any homers to Fenway’s homer-suppressing dimensions at all in the expected home runs by park.
From 2023 to 2025 he hit 104 homers, and if he played 100% of his games at Fenway he would have hit 97. That is not a big drop at all. I’m pretty sure that for most right handed sluggers it would take a good 10% or more off of the total, and quite a bit more for left-handed power hitters.
Suarezes for everyone!
I’d say they’re 1-2 moves away from a fantastic offseason. Deal an OF for value and add good 2b or 3B and they’re in great shape.
(I also think they need another Major League ready catcher, and Caratini would fit nicely. But I don’t think they agree about that.)
I know he had a down year, but the Sox wouldnt trade Campbells upside for 1 year or Nico/Nico with a market-rate extension
He’s still probably the highest upside RHB in their organization
I would much rather trade him than Tolle or Early. But I think the Red Sox are probably going to trade one of them.
Perhaps, but given Nico is a rental, I wouldn’t trade any of them in that trade.
They don’t really have to trade anyone if they don’t want to.
They don’t have to do anything, but it would be super advisable to get at least one starting caliber middle infielder or third baseman.
I think they should get two, but what do I know. I didn’t run a team that only got 0.7 fWAR out of its second basemen last year, and -2.2 in 2024, and -0.5 in 2023. Maybe they have figured out that cheaping out at second base is the new market efficiency.
(I’m also not running a team counting on healthy years from Story and Mayer)
I am resigned to the strong probability that you are correct. I actually would have been happier to see them get a shot than spending $130M for Suarez, who I think is a good pitcher, in the style of Jamie Moyer.
In that case he’s got to learn 2Β οr 3B. There are no other open positions with Contreras’s arrival….unless they want him to catch.
Would the Cubs do that? Am I the only one who thinks that Campbell currently has zero or negative trade value?
I wouldn’t say zero, but damn near close to it.
Really? I think he’s a corner outfielder but he’s got a chance to be a good one defensively because of the athleticism, and I think he might have been playing hurt after he got demoted to AAA. It’s not too hard to imagine him getting to 120 wRC+ and putting up 3 wins a year regularly.
Someone in the range of Randy Arozarena / Seiya Suzuki / Taylor Ward / Stephen Piscotty (back when he was good) seem like high-end but reasonable comps. Even the guys I am thinking of as less optimistic comps had a breakthrough year like Avisail Garcia, Randal Grichuk, and Xavier Nady. I’d be willing to take the risk that the winds up in the latter category on the chance he’s more like the first group.
I am also convinced at this point that there is no plan. Maybe it’s one of those classic throw-spaghetti-against-the-wall type of plans?
How is there no plan? They went into this offseason needing a #2 starter and a 1B. They got those and then picked up another #2 along the way when they missed out on retaining their 3B. Now they’ll either sign Eugenio to play 3rd, trade from their pitching depth to add a 3B, or if they can’t find a deal they like, keep their hoard of pitching and roll with some combination of Mayer, Rafaela, and R. Gonzalez at 2B and 3B to start the season and maybe add a guy at the trade deadline if necessary.
Any of those outcomes would mean having a great overall offseason that identified and improved on the teams weaknesses from last season.
I’d just go with Mayer and Gonzalez at 3B and 2B and hoard pitchers. Dodgers basically have no one at 2B, and Muncy was hurt a lot. They needed all the pitchers they had.
I hope they retain all of their pitchers and sign Eugenio, but they’re already above the second luxury tax threshold so this seems somewhat unlikely. Just rolling with Mayer, Rafaela, and Gonzalez would be exciting and certainly wouldn’t kill them. If a pitcher is moved, it’s possible we could see something like Bello for Paredes.
100% in agreement with your synopsis. This dyed-in-the-wool Red Sox fan is loving this off-season and there should be more to come, maybe a lot more.
This is going to sound strange, but having an offseason plan is overrated. I’d rather have a front office that’s flexible and can adapt to changing conditions on the ground.
“Everyone has a plan until Alex Bregman signs with the Cubs.” – Not Mike Tyson
I like this vibe. Although Mike Tyson did say something similar.
The plan is still the same, even without retaining Bregman. Load up on pitching, upgrade the 1B mix, and find some way to shore up the infield. There’s still time and I’m guessing everyone’s waiting to see where Bichette lands before we see the other infielders move around. Still a few weeks before pitchers and catchers have to report. Plenty of time for a flurry of transactions!
