RosterResource Chat – 10/23/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! Jon and I are ready to talk offseason, although World Series questions are still perfectly fine. The RosterResource pages are in offseason mode. Take a look and I’m sure you’ll have some questions …

Rosters/Depth charts: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/braves

Payroll: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/braves

Free Agent Tracker: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker

Here we go …

wheelhouse: this might be ridiculous, but would it be that absurd for the yankees to extend devin williams the QO? it’d be the highest reliever salary in the league if he accepted it but not by *that* much, with the benefit that it’s only a one year deal. if he were to get it, would he accept or would he decline and seek a multi-year deal?

Jon Becker: On the surface, I can see how it’d be more than a fleeting consideration. His FIP and xERA were both considerably better than his ERA, and I think there’s an excellent chance that this year was just a weird blip and he’s elite again. On the other hand, there’s still the optics of “let’s make the guy who lost his job as our closer by May the highest-paid reliever in baseball” so I think both sides will just move on. If he theoretically got the offer (and I’d be shocked if he did) I think he’d accept.

FishFam: Should the Marlins protect Jacob Berry from the R5 draft? He’s seemingly a DH only who hasn’t lived up to expectations, but did post a 131 wRC+ after mid-May

Jason Martinez: Strong finish and defensive versatility — he played a lot of 2B and RF for the first time in 2025 — so I think there will be consideration. But they already have a bit of a 40-man roster crunch (currently at 46 and not too many obvious DFA candidates). My guess is that, despite the upside from a former 6th overall pick in the draft, they don’t add him because they don’t think he’ll get taken in the Rule 5 draft because his defense isn’t good enough to be part of a MLB team’s bench in 2026.

Cody Christie (Twins Daily): How low could the Twins push their payroll if that’s a directive from ownership?

Jon Becker: In theory, you can get through a season with a payroll of, say, $30-$40M if you were that committed to cheapness, though of course they’re not going to actually go that low. Right now I’ve got them at $95M, already significantly lower than $136M for this year. That’s before picking up Topa’s option (or just going to arb with him) and non-tendering likely candidates like Tonkin, Cabrera, and Misiewicz. They very well could get under $110M even if Buxton insists on staying by moving López, Jeffers, and Ryan. But I’m not sure I expect that much of a blow-up since they got a lot of MLB-ready guys in the trades.

clydethedog: it seems like with the contracts given out, the Braves have made their bed and will have to sleep in it (its a pretty good bed to be fair). Would you try trading anyone tied in a long term contract to switch things up or just run it back?

Jason Martinez: My expectation is that they’ll try to run it back. They are in pretty good shape. Not much went right for them in 2025 and the baseball gods are usually pretty good about evening things out. They’ll pick up Albies’ option so their only question mark in the lineup will be SS if Kim opts out. If that happens, SS will likely be their top priority and then they’ll just have to focus on the bullpen. Rotation could be elite, especially if Strider bounces back closer to his pre-injury form.

clydethedog: Braves trade Ozzie and Ronald to the same team. What kind of package could they expect in return?

Jon Becker: Zero percent chance this happens, to be clear, (I agree with Jason’s response to your question above) but I think roughly the Juan Soto to San Diego package, probably a bit more? More time under club control for Acuña + Albies (four years) compared to Soto (two years and two months) but I could see there being enough concern about Acuña’s mobility in the outfield (not that Soto is good out there) and frequency with which he’ll steal bases.

Stevie: Padres need at least one bat. Who do you think they target?

Jason Martinez: If they have $ to spend this offseason, it will be on pitching. Their lineup is already mostly set so my guess is that they try to find another Gavin Sheets-type value to fill the one glaring hole at 1B/DH. As things stand (after exercising Laureano’s club option), they really only need one bat (1B or DH), a solid catcher to split duties with Fermin, and ideally they’d add a RHH bench bat who could platoon with Sheets. Adding someone like Dom Smith or Ty France would probably be fine. And cheap. But I’m hoping Preller and the front office can identify a buy low trade target. I would love Victor Caratini to be the backup catcher. He can also hit enough to be a part-time 1B/DH.

