RosterResource Chat – 2/14/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! Pitchers and catchers (and many position players) have mostly reported to Spring Training, which means a lot of injury updates and quotes from managers that may or may not tell us something important once we read between the lines. 

As a reminder, the RosterResource pages are all updated almost in real-time. Playing time projections take a bit longer but are also updated quickly.  

If you’re not familiar, here’s the Red Sox RosterResource roster/depth chart …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

And payroll page …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/red-sox

Here we go …

Bullock’s: Assuming you guys look at page view stats for the various Roster Resource products, are there any of them that you think are under-utilized?  Like, you think you’ve got something cool and you’re waiting for the community to figure it out?

Jon Becker: I love looking at the Breakdowns tab, where we’ve got 26-man, 40-man and payrolls all there in one view for you to peruse. The first two tabs are a fun way to look at the different ways teams are built, and the Payroll tab has that from a payroll allocation perspective. All the tables are sortable, too!

Brett Baty: Why don’t the Mets just trade me. Angels could use me. What would the angels have to give up to get me? Who else makes sense?

Jason Martinez: It’s crazy how quickly a prospect’s value drops once they reach the majors and either struggle or deal with injuries. It was a really big deal when Baty was called up. 3 years later, he doesn’t really seem to be part of the team’s future. It makes sense to trade him. But it also makes sense to see if he can stay healthy and put up big numbers in AAA for at least a half-season before shopping him at the trade deadline. I’m sure the Angels will have a useful player or two to help Mets for the playoff run.

Guest: Would you rather have Darvish or Houck?  Darvish did well down the stretch; Houck had the better overall numbers and is much younger, but I fear the regression factor.  Thoughts?

Jon Becker: I think Houck, since he’s younger as you said and I could totally buy that he just ran out of gas. But having gotten through the season, he should be better-equipped for this year. That’s not a knock on Darvish at all, who I think can be good into his 40s because he’s so crafty. He’ll probably come up with a couple new pitch types before he retires.

Dan: Are you taking into account Stroman saying he won’t pitch in relief (or similar off field information) when making up your projected lineups

Jason Martinez: Yep. I always take everything into account, although I don’t think his “I’m a starter” comment changes too much. In fact, I moved him to the bullpen two days ago after I decided to just list the Yankees with 5 starters instead of 6. I think he’s a starter and a very effective No. 4 or 5 starter, which is why I had listed him in the rotation and figured that things would sort themselves out (injury or trade). But, if the season started and the 5 guys ahead of him are healthy (good chance they’re all not), I think Stroman is a long reliever.

drplantwrench: assuming neto doesnt start at SS by opening day, who do you think the Angels OD SS is? fangraphs is saying tim anderson, but i feel like perry got kevin newman/scott kingery for a reason

Jon Becker: Yeah, we’ve got Anderson, though we’ve still got Newman projected with more overall PA since Anderson won’t have as clear a roster spot when Neto is back. Spring Training stats don’t matter for most players, but if a guy like Anderson is pulling the ball and looking more like his old self, I don’t think Newman’s going to be staving him off.

drplantwrench: the angels 5th/6th pitcher spot is fascinating to me, with Reid Detmers, Jack Kochanowcz, Caden Dana, Sam Bachman, Chase Silseth, and Sam Aldegheri all in contention.  i assume hendricks will fall off and these guys will get more playing time, but how do you see it playing out?

Jason Martinez: Detmers is the guy who has had some MLB success and still has plenty of upside. I think they’d want to give him at least one more good opportunity before giving one of the younger guys a chance ahead of him. Dana is the kind of prospect you call up when you think he’s going to be up for good. He had a brief look at the end of last season but he’s probably not quite ready yet.

Unless Hendricks is terrible over his first few starts, I think the plan is to stick with him for as long as possible and turn to the youngsters if they fall out of contention.

Nickwid: Who do you think will win the AL East if you had to make a guess?

Jon Becker: Maybe recency bias based on their awesome offseason, but I’m going Red Sox. Having Mayer, Anthony, or Campbell ready to go if/when somebody gets hurt or slumps is an embarrassment of riches.

Brian: One’s head spins from all the position players in the mix for Baltimore. Assuming no trades before Opening Day, how do you think the OF names in particular will shake out?

Jason Martinez: You can see the playing time projection breakdown here … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/orioles

or here … https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

I think the big takeaway is that Kjerstad can get 400+ PA even if he’s not a “lineup regular” because Gunnar Henderson is the only player I have projected with more than 600 PA+. Depth is good. They also have prospects who are close and a bounce-back candidate with options remaining (Dylan Carlson).

