RosterResource Chat – 2/19/26

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! I launched MLBDepthCharts (now known as RosterResource) on this day 17 years ago. Pretty sure Jon was in the 4th grade so he wasn’t helping me back then. But it wasn’t too much longer before he was. And look at us now.

Here we go …

Tommy: Would it not be in the best interest of the Red Sox and the Diamondbacks to go back to the drawing board on the Ketel Marte trade? Mayer was previously unavailable, but has almost become expendable.

Jon Becker: Definitely would be in the best interest for the Red Sox, because you’re right that Mayer is expendable (really, he should’ve been all offseason to get Marte before the Diamondbacks pulled him off the market). But I don’t think it makes a whole lot of sense for the D’backs at this point, after stretching the budget to get Gallen, to turn around and make the team worse a few days after bringing Zac back. The Diamondbacks also have a less acute need for pitching than they did when Marte was still on the market, though the depth behind their six starters is still iffy.

Joe: Is Coby Mayo the favorite to start at third with Westburg potentially out long term?

Jason Martinez: Yeah. But in a scenario where Westburg misses more than a month, I think it would be more of an opportunity/audition to determine who continues to play 3B once Jackson Holliday returns from the IL. I’d think Alexander has a slight edge right now but Mayo would get 2-3 weeks (while Holliday is on the IL and Alexander likely plays 2B) to prove he can hold it down until Westburg is back (whenever that is).

Datt Mamon: Can keep M. Clark or DeLauter. My current OF is set, so this would be depth. Thoughts on better long-term prospect?

Jon Becker: I’m not a prospect evaluator but Clark was 7th in our just-released Top 100* (110, really!) and DeLauter was 26th. I can’t recall a list that’s had DeLauter over Clark, at least in the past year-plus or so. DeLauter is closer to the majors (he will probably be on the Opening Day roster) but that doesn’t sound like a factor for you anyway.

J.W.: If Steven Kwan moves to CF, how will that impact the Guardians lineup?

Jason Martinez: I don’t think it would be a permanent move. They just don’t really have a decent backup at the moment and it’s possible they’d rather have DeLauter in a corner spot. Angel Martinez crushed LHP last season (that’s why I have him projected to play CF vs LHP) but he had -8 DRS in CF.

I’m assuming they’re fine with DeLauter in CF because they did almost nothing this offseason that would’ve addressed a Plan B. But what if he gets hurt again? What if he struggles? You got Nolan Jones or Kwan on the MLB roster. Petey Halpin and Kahlil Watson are MiLB options.

So it sounds like they just want to make sure Kwan can be a viable option out there just in case.

Doc Estes: What does the Diamondbacks outfield look like if Gurriel is back sooner than expected?  Lawler impact?

Jon Becker: I read the other day that they’d want Gurriel DHing at least a couple times a week whenever he’s back, which makes sense coming off a major knee injury. There’s still some impact to Lawlar for sure, but it’s lessened and the effects would cascade to guys getting DH time too, like Pavin Smith, Santana, and ADC. I could see Gurriel-Thomas-Carroll as the “regulars” left to right, but I put that in air-quotes because Gurriel will be semi-regular and Thomas could sit against lefties or slide over to left with Lawlar in center when Gurriel is DHing.

Jeff: Will the Cubs go into the season with Matt Shaw as a short side platoon, or do they have more moves upcoming?

Jason Martinez: A trade is always possible but that’s just a matter of a team desperate enough to meet the asking price, which I assume is high. But it sure does seem like they’re moving forward with him being a utility-man who plays a lot of RF. As things stand, I think they carry either Chas McCormick or Dylan Carlson to give them coverage in LF/CF/RF and Shaw would cover 2B/SS/3B and then get occasional starts in RF vs LHP.

J.W.: Do you think the Guardians will go with Logan Allen or Parker Messick out of Spring Training in their rotation? Both have options, I believe.

Jon Becker: Could be both of them, really. I see Bibee and Williams as the only two to be 100% sure to get rotation spots, and then it’s three spots for Messick, Allen, Cantillo, and Cecconi, with Cantillo out of options and sure to have a bullpen spot if he misses out on the rotation. I liked what I saw from Messick last year quite a bit but it’s notable that Cecconi made the playoff rotation and Allen and Cantillo both finished strong.

Interested person: What is the Pirates positional rotation going to look like? Best lineup has Ozuna, Horwitz, O’Hearn. Best defense most certainly doesn’t

Ryno: How do you see playing time in the Pirates OF playing out? Feels weird that they traded for Mangum to use him as a 4th or 5th OF

Jason Martinez: Sounds like it will be O’Hearn in RF and Reynolds in LF. Horwitz struggled vs LHP last season, as did Oneil Cruz so I imagine there will be a lot of games where one or both are pinch-hit for late in games vs LHP and Mangum and/or Jhostynxon Garcia come in to play OF and O’Hearn moves to 1B.

