Rickie Weeks, Mystery Man
Apparently, February 16th was International Sign Your Breakout Star And Hope It Wasn’t A Fluke Day. Before the news broke that Jose Bautista cashed in on his power surge with the Blue Jays, the Milwaukee Brewers signed Rickie Weeks to a four-year, $38.5 million contract with an option that could up the deal to five years and $50 million.
Unlike the Jays, the Brewers aren’t gambling on a guy with questions about his ability to hit. Instead, they’ve decided to bet big on a guy with an entirely different problem.
The issue with Weeks is his lack of durability. The 28-year-old second baseman played 160 games last year and racked up 754 plate appearances. That was just the second time in eight pro seasons that he cracked 135 total games played (he played in 151 games between Triple-A and the big leagues in 2004). Here’s a full list of Weeks’ injuries since his 2003 debut with the Brewers, courtesy of the excellent Baseball Injury Tool:
60-DAY DL
2006: Torn tendon, right wrist. Missed 69 days.
2009: Torn sheath, left wrist. Missed 140 days.
15-DAY DL
2007: Inflammation, right wrist. Missed 19 days.
2009: Sprain, left knee. Missed 15 days.
Throw in seven day-to-day diagnoses that include dings to Weeks’ thigh, hand (twice), wrist, and face, and he has missed a total of 253 regular-season games due to injuries. If staying healthy is a skill, Weeks would be below the Mendoza Line for staying upright.
There’s no question that the Brewers are paying, in large part, for Weeks’ most recent season, one which saw him hit .269/.366/.464 and produce 6.1 Wins Above Replacement. That six win season was twice as good as Weeks’ next-best effort, a 3.1 WAR campaign in 2007. His next best year was 2008, when he barely managed a two win season. His offensive performance has been pretty consistent: Weeks’ .334 wOBA looks like an outlier given his .365, .365 and .368 figures in 2007, 2009, and 2010. The issue has always been injuries, and missed time.
So we — and more importantly, the Brewers — face a major challenge in trying to project Weeks’ future value. We can use Tom Tango’s contract value calculator, which uses a standard aging curve and subtracts half a win per season, while also assuming an MLB-wide salary inflation rate of 5% per year. The problem is where to start our projection.
For instance, let’s say Weeks’ 2010 was “real”, and that the Brewers were paying for him to keep doing that into the future. If he loses half a win per season, with 2010’s 6.1 WAR result the baseline, what’s his four-year projection? (We’re ignoring year five for the moment; Weeks’ option year would pay him $11.5 million, but the club can void 2015 if he does not make 600 plate appearances in 2014 or 1,200 plate appearances over 2013-14 combined. So…yeah, good chance that doesn’t happen.)
2011- +5.6 WAR, $5 million per win, $28.0 value
2012 – +5.1 WAR, $5.25M/win, $26.78 million value
2013 – +4.6 WAR, $5.51M/win, $25.36 million value
2014 – +4.1 WAR, $5.79M/win, $23.73 million value
Under this scenario, Weeks will have earned more than $104 million in value — almost three times the total value of the contract he just signed.
What if we assume Weeks is half that good, just a 2.55 WAR player (about halfway between his 2007 and 2008 production):
2011 – +2.80 WAR, $5 million per win, $14.0 million value
2012 – +2.30 WAR, $5.25M/win, $12.08 million value
2013 – +1.8 WAR, $5.51M/win, $9.92 million value
2014 – +1.3 WAR, $5.69M/win, $7.52 million value
Under this scenario, Weeks will earn $43.52 million over his four-year deal — just slightly more than what the Brewers will be paying him. In other words, if he’s less than half as good in 2011 than he was in 2010, and regresses gradually from there, on paper it would seem a fair deal.
Ah, if only it were that simple.
After rating him a below-average defender for every year of his career, Ultimate Zone Rating suddenly pegged Weeks as saving 3 runs more than average in 2009. In 2010, he snared another positive UZR of +1.8. Which is funny, because in Strat-O-Matic parlance, he’s always resembled a 2B-4 — a markedly below-average gloveman at a key, up-the-middle position. Total Zone Rating agrees with Strat’s diagnosis: For his career, Weeks shows a -64 TZ rating, including a -11 last season.
If UZR’s wrong and Weeks really is (still) a below-average defensive player, that makes him less valuable now, and assuming the trend holds, less valuable in the future. It also introduces the possibility that Weeks might become too much of a defensive liability to stay at second base. If he’s patrolling left field a couple years from now, the deal becomes a much bigger risk.
The other problem, one which a value calculator can’t fully address, is the timing of the deal. Paying one player full market value can be a reasonable thing to do, especially if that player’s marginal wins potentially make you a playoff contender, and if that player is a free agent, soliciting bids from many teams. But Weeks was not a free agent.