Guest: News out of Rockies camp is that they’ll start Kris Bryant in RF for away games and DH him for home games. Jordan Beck will do the inverse. What’s your opinion on this actually happening? It seems a bit wild to me that they wouldn’t permanently DH KB and let Jordan Beck show them what he has in the field.

Jon Becker: I haven’t seen Bryant or anyone with the Rockies make any public comments about this, but it’s possible they’re deferring to Bryant’s wishes to some extent. A lot of players really, really don’t like to DH, just sitting around waiting for their next plate appearances, so having him DH half the time would be a decent enough compromise there.

Rayball10: Who’s got the best potential to throw the most IP in 2024 amongst:
Ryne Nelson
Hayden Wesneski
Slade Cecconi
Brandon Birdsell
Chad Patrick

Jason Martinez: Wesneski. He’s in the projected rotation now and I think he controls his own destiny for the most part. The Astros can hold off on bringing back Luis Garcia or Lance McCullers Jr. from the IL if Wesneski is pitching well.

G4: With Durbin the Crew’s only infield addition, it’s looking more like Turang at SS, no?

Jon Becker: They’ve got multiple options even if they don’t add anybody else. Turang can play second and short, Ortiz can play second, short, and third, Durbin and Dunn can play second and third. Frelick may also factor in at third too. My guess is that Ortiz and Turang are settled in at one position each, but where exactly that is hinges a lot on who impresses Pat Murphy and the staff during Spring Training games.

John: Who do you think will dominate (excluding Ohtani) coming off Tommy John surgery this year?

Jason Martinez: deGrom should dominate again. His stuff is too good. Whether he can stay healthy is another question. But you can pretty much say that about every pitcher these days. Looking forward to seeing Matt Brash and Felix Bautista again.

Here’s a list of players who are recovering/recovered from TJ and could return in 2025 … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/injury-report?injury=tj&grou…

Bullock’s: What are the odds that Heston Kjerstad is already a better hitter than one of the Ryans in Baltimore?

Jon Becker: Pretty good, I’d say, though I expect better from Mountcastle with the LF wall moving back in. Kjerstad was solidly above-average in his time in MLB last year despite not pulling a single fly ball to right field (all of his homers were dead CF), and like Jason said earlier, there should be plenty of playing time for him even if he’s not a “starter”

Dombrowski: I know Marsh cant hold up in CF defensively fulltime and Kepler/Wilson platoon is fine for reg season but am I counting on Crawford for CF for the stretch run and playoffs? Moving Marsh or keeping Kepler LF who ever hits more

Jason Martinez: I don’t think they’re planning on it because Crawford is not quite ready yet. Seems like they think he’s close but I’d guess 2026 is more likely. But like most top prospects, I do think he is talented enough that if he figures things out, he’s capable of making the jump and having an impact in late 2025. Then they’d adjust from there. Would be a pleasant surprise.

Brian: Right now the Orioles project to have an all-right-handed starting rotation. Even among the depth, only Povich and Rogers are lefties. How common is it for a rotation to be so righty-heavy?

Jon Becker: It happens more often than you think — the White Sox I think went close to 200 games without using a lefty starter, a streak that ended in the middle of 2023, if I recall correctly. Right now we’ve also got the Guardians, Twins, Mariners, and Blue Jays with all righties, so one-sixth of the league.

Datt Mamon: Fifteen keepers pre-draft. I have positional redundacy at 3B with Westburg and Vientos. I have H. Ramos as my third OF but don’t necessarily want to keep him, but I feel like it’s going to come down to Vientos or Ramos. Who are you higher on long-term?

Jason Martinez: Heliot had a .604 OPS and 68 wRC+ over his final 111 PA. Possibly just wore down at the end of his 1st MLB season and could be ready to build on an overall solid performance. But his splits were also concerning. He crushed LHP and was bad vs RHP. Vientos seems like he’s on the verge of becoming a star.

Guest: I feel like every free agent this off-season has got $5-10 million more in AAV than market value. Some crazy over pays for someone like Willy Adames or Alex Bregman

Jon Becker: Yeah, a lot came in higher than expectations, though worth noting that the significant deferrals in Bregman’s contract make the net present value more like $95M, which doesn’t strike me as crazy-high for a three-year deal. Adames did about what I expected by AAV, just with an extra year. On the flip side, Alonso, Flaherty, and Santander (considering the significant deferrals in his deal) did a lot worse than I thought they would.

Brian: Not a question, just a comment around the 81 names on the Free Agent Tracker who currently remain unsigned. We focus so much on “where is Bregman going to land” that perhaps we forget that dozens of players’ careers are likely ending before our eyes, most involuntarily. It’s a rough business.