Seems kind of bad right now but I’m assuming there will be a lot of close games due to their pitching staff and, thus, their late-inning defensive alignment will be very important. Having Mangum out there in a close game will be impactful.

Datt Mamon: Been reading that Chase Burns is in “competition” for the Reds’ rotation. What are they doing?

Jon Becker: I think Burns would have to be truly awful in spring training or end up hurt to not get that last spot. I see no real way for Lowder to win that job otherwise after missing all of last year besides the AFL. When I see reports like that I read it more as the team not wanting to assure a guy of anything and have him come to camp ready to compete.

Cromulent: Really appreciate your work! Which team roster do you think will have the most in-season volatility?

Jason Martinez: Thank you! Good timing on that question since we just released a set of new features at FanGraphs and the one called “Hot Streak” … https://www.fangraphs.com/lab/hot-streak … will be very beneficial to help measure that during the season. It’s something I’ve been very interested in. How often does one player carry a team? What does a team slump look like?

With that said, I’d go with the A’s as the lineup that has the most in-season volatility due to their youth, home ballpark, and high K% rate.

Doc Estes: When is Sean Murphy scheduled to be back in Atlanta?  What happens with Drake and Heim when he is back?

Jon Becker: I believe they’re shooting for May. Baldwin isn’t going anywhere when Murphy’s back, but how Heim performs could lead to him sticking around and the Braves going with three catchers and Baldwin/Murphy DHing more. Dubón and Mateo’s versatility really helps in that regard.

Doog: Why is Palencia’s ADP behind closers like Estevez, Hoffman and even Jansen? His skills look great and I don’t think there’s much pressure on his job

Jason Martinez: Couldn’t tell you why his ADP is what it is. I know the FG Depth Charts projections have him projected for 30 SV, which is more than Hoffman (26) and Jansen (23). Keller and Kittredge were getting occasional save chances last season but Palencia had pretty much locked down the job before he went on the IL in September.

I still think they have enough reliable arms to form a good committee but Counsell seems committed to Palencia, which is actually kind of rare these days. Usually, a manager won’t say much about who the closer will be. Hunter Harvey has the potential to close but he’s also hurt a lot. If he’s healthy and Palencia struggles at all, he would likely be next in line.

Rada: How long do you think before we see him in an Angels this year? What do you think the realistic outcome is for him in terms of MLB playing time? What do you think his “best” possible outcome would be playing time wise in 2026?

Jon Becker: A big part of this is whether Trout actually ends up back in CF, and how often. If he’s actually healthy and actually in CF, say, five days a week, there’s less of a need to call Rada up aggressively since his calling card is his glove. If Trout ends up hurt and/or DHing more and Lowe/Adell are disastrous defensively out there, then there’s more of a need for Rada. I think getting into the triple-digits in MLB PA this year isn’t unrealistic, best case is maybe 100 games and 375 PA, somewhere in there?

Naylor Sailor: Why do you have Victor Robles starting in RF for the Mariners vs RHP instead of Luke Raley? Raley has the platoon advantage and higher projected WRC+.

Jason Martinez: Pretty close to a 50/50 position battle in my opinion and I’m assuming (at least for now) that the Mariners want to see if that late-2024 version of Robles shows up to Spring Training  and would at least give him a couple weeks of the regular season before deciding if that was just a rare hot streak for him. The only other thing in Robles’ favor are his defense and the Mariners’ already having a left-handed heavy lineup. So he balances it out a bit.

But even in the case where it’s not a straight platoon (Raley vs RHP/Robles vs LHP), I’d assume Raley gets plenty of starts vs RHP between RF/1B/DH.

curious george: The big league deals have dried out. How many are left out there?

Jon Becker: Only two guys who are 99% sure to get one before Opening Day: Giolito and Littell. Scherzer could wait to sign until the right fit opens up. Beyond that, a lot of maybes, but I see strong possibilities in Coulombe, Justin Wilson (who’s considering retirement), Kopech, Ramón Urías, Rhys Hoskins, and Starling Marte.

2131, 1312: Any speculation as to why the Os even negotiated a contract with Ryan Mountcastle after signing Alonso? Coby Mayo has both a future and a path to playing time (now that Westburg may be out for a while), but Mounty seems to be wasting a roster spot

Jason Martinez: If they thought he’d have no trade value, they would’ve likely non-tendered him. But I think they believe someone will take on his full salary and give something back in return. But Holliday and Westburg both likely beginning the season on the IL just reinforces why you hold on to guys like Mountcastle (someone who has trade value and might not be a great fit on your roster) until closer to the beginning of the season. Not that those injuries affect Mountcastle’s role too much but that’s a reason not to trade Coby Mayo too early. They’re probably just letting things play out and then they can make some moves in a few weeks.