James: I read an article from a Fangraphs chat that talked about the playoff revenue split between teams and players, as well as how non-guaranteed games count differently. Also totally understand that playoff success helps future revenue. I’m still at a bit of a loss to get closer to the actual dollar figure, though – how much additional revenue would a game 5 in the ALDS have made the Mariners, for example?

Jon Becker: To put it as succinctly as possible: all of the playoff gate receipts (ticket sales) go into a big pot, and then it’s split amongst the teams in order of playoff finish (so who wins the WS gets the largest chunk, then who loses, then the Brewers and Mariners get the same, and so on). Where teams make more money is from concessions/merch/etc., all those things that I’m pretty sure the host team gets to keep 100% of. Can’t give or even really wrap my head around a way to estimate the incremental increase but I bet the Mariners were glad to have a 15 inning game for more hot dog sales.

appa yip yip: would bo bichette get more money if he agrees to play second because he’d have more suitors?

Jason Martinez: More suitors are needed to start a bidding war so it would definitely hurt his chances if he came out and said he only wanted to play SS. But I think all signs point to a potential position change. He’s not great at SS and the few teams that aren’t already set at SS wouldn’t pay Bichette what he’s worth. A move to 2B or 3B is very likely and could bump his list of suitors from 3-4 to 8-10. So it could make a significant difference.

Sir Nerdlington: Cubs will be down to 29 guys on the 40-man. How could they best use that rare flexibility?

Jon Becker: I frankly think the whole flexibility advantage thing is a little overblown because they only have so many spots available because they have a lot of players hitting FA. A good chunk of that is just role players like Turner and Civale, to be fair, but the 40-man can fill up pretty quickly with Rule 5 protections (I count at least four they’ll make) and they need to figure out how to replace contributions from Tucker/Keller/Thielbar/Pomeranz.

Nik: Who do you see as top potential    destinations for Alex Bregman?

Jason Martinez: It will be interesting because I think the Red Sox will make a strong push to re-sign him and will likely be very aggressive. But I think the number of suitors will be very high, which could make Bregman want to wait it out a bit. Mets and Phillies will likely be in the mix. And I wouldn’t count out the Dodgers. Max Muncy has a cheap club option but they could trade him to make space. Phillies could trade Bohm to make space. And then there are a few teams in the next tier that could be looking to make a splash. Cubs, Tigers, Mariners, Rangers all make some sense. And the Dbacks could be the perfect fit. Never rule them out. Carroll-Marte-Perdomo-Bregman in the top 4 spots would be fun (just not for me. I’m a Padres fan).

Jeff: Worst case scenario, there isn’t a 2027 season due to a lockout, what happens to the 2027 season for players already under contract? Do contracts get delayed a year?

Jon Becker: Nope, it just skips over. Contracts specify a specific term in calendar years, like 2026, or 2026-28, not “one MLB season” or “three MLB seasons,” etc. And if there’s only half a season players get paid half. I think we’ll see a lot of signing-bonus heavy contracts before a presumptive lockout hits next December 1.

2131, 1312: Does Jeremiah Jackson have a role on the Orioles next year? Obviously most of their lineup is set and stable, but how might they sort out the edges? (bench, centerfield)

Jason Martinez: Yep. He earned at least a part-time role and a chance to start vs LHP. Seemed fine at 3B and RF and he also played SS/2B/CF in the minors. Ball jumps off his bat, too. Whether he can be a lineup regular is still TBD. A lot of journeymen can go on a heater for a month or two when they finally get a chance to play (Joey Meneses is one of the latest that comes to mind) and then remind us the next season why they were stuck in AAA for 4 seasons.

Ronnie: Best chance of being on an Opening Day roster between Konnor Griffin, JJ Wetherholt and Walker Jenkins?

Jon Becker: From most to least likely I’d say Wetherholt (by a pretty good margin), Jenkins, Griffin. I’m not sure what else Wetherholt really has to prove in the minors, it’s just more about moving Arenado so there’s actually a spot for him. Jenkins was merely okay in his first taste in AAA so I’d think he’ll start back there, and Griffin hasn’t even made it there yet, plus the Pirates tend to be fairly conservative with their top prospects.