Jason Martinez: For sure. This is the time of year where I start adjusting the playing time projections down for free agents. And, eventually, I just remove them from the list. A quick glance and you can kind of see it probably being over for a few guys still on the list …

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=0

Jon Becker: I’m sure at least a handful of those guys have the mindset of “if someone gives me guaranteed money I’ll keep going, but I’d rather just be done than fight for a spot or go back to the minors at this point on my career.”

Brian Cashman: Which free agent starters would have to sign before Marcus Stroman becomes an appealing option to teams?

Jon Becker: Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Andrew Heaney and Jose Quintana will all get MLB deals and will get paid less than Stroman is owed. It’s also important to note that Stroman has an option that vests if he pitches 140 innings this year, so if you’re trading for him you’re likelier than not to be getting two years of him. And if he pitches like he did down the stretch, it could be the same commotion all over again next offseason, with his new team trying to dump his salary and nobody really biting.

Kate: Does Yilber Diaz find a rotation spot in Arizona before he gets stuck in the pen?

Jason Martinez: At best, I think he’s 8th on their depth chart so it’s not an easy path. However, teams don’t use less than 8 starting pitchers in a season so the chances of a team’s No. 8 SP making starts in the big leagues is high. The question is whether the Dbacks feel good enough about their overall depth (and Diaz’s potential as SP vs RP) to move someone like him to the bullpen for good. My guess is that he’s pitching in relief late in the season.

Guest: The Angels might be the most unserious baseball team I know. Throwing around money for people like Tyler Anderson, and 20+ million for someone who is not an Ace in Kikuchi.

Jon Becker: Angels have had an extremely weird offseason, more of the same of thinking they’re just a handful of veterans away from contention, and I don’t expect this attempt to go any better than the last several. That said, I think the unserious crown goes to the Pirates, who have the most exciting young 1-2 rotation punch in baseball, and whose biggest offensive addition has been Spencer Horwitz, who’s a good hitter but doesn’t have a ton of power. Plus, he’ll miss the start of the season with a wrist injury, in all likelihood. Can’t force players to sign with your team but they weren’t even publicly connected to anyone who signed for $10M+ and would’ve helped that lineup a ton.

Jobu’s Rum: Now that the Padres have added to their rotation depth, considering both 25 and the future of this roster, would you trade Cease or King?

Jason Martinez: Trading Cease or King, in my opinion, would’ve almost been a signal that they’re punting on the season because I don’t think they’re a playoff team without a “Big 3” in the rotation … Cease-King-Darvish. But I also didn’t think they had a chance at Pivetta, who I consider to be just good enough (especially if he improves under Niebla like many others have) to be part of a “Big 3”.

Trading Cease to Baltimore for Kjerstad, Kremer, etc. or to the Cubs for Caissie, Assad, etc. wouldn’t necessarily downgrade them enough to make them a non-contender. King-Darvish-Pivetta-Kremer or King-Darvish-Pivetta-Assad are pretty good 1-4’s. I don’t think they want to trade Cease but I now think they can trade him and still end up being a playoff contender.

Jon Becker: I think they’d do it if they got an offer too good to turn down that set them up well for the future, but I also think part of how they structured the Pivetta contract was to add almost nothing to their 2025 real cash payroll while strengthening the rotation; it sounds like they don’t really care if they have to pay the luxury tax.

Guest: How do you think the Dodgers bench sorts out? Do you see Pages getting optioned until an injury? Just release Chris Taylor? Or do you assume someone will always be injured, so it’s just not even worth thinking about?

Jon Becker: I think the way we have it projected right now is how it’s almost guaranteed to shake out barring injury. Taylor was pretty decent down the stretch and they love him in the clubhouse so I don’t think they’d unceremoniously release him in Spring Training; if he wasn’t in the plans they’d have cut him already. The only thing I could see changing is Hyeseong Kim looking awful in Spring and getting optioned to the minors, which would move Edman to the infield and open up an OF spot for Pages.

TW: Which team from the past few years has had the most anonymous roster heading into the season? This year I think it’s the Marlins

Jason Martinez: It’s part of our job to know everyone. No one is anonymous to us.

Jon Becker: I actually think this year’s White Sox might be more anonymous than the Marlins! Helps to have a former Cy Young winner on the squad.

Bullock’s: During the season, how much of your job is checking every beat writer’s feeds to check for manager quotes to stay on top of the depth charts, especially when there’s changing or ill-defined roles?