I’m fairly confused by just how much starting pitching they have added. Obviously they will likely trade someone but it’s odd to have traded for two starters and then sign another one with three returning from injury, two prospects one of who performed very well once he reached the major’s last year and whatever they think of Kyle Harrison in addition to Crochet and Bello.
I actually forgot about the players returning from injury, so let’s run it down:
Locks: Crochet, Suarez, Gray
Bubble: Bello, Oviedo
Probably should be starting in MLB, but will start in minors: Early, Tolle
Returning from injury: Houck, Crawford, Sandoval
Optionable Depth: Drohan
Probably a reliever: Sandlin, Uberstine
Ready by September: Bennett
Who Knows: Harrison
I have always thought that it was impossible to have too much starting pitching so I don’t think this is too much.
But I do think it is super weird how this has played out. A few days after Bregman signs with the Cubs they turn around and spend that money on another starter? Was this always the plan? This does not seem like a plan, it seems like a budget. That they had a budget for spending this offseason, but the shopping list after Bregman was ill-defined.
Crawford and Sandoval will both be ready for the start of spring training, but I don’t think houck will be back until mid season.
Crawford, Sandoval, Bello, and Oviedo for two rotation spots. Maybe Oviedo goes to the bullpen and Crawford goes to AAA with tolle and early. There has to be a trade coming, right?
I’m not sure that Crawford, Sandoval, or Oviedo have the early edge over Early for a rotation spot. I’m not even sure that Bello has the edge over him.
That’s not how Breslow rolls. He won’t be afraid to use Sandoval or Crawford in the pen. Or to use Tolle, Harrison, or Oviedo in the pen if relievers go down. I could see something like this:
SP: Crochet
SP: Suarez
SP: Gray
SP: Bello
SP: Early
RP: Chapman
RP: Whitlock
RP: Slaten
RP: Sandoval
RP: Crawford
RP: Hicks
RP: Weissert
RP: Moran
40 Man Depth:
I have no familiarity with most of these players, but I do know what I saw the Dodgers do in the playoffs last season. An org that commits to role flexibility for pitchers is going to have an easier time assembling a roster and an easier time winning games. Get good pitchers, and then figure out who pitches what inning.
I say this as a Phillies fan who loves Ranger and hates the idea that we couldn’t keep him because “there’s no space in the rotation”.
Supposedly they quietly shopped Bello earlier this off-season.
Bello is a lock if he’s on the team.
It’s a problem that they’re all lefties, but good lefties? Also the offseason isn’t over yet. Don’t overthink it.
I would go as far as whatever it is before “put money on it” that the Red Sox and Cubs do not align for Hoerner/Shaw and its barely been discussed. The Red Sox have fantastic SP depth, can probably move someone, but the Cubs are at most curious abt Peyton Tolle – probably most thru a draft lens – rather than falling over themselves. There’s more to winning baseball than being young and cheap folks
I’m not even a Hoerner fan and see he’s cartoonishly underrated in these trade fantasies of other teams. I get it – tons of GBs yada yada but it works out year after year and there’s not much to be scared of for 2026. Pretty much the only way they’d move Hoerner this offseason is if Marte was out there and that was never really the case. Cubs are taking the pick on Hoerner tho so there’s still the FA route!
Well, sure. It’s being young and cheap in spots so you can afford old and/or expensive in others.
“Years of control” is a currency in modern baseball. Extracting value from pre-arb & arb guys to allow you to carry a mega-contract (or six) is often the name of the game.
I think the plan was pretty straightforward:
Add top of the rotation (#1-2) pitching.Add a right handed corner infield bat.Re-sign Bregman or replace him.They did the first two, have missed on the 3rd so far. With the Suarez signing, they’ve added more top of the rotation pitching and possibly freed up other pitching to include in a deal for Bregman’s replacement. The other Suarez and Bichette are still also available as replacements.
They just have to stick the landing to have reached their goal.
I think Donovan is more likely than Shaw or Hoerner.
But he’s worse than Hoerner. Hoerner might be a better SS than Story.
Hoerner is awesome. Super underrated. The Red Sox should go after him in free agency if they don’t trade for him now and he’s available.
Imagine how crazy this would of sounded a year ago with how bad everyone thought Story was cooked.
That’s why I am confused about people praising Boston’s offseason. Contreras was a good get at a great price, but the rest of the infield has huge question marks. Expecting Trevor Story to repeat his health and Romy Gonzalez to repeat his offensive performance both feel unwise. Then you have Marcelo Mayer masquerading as a third baseman, and no other established infield depth.