PinstripedPride: If the Yankees keep jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones in the minors, who is their backup outfielder?

Chris: Seems trying McM at short is a signal Oswaldo wont make the team instead of Jasson or a to be named 4th OF…

Jon Becker: If Jasson is in the minors (I don’t think Jones has much of a chance at all of making the team), they’ve still got plenty of OF coverage with Rosario, Cabrera, and Caballero. I don’t think McMahon getting a little work at short is much of an indication of anything — you’ll see a lot of guys try out positions in spring training that they’ll never play in the regular season. Oswaldo still has a big leg up, IMO, over Jasson because Jasson needs to play and it doesn’t matter as much how much Cabrera does.

NFP: Procedural question: will you wait until Westburg is formally put on the IL to change the depth chart?

Jason Martinez: No, just waiting for some clarity on the elbow injury. Should be very soon. Doesn’t sound great. You can see a full list of “projected IL” guys here. Currently 48 players not on the 60-Day IL but who are projected to start on the IL … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/injury-report?groupby=all&ti…

Fin: I am curious about your definition of “expendable.” Do you think the Red Sox should have been enthusiastic about trading a 55 FV prospect as (presumably) part of a large package for a 32-year-old, at the beginning of their competitive window?

Phil: Hmm. Not sure I see why Mayer would be expendable? I’m not counting on much from Campbell at this point, and Mayer would seem to be their best defensive infielder, no? I do think he’ll be a floater without necessarily having a designated position, but a useful one, and lord knows Story loves to discover exciting new kinds of injuries.

Jon Becker: To be clear, there are definitely “degrees of expendability” so to speak. But even if you’re not counting much on Campbell (and it sounds like he’s more of an OF now anyway) my reasoning was more that they’d be getting Literally Ketel Marte back in the question that I answered and would still have Durbin and IKF. I didn’t mean to imply Mayer is movable in a deal for just anyone.

Lionelsmirk: Who is the Dodgers opening day 2b?

Jason Martinez: Even though they’ll be facing a RHP (Merrill Kelly) and I have Hyeseong Kim listed as the 2B vs RHP, I’m going to guess that Miguel Rojas gets that start. I believe he announced that this will be his last season and he just had one of the biggest hits in Dodgers history (which is crazy to say) so it would be well-deserved. I think he’ll mostly play vs LHP after that.

boog’s: Last year the O’s sat Colton Cowser frequently against lefties, but it wasn’t a strict platoon, as he had 92 PAs against righties and 268 against lefties. You currently have him listed as a platoon L, but who is the R partner? Jorge Mateo is gone, so is Cows really in a platoon this year?

Jon Becker: You can see how teams line up vs. lefties in the Platoon Lineups view, so you no longer have to guess how the defense would realign against lefties. Even if Westburg is out, Alexander could still play CF against lefties with Mayo at third against both righties and lefties.

Closers: Between Edwin Uceta, Robert stephenmson, and Jose Ferrer, who’s going to get the most save and holds?

Jason Martinez: None has a completely clear path to save chances at the moment, but I’d probably go with Stephenson. Current projection … Stephenson (15), Uceta (12), Ferrer (3)

If healthy, Stephenson should have the edge vs veteran guys like Yates, Romano, and Pomeranz. But we also don’t know how he’ll look. He’s barely pitched in 2 seasons. And it sounds like Joyce is on track to return sometime in the 1st half. 15 saves might be best-case scenario.

Uceta is getting checked out for shoulder discomfort so his chances could be gone if he misses more than a couple months. He was a leading candidate but with plenty of competition between Griffin Jax, Garrett Cleavinger, and Bryan Baker.

Mariners relied heavily on Muñoz last season. Unless their philosophy changes, Ferrer will probably only get occasional chances (5-10 saves max).

Interested person: Do you think furthering draft/IFA penalties could be an effective way to control high spending clubs instead of a salary cap? I have to think the Dodgers are too smart to punt the draft every year so they can pay for top talent via FA

Jon Becker: Yeah, I think in the absence of a hard cap/floor system — and my opinion has been and will continue to be that I’ll believe one has any real chance of happening when I see it — we’ll just see continued harshening of penalties for going over the various CBT lines. “Your top pick goes back ten spots” isn’t really that big of a deterrent when there are countless incidents of draftees outperforming guys they got drafted behind

NRI (to clarify): Wondering if you have any favorite “non-prospect” NRI guys…

Jason Martinez: Full list here, sortable by age, service time, projected PA/IP … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/opening-day-tracker?status=n…

So many relievers who have been really good at one time. Maybe for 1 season before an injury and then forgotten. For example … Adbert Alzolay, Gregory Santos, Trevor Stephan.