Jon Becker: It’s a lot, though for me at least it’s more looking at box scores to see how players are actually getting used. A lot of times a manager will insist he doesn’t have a set closer but it’s one guy getting 90% of the saves anyway, or that he still has faith in a hitter but then will play him a lot less. To be clear, I would be compulsively checking all this stuff anyway!

Dan: What stats does the power ranking look at? Is it projecting or only looking backwards?

Jason Martinez: MLB Power Ranking is based on performance only. The Minor League Power Ranking takes age and level into account so it can look forward a bit.

John: Anybody want David Robertson?

Jon Becker: Yeah, he’ll sign somewhere unless he’s done playing and just hasn’t told anyone yet. He represents himself (I think he’s the only active player who does) which could be a reason why we haven’t heard much on him. Not sure agent David Robertson really cares if there’s a lot of buzz around player David Robertson’s market.

Bryan Bullington: How many PA do you expect for Acuna and Neto this season?

Jason Martinez: 553 for Acuña … https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=16

560 for Neto … https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1

But the latest reports have them both in a good spot. Unless their teams are overly cautious, I think both have a chance for 600+.

DBacks/Twins: I know the Twins have a load of potential injury risks, but what do you think it takes for them to deal Willi Castro to the DBacks? He’s almost a perfect complement to AZ’s roster by my estimation.

Jon Becker: I’m not sure the Diamondbacks have the budget to squeeze in a $6M bench player after already stretching the budget for Burnes and then punting much of Grichuk’s contract into the buyout of his mutual option. I’d be very surprised if they added a position player who’s guaranteed of an MLB spot, especially since Lawlar is already waiting for his shot.

Kate: Phils have talked about resting Realmuto a bit this year to try to keep him healthy.  That seemed to have his PT projections down a bit this year.  Now they’re saying maybe he gets some DH time.  It’s probably not a ton given the other DH options on that roster, but do you all think DH days could keep him in 500+ PA range?  Or is there not enough DH time available for that?

Jason Martinez: I saw a report that they plan on using Schwarber in the OF more this season. I’ll believe it when I see it. He made 5 starts in LF last season. I don’t think there will be a lot of DH at-bats available, especially because they have other older players who they’d want to keep off their feet once in awhile. The lineup is also good enough to just allow Realmuto to take full days off and keep him healthy for the full season. I think he’ll still get close to 500 PA.

Kate: Would it make sense for the Jays to trade some of this ok-ish hitter depth they have that seems to be backed up on the MLB / AAA rosters?  Or should they just keep cycling through guys until they figure out who can play?

Jon Becker: With what they’ve got now and with uncertainty about Varsho to start the season and Springer’s aging, I think just cycle through guys and see what you’ve got. Ernie Clement can be more of a bench guy if Wagner takes hold of 3B, which then makes DH more open, for example. A lot of moving parts on that team.

E: There seems to be an increase in murmurs about Kumar Rocker getting the last rotation spot and cody bradford going to the pen. What do you guys think happens here?

Jason Martinez: Once they put Bradford in the bullpen, I think he’s going to be too valuable to move back to the rotation. So figuring out if he can be a very good starting pitcher early in the season could be important to them. He has shown glimpses. And I also think Rocker will be on an IP limit so it’s probably easier to call him up at a point where they know he’ll be available thru September/October.

I wouldn’t rule it out, but that’s my thinking on why I have Bradford in rotation/Rocker in AAA to begin the season.

sw1sh: The Nationals are lacking high leverage relievers at the moment, who are some remaining free agent fits for them in that department?

Jon Becker: Robertson’s the obvious answer, and after that it’s pretty slim pickings. I guess they could work something out with Kyle Finnegan still even though they non-tendered him earlier in the offseason. Lance Lynn’s also reportedly had some teams interested in him as a late-inning reliever. Now that would be fun.

Jason Martinez: Or they go with the Hector Neris experience.

Jason Martinez: Daniel Bard also plans on being ready at some point in 2025.

Bullock’s: When making lineups on the Depth Charts pages, do you enjoy figuring out he complicated ones with lots of moving parts, or are you relieved when one of them is a simple set-it-and-forget-it?

Jason Martinez: Yes and Yes. The less info available, the more I just go with what I think would be a good lineup. That’s always fun. But the goal is to put up the most accurate projection. So when the puzzle pieces all fit together, that’s probably the best feeling.

OtisPDriftwood: As one of the NL closers not on the Dodgers, do you see AJ Puk getting a lot of saves in AZ?

Jon Becker: I think Justin Martinez is the bigger impediment to Puk’s save total than being on a team other than the Dodgers, since there’s less intra-divisional play now anyway. When you have two closers and you’re playing matchups, that can often favor the righty.

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. Thanks for joining us. Getting closer to baseball games happening every day!