The Red Sox spending $130 million on a position where they were already strong while ignoring positions where they project to be weak is classic Breslow. He seems to just focus on value with no consideration for fit. They have an abundance of outfielders but the weakest infield in the division, and their rotation is primary left-handed in a division of primarily right-handed bats.
I don’t think they’re expecting Story to be healthy. But he currently is healthy and good enough to start. Mayer is not a sure thing but he’s a good enough prospect that you want to give him a chance. He is more likely headed for 2B but he seemed fine at 3B last year as well.
As for depth, Gonzalez, Hamilton, and Sogard are about as good as you can hope for.
With all that said, they really are one very good infielder short of where they need to be.
Mayer is a good shortstop prospect, but I wouldn’t be confident enough in his bat to play him every day at third base. Romy is useful in the short side of a platoon, as he’s great against LHPs but pretty dreadful against RHPs and below average defensively. Sogard is passable depth, while I don’t see Hamilton being much more than a pinch runner.
So I would argue that the Red Sox still need two good infielders. If they sign Eugenio Suárez and trade for Brendan Donovan (who struggles against LHPs) then they’re a strong World Series contender.
I had no idea how much Donovan struggled against LHPs until I looked it up earlier this week.
He looks like a platoon-plus guy. Someone like Jesus Sanchez, Josh Lowe, or Luke Raley are strict platoon guys. Donovan should have a platoon partner because a career 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching is not good and he only was at 75 last year. But his positional versatility is one of his strengths, so if his platoon partner is hurt or a starter at another position is hurt there’s a decent chance he’ll be better vs LHP than whoever your fringe utility infielder is who is hanging out in AAA.
Eh, almost all of the Yankees’ not-transcendent bats are LHB. (Does it really matter whether you’re throwing a lefty or a righty at Judge?)
Point taken otherwise.
Stanton is still pretty scary against LHPs for the half a season that he’s available, and Judge has been ~25 points of wRC+ better against LHPs as well over the last two seasons.
For the O’s, Taylor Ward and Tyler O’Neill are massively better against LHPs. That being said, I didn’t realize until just now that Alonso has a reverse platoon split for his career.
He has massive platoon splits, and the Red Sox seem to think they have a lot of those guys already.
But IMO they should get Donovan and Eugenio Suarez. He would be a great fit because he can play both second and third base, so even if two of Suarez, Story, and Mayer are hurt they’ll have both Donovan and Romy Gonzalez before they even think about moving Rafaela back to the infield.
(I saw a news story where Breslow said they didn’t want to do that anymore. I feel like this is something all addicts say before they go back to it again)
Hate to break it to you, but Suarez does not get hurt. Missed 19 games once, but nearly every other season he missed 3-6 games
Also he has been around a lot longer than it seems. He would be the funniest outcome ever of all the guys who could hit 500 home runs. Lets say he just hits a projection, 35 home runs, 230/309/449 110wRC+. But he is on a 3 year deal, then 28 year after, 25 year after that. Well shit he is at 403 hrs and still 36. But you look at what he does now, complete sell out pull down the line. Imagine he goes 40-35-30. Now he is 36 w 440 home runs. All this from a guy who came up as a slap hitting SS/utility glove. Like clearly still an absurdly unlikely path to 500, but you’d have to give it 2-5%. 400 seems more likely than not, which seems crazy given the odds last year (before he hit 49 more).
Even better! I like Eugenio Suarez, but I think I already said that.
I certainly hope you are correct.
I’m pleasantly surprised and confused by Mr. Breslow’s latest action. A very good rotation just got very better. Adding to a strength is fun and Ranger Suarez was the best in 2025 at creating pillowy soft contact. Makes sense, sorta.
However my beloved Red Sox still continue the maddening odyssey of finding Pedey’s replacement. That quest for the keystone has been ongoing for nearly a decade. I would love it if Nico Hoerner filled that void. I like his game. I like it a LOT. But, I don’t want to trade one of Early of Tolle for a 1-yr rental. Heck, I don’t wanna trade Tolle for anyone. He rapidly became one of my favorite baseballers last year. His interviews are even better than his fastball, and that’s saying something because it’s one heckuva heater. I’d rather see Breslow trade from the outfield surplus (plus non-Tolle prospects) to address the infield deficiency.
Breslow faces some tough choices, but I expect a move. The Sox have some serious pitching depth and not enough outfield, DH, or rotation musical chairs for everyone to sit on. I have a feeling something big is brewing on the trade front
Yeah that’s the right way of thinking about it. The fact is, this is a totally fair deal and he makes the team better but it is super weird anyway.
