RosterResource Chat – 12/6/24

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the pre-Winter Meetings edition of the live chat! And possibly the last chat before Juan Soto signs the biggest contract in MLB history. If any of you happen to run into me or Jon in Dallas next week, it’s totally fine if you ask us a roster-related question.

Thank you for the chat!: Does a straight Stroman for Bellinger trade work for both parties?

Jon Becker: You’re welcome for the chat! I don’t think this really works for the Cubs — Stroman’s option is likely to vest (140 IP in 2025), so he and Bellinger would both have two years left, if Bellinger once again opts in. SP just isn’t that big a need for the Cubs with Boyd in the fold, and if they add another it’s going to be an upside play, not Stroman

wheelhouse: the 2025 yankees will be a disaster because:

Jason Martinez: They have so many question marks throughout their roster. But the biggest one, which would likely result in a disaster, is if Gerrit Cole’s elbow ligament doesn’t hold up. He seemed fine and was getting stronger in the post-season. But that was also the case with Joe Musgrove.

Jon Becker: I’ve got no idea what Cole’s medicals actually look like but it’s interesting to me that he threw way fewer sliders and way more cutters upon his return. It could also be disastrous (by Yankees standards) if they miss out on Soto and somehow also miss out on a bunch of the other big-time FA.

bump bailey all stars: I’m curious about the mechanics around an agent fielding offers for top tier free agents (Ohtani, Soto, etc)… For example, are bidding teams informed of their competitors offers and given a chance to match or exceed? Or is the top bid kept secret, with the hope that some team will come WAY over the top?  Does this process vary significantly depending on the agent?

Jon Becker: It’s my understanding that it really depends on the agent itself as well as the free agent itself. We saw last offseason that CAA shopped around the Ohtani offer to multiple teams (I believe the Blue Jays matched it and the Angels didn’t, if I remember correctly) and went from there. If there’s a free agent who really wants to go back to his latest team then maybe they get the chance to match, too. But it’s generally more or less a blind process, Boras isn’t going to tell the Mets exactly what the Yankees are offering Soto and vice versa

Brewer Kent: Devin Williams to the Dodgers for Alex Freeland & Nick Frasso. Who says no?

Jason Martinez: Brewers say no. Freeland seems a bit fringy. Maybe he breaks out in 2025 but he’s not there yet. And even if they really like Frasso, there is too much uncertainty for pitchers returning from shoulder surgery.

Jon Becker: Feels like too little for Williams to me as well, even though rentals never go for as much as people like to think they will, elite players like Soto notwithstanding.

drhotdog: theres rumors that cubs are trying to trade one of Seiya or Belli.  given that seiya’s heroes is Mike Trout, how much should the angels go in for Suzuki (assuming they also trade Ward)?

Jon Becker: I don’t think the Angels don’t have what it takes to get Suzuki — there’s a lot of value there for two years and $38 million, and the Angels’ farm system is extremely slim pickings. At the same time, basically swapping Ward for Suzuki might only be a 1-2 win improvement and they have more obvious needs (pitching, infield)

Chris: If they stay in house in the IF, isnt it more likely Jazz at 3B and Durbin or Peraza at 2B than Cabrera every day?  Also thinking Pereira not gonna be in majors w an extra option now.

Jason Martinez: I don’t think they’re staying in-house. No reason to do that with their resources. I think they add at least 2 bats and Jazz’s versatility gives them some options. He can play CF or 2B and seems like he was at least adequate at 3B.

Jon Becker: I was definitely surprised by how solid Jazz looked over at third and while the advanced metrics didn’t love his CF work, he’s certainly playable there. They can basically do whatever they want with any two of the three positions and play Jazz at whatever’s left. Durbin and Cabrera would be great guys to keep around on the bench.

drhotdog: what do you think is the best yet most realistic solution for angels need of either a 2B or 3B?

Jon Becker: Angels fans probably won’t like me naming a formerly really good player with injury concerns, but Yoán Moncada is my go-to answer to this for a bunch of teams. Should come in well below $10M and still has a ton of upside.