Oscar Gamble: Will Nathan Eovaldi be recovered from his hernia surgery and rotator cuff injury to start the 2026 season?

Jason Martinez: I think he’ll be ready to go but the Rangers will be super cautious with him. He’ll be 36 on Opening day and has averaged about 24 starts per season since 2022. Rangers would probably be happy with 25 starts plus full post-season availability. Best way to make that happen is to ease him back in Spring Training and push back his 2026 debut until May.

FishFam: Are there certain positions and/or profiles that you’re particularly wary of paying big FA $ to? It seems like recent R/R 1B deals haven’t been great and RP performance typically seems volatile

Jon Becker: Term of course matters (no such thing as a bad one-year deal as they say), but I’m pretty wary on one-tool guys in general, because as that tool erodes, there’s not a whole lot left. A Pete Alonso who hits only 25 homers is probably close to unplayable, for example. I also get concerned with guys who are more bat-to-ball than plate-discipline-centric and long-term deals for pitchers overly reliant on velocity (not because of injury, more because of being unsure how losing velo over time would affect them).

Coach1973: Do you see a breakout for Payton Tolle this year?

Jason Martinez: Possible. But no sure thing he’s in the rotation early in the season. He struggled a bit in his first MLB stint and Connelly Early is probably ahead of him going into spring. Red Sox will likely prioritize adding a No. 2 starter and they also have guys like Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval coming back from injury. Kyle Harrison will also be strongly in the mix. So Tolle might have to wait his turn. But the stuff is legit. Should be less hype when he gets his next shot.

Guest: How many innings do you see Braxton Ashcraft throwing next year?

Jon Becker: Just under 120 between MiLB and MLB this year so he absolutely could have a pretty full season, but I’ll be curious to hear from Cherington/Kelly on how they plan to use pitching next year, i.e., if they’re gonna do more piggybacking and incorporate Mlodzinski, Barco, Harrington, Oviedo, etc.

appa yip yip: feels like this world series is going to turn on strikeouts. can the dodgers sky high k rate beat the jays historically low k rate? or can the jays put the ball in play enough to make the dodgers turn to their bullpen?

Jason Martinez: I think that’s the goal. Ideally, they can force the Dodgers to turn to their bullpen by the 6th inning. But they can’t change their approach too much. They’re already pretty good at this. But their best chance to do any type of damage against guys like Snell/Yamamoto/Ohtani is to be aggressive early in the count. So it’s easier said than done. Especially since Snell finally decided he was going to be both dominant and efficient.

Dan S.: What are the chances Coby Mayo turns into a down-season Pete Alonso? .240/.330/.470 with 30-35 HR, maybe better defense?

Jon Becker: This is still a pretty high bar to clear, so… 20%? I loved what he showed down the stretch but I’m always wary to say that’s a sign of things to come and not just a hot streak that happened to be at the end of the year.

Paul Dewgong: Hey Jason, always been a fan of your work, pre-fangraphs!

I was really curious about the cardinals general roster strength going into 2025… all the pre-season articles about the cardinals, some had them on the power rankings 26-30 and I just didn’t get it. 78 wins isn’t great but its better than most people expected. I still think the roster is pretty good, even if they move some big contracts. Any chance the Cardinals shock the world in 2026 if they see gains in their rotation?

Jason Martinez: Thanks! Yeah, I think the roster was pretty average and should’ve been in the middle tier of MLB teams that could’ve finished with anywhere from 74-88 wins depending on how much went right compared to went wrong. And the Cardinals barely tried in the offseason so it’s understandable why writers would’ve placed them in that bottom range of teams.

The rotation has a long ways to go. I think they have some work to do just to get back to being .500 team. Being a playoff caliber team? I think they need to add 2 frontline SP. Tough to do in one offseason, especially because there aren’t that many available in Free Agency. And because of that, the price will be high.

Ryan: Can’t think of a question at the moment but keep up the great work fellas! RosterResource is an indispensable tool

Jason Martinez: Thanks! We appreciate that and enjoy corresponding with readers here and on social media. We’ll be back next Thursday for another chat. Enjoy the World Series.