So another lefty, who’s constantly pretty out of shape, aging, injury prone, low velocity that has recently declined further, and has never pitched more than 157.1 innings in a season. Sounds like money could have been better spent elsewhere.
I realized he’s never once qualified for SP awards like ERA titles, etc, and only came close 3 times. At age 30. Oh and the admittedly great 1.48 postseason ERA (although in a pretty small sample size) comes with much more realistic 3.36 xFIP. Will be happy to eat my words if he performs up to this contact but I doubt it.
I still don’t get this stuff about a pitcher being out of shape. Why do I keep reading this in the comments? He is a pitcher who is “crafty”. Do you want him spending all offseason at driveline trying to hit 100mph? I mean maybe, that is an honest question. I am not sure. He seems like a guy who pitches well when available, pitches an “old school” style, and throws strikes. Soft tossing lefties who throw good secondaries tend to age pretty well. He has had months where he looked downright elite. Weird to be mad about your team signing a good MLB pitcher when there are so few to go around.
I think it’s more about being in shape enough to start 30+ game a year for most of the next five years.
It starts to make a bit more sense if you have depth for miles that you can afford to pay a guy for 20 good starts and a sparkling postseason resume.
he’s 19th in fwar (a counting stat) since 2022 despite the time he’s missed. If you think he’s going to get a lot worse, that’s always possible since he’s a pitcher, but I don’t think people realize how good he’s been since he started starting. (i.e. basically the same war as Burnes, Snell, or Sale over that time frame)
I just don’t understand how you go 5 years $130MM here but don’t go 5 years $180 or so for Bregman: confounding process
I actually like this deal better for the Red Sox than the Bregman deal for the Cubs.
I don’t know that $180M would have been enough for Bregman anyway, what he wanted was a no-trade clause.
That’s fair / tough to know if some amount of additional money would have smoothed out the NTC sticking point.
Ranger’s trends under the hood just scare the crap out of me: declining velo, declining GB rate, recurring back problems….
He’s a fine pitcher now / this Sox fan won’t be angry when he’s on the bump in big games but I’ll be puzzled if there’s no infield upgrade to come. The Sox claim to operate with finite budgetary resources and this feels like a strangely risky profile to suddenly commit 5 years at substantial dollars on when they’ve been balking at doing so for others that seem safer for quite some time.
These modestly large outlays for second tier FA’s feel like sucker’s bets: maybe a piece FG should look into doing? I’d love to be wrong 🙂
This is always the problem, isn’t it? It’s not that they spent the money, it’s that then they talk later about how they can’t afford basic upgrades. Or you could just not have done this deal in the first place!
That said I like Ranger Suarez so I think his time in Boston will probably work out.
Doesn’t apply to this. But did you see the Rendon label getting tagged to Tucker? Teammates saying he “doesn’t like baseball” etc.
Rendon’s problems really had nothing to do with him not liking baseball, he was incredibly productive while considering baseball to be just a job. It was just a matter of his body breaking down.
Yeah, it sounds like Rendon’s hip has or will soon disintegrate. There’s a point of no return there that he probably passed years ago.
I don’t really know how to tell who is just hurt and who isn’t rehabbing vigorously but I typically assume that they are actually hurt until compelling evidence emerges to the contrary. I might have a different opinion if I was in a position to give him a 10 year deal though.
Age is very important to the Red Sox front office, which I believe comes down from the ownership. Bregman is two years older and would be signed through 36 instead of 34 for Suarez. He was also pretty mediocre after coming back from his injury. I imagine these were the most important factors in their decision.
They may also think Suarez plus a 2B/3B they can acquire with their excess pitching depth is a better plan than signing Bregman. I hope so, anyway.
My personal belief is that the Cubs are going to be burned pretty badly for giving Bregman a deal that, while not as egregious, looks to me a lot like the one Xander Bogaerts received. Not quite washed up but about to begin a serious decline.
Based on? The usual vibes and age/non-rookie contract algorithm?
The Alex Bregman who returned from his injury was barely a shell of the player I have watched for many seasons. He might, very possibly, rebound from that sharp drop off performance, but he isn’t getting any younger and I see the deal as very risky. I have enough confidence in Mayer and Gonzalez to not be upset with missing out on Bregman.
So it is the usual: standard vibes and feels over a non-rookie contract
I have come to the conclusion that Breslow is a ruthless businessman who does not let emotions get in the way of any transaction. He sets a prospect or dollar price for every player and if he is asked to exceed that price in prospects or money he simply lets the deal fall through. Bregman went above his budget so no deal. Suarez fell within a fair range so he went ahead. I also dont think he is too fussed with what type of player he gets as he just feels he can trade away surplus. Everyone is “stock” to him. I doubt that he is popular amongst the players but he is slowly building a very strong team.