Fully stuffed Red Stockings: How do you think the Red Sox sort out their prospect logjam? Campbell and Anthony get ___ MLB ABs?

Jason Martinez: The reason the Red Sox are in such a good spot is because they have 4 close-to-MLB, “probably elite” prospects and there is no rush at this point to get them MLB at-bats. That doesn’t mean they won’t keep a spot open for at least one of them. At this point, Teel’s path is almost clear unless they add another veteran catcher. 2B could be up for grabs and Campbell could be the front-runner. Getting Anthony some at-bats could take a trade but he’ll likely force his way onto the roster at some point. And that could involve Rafaela becoming a super-utilityman.

Thank you for the chat!: If you could ‘force’ one trade that would be fun/awesome for all sides, what trade would you do?

Jon Becker: I’ve been on the “Orioles trade a young bat to the Mariners for one of their starters” train for awhile, and there are a bunch of permutations that make some level of sense (this is just spitballing, not saying these are truly even or super fair)… Logan Gilbert for Jackson Holliday? George Kirby for Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad?

bob: Any specific position players you expect to be Rule 5 picks next week?

Jason Martinez: It’s so difficult to carry a Rule 5 position player because these are typically guys that need to be playing every day and most rookies aren’t successful in a part-time role. I usually look at position versatility, speed, and ability to make contact. Of all the guys MLB pipeline listed in their preview, I think Cooper Bowman (A’s) seems like the best fit as someone who would be valuable in a bench role.

Jon Becker: Ryan Ward’s a name that’s at the forefront of my mind because he’s on the Dodgers’ projected roster right now, but he doesn’t play CF and strikes out a ton, so while he might get selected it would have to be for a pretty specific role.

Baseball in Europe: The triple A’s signing Severino for a franchise record deal, I didn’t have that on my list. If The sources are correct, what do you make of that?

Jon Becker: The sources are definitely correct, the A’s announced the deal about an hour ago. More than anyone though he would get (I certainly didn’t think he’d get more than Kikuchi, who didn’t have a QO and finished his season stronger), and it’s certainly possible the A’s had to pay a premium to get him to play in Sacramento. The A’s look pretty good on offense, though they could use another infielder and definitely more pitching.

Bob F.: Any chance the Blue Jays would move Vlad or Bichette , the Phillies could use obp guy any else comes to mind.

Jason Martinez: Probably no chance while they’re trying to convince big-name free agents to sign with them for 2025 and beyond Depending on how things go, maybe that becomes an option closer to Spring Training. For now, my guess is that they go into the season with both of them and look to trade if they fall out of contention prior to the deadline.

Alf: Do you think teams are prepping for the inevitable automated strike zone? Seems like it would devalue certain catchers (those who excel at framing) and correspondingly increase the value of catchers who are good at other things but have that hole in their skill-set.

Jon Becker: Seems like it’s trending towards the challenge system as opposed to a fully-automatic zone, so I don’t think this’ll change how catchers are valued. In fact, framing might gain another layer of value: if you can trick the hitter too, he won’t use a challenge to get the call changed!

Hunter: Who do you think is playing Third Base for the Tigers next year: Vierling/Jung platoon, or someone they sign or trade for?

Jason Martinez: Tigers seem like a team that should be ready to make a splash in free agency, which is why I think Bregman and Adames are options. But Jung is a really good prospect and I think Vierling is most valuable in that super-utility role and can handle part-time duty at 3B. If they believe Jung can hold down 3B in 2025, maybe they look to upgrade corner OF.

AL Central Casting: Do the Twins have enough SP depth in the upper levels to feel comfortable trading Chris Paddack and his $7.5 million salary?

Jon Becker: Probably, yeah, though they wouldn’t get much back for Paddack. Knowing they’re trying to lower payroll at least a bit, I don’t think they’d backfill if they moved Paddack and would instead roll with López, Ryan, Ober, Woods Richardson, Festa.

Roman: Thoughts on the Padres rotation for 2025? Their lack of spending on a C makes me think they’re not going to increase spending (and may cut) and they have 2 upcoming FAs in the rotation. Do you see them trading Cease or King for a cheaper SP?