But I think I’d go with Walker Buehler, partly because he plays for my favorite team now but mostly because he’s probably the only NRI starting pitcher who has the ability (if he can figure things out) to be much more than a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Will: Help me make sense of the Nationals’ waiver claim of Joey Wiemer. They already had too many OFs with Wood, Crews, J. Young, Lile and Hassell all competing for playing time. What’s the logic there, especially when looking at their awful infield roster options?

Jon Becker: My guess is that the plan is to try to sneak him through waivers if he doesn’t play well enough in spring to get a spot on the opening day roster. They’ve certainly got a logjam out there (and still no real first baseman…) but it’s not as if the back of the 40-man is deep anyway, might as well see what he can do.

bkgeneral: Is the Reds OF deep enough to get closer to 90 than 80 wins?

Jason Martinez: Sure. Projections for their main group (Friedl, Marte, Bleday, Benson, Myers) aren’t bad at all. Just an average group. If that holds up, the Reds are talented enough elsewhere to win that division with 87+ wins. But they could also be bad enough that the Reds are a sub-.500 team. They need Friedl to stay healthy again. Need Marte to take a big step forward and they need Bleday to be closer to his 2024 version than 2025. Benson is always hot and cold so Francona just needs to optimally manage his playing time.

Chris: What do you think happens in Brewers rotation? Does Sproat or Henderson make it?

Jon Becker: The way I see it, Woodruff, Priester, and Misiorowski (assuming his command hasn’t totally backslid) have three spots locked down and then it’s two spots for a whole bunch of guys, with Patrick probably having a leg up for a spot and Sproat, Henderson, Gasser, Harrison, Drohan among those fighting for what could be just one spot. I don’t think who wins the last spot is a huge deal, they’ll cycle through a bunch of starters as the year goes on and I’d expect everyone I listed to make an impact.

Ryno: The Rays are always a tough team to figure. Even split fair to project between Walls and Williams? What is it going to take to get Seymour in the rotation with Matz and Martinez making actual money?

Jason Martinez: I currently have Williams with 434 PA and Walls with 238 PA (as a SS). Projected playing time here … https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=12

And in the case of Williams, I’m expecting the Rays to be cautious with when they call him up again since he struggled badly last season. So 434 PA is assuming he’s called up sometime in June to be the starting SS for the remainder of the season. We’ll see how things play out. Will be interesting to see if Ben Williamson gets a look at SS. Sounds like he’ll get a lot of time at 2B vs LHP.

One of the reasons why Martinez is so valuable is that he has been able to seamlessly bounce back and forth between starting and relieving and has not been on the IL since returning to the majors (4 seasons ago, I think). So that gives the Rays the ability to move him to the ‘pen in a scenario where everyone is healthy and a young pitcher like Seymour or Boyle is dominating and deserves a look in the majors. Best-case scenarios are rare with pitching staffs but having someone like Martinez gives them flexibility.

Rule 5: Got any favorites among rule 5 guys this season?

Jon Becker: I’m a sucker for R.J. Petit, just because he’s a massive dude and I’m a big fan of extreme players by any definition of the word “extreme.” Carter Baumler should also have a good shot to make the Rangers’ bullpen.

g4: Padres have made some keen depth moves of late. You buying a wild card berth for them this year?

Jason Martinez: Yep. Still need more to go right than wrong for them to get into that WC range (88-92 wins). But I do think the roster is very good and the depth is better than in previous seasons. Bullpen still looks like a strength. A full season of Laureano (last year’s version) could be huge. Merrill staying healthy and bouncing back will be huge. King-Pivetta-Musgrove can be a strong 1-2-3 in the playoffs. They need one other SP to step up, whether that’s Vasquez, Buehler, Marquez, or even someone like Marco Gonzales. Can’t expect 90 starts and 500+ innings from King-Pivetta-Musgrove. Despite the additions (Canning, Marquez, Buehler), it’s still an area of concern over 162 games.

Jay: With early season injuries on LAD, do you think they’ll move Mookie around or leave him alone at SS? Him losing OF & 2B are making my keeper decision much more difficult…

Jon Becker: Don’t think so. They made very clear with every injury last year that he wasn’t moving off SS, and I certainly don’t expect Edman being out for a little bit of the season to change their plans there. If anyone’s going to move around in response to injuries, it’ll be Edman himself once he’s back.

Ding a ling: Has Dillon Dingler learned how to hit? There’s a huge variance between what he did last year and what RR projects him to do this year.

Jason Martinez: Projection systems aren’t going to assume he’s that good again (109 wRC+) because it was only one season and the BB/K rates weren’t good. Most have him slightly below average (96-98 wRC+), which is still fine for what the Tigers need him to be. But you never know. Could be much better or much worse. That’s why having a veteran like Jake Rogers as the backup is important.

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. Thanks for joining us. Always a fun time. Baseball games this weekend!!!