I think he would frustrate the heck out of Boras for this very reason as Boras wants the teams to get emotional and then cave in to a higher price to the point where they appear to be bidding against themselves. Dealing with Breslow the conversation likely went like this “We will pay 165 million on Bregman without a no trade clause and if you dont like it Mr Boras then go elsewhere”.
I suspect that’s exactly how it went. Back on Saturday at Fenway Fest, it was said by multiple people within the org (or connected to the org) that an “aggressive” offer had been made and the ball was in Breggy’s court. Even Cora publicly said something along those lines. All indications were that Breslow made his best and final offer, take it or leave it. Then when Bregman got a better offer from the Cubs that met his needs with the no-trade clause and took that instead. The weird thing is that according to Breslow’s statements afterward (from his email Q&A session), it sure seems like Brez had no idea how much Bregman valued the no-trade clause, and that it was a deciding factor in the decision to sign with the Cubs. Well that, and a lesser amount of deferred $$
Whatever the case, it’s very believable that Breslow simply puts forth a well-researched, solid offer to his free agent targets, but as a strategy he does not participate in bidding wars. He’d rather rest on the laurels of his offer being adequate enough within the budget he is greelighted to play with. Then accepts the outcome and proceeds or pivots accordingly
Weren’t the Sox going to trade an outfielder? Now they have a surplus in the outfield and on the mound. Smells like something will happen soon.
Yes, that seems like it would make the most sense at this point.
I understand that you can never have too much pitching, but I also know that a team needs to put major league caliber players at 2nd and 3rd if they expect to be in the chase come September. This abundance of riches has to be leading to some trade before spring training begins and it seems that one of the young lefties, Early and Tolle, could be the foundation to return Donovan or Paredes. One solid infielder, even another Suarez, would put a nice shine on this off-season.
I understand that Suárez has been one of the best in baseball at limiting hard contact, but I was apprehensive about him possibly joining the Orioles because I’m simply not confident in that continuing as his velocity continues to drop.
Sadtrombone made a good point in an earlier discussion when he said that it’s easier to trust in something you can easily identify like velocity or movement than something harder to quantify like deception. While I understand the value of tunneling, I would worry about this type of commitment to someone whose success depends entirely upon it. If he had an elite pitch like Framber’s sinker and curveball then I would have been more optimistic about such a hefty commitment, but he doesn’t. As a result, I’m glad that the Red Sox are taking this risk instead of the Orioles.
I think Suarez will be fine. He’s a sinker ball pitcher who also throws about 5 other pitches the he commands well. He’s already been extremely effective despite his velo being worse than 93% of MLB. That’s because in addition to his sinker being quite good, he locates and mixes speeds well of his other offerings. Hitters facing him have no difficulty making frequent contact, but also frequently guess wrong about what’s coming and are consistently off-balance. It’s possible to have a successful low-velo career when the command is so dang good. My only concern with him is, will he make 30 starts or continue to get injured? That’s a risk worth taking though for a win-now club that is betting on a pitcher who delivers on the big stage in the playoffs
I think I said that in a conversation about Connelly Early, who I also really like and who IIRC you are skeptical of. And who seems to be getting squeezed out by Suarez.
I don’t know what to make of all this, except that I like Suarez and also like Tolle and Early and really hope that all of them get to start regularly in 2026 for someone. I think these guys are all fun in different ways. Maybe I just like lefties who have One Weird Trick, like tunnelling or extension.
If I ran an MLB team I would run far away from Framber after that late season thing. I am not a guy who says that lightly either. I forgive people for w.e, but when you see a pitcher intentionally try to hurt his catcher that seems like a bridge too far. This isn’t like a fight in the dugout, or argument over cards. In game he decided to intentionally cross up and hurt his catcher.
Someone free Kyle Harrison? Mets should get on it
The Red Sox let go of their entire group of left-handed relievers during this off-season. I think Harrison is being penciled in to a spot in the bullpen.
Yeah, I think Tolle and Harrison will see plenty of time in the pen this year. There’s also a good chance we see Sandoval as some kind of long reliever type
Harrison, Jovani Moran, and Tyler Sameniego, probably.
Maybe also Sandoval.
Left handed relievers are one of the few spots where you can still get a good player at this point in the offseason though. Justin Wilson and Danny Coulombe both threw pretty well last year. Wilson even did it for the Red Sox! Although it sounds like he’s thinking about hanging it up.