Revival by Rios, His Contract, and, Yes, Sample Size
The 2010 season isn’t going the way the Chicago White Sox had hoped. They are currently 7.5 games behind the Twins, and 5.5 behind the surprising Tigers. It’s still early, but given the talent gap between the Twins and White Sox, and the unlikelihood of the AL Wild Card coming out of a division other than the East, the White Sox playoff chances are fading rapidly. Starts at DH by Juan Pierre, Zombie Mark Kotsay, and, above all, Zombie Omar Vizquel are a fitting summary of the troublesome season on South Side.
There have been bright spots. Paul Konerko and, in particular, Andruw Jones have been hitting better than they have in years. One hitter whose season is off to an excellent start while not getting much press (although I’m sure White Sox fans are aware) is Alex Rios. Rios, who came over in a waiver claim from Toronto last August, has been on fire offensively, hitting .308/.350/.564 (.401 wOBA) while stealing bases efficiently and playing good center field defense. This is probably a surprise to many given his terrible 2009, when the Blue Jays let him go for nothing in return other than someone willing to take on the remainder of the seven-year, $70 million dollar contract that extends through 2014 (with a 2015 club option). While many analysts criticized the original contract as well as the White Sox/Blue Jays decisions to pick him up/let him go, as Dave Cameron and Tom Tango showed last season, all three decisions were justifiable at the time they were made.
Rios didn’t get better upon arrival in Chicago, to say the least, and finished 2009 with a horrific .247/.296/.395 line (.306 wOBA), with his fielding nowhere near his usual standard. Some probably thought the Jays had pawned off an albatross. So far in 2010, however, there are no obvious “luck” indicators for Rios. His current average on balls in play (.312) is actually lower than his career average (.319), and he’s hitting plenty of line drives without it being unsustainable. His home run per fly ball rate is a bit up, but not excessively, and it may be that he is better suited to his new home park. Hit Tracker doesn’t see him as overly lucky, in any case. Rios walk rate is down a bit and his O-Swing% is up a little, so those are worth tracking.
I doubt anyone thinks that Rios’ true offensive talent is really .400 wOBA. ZiPS sees his current true talent (“rest of season”) as .350 wOBA. Given his performance so far, if he hits .350 with average defense (to add to his current +7 figure) for the rest of the season, he will be worth about five wins in 2010. That’s a great deal for the White Sox money this season (Rios is owed $9.7 million guaranteed).
What about going forward? From 2011 to 2014, Chicago owes Rios about $49 million dollars. Assuming a gentle salary inflation (7%) and 0.5 WAR a season decline, they’re paying for a player who will be worth somewhere between 3 and 3.5 wins in 2011. Assuming Rios is a .350 wOBA hitter, that makes him a +12 hitter over 700 PA. I currently estimate Rios to be about a +4 position neutral defender. +12 hitting + 4 defense +25 AL replacement level all times 85% playing time = a 3.5 WAR player. This is a decent deal for the Sox. Not great, it isn’t as though the contract would be easy to trade if they wanted to do so. But it hardly looks like an albatross at this point.
A more interesting facet of this whole thing has to do with sample size. Yes, I know, that gets mentioned here all the time. The ZiPS RoS projections incorporate the proper amounts of regression for the various components, so it isn’t as if the current .350 wOBA projection is getting “fooled” the hot start. The point about sample size I want to make isn’t about 2010, though. Rather, it is about the overreaction that many had to Rios’ 2009. Rios was bad in 2009. However, from 2006-2008 he was worth an average of 4.5 wins a season. That history did not disappear during or after 2009. So many times we get wrapped up in pointing out that the current season is a “small sample size” that we forget that even a whole season (Rios had 633 PA in 149 games in 2009) tells us surprisingly little about a player’s true talent. That isn’t to say that 2009 should get thrown out as an ‘outlier’. But once previous performance and regression to the mean are taken into account, even the significance of a full season can be exaggerated.
I’m not sure the White Sox front office was thinking in exactly these terms when the picked Rios up off of waivers — I’m sure they consulted their scouts heavily, as well they should have. However it came about, they rightly understood that there was more to Rios than his 2009 performance, and got a very good player at a reasonable price without giving up talent. 2009 counts, but it wasn’t the whole story — or the whole sample.
Matt Klaassen reads and writes obituaries in the Greater Toronto Area. If you can't get enough of him, follow him on Twitter.
*In my George Takei voice*
“Ohhh myyyy…:
Two semi-positive White Sox articles almost back to back…what’s goin’ on around here?
Also, there is a theory that Kenny claimed Rios to block Detroit.
Not sure why that theory has any credence.
“What’s goin’ on around here?” What’s going on is that Fangraphs is less biased towards/against particular teams than its (biased) critics claim.
It’s certainly true that some teams are more interesting at any particular time than others, and just now there are a couple of interesting stories involving the White Sox that happen to look “positive” if you’re a White Sox fan. (And undoubtedly “negative” and therefore worthy of criticism if you’re a Twins or Tigers fan).
I think there were some articles last year written here that Rios was not dead when he was hitting like crap with Toronto.
I bought into those theories and it turns out that they were absolutely correct, along with me. 🙂
Not dead…just didn’t give a shit, lol.
what, you mean he cought the dreaded “mannyramirezitis” for a time?
that’s a balanced piece. i still would back the position heavily that over the life of the alex rios contract, he will end up not being a good value from a WAR perspective for at least the Whitesox
if nothing else, ozzie’s…. umm… eccentricities make the downside risk much higher than the upside potential.
I gambled on value OF this season, relying quite a bit on BABIP. At 28, Rios’ ’09 was 36 points below his career low, which made me a buyer, along with his double digit steals/homers and low price tag.
Of course, I sometimes took Pence over McCutchen, but what can you do?
just wanted to give you a heads up on a typo in the last paragraph
” That history did not get disappear during or after 2009.”
Whenever FG looks at salary value, it seems they always assume 0.5 WAR annual decline for future years, regardless of age. Does this come from any sort of calculation, and how accurate of a number is this?
It would be usefull to have some sort of chart showing the average WAR decline as related to service time, player age, and position. A lookup chart similar to old trig charts or something.
Or if this has been analysed and 0.5 WAR regression is accurate, could you post a link?
That’s the general decline (average decline in skills + attrition) posited by Tango, although I’ll have to look up the various links later. If someone else wants to post some or all of them, thanks in advance.
I’m sure you can find them by doing a search at the Book Blog.
One is left wondering just how good the 2010 BlueJays could have been if Rolen, Rios, and Halladay were still around, 3 excellent players off to fantastic starts.
You mean like the 2009 Jays?
Bautista, Snider, and Lewis would all lose playing time if Rios and Rolen were still around.
Rios is just too unmotivated imho. He got complacent after he got his big contract.
This year he only got going against the blue jays, and I think the fans really giving him the gears got to him, and he’s killed the Jays in return so far.
He’s batted 382/400/735 against Toronto and 283/330/??? against everybody else. 3 of his 7 HR are against Toronto.
haha. the article emphasizes the importance of sample size and then you go cite some 12 AB sample as some kind of smoking gun; fail I say.
Why would he be more motivated on a mediocre ChiSox team than he was on a mediocre Jays team? I guess mediocrity can occasionally get a team to 85 wins and a division title in the Central, whereas it leaves you 15 games out in the East. (Answered my own question, yay!)
Naturally since this is the White Sox, Rios will go into a prolonged slump at the very time Gordon Beckham and Carlos Quentin remember they are capable of hitting the ball, fans will somehow blame the pitching staff, and Kenny Williams will find a MVP candidate off the streets while simultaneously trading for Alfonso Soriano.
Rios needed the change of scenery and is not a player with his head in the game the entire season. Sample size or not, he has hit some big/important HRs against his former team, especially when he was being booed the loudest. The Ozzie Guillen effect can surely take some credit for getting Rios’ ass into gear. An example of him possibly being actually motivated for a change this year is a story I heard where Rios began working out last offseason…FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HIS CAREER!
His skillset is undoubtedly legit.
Oh god, the dreaded “started to workout” this player is totally different argument. Apparantly you missed the FG spring training “hope” article. Rios is what he is.
I don’t think we can put a true ceiling on how Rios can go. For certain he has corrected his swing and the line drive rate is up . he’s also running semi-wildly, so 35-40 steals are well within reach. The power come natural with the almost perfect swing he possesses. Big numbers could be the order of the day in ’10
Having said that he has hit 5 hitless games in his last 6 and while very short term, its a small cause for concern. The downside here is the Sox don’t hit as a team, making it difficult for any one individual to shine. I still like Rios very much
wow, awesome blog post.Really looking forward to read more. Really Cool.
Sometimes you can’t just look at stats. Rios was a bad player to have in the clubhouse, and was in a rut when the jays moved him. He is a five-tool player, but he wasn’t performing and had alot of money left on his contract. It is a win-win for both teams, if Alex can keep performing like he is currently, but that is a big if.
Also, to calculate his worth from 2011-2014 based on this years early stats is misleading. Rios is a guy who consistently changes his swing and stance when he gets into a funk, making it difficult for him to get into a groove and be consistent.
hopefully the rios scouts are still on the staff and the mark teahan scouts are gone.