As Sky Kalkman noted, if you’re paying $4.5 million per marginal win (never mind $5 million or more), you’d need a $225 million payroll to win 95 games. That’s an extreme scenario — even clubs with the weakest farm systems will inevitably churn out a prospect or two who will deliver value while making a few hundred thousand bucks a year, plus there are always cheap pickups to be had on the open market. But the main point here is that Weeks was not a free agent. He had a year to go before he could walk.
If Weeks put up another 6-win season in 2011 (or even a 5-win season, if you assume UZR’s wrong) and remained unsigned long-term, his asking price would have skyrocketed, and the Brewers might have missed out on a potential bargain. But Weeks’ injury history suggests that’s unlikely. If he plays 60 games this season instead of 160, the Brewers might start regretting this contract years before it’s up.
Blending art with science as best as we can, the Brewers probably need Weeks to be a true 3-win player in present-day terms — maybe even a little better — to make the cost and timing of this deal worthwhile. It could happen; Weeks has done it twice before, after all. But it’s anything but a sure bet. The Brewers’ shortstop situation might be the key to a potential deep playoff run. But the man at the other side of the keystone could loom just as large.
Jonah Keri is the author of The Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team from Worst to First -- now a National Bestseller! Follow Jonah on Twitter @JonahKeri, and check out his awesome podcast.
I see a red flag in that injury list – seems like he has always had problems with his hands & wrists. Wouldn’t the most likely cause of that be something mechanically “wrong” with his swing? And if thats the case he’s always going to be battling injuries…
Weeks already tweaked his swing in ’10. He used to ‘waggle’ the bat much more when he was at the plate, which some speculate may have contributed to the wrist injuries.
Indeed. The 2009 injury where he missed the most time happened when his was simply practicing his stance, wagging the bat in the dugout.
And he had his wrists operated on. Supposedly there was a ‘genetic abnormality’ that cause his wrist injuries and his operating doc claims he should not have wrist troubles ever again
I don’t really get a chance to see the Brewers play that much. But Weeks seems like a good athlete? Do you think his D might improve in 2012 when he doesn’t have Prince Fielder playing next to him. I always wonder how infielders and outfielders are affected by the guys around them. Since they would probably shade over to help weaker defenders. Maybe Jacoby Ellsbury’s terrible UZR in center was the product of playing next to Manny and Bay? Cano seemed to become a much “better” defender when Teixeira arrived etc.
Weeks is a very good athlete. Look at his UZR/150 from 2007 on. He is barely below average -3.7 is the worst. Close enough to average that you can probably expect him to be about average. He hasn’t been a terrible defender since 2006.
I have commented on this point – that there is something between Fielder and Weeks as far as Week’s defense – before. It seemed like for a year or three Rickie would hold on to the ball, or worse, double and triple pump, until Prince got set up at first. Now he seems more willing to perform a play in one normal motion. I would also say that Prince when he first started couldn’t pick a ball out of the dirt for the life of him. He seems much better at this now. I assume Rickie’s willingness to throw is a result of his confidence in Prince, but maybe not…
Also, this would impact throwing errors. I have no idea how UZR and start o matic are calculated and if throwing errors are considered or if it is purely a range thing.
I like the signing. There is upside and downside, the Brewers grabbed a price right in the middle. Risk in waiting also includes not having a player locked down for years 2012-14 which makes it a bit harder to be strategic….in building a roster.
It’s my understanding that the contract is driven by plate appearances, which would seem to mitigate the Brewers’ injury risk.
Only the 5th (option) year is PA-dependent. If Weeks cracks tomorrow, they’re screwed (though I’m sure they’ll have significant contract insurance).
I watch more or less every Brewers game and his defense has markedly improved over the years, it is really obvious to the eye. He still isn’t a great defensive player mostly because he still struggles turning double plays and makes silly errors sometimes.
It really does just come down to health, if the wrists tear again I’m not sure you can repair them and expect them to hold up again.
One thing that should probably be pointed out is he was going to play for them for 2011 regardless and most of that salary was going to go to him regardless. I’d start doing the math with 2012 instead of 2011. They added 3 years with an option for a 4th.
Weeks tore the tendon sheath in both wrists, not the right one twice.
What this signing means for the Brewers is that almost the entire team except for Fielder will be returning for 2012. I keep hearing “all in” for 2011 when people discuss the Brewers, but that’s simply not the case. They’ll have Greinke/Marcum/Gallardo/Wolf back in 2012 and the $15 million that they spent on Fielder this season. Some of that will go to pay raises, but they really have a two year window instead of just one.
The Brewers control their entire offense other than Fielder until at least 2014 when they lose Hart as well. Sure they lose minor parts like Gomez before that but Hart is the first big name to go off the books. Gallardo is also signed through 2015. So if they can extend Marcum or Greinke they have a really solid core team in place until 2016.