Jason Martinez: My assumption has been that they don’t have much $ to spend this offseason and not bringing back Higgy, who seemed like a perfect fit, seems like that will be the case. Maybe their focus is on bringing Profar back, who also is a perfect fit on this team. Trading Cease would be their best way to free up $ and bring back a young, MLB-ready SP in return. But I think they’ll wait until closer to Spring Training (maybe during Spring Training) until they make that decision. Seems like they need Preller to be very creative. And I’m looking forward to Preller being creative with this roster.

TKDC: Do you think Ohtani deserves some credit for the insane contract Soto will get? While his $700 million deal was really more like a $462 million deal, the number was still $700 million, and that pushes into reality the feasibility of signing a player for that much. All of the sudden paying Soto $640 million or whatever doesn’t seem as Earth shattering.

Jon Becker: Yes and no. I think you’re right that it pushes a “number to beat” into reality, but the teams negotiating to sign him all know that Ohtani effectively signed for $460M. Soto was always going to beat that number anyway — he’s much younger, and his deal will be longer — but I’m not sure we’d be bandying about the possibility of $750M if Shohei had just taken the $460M without deferrals.

guest: what moves do you see Rangers making? Higgy gives them needed catcher tandem, but i think they still need OF/DH bat. Do you see them signing guy like Santander or trading for a Rooker/Ward type bat?

Jason Martinez: Solidifying the catching position seemed like the priority for the lineup. Not much room to do much else. Assuming they use Josh Smith in a super-utility role, there probably is room for a DH type. But the expectation is that Evan Carter will become a lineup regular and Leody Taveras the 4th OF once Carter wins the job. They just need everyone to get healthy and bounce back. Their focus has to be pitching. They need at least 1 SP and at least 3 RP.

Jonah: Could the Phillies be a possible Seiya Suzuki destination?  Or does his poor fielding + strikeout issues make him too redundant with the many players on their roster who fit those descriptions?

Jon Becker: He’s certainly an upgrade over Castellanos, so if that’s the sole goal, then sure he fits. But I do see your point about the redundancy; what they’ve needed for years, in the outfield especially, is dynamism.

I Love RR Power Rankings: Jason, just want to say I really appreciate the RR Power Ranking model. It’s just SUCH a nice filter to quickly see who had a good season with some context. Have you written anywhere what all goes into the model? Like MILB park factors, Age-to-level adjustments, weighting for PAs? Just curious and appreciative!

Jason Martinez: For the MiLB version, I did a little bit in the Introduction when it was added to FanGraphs … https://blogs.fangraphs.com/introducing-rosterresources-milb-power-ran…

Park Factors aren’t part of the equation, but that’s the one thing I definitely want to add. It’s just difficult because it varies so much. Even the leagues that are super hitter-friendly has ballparks that are more or less extreme.

The MLB version is really simple and favors BB/K rates.

Guest: Any thoughts on the Nick Frasso situation in LA?

Jon Becker: Sounds like he’s finally throwing to hitters after two almost-completely-lost seasons, so he’ll theoretically be full-go for next year (albeit on innings limits, I’m sure). He is pretty far back on the Dodgers SP depth chart, though, so I wonder if they try him out as a multi-inning reliever.

Trade Simulator: Since BaseballTradeValues dot com was put behind a paywall, have you guys given any consideration to developing your own version of a fantasy trade simulator at FG? Is there any functionality in the Auction Calculator (which is great btw) that could be built upon to make this reasonably do-able?

Jason Martinez: I’m not all that familiar with it. I’ve seen some stuff like that on social media that gets dunked on. Seems like a very difficult thing to do. So much context is necessary and things move so quickly in the baseball world. When you follow along as closely as me and Jon (partly because it’s our job) and I’m sure many roster nerds, you can stay ahead of the algorithms.

With that said, we will have a RosterResource meeting during the Winter Meetings and I’ll be sure to bring this up and get back to you during next Friday’s chat.

Jason Martinez: That’ll do it for today. Thanks for joining us! Jon and I will be back next week with the post-Winter Meetings chat.