The biggest issue is going to be a lull in their minor league system over the next 2-3 years since so many of their impact players are still in lower levels.
When you say a lull, do you mean they can’t make trades because that seems Melvin’s main use of it. They could still drain away prospects tomorrow.
I don’t understand using that aging curve at all times for all contracts. Why do we assume a player will start to decline in his age-29 season?
Good point about the aging curve. It generally works best for older players. In Weeks’ case, we’re being conservative for other reasons, namely his injuries. But point absolutely stands. IF healthy, we might see a nice plateau next couple years.
I know people do it all the time, but can we really take a history of injuries to mean that player is significantly more prone to future injuries compared to others? As I understand it, the surgeries Weeks had to his wrists are essentially “good as new” procedures once the player recovers (which he clearly did in 2010!).
It’s not as though he’s a pitcher with chronic elbow/shoulder issues, which obviously tend to linger and produce future injuries.
I think it would be an interesting topic of analysis to examine the predictive nature of position player injury histories.
Well the problem with good as new would be what if they tear again, can the procedure be done again or is his career over at that point? He is certainly a risk but as shown by the math the downside isn’t all that huge and the upside is immense. I like this deal a lot more than the Bautista one.
(I know Weeks has a long track record, but if we assume that even just two of those injuries were “bad luck” – much like Gallardo’s freak accident in ’08 which people still mistakenly use to imply that he’s fragile – then he’s only missed around 25 games over the last 8 years due to random injuries.)
Is it just me, or doesn’t this make the Bautista contract look like a large overpay for the Jays?
This contract looks great to me. He’s probably a 3.5 to 4 win true talent player and he won’t even be 29 until September. It’s quite possible he’ll be worth the entire deal in his first 2 seasons with the team. To me, this is much better than the Bautista, extension, the Tulo extension, or the Carlos Gonzalez extension.
JK, good stuff on this, you were comprehensive.
Ender makes several strong points…best of which was on Weeks D. I too watch most Brewers games and Weeks has improved. Maybe you credit W Randolph as some have, but this much is known of Weeks, he has always worked hard and been willing to accept coaching.
His issue is his natural quick twitch works against him in the field and it appears Weeks has only recently been able to master more control over his great physical skills.
Honestly, Weeks is a sleeper MVP candidate. If Rollins can win one out of the blue a few years ago, so can Weeks.
The critical point is that they actually have options in the minors. Signing a risky player like Weeks for 20 times what it would cost to replace him with a player from the minors equates to not having money for other things.
The Brewers have little in the way of 2B or SS in the minors. Maybe a guy who could be average but certainly nobody of Weeks caliber.
That’s what makes this signing even bigger for the Brewers. They would have been hard pressed to find a reasonable replacements.
What options? Scooter Gennett is years away and Eric Farris is probably a utility player at best.
Weeks would be worth at least 5 years / $50 million on the FA market. $10 Million a year for a key position player is cheap these days. DH’s with similar hitting stats are making that kind of money.
First, they have zero replacements anywhere near the majors, second, look around at the second baseman in baseball right now, it’s a position of weakness right now, and third Melvin and the entire Brewers organization just love Rickie Weeks!
He is a quiet guy, but very involved in charitable work with his father and with the Brewers organization. He’s always had a strong work ethic and a great attitude and takes good care of himself. His injuries have not been from a lack of conditioning. He’s been knocked about his poor defense in the past, which he has also worked hard at- becoming adequate-maybe just a bit under average. I hope for everyone’s sake he’s through with the injuries.
The Brewers do try to keep their own in Milwaukee. I saw this deal coming the day they drafted him.
“2011- +5.6 WAR, $5 million per win, $28.0 value
2012 – +5.1 WAR, $5.25M/win, $26.78 million value
2013 – +4.6 WAR, $5.51M/win, $25.36 million value
2014 – +4.1 WAR, $5.79M/win, $23.73 million value ”
Why are you assuming a decline beginning this season, when Weeks is only 28?
If anything is to be assumed, wouldn’t it be that he should be at his peak this year or in 2012?
At what age is it really appropriate to use the “1/2 WAR decrease per year” model of decline?
wait didnt weeks injury his wrist in 09 when he was hit in the wrist by like a 97 mph fastball that tore his sheath? r watever you said he was
Jonah, I think you’ve just hit on something that could be the solution to all our uncertainties about defensive metrics. From now on, we can just rate players using the Strat-O-Matic system. Imagine how easy it would be to just think of guys as a 1, 2, 3, or 4 defender. Cuts through to the heart of the matter, and makes evaluation a much simpler task. I’m on board!
He’s the new beltre. except he